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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Steven F. Lehrer; Luke Rawling |
| Abstract: | Immigrant integration is a central issue in policy debates, with wage assimilation serving as a key indicator of immigrants’ economic success. Using matched employer–employee data from Canada, we study how access to higher-paying firms affects the economic assimilation of immigrants. Immigrants are disproportionately concentrated in lower-paying firms, accounting for much of the observed inequality. Nearly half of this sorting occurs across industries, and both firm- and industry-level wage gaps stagnate after eight years, suggesting that further assimilation reflects human capital accumulation rather than improved firm access. Importantly, these disparities persist after controlling for estimates of worker skill, indicating barriers to high-paying firms rather than differences in human capital. The analysis further shows that Canada’s post-2015 immigration policy reforms significantly improved immigrant outcomes: the initial wage gap narrowed by 25–35%, with roughly half of the improvement attributable to better allocation into higher-paying firms. Taken together, the findings highlight the critical role of firm sorting and its interaction with immigration policy in shaping the economic integration of immigrants. |
| JEL: | J31 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34462 |
| By: | Nordin, Martin (Agrifood Economics Centre and Department of Economics, Lund University); Bergh, Andreas (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines income and employment outcomes for immigrants in Sweden’s most immigrant-dense neighbourhoods between 1998 and 2022. While relative employment among immigrants has improved, relative incomes in these neighbourhoods have stagnated or declined. The most plausible explanation for the persisting income gap and the shrinking employment gap between immigrant-dense and other neighbourhoods is that immigrants in immigrant-dense neighbourhoods are increasingly channelled into non-standard employment. If we look at all immigrants, regardless of where they live, gaps between immigrants and natives are shrinking, both in terms of income and employment. Reconciling these patterns, we show that individuals in immigrant-dense neighbourhoods who enter employment are more likely to relocate to other areas. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant integration; Labour market outcomes; Non-standard employment; Immigrant-dense neighbourhoods |
| JEL: | J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1540 |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | This study presents the first evidence, to our knowledge, of the effects of the surge in interior immigration apprehensions in 2025 in the United States on student academic performance using detailed student-level administrative records from Florida. We find evidence that immigration enforcement reduced test scores for both U.S.-born and foreign-born Spanish-speaking students while also reducing the likelihood that these students are involved in disciplinary incidents in schools. Both of these effects are more pronounced for students in middle and high schools. |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34452 |
| By: | Braulio Britos; Manuel A. Hernandez; Danilo Trupkin |
| Abstract: | International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration. Simulations suggest that, reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers. Lower distortions would similarly boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1% and raise welfare by 3.4%. An analysis at the sub-national level reveals that high-distortion areas are more isolated and exhibit less financial penetration and government presence. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural distortions; Emigration; Labor mobility; Productivity; Welfare |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/233 |
| By: | So Yoon Ahn; Darren Lubotsky |
| Abstract: | As cross-border marriages rise, many governments have tightened rules on who can marry across borders, often in the name of promoting integration. Cross-border couples tend to have high divorce rates, which hinders successful assimilation. This paper provides the first evidence on how restrictive marriage migration policies affect family outcomes of migrants. We exploit a 2014 reform in South Korea that introduced pre-entry requirements for marriage visas, with language proficiency as the key component. Using rich administrative and survey data, we show that the reform led to a sharp temporary decline in cross-border marriages, improved migrants’ language skills, and increased educational attainment among both migrants and their Korean spouses. Comparing marriage cohorts immediately before and after the reform cutoff date, we find that cumulative divorce rates fell by 37% in the first 12 months and by 12% in the first 48 months, primarily due to language-based selection rather than demographic factors. Our evidence indicates that improved communication enhanced marital surplus and highlights the potential positive impact of selective admission policies that target civil and cultural assimilation. |
| JEL: | J12 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34458 |
