|
on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Öztek, Abdullah Selim (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of immigration on crime in the context of the massive influx of Syrians to Türkiye, using comprehensive data that spans all stages of the judicial process—from prosecution to incarceration—and includes information on the nativity status of both perpetrators and victims. To isolate causal effects, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation technique, exploiting substantial exogenous variation in the migrant-to-native ratio that arises from the geographical proximity of Turkish provinces to Syrian governorates. The findings reveal a slight increase in total crime at the prosecution stage, while no significant effects are detected for criminal court cases or convictions. Moreover, natives experience increased victimization at the prosecution stage, while their involvement in criminal activities remains unchanged. In contrast, both the likelihood of committing a crime and being a victim of crime increase among immigrants. The analysis further suggests that immigrants may be crowding out natives in specific crime categories, such as smuggling. |
| Keywords: | suspects, crime, immigration, victimization |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 J68 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17885 |
| By: | Sardoschau, Sulin (Humboldt University Berlin); Gulino, Giorgio (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Masera, Federico (University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | How does media coverage of minorities affect their rule compliance? Using data from 800, 000 random audits at supermarket self-checkouts in Italy, we show that heightened refugee media coverage reduces under-reporting of items among shoppers born in major refugee-source countries, but not other migrants or natives. The effect is concentrated in the seven days following media exposure and is strongest when coverage is negative or highlights criminality. Results are not driven by changes in customer composition or perceived audit risk. Instead, our findings suggest that public scrutiny prompts minorities to counter negative stereotypes by increasing their compliance. |
| Keywords: | crime, identity, refugees, immigration, media, threat |
| JEL: | D74 J15 D83 Z10 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17888 |
| By: | Marchand, Katrin (RS: GSBE MORSE, RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: UNU-MERIT - MACIMIDE); Liagkas, Pavlos (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, EdIn); Smith, Dani; Wojnar, Aleksandra |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses a critical gap in migration literature by quantifying the opportunity cost of labour emigration for countries of origin within the European Union, using Greece and Poland as case studies from 2004 to 2019. Despite the growing policy and academic interest in the effects of emigration, existing research has largely overlooked its economic cost for sending countries. Building upon the model developed by Radonji? & Bobi? (2020), this study develops a framework to estimate the total opportunity cost of emigration, including direct costs of education, the opportunity cost of foregone productivity during education, fixed costs of emigration, loss of GDP contribution, and offsetting factors such as remittances and foregone social benefits. The findings reveal substantial economic costs: approximately €305 billion for Greece and €175 billion for Poland over the 16-year period, translating to annual per capita costs of €23, 268 and €7, 047, respectively. Despite a higher volume of Polish emigrants, Greece experiences a higher economic burden, primarily due to the higher emigration rates among highly educated individuals. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at reducing emigration outflows, facilitating return migration, and aligning education with labour market needs. The presented model offers a replicable and adaptable tool for policymakers and researchers to assess and address the cost of emigration in emerging and developed economies. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 O57 |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025015 |
| By: | Laurène Thil; Stella Sophie Zilian (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how atypical work, alongside other labour market conditions, affect intra-EU migration and vice versa in 17 EU countries from 2004 to 2019. Relative increases of part-time and self-employment shares in sending countries increase net migration, whereas relative increases in short fixed-term shares reduce net migration. Net migration shocks persistently reduce part-time share differentials, initially reduce self-employment share differentials and increase short fixed-term share differentials. Atypical work explains about one-fifth of net migration fluctuations five and ten years after a shock. The findings highlight the trade-off between internal (employment flexibility) and external (migration) labour market adjustments. |
| Keywords: | atypical employment; intra-EU mobility; pVAR; labour market adjustment |
| JEL: | C33 F22 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:263 |
| By: | Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12, 000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; migration; food security; health; displacement; livelihoods; market access; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resain:168432 |
