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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Asbjoern Juul Petersen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I investigate the effects of offering conditional student aid to foreign students on their labor supply in Denmark. I utilize a natural experiment created by an EU court ruling in 2013, deciding that foreign students had the right to a monthly student aid subsidy on equal terms with Danish students provided they work 10-12 hours per week, alongside their studies. I hypothesize, that this ruling can potentially increase labor supply of foreign students along three margins: i) A higher inflow of foreign students, ii) An increased labor supply during studies, and iii) An increased labor supply after studies. I use administrative data from Statistics Denmark to test these hypotheses. While I find an increased labor supply of foreign students during their studies, my results do not point to an increased inflow of students nor to an increased labor supply after ended studies. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply, foreign students, student aid |
| JEL: | J22 J61 H52 |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2513 |
| By: | Alexandra Verlhiac; Julie Le Gallo; Marie Breuille; Sébastien Houde; Camille Grilvault |
| Abstract: | Migration is an adaptation strategy to climate change and the associated extreme climatic events that increase in intensity and frequency. However, frictions and barriers to move induce an intention gap, i.e., a difference between intended and actual residential migrations. One of the original features of our paper is to exploit innovative data, that is, user activity on the real-estate platform SeLoger (mobility intentions) and La Poste mail forwarding contracts (effective moves), to get day-to-day information on reactions induced by a specific extreme event, and to compute a migration intention gap. We evaluate the impact on these three outcomes of a geographically and temporally well-defined extreme event, the unusually destructive forest fires in the Landes (France) in the summer of 2022. We build a control group similar to municipalities affected by these forest fires with a matching method and estimate difference-in-differences models. Our results show that this event both affected positively intentions and negatively real moves. Particularly, the intention gap increases: if households intend to move, they do not necessarily take action. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risk; housing market; Real estate mar- ket platforms data; Residential Migration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_153 |
| By: | Giulia Bettin (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Silvia Mattiozzi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of severe manufacturing crises on internal migration patterns across Italian local labour markets (LLMs) between 2000 and 2019. Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of these shocks on the mobility of the working-age resident population. The results indicate a significant decline in net migration, primarily driven by an immediate reduction in inflows, which is nearly twice the size of the concurrent rise in outflows to other LLMs. We uncover substantial heterogeneity by citizenship, as foreign nationals are significantly less likely to migrate into affected areas following a crisis, while no systematic differences emerge by gender. The effects are more evident in district-based LLMs, moderately urbanized areas, and those located in Central and Northern Italy. The results are robust across alternative model specifications and difference-in-differences estimators. These findings highlight the uneven impact of manufacturing decline on internal migration patterns across both population groups and LLM characteristics. |
| Keywords: | internal mobility, manufacturing crises, mass lay-offs, local labour markets |
| JEL: | J61 J63 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:501 |
| By: | Jing Zou; Wang Baitao; Xiaoxuan Lan; Xiaojun Deng |
| Abstract: | While rural migrant housing tenure choice is a major policy concern, little is known about the association between hometown landholdings and rural migrants’ housing tenure choices. Using national micro data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), we examine the relationship between landholdings in places of origin and housing tenure choices by rural migrants in Chinese cities. By applying the probit model and the propensity score matching (PSM) method, the results clearly show that owning contracted land at hometown is positively associated with rural migrants’ housing tenure choices, while owning housing land in the place of origin is negatively associated with rural migrants’ housing tenure choices. When migrants own both types of land, the overall effect is negative. The possible mechanism is that contracted land affects rural migrants’ housing tenure choices through an economic effect, while housing land affects rural migrants’ housing tenure choice through emotional connection, which make migrants strengthen links with their hometown, interact more with fellow townspeople, and weaken their willingness to settle in the city, thus reduce the probability of buying houses. Further analysis shows that the relationship between hometown landholdings and housing tenure choices among rural migrants is highly heterogeneous across different generations and destination groups. The research conclusions of this paper are not only beneficial for improving China’s land and housing system but also have important reference significance for other countries. |