| By: | Landersø, Rasmus; Karlson, Kristian Bernt (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies intergenerational educational mobility among immigrants and descendants in Denmark for cohorts born between 1965 and 1990. At first glance, the data suggests that immigrants experience higher mobility than native Danes, but this pattern is driven by low coverage and poor data quality of parental education information in administrative registers. Among immigrants with the most reliable data, mobility patterns closely resemble those of natives. Auxiliary analyses using representative survey data corroborate this finding. Moreover, including immigrants in population-wide mobility estimates—given their artificially high relative mobility—attenuates trends in estimated mobility, especially for cohorts born in the 1980s. |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sq6e3_v1 |
| By: | Gaurav Khanna |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rise of high-skill migration from Asia to the United States over the past three decades and its consequences for both sending and receiving economies. Between 1990 and 2019, migrants from five Asian countries—India, China, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines—accounted for over one-third of the growth in US software developers and a quarter of the increase in scientists, engineers, and physicians. Drawing on census microdata, visa records, and administrative sources, I show how US demand for talent in information technology, higher education, and healthcare interacted with Asia’s demographic and educational transformations to generate this migration boom. Policy reforms (notably the H-1B, F-1, and J-1 visa programs) and sectoral shifts—such as the internet revolution, declining public support for universities, and aging-related healthcare demand—created persistent needs for foreign students and workers. Asian economies were uniquely positioned to meet this demand through rapid tertiary expansion, strong STEM institutions, English proficiency, and diaspora networks. These inflows boosted US innovation, entrepreneurship, and service-sector productivity while fostering “brain gain” and “brain circulation” in Asia. Together, these trends reveal how talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy. |
| JEL: | J24 J60 O34 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34449 |
| By: | Viollaz, Mariana; Laguinge, Luis; Moroz, Harry |
| Abstract: | Labor markets in Central America and the Dominican Republic face limited direct impacts from technological advancements compared to developed countries. However, substantial migration flows to high-income countries, particularly the United States, mean that the impacts of technological change do not stop at country borders. During the past 50 years, recent migrants from both Central America and the Dominican Republic and other countries, like US nonmigrant workers, have shifted out of production jobs requiring (automatable) routine manual and cognitive skills. Although recent non–Central America and the Dominican Republic migrants and US nonmigrants transitioned to higher-skilled work intensive in nonroutine cognitive and interpersonal tasks (for example, management), recent migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic shifted toward jobs intensive in nonroutine manual tasks (for example, construction) and, to a lesser extent, in nonroutine interpersonal tasks (for example, serving). In essence, migrants from other middle- and high-income countries have benefited from the same technology-skill complementarity as nonmigrant US workers, whereas migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic seem to have filled the lower-skilled jobs created alongside technological advancement. The low-skill bias of migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic suggests greater vulnerability to disruption from artificial intelligence and mobile robotics, but less from language models like ChatGPT. Closer analysis of US robot adoption between 2000 and 2019 shows no effect on total migration flows from Central America and the Dominican Republic but impacts on high-skilled flows between 2010 and 2019. US robot adoption in the early 2000s improved labor market outcomes for high-skilled migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic but in low-skilled, nonroutine occupations. Between 2010 and 2019, the demand expansion effect that seems to explain this improvement weakened. Robot adoption led to less demand for high-e ducated migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic during this latter decade. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11251 |
| By: | Colette Salemi; Sebastian Anti; Jonathan Rigberg; Karishma Silva; Johannes Hoogeveen |
| Abstract: | One in five refugees live in camps or camp-like settings, and three-quarters of encamped refugees are in sub-Saharan Africa. No reliable public data has systematically tracked camp locations, operations, or populations over time. To address this, we introduce the African Refugee Camps Dataset (ARCD), a geospatial panel dataset. We describe its creation and use ARCD to analyze major trends over 25 years. We then show two applications combining ARCD with complementary data. First, we assess spatial features of camp locations compared to stratified random sites. Camps align with logistical guidelines—flat terrain, moderate vegetation—but are often near borders, protected areas, and far from provincial capitals. Second, we estimate the effect of camp openings on forest and vegetation cover using a differences-in-differences approach. Camp establishment reduces forest cover by 1–2 percentage points within two years, largely due to land clearing for shelter, infrastructure, and roads. |