| By: | Caroline Fry; Britta Glennon |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the role of coethnic advisor-student matching in U.S. Ph.D. programs in attracting, training and guiding immigrant talent into top jobs in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Using comprehensive administrative data on 1, 769 AI Ph.D. graduates from top U.S. programs, combined with their advisors’ profiles and post-Ph.D. employment outcomes, and complemented by original survey data, we document two new findings. First, immigrant students systematically match with coethnic thesis advisors at markedly higher rates than would be expected by chance. This matching is shaped by reputational spillovers, pre-Ph.D. contact, and preference for shared backgrounds. Second, immigrant students with coethnic advisors are more likely to enter high-quality industry jobs after graduation than their native counterparts. We find suggestive evidence that this is driven by access to industry internships, facilitated by these advisors' unique professional networks. Our findings reveal that universities, through their immigrant-origin faculty, act as critical conduits connecting global scientific talent to the U.S. innovation economy. An important organizational implication of our results is that disruptions to immigration may constrain firm-level access to talent and weaken the academic-to-industry pipeline. |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J24 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33782 |
| By: | Yaroshevskyi, Artem |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the transition to a green economy affects internal migration patterns across European Union regions. As carbon-intensive sectors decline due to decarbonization policies, certain regions experience structural economic changes that prompt labor reallocation and demographic shifts. Using a novel panel dataset at the NUTS-3 level (2011–2021), this paper estimates a series of random-effects models to assess how carbon-intensive regions differ in migration trends compared to unaffected areas. The analysis incorporates a range of socio-demographic and economic variables to test five hypotheses on the drivers of outmigration, including youth share, elderly population, regional wealth, and median male age. Results indicate that regions classified as “affected” by the green transition exhibit significantly higher outmigration rates. Moreover, interaction effects show that aging male populations amplify these migration trends, while other moderators—such as GDP per capita and youth share—have no significant impact. These findings contribute to the literature on just transitions by highlighting how demographic composition mediates the adverse effects of green restructuring. The paper emphasizes the need for targeted regional policies, particularly in aging and economically vulnerable areas, to ensure equitable outcomes of green economic transitions. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, internal migration, carbon-intensive regions, demographic structure, panel data, just transition, NUTS-3 regions, labor mobility. |
| JEL: | Q20 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124870 |
| By: | Richard Audoly; Roshie Xing |
| Abstract: | A puzzling feature of official U.S. employment statistics in recent years has been the increase in the gap between the nonfarm payroll and household employment numbers. This discrepancy is not trivial. From the end of 2021 though the end of 2024, net job gains in the payroll survey were 3.6 million larger than in the household survey. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we investigate one potential explanation for the emergence of this gap: a sharp rise in undocumented immigration during the post-COVID period that would be differentially reflected in the two surveys. We leverage industry-level data to study the relationship between our estimate of employment of likely undocumented migrants and the payroll-household employment gap. These data suggest that factors besides undocumented immigration likely contributed to the emergence of the gap between the two measures of U.S. employment. |
| Keywords: | employment gap; immigration; statistics |
| JEL: | E24 J6 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:100081 |
| By: | Lovakov, Andrey (HSE University) |
| Abstract: | The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a significant impact on international migration patterns, including a significant exodus of Russian-affiliated researchers. This study examines the scale, disciplinary impact, and geographic shifts of this migration wave by analyzing data from the Scopus database. Using changes in the most frequent country of affiliation as a proxy for migration, the results show a substantial decline in the net migration rate of Russian researchers from 2022 to 2024. Russia has been losing about 0.8% of its active researchers annually over this period. This brain drain wave affects almost all research fields. The most affected disciplines include Physics and Astronomy, Computer Science, and Mathematics, while Dentistry and Health Professions experienced comparatively smaller declines. Geographically, traditional academic destinations such as Germany, the United States, and Switzerland have absorbed the majority of emigrating researchers, while non-traditional destinations, such as Armenia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kazakhstan, are also becoming important. However, large academic systems such as China and India have not seen significant increases. The findings underscore that this unprecedented brain drain will have both short- and long-term consequences for Russian academia and global science. |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k8fbc_v1 |
| By: | Lin, Runze |
| Abstract: | Migrants moving from highly restrictive cultural environments to liberal societies often initiate and escalate engagement with formerly prohibited behaviors—such as gambling, alcohol consumption, or recreational drug use. However, existing theories of acculturation, coping, and rebound fail to adequately explain how such behaviors begin in the first place (the 0→1 transition), especially among individuals with no prior history of participation. This paper introduces a novel conceptual model that distinguishes between the psychological mechanisms of initiation (“Forbidden Fruit Effect”) and escalation (“Rebound Effect”) in the context of addictive consumption. The model argues that sudden removal of prohibition triggers symbolic desire, latent craving, and identity realignment, leading to behavior initiation. Once initiated, behavioral repetition may intensify due to a rebound dynamic—where loosened constraints facilitate overcompensation. Drawing from cross-disciplinary insights in consumer behavior, addiction studies, and migration theory, this dual-stage model fills a critical theoretical gap. It also accounts for cultural differences in perceived constraint (legal, religious, or communal), offering implications for public health and marketing ethics in immigrant-receiving societies. This contribution advances understanding of risk behavior adoption as a staged, culturally contingent process in global consumer culture. |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:94tq2_v1 |
| By: | Lidia Ceriani; Paolo Verme |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing numbers of forcibly displaced persons worldwide, many people living under conflict choose not to flee. Individuals face two lotteries - staying or leaving - characterized by two distributions of potential outcomes. This paper proposes to model the choice between these two lotteries using quantile maximization as opposed to expected utility theory. The paper posits that risk-averse individuals aim at minimizing losses by choosing the lottery with the best outcome at the lower end of the distribution, whereas risk-tolerant individuals aim at maximizing gains by choosing the lottery with the best outcome at the higher end of the distribution. Using a rich set of household and conflict panel data from Nigeria, the paper finds that risk-tolerant individuals have a significant preference for staying and risk-averse individuals have a significant preference for fleeing, in line with the predictions of the quantile maximization model. These findings are in contrast to findings on economic migrants, and call for separate policies toward economic and forced migrants. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.03405 |
| By: | Rueß, Stefanie (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | How do media representations of immigrants affect their access to public services? Though prior research links national news reporting and administrative decisions, little is known about regional variation, an important omission because regional media produces more local news. I argue that street-level bureaucrats are embedded within a regional news environment, where reporting shapes their perception of regional immigration patterns and influences their decisions on public service allocation—a dynamic I term the regional media bias mechanism. To examine this phenomenon, I combine state-level data on benefit reduction rates in Germany’s welfare program Citizen’s Benefit with regional newspaper articles (2010-2020). Leveraging topic modeling and panel data analysis, I show that regional narratives on positive aspects of immigration are associated with more favorable administrative outcomes for immigrants, whereas frames emphasizing financial burdens correspond with stricter treatment. These results highlight the critical role of regional media in shaping policy implementation. |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v7x83_v1 |
| By: | Roberto Dopeso-Fernández (Tecnocampus, Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Aleksander Kucel (Tecnocampus, Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Montserrat Vilalta-Bufí (Departament d'Economia, CREB, BEAT, Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide information on PhD graduates using the Spanish University Graduate Placement Survey from 2019. We analyze whether studying the PhD partially or fully abroad affects wages and the probability of being overeducated. When controlling for endogeneity of the decision to study abroad, we find that it is associated with higher wages. However, the effect of studying abroad on the probability of being overeducated is insignificant. Another result of this paper is that living abroad significantly increases the chances of having a high wage and a matched job. These results are important to understand the job opportunities of PhD holders in Spain and their job characteristics. |
| Keywords: | PhD mobility, wages, overeducation, Spain |
| JEL: | J24 I23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:472web |