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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Rhea Gupta; Chandana Kularatne; Mr. Dirk V Muir; Mr. Pedro C Rodriguez; Mr. Li Zeng |
| Abstract: | Afghanistan has endured decades of war and political turmoil, leading to repeated waves of displacement (refugees and internally displaced persons) and emigration. This paper documents key stylized facts of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis, assesses its macroeconomic impacts from a regional perspective using the IMF’s FSGM model, and considers policies to address the crisis. It underscores the need for a holistic and coordinated approach to achieve a durable solution. With international support serving as a critical catalyst, well-designed reforms in both Afghanistan and host countries (Iran and Pakistan) could yield a win-win outcome. |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan; Iran; Pakistan; refugees; internally displaced persons; labor migrants |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/176 |
| By: | Xiao Hui Tai; Suraj R. Nair; Shikhar Mehra; Joshua E. Blumenstock |
| Abstract: | Seasonal migration plays a critical role in stabilizing rural economies and sustaining the livelihoods of agricultural households. Violence and civil conflict have long been thought to disrupt these labor flows, but this hypothesis has historically been hard to test given the lack of reliable data on migration in conflict zones. Focusing on Afghanistan in the 8-year period prior to the Taliban's takeover in 2021, we first demonstrate how satellite imagery can be used to infer the timing of the opium harvest, which employs a large number of seasonal workers in relatively well-paid jobs. We then use a dataset of nationwide mobile phone records to characterize the migration response to this harvest, and examine whether and how violence and civil conflict disrupt this migration. We find that, on average, districts with high levels of poppy cultivation receive significantly more seasonal migrants than districts with no poppy cultivation. These labor flows are surprisingly resilient to idiosyncratic violent events at the source or destination, including extreme violence resulting in large numbers of fatalities. However, seasonal migration is affected by longer-term patterns of conflict, such as the extent of Taliban control in origin and destination locations. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.00279 |
| By: | Díaz Rivera, Orlando Ángel |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variables are often used to identify the causal effect of immigration on labor market outcomes of natives. In this paper, I investigate the sensitivity of 2SLS estimators in the (common) case where a simultaneous shock occurs to the unit of interest and we do not explicitly account for it. For this purpose, I estimate the effects of both the Venezuelan immigration shock and the Peruvian emigration during the last decades on the labor market outcomes of Peruvian native stayers. Using shift-share instruments, I document positive effects of both immigration and emigration on employment rates, household income, and household expenditure (with emigration effects being about eight times larger). Reassuringly for the literature, even in a context of instruments correlated with the omitted flow the point estimates are shown to be robust to the inclusion of the omitted variable. |
| Date: | 2025–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:47870 |
| By: | Albarrán, Pedro (Universidad de Alicante); Robles, Antonio (Universidad de Alicante); Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | Colombia’s prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC’s 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of the ceasefire and the pre-conflict distribution of FARC presence across municipalities. Results show a substantial reduction in severe displacement episodes in affected areas, with effects that emerged gradually and persisted over time. These findings highlight the importance of stability and the effective implementation of peace agreements in mitigating FID and its far-reaching consequences. |
| Keywords: | ceasefire, armed conflict, forced internal displacement, FARC, Colombia |
| JEL: | D74 R23 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18087 |
| By: | José Alcalde (IUDESP, University of Alicante); Matthias Dahm (School of Economics, University of Leicester) |
| Abstract: | Refugee resettlement is one of the most important challenges of our time. We consider a set of host States required to collectively provide a given number of resettlement places. International cooperation must be voluntary, but host States can be compensated. We first show that a market approach can generate sufficient resettlement places. However, there are pervasive opportunities for manipulation. We reformulate the Ausubel (2004) auction as a procurement auction for resettlement places, but allow for the possibility that procurement costs are covered by the participants in the auction (Cramton et al., 2013). This Compensation Mechanism determines a (heterogeneous) set of transfers in exchange for resettlement places provided and allows host States to specialise in providing places or finance resettlement in other States. We show that sincere bidding is a dominant strategy and that it leads to efficient allocations of the required number of places. |
| Keywords: | Asylum Seekers; Refugees; Resettlement Places; Refugee Quotas; Burden-Sharing; Responsibility-Sharin |
| JEL: | D44 D47 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:qmetal:021526 |
| By: | David, Alexandra; Terstriep, Judith; Freiling, Jörg |
| Abstract: | A 'sense of belonging' is essential for migrant entrepreneurs (MEs), influencing not only their integration but also their success within entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs). This concept transcends mere economic involvement, delving into critical psychosocial dimensions often overlooked in traditional EE research. The study highlights how a robust sense of belonging significantly enhances business success for MEs. In contrast, its absence can lead to issues such as 'ecosystem hopping'. The interim findings call policymakers and practitioners to prioritise belonging in ecosystem design, fostering environments that are equitable and supportive, thus improving the well-being and business outcomes for diverse entrepreneurial communities. |
| Keywords: | migrant entrepreneurship, sense of belonging, community, entrepreneurial ecosystems |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatfor:324900 |
| By: | Dohee Kwon (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short-run and long-run impacts of immigrants on local amenities in South Korea using data on 229 municipalities from 2010 to 2019. Specifically, this paper attempts to investigate the differential effects of ethnic Korean and non-ethnic-Korean immigrants by exploiting the unique case of ethnic return migration in Korea. The results suggest that ethnic Korean immigrants have a negative effect on cultural facilities in the long run, while non-Korean immigrants have no effect on local amenities. It is also found that an inflow of ethnic Korean immigrants does not significantly affect the inflow of native Koreans, while 10 additional non-Korean immigrants lead to a net inflow of one to two native Koreans into the municipality. |
| Keywords: | immigration, amenities, South Korea |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-018 |