| Keywords: | deforestation, geospatial data, refugee camps, spatial analysis, sub-saharan africa |
| JEL: | C81 F22 J15 O18 O55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:442 |
| By: | Dahab Aglan |
| Abstract: | After the end of their conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Iraqi government initiated a policy to close all camps across Iraq housing individuals affected by conflict and facilitate their return to their areas of origin. At these areas of origin, millions of internally displaced people (IDPs) were also displaced by the ISIL conflict and already living outside of the camps, meaning both groups now co-exist outside of the camps. Using a novel dataset on movements of camp residents from closed camps, I leverage district-level variation in the population shares of inflows from the closed camps to estimate their effects on the welfare of IDP households already living outside the camps. Fearing ISIL-related stigma and targeting, inflows from the camps may not disclose their movements, while others faced barriers to returning to their areas of origin and moved to other districts. To overcome the resulting endogeneity in the inflows from camps, I use an instrumental variables strategy which leverages policy-driven inflows from closed camps while being orthogonal to local district conditions. Contrary to the debate on the camp closures policy, I do not find evidence that overall, inflows from camps affect the welfare of IDP households already living outside of camps. The difference in characteristics between inflows from the camps and IDP households receiving them outside of the camps appears to primarily mitigate the effects of the policy. However, compared to male- headed IDP households outside of camps, female-headed IDP households are more vulnerable to the inflows, highlighting the necessity of tailored policy interventions to address their specific welfare needs, especially their access to healthcare. |
| Keywords: | camps, conflict, idps, internal displacement, islamic state, welfare |
| JEL: | D74 I30 J15 J18 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:443 |
| By: | Keyu Xie; Wang Chongyu; Yumou Wang |
| Abstract: | The hukou system overhaul started in 2014 has reduced barriers to household mobility in China. The overhaul has increased labor mobility from rural to urban areas and across cities, which results in differential impacts on different cities' urban housing prices (""housing prices""). The differences in the urban population control and talent attraction policies in different cities amplify the differential impact. This study investigates the impact of policy implementation in different cities on housing prices. In particular, the study aims to examine the differential impacts on housing prices in mega and non-mega cities. The former has stringent control on the urban population even after the overhaul, while the barriers to household mobility in the latter are significantly reduced. The household movement after the overhaul is also affected by competition for talent in cities. The study conjectures that the hukou system overhaul has positive housing prices due to the growth in the urban population in the urban area. The effect is expected to be faster and stronger in mega cities despite the stringent control in these cities due to more job and business opportunities and the ability of these cities to attract high-income and wealthy households. For the non-mega cities, the impact of the strategy on housing prices is expected to be weaker than those in mega cities since these non-mega cities are less attractive in terms of job and business opportunities. The effects of the hukou system overhaul in these cities are primarily the result of rural-to-urban migration. Therefore, within non-mage cities, an increase in housing demand is anticipated to result from rural-to-urban migration. The impact of these migration on housing prices is likely to be much bigger in mega-cities due to their stringent control of the urban population and the policy of attracting high-income and wealthy talents, most of which are from urban areas in other cities rather than from rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Housing Prices; Policy; population mobility; Urban |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_258 |
| By: | Perez, Ana Maria; Rozo, Sandra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the early implementation of Ethiopia’s refugee work rights policy, with a focus on the issuance of permits that enable refugees to engage in economic activities. Building on significant legal and institutional advances under the 2019 Refugee Proclamation and subsequent directives, the analysis explores how these reforms are being operationalized in practice. Using a mixed-methods approach, combining document review, administrative data analysis, and semi-structured interviews, the paper identifies both progress and remaining challenges. Permit issuance has increased since the adoption of detailed operational guidance in 2024, reflecting the Government of Ethiopia’s commitment to operationalizing its progressive legal framework and ensuring that refugees can exercise their right to work. However, take-up remains modest, with about 5.2 percent of the working-age population holding a permit. Preliminary evidence suggests that coordination gaps, limited subnational capacity, low awareness among refugees and employers, and disincentives to formalize in a largely informal labor market are contributing to the low take-up. The paper offers policy suggestions, grounded in the Ethiopian context and emerging evidence, to help translate legal commitments into improved labor market outcomes for refugees. |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11254 |
