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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the two-way relationship between international migration and political regime change, emphasizing the potential for a feedback loop: political shifts influence migration patterns, and migration can, in turn, affect political developments. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach and a dataset combining migration flows, regime quality indicators (CHRI), and measures of economic integration such as EU membership, the study identifies three key findings. First, substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can further weaken their institutions. Second, democratic decline tends to increase emigration, undermining a country's ability to a democratic institutional recovery. Third, international economic integration, particularly in our study, through EU accession—shapes how emigration responds to political change. |
| JEL: | F02 H7 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33793 |
| By: | Sandra Rozo; Grossman, Guy |
| Abstract: | Forced displacement has reached unprecedented levels, with more than 120 million individuals displaced globally as of 2024 due to conflict, violence, climate change, and human rights violations. These crises are increasingly protracted, characterized by low return rates, and demand a shift from hosting models solely funded through humanitarian aid to financially sustainable, medium- to long-term strategies. This VoxDevLit synthesizes quantitative research conducted between 2010 and 2024, focusing on studies that use experimental or quasi-experimental methods to examine (1) the impacts of forced displacement on host communities and (2) the effectiveness of policies designed to support both forcibly displaced populations and their hosts. Key insights from this body of work indicate that forced displacement inflows generally exert neutral effects on native employment and wages, although vulnerable native workers—particularly those in the informal sector—may initially face challenges. Investments in inclusive social protection services that benefit both displaced populations and host communities can alleviate pressures and foster social cohesion. Additionally, cash transfers enhance immediate well-being and are most effective in the medium run when paired with initiatives that promote the economic self-reliance of forcibly displaced populations. Granting refugees the right to work has demonstrated transformative impacts on economic and well-being outcomes, while also providing a financially sustainable solution for hosting refugees over the medium to long term. Finally, addressing the mental health challenges faced by forcibly displaced populations is critical to enable them to recover their lives. This review underscores the importance of transitioning from humanitarian aid to self-reliance models, closing policy implementation gaps, and tailoring interventions to local contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11123 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Ergasheva, Tanzila |
| Abstract: | Climate change and increased frequency of abnormal weather are becoming growing threats to people’s livelihood, including in Central Asia. These threats are particularly challenging in Tajikistan, the poorest country in the Central Asia region. Despite the fact that migration is prevalent and remittances account for a significant share of GDP, evidence is scarce as to whether the decision to migrate is driven by weather shocks, whether migration is used as mitigating tool against adverse weather shocks, and how much of the loss in welfare is actually mitigated by such migration. This study aims to narrow this knowledge gap by providing evidence based on a unique panel dataset from one of the poorest and agriculturally dependent regions in Tajikistan (Khatlon province), combined with a detailed set of various climate data. In doing so, we apply a novel approach through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to identify key weather shock variables among a vast set of potential variables associated with outmigration decisions in different districts. Our results show that different types of weather shocks are associated with outmigration decisions in different districts within the province, ranging from rainfall, temperatures, drought, and windspeed in different subperiods throughout the year. Regardless, more abnormal weather is almost universally associated with more outmigration, and outmigration significantly mitigates the potentially adverse effects on household consumption and food/nutrition security in the origin households. However, more abnormal weather in the origin location is also associated with reduced remittances per month per migrant sent to the origin location. Thus, the capacity of migration to mitigate against weather shocks is still limited. Combined with migration policies that increase net earnings during migration, supplementary support to enhance climate resilience in home locations, such as climate-smart agriculture and development of the non-farm sector, remains critical. |
| Keywords: | climate change; shock; migration; extreme weather events; agriculture; food security; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:175059 |
| By: | Sprengholz, Maximilian (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In Germany, immigrants of different origins have higher income poverty rates than natives to varying but substantial degrees. In this study, I examine nativity gaps in income poverty among heterosexual couple households (with and without children) in Western Germany and pair-wise compare households of native couples with households in which at least one partner is an immigrant, distinguishing between immigrants from Turkey, Poland, and the former Soviet Union. Building on a theoretical model of household poverty, I analyze how the nativity and gender-specific labor market disadvantages of partners accumulate at the household level, where they constrain labor income sufficiency given household needs and available transfers. I decompose poverty gaps using matching and entropy balancing techniques with respect to nativity differences in partners' work intensities and wages; I also consider differences in household size, children's labor income, and non-labor income. While all of these channels are relevant, inequality in male partners' wages is the most important factor overall, accounting for 23-37 % of the observed nativity poverty gaps by immigrant origin. For Turkish immigrant households, however, nativity disadvantages in the work intensity of male (23 %) and especially female (41 %) partners are most consequential, which play a comparatively minor role for the other origins. Notably, substantial poverty gaps would remain for each comparison even if both partners in immigrant households had the same work intensities as their native counterparts. |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ms6jn_v1 |
| By: | Francisca Castro; Tilman Brück; Wolfgang Stojetz; Hadi Jaafar |
| Abstract: | When refugees flee abroad, they carry the legacy of their traumatic experiences across borders. While there are over 43 million refugees worldwide, the long-term effects of conflict exposure on their well-being remain poorly understood. This paper examines how pre-displacement exposure to violent conflict and environmental stressors shapes the long-term social well-being of Syrian refugees in Jordan, focusing on life satisfaction, social trust, and social safety nets. Using representative survey data from refugees living in Jordan and conflict events, as well as remote sensing environmental data from Syria, we distinguish between exposure to conflict events and conflict fatalities, revealing distinct effects. While exposure to conflict events has no systematic impact on social outcomes, exposure to conflict fatalities significantly reduces life satisfaction and weakens social safety nets. These effects are critically mediated by mental health, with depressive symptoms significantly explaining the negative impact of conflict fatalities on life satisfaction. Our findings also highlight gendered dimensions: individuals living in female-majority households experience particularly severe declines in life satisfaction, whereas those in male-majority households show greater deterioration in social safety nets. Having experienced droughts before leaving Syria further amplifies the negative effects of conflict, particularly on social safety nets. These results highlight the importance of considering intersecting vulnerabilities due to gender, environmental stress, and conflict exposure when designing support systems for forcibly displaced populations. |
| Keywords: | climate, conflict, jordan, mental health, refugees, social well-being, syria |
| JEL: | D74 D91 F22 I12 I31 O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:431 |
| By: | Bryce Morsky |
| Abstract: | Many outputs of cities scale in universal ways, including infrastructure, crime, and economic activity. Through a mathematical model, this study investigates the interplay between such scaling laws in human organization and governmental allocations of resources, focusing on impacts to migration patterns and social welfare. We find that if superlinear scaling resources of cities -- such as economic and social activity -- are the primary drivers of city dwellers' utility, then cities tend to converge to similar sizes and social welfare through migration. In contrast, if sublinear scaling resources, such as infrastructure, primarily impact utility, then migration tends to lead to megacities and inequity between large and small cities. These findings have implications for policymakers, economists, and political scientists addressing the challenges of equitable and efficient resource allocation. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03384 |