| Keywords: | economic effect; Hometown landholdings; housing tenure choices; Migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_213 |
| By: | Yilin Hou; Jinghua Qi; Yugang Tang |
| Abstract: | Mobility matches open housing markets. With constrained mobility and partially open housing markets, market responses reflect the constraints. We study this mechanism by examining disparity in access to public schools across socio-economic groups, focusing on properties near primary schools accessible to migrant students under social integration policies in a Chinese megacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we uncover complex spatial and market dynamics: while house prices close to ordinary primary schools remained relatively stable, house prices farther away declined markedly. This differential impact suggests the interaction between a potential "peer effect" and an "amenity effect." The rental rates showed little change from the migrant inflow and native flights. The reform also triggered a decrease in second-hand house sales, coupled with increased rental activities. This study highlights the effect of school enrollment policies on urban spatial dynamics, with significant implications for policymakers seeking to promote social integration in megacities. |
| Keywords: | housing market, rural-urban migration, constrained mobility, differential rights, tenants, homeowners, school enrollment |
| JEL: | H31 H52 R21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12263 |
| By: | Liming Yao |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research has explored housing affordability in China, with a focus on the factors contributing to housing difficulties. However, limited attention has been given to housing precarity, particularly among disadvantaged groups experiencing employment instability. Despite recent shifts in rural to urban migration trends in China, challenges such as restricted access to housing and stable employment have become increasingly prevalent for this group, exacerbated by persistent institutional barriers. While the interplay between housing precarity and job instability has been extensively studied in the international contexts, there remains a notable gap in understanding these dynamics among Chinese rural to urban migrants. This study seeks to address this gap by investigating how employment instability exacerbates housing precarity and how these challenges limit migrants' access to social welfare and hinder their social integration in urban destinations. Using data from Chinese household surveys and empirical estimations, the findings reveal that unstable employment, characterised by irregular income or precarious contracts, limits individuals’ ability to afford secure and adequate housing, perpetuating a cycle of housing and economic insecurity. The heterogeneity effect by educational achievement highlights that migrants with greater qualifications demonstrate increased likelihood in securing job opportunities, thereby reducing the adverse impacts on housing security. The findings enrich this field of study by offering China-specific insights, calling for policy attention to address the housing and labour challenges for rural to urban migrants. |
| Keywords: | Housing Policy; Housing precarity; Job instability; Rural to urban migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_86 |
| By: | Masahiro ENDOH; Toshiyuki MATSUURA; Akira SASAHARA |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effect of import shocks from China on population movement within and across regional employment zones in Japan based on Japanese census data from the 1990s to the 2010s. This effect was estimated for eight population groups defined by combinations of age and gender: the total population, and those aged 15–29, 30–44, and 45–59 by age group, and males and females by gender. Increases in imports from China had no significant effect on population movements within commuting zones or on net outflows from zones, but they significantly reduced both inflows to and outflows from zones, suggesting that import shocks tend to suppress inter-regional migration. The effect was observed across all age groups and for both men and women. Estimates indicate that regional differences in import shocks lowered both inflow and outflow rates. The magnitude was generally moderate compared with the actual ratios, but inflow migration of young women was relatively strongly suppressed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25108 |
| By: | Salvatore Viola (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Ernest Miguelez (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Davide Consoli (Universitat Politècnica de València - CSIC-UPV); François Perruchas (Universitat Politècnica de València) |