| By: | Francis M. Dillon; Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Andrew J. Wang |
| Abstract: | Immigrant students who attend U.S. colleges are disproportionately employed in either large firms—especially multinationals—or small firms and self-employment. Using linked Census and longitudinal employment data, we trace the jobs taken by college students in 2000 during the 2001-20 period and evaluate four mechanisms shaping sector and firm size placement: geographic clustering, degree specialization, firm capabilities/visas, and ethnic self-employment specialization. Degree fields predict large firm and MNE placement, while ethnic specialization explains small firm sorting. Immigrant students who remain in the U.S. earn more than their native peers, suggesting the segmentation reflects productive sorting rather than blocked opportunity. |
| JEL: | F22 F23 F66 I23 J61 L26 M13 M16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34440 |
| By: | Hett, Valeriia (SFM - Swiss Forum for Migration and Population Studies) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland activated temporary collective protection (Status S) in March 2022 to respond to the large-scale displacement caused by the war in Ukraine. This exceptional measure, aligned with the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, provided immediate access to residence, employment, education and social support, while deliberately remaining temporary in nature. However, the ongoing and protracted nature of the conflict requires consideration of future steps beyond temporary protection. This article develops a conceptual two-stage model adapted to Swiss context. Phase 1 (2025-2027) focuses on facilitating gradual transitions into existing residence categories, which will strength integration and reduce the risks of institutionalised temporariness. Phase 2 (from 2027 onwards) underscores voluntary, safe and dignified return, where possible, in addition to residual protection for those who cannot be repatriated. The proposed framework aims to reconcile humanitarian obligations, integration policies and long-term sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gh6b3_v2 |
| By: | Muhumad, Abdirahman A. |
| Abstract: | Cuts and reductions in international humanitarian aid, driven by shifting political priorities in major donor countries and an increasing number of displacements, are leaving hundreds of thousands of communities in the Global South at risk. The Somali Regional State in Ethiopia exemplifies the severe impact of these funding cuts, as vulnerable communities are now confronted with shrinking external support for basic needs. In this context, diaspora groups and networks are a key source of support to their communities. Their contributions extend beyond individual remittances, encompassing collective emergency relief, and development support such as education, water and health for displaced and other crisis-affected people. This policy brief elaborates on the role of diaspora networks in leveraging home and host country community networks to fill the gaps in areas where aid and government services fall short. However, despite their impact, diaspora groups face barriers to maximising their potential. Among these are a lack of enabling policy and institutional frameworks, complex state-diaspora relations, and a lack of formal structures among the diaspora networks. All this can limit the scope, effectiveness and capacities of diaspora support to communities back home. As a result, the following policy recommendations for the Ethiopian federal government and the government of the Somali Regional State, along with their development partners, are put forward in this brief to enhance the potential of the Ethiopian-Somali diaspora: Create enabling policy and institutional frameworks at regional and local levels that recognise and support the collective engagement of the diaspora with crisis response and recovery of vulnerable communities. This includes one-stop liaison units at the regional and local levels to minimise the bureaucracy and streamline diaspora contributions, incentivising diaspora-funded initiatives and ensuring inclusive consultations with the diaspora to ensure the effectiveness of these institutional and policy frameworks. Establish an umbrella association that represents the interests of the diaspora in the Somali Region and provides a range of supportive services to the diaspora that will enhance their engagements in emergency response, recovery and development. Facilitate exchange, partnerships and collaborations between diaspora-led and diaspora-supported associations and networks, national and local authorities, and international actors to maximise the reach and effectiveness of diaspora-led initiatives. Expand the evidence base on the various forms of collective support of the diaspora networks and associations to better understand the scale, impact and best practices for informing planning and programming to enhance diaspora support. |
| Keywords: | Diaspora, aid cuts, humanitarianism, development cooperation, Somali region, Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:331222 |