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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Miriam Manchin; Alex Newnham; Elena Nikolova |
| Abstract: | We study how pre-industrial climate risk during 1500-1800 influenced historical bilateral inward migration and present-day international migration stocks in Europe. Using high-resolution data, we find that one standard deviation increase in historical precipitation decreases the share of today’s migrants in a given location by 0.48 percentage points and also negatively influences historical migration flows. The results only hold in historically rural locations and are driven by climate variability during growing season, suggesting that climate risk affected migration through agriculture. Our findings suggest that the persistent effect of historical climate risk on current migration patterns is through differences in historical prosperity. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Climate Risk, Historical Migration |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:503 |
| By: | Kilic, Tugce |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the economic structure of host regions shapes the labor market impacts of refugee inflows, focusing on the case of the Syrian refugee influx into Germany in 2014-2015. Utilizing a fuzzy difference-in-differences approach, the analysis introduces a novel measure of sectoral diversification to assess local absorptive capacity. The results show that sectoral diversification plays a significant role in moderating short-term labor market outcomes. Counties with less diversified employment structures experience greater adverse impacts on non-German workers, while more diversified regions are better able to absorb new arrivals and mitigate unemployment pressures. These results underscore the importance of considering local economic structures in the regional allocation of refugees and the design of integration policies. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Labor market, Asylum seekers, Syrian refugees, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J21 J61 C21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:319062 |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether, and to what extent, inter-provincial migration in China responds to real minimum wage disparities. To conceptualize this relationship, we extend the Harris-Todaro framework by incorporating minimum wages in both rural and urban areas. For the empirical analysis, we utilize an origin-destination matrix constructed from Hukou-linked migration data (2000-2020) and match it with interprovincial minimum wage differentials. To address endogeneity concerns, we estimate a gravity-type model with fixed effects and apply an instrumental variable strategy. The baseline results indicate that a 1% increase in real minimum wage disparity leads to a 1.05% increase in inter-provincial migration. IV estimates suggest that simple OLS correlations may understate this positive effect. We also find significant heterogeneity: migrants from less developed provinces are more responsive to wage differentials, particularly when moving toward more urbanized regions. These findings highlight the role of minimum wage policy in shaping internal labor mobility within a developing and regionally diverse economy. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; Internal migration; China; Regional wage disparities; Instrumental variable strategy |
| JEL: | J38 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-11 |
| By: | Songyun Shi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Silvia Loi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Objectives Despite often having better health at arrival, and at young ages, there is evidence that immigrants age at a faster pace than non-immigrants over the life course. One potential mediator in the relationship between migration background and health deterioration is loneliness. This study examines the direct impact of migration-related factors on mental and physical health trajectories, as well as their indirect effects through loneliness in the German context. Methods Using data from the 2012–2020 German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we apply a parallel process latent growth curve model (PPM) with mediation analysis to examine the long-term impact of migration background and age at migration on physical and mental health trajectories. We also explore the mediating role of loneliness in this relationship. The analysis is stratified by gender. Results Loneliness fully mediates the relationship between migration background and mental health, as immigrants are more likely to experience loneliness, which in turn leads to worse mental health. Immigrants who moved to Germany after age 18 are more likely to experience loneliness, resulting in poorer mental health. This mechanism is particularly pronounced among women. Discussion Loneliness contributes to mental health disparities between immigrants and non-immigrants. Women who migrated after age 18 are particularly vulnerable. This study presents an innovative approach to examining the mechanisms behind health disparities by migration background. Interventions targeted at reducing loneliness may help to reduce health disparities between immigrants and non-immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Germany, longitudinal analysis, mental health, migrants |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-015 |
| By: | Celia Melguizo (Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain); Juan A. Sanchis (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | People's choices about where to live and work have changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The media, as well as regional and urban literature, acknowledge that the 'urban exodus' phenomenon occurred concurrently with the pandemic disruptive effects. This study explores how migration patterns shifted at the municipal level in Spain during 2020, while also examining how the factors traditionally seen as population attractors have evolved over time. We analyse a range of demographic groups, distinguishing between internal migration within provinces and movement across provincial borders. Our findings indicate a clear change in migration trends: municipal size has become less relevant and labour market conditions have also diminished in importance in interprovincial migration, while municipalities with a higher concentration of secondary residences have become much more attractive. |
| Keywords