| Abstract: | One important factor in addressing climate change is the development and deployment of environmental-related, or green, technologies (GT). Environmental-related technologies are distinct, requiring specific conditions to be developed which vary depending on their relative level of technological maturity. Recent studies have focused on the role of migrant inventors in creating these conditions and spurring regional diversification into new technological domains. Regional diversification helps regions avoid lock-in and even escape fossil fuel dependencies. While the contribution of migrants to science and innovation is well documented, less attention has been given to migrants and diversification, especially in the case of GT and along the technological life cycle. In this study, we investigate the role of US-based migrant inventors in regional GT diversification using patent data from the USPTO between the year 1990 and 2012. We find that migrant inventors are positively associated with regional GT diversification, partly as a result of their previous patenting experience as well as the specializations of their countries of origin. With regard to the technological life cycle, while geographically diffused technologies rely on corresponding inventor experience, emergent technological diversification benefits from inventors from specialized countries. These findings highlight the bridging role that migrant inventors in international knowledge transfer and their importance in regional diversification in particular environmental-related technologies. |
| Keywords: | Regional Diversification; Green Technology; Immigration; Technological Life Cycle JEL classification:O33; Q55; J61; R11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202508 |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici); Francesca Centofanti (Università di Roma Tor Vergata); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the migration trajectories of young individuals born in Southern Italy who moved to the North between 2011 and 2014. Using longitudinal microdata and discretetime competing risks models, we examine whether these internal migrants are more likely to return to the South or emigrate abroad. Results reveal a strong educational gradient: highly educated individuals are significantly more likely to use the North as a springboard for international migration, while less-educated individuals tend to return home. These findings shed light on the dynamic interplay between internal and international mobility, and the enduring challenges of brain drain in the Mezzogiorno. |
| Keywords: | Migration trajectories, Mezzogiorno of Italy, Competing Risk Models |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00073 |
| By: | Romashchenko, Taras |
| Abstract: | In this working paper I focus on the critical demographic situation in Ukraine caused by the 2022 Russian invasion, which threatens the prospects of post-war recovery and socio- economic revival. By and large, I argue for the need to develop and implement nationwide repatriation programmes targeting Ukrainian refugees based on economic (investment) incentives that may be effective in the context of the country of origin. Drawing on desk research of previous return scenarios in some post-conflict countries and a series of in- depth interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Austria and Germany, I launch into this discussion by outlining a conceptual framework for the voluntary return of forced migrants to Ukraine. These include: financing the restoration of destroyed housing for refugees and providing them with land plots for independent reconstruction, payment of significant financial assistance upon return, targeted grants to forced migrants for business development in Ukraine, financial incentives enhancing social welfare particularly for families with children and launching powerful investment projects with the participation of foreign capital. Then I deal with potential challenges that could significantly complicate the process of mass re-emigration. These include: the ongoing active hostilities, the conflict of economic interests between Ukraine and host countries (the case of Germany is considered), the socio-economic collapse of the homeland implying the lack of decently paid jobs in the country of origin, as well as inconsistent and often contradictory policy of the Ukrainian authorities towards returnees. I end with a number of policy suggestions which, if taken into account by the Ukrainian government, could increase the likelihood of voluntary return of forced migrants to Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | forced migrants, refugees, economic incentives, investments, repatriation, return, challenges, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:331557 |
| By: | Wenli Li; Yichen Su |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the significance of migration in evaluating the welfare impacts of remote work. By analyzing individual location history data, we first document an increase in net migration towards suburbs and smaller cities in the US since 2020. We demonstrate that the migration wave has been disproportionately fueled by high-income individuals, who were more likely to move due to remote work. Consequently, regions with substantial in-migration observed the greatest rise in housing expenses. This also led to changes in local demand for services and associated employment. Employing a stylized welfare accounting framework, we show that migration mitigated the increase in housing cost burdens for both high- and low-income groups, with the advantages being greater for low-income individuals. Conversely, dispersed job growth, as a result of migration away from major urban centers, curtailed the increase in job accessibility, especially for high-income groups. Factoring in the spatial impacts of migration on housing costs and job accessibility, the welfare inequality surge related to remote work is considerably tempered. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Sorting; Migration; Housing Cost; Employment; Inequality; Remote Work; WFH |
| JEL: | R2 R3 D6 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102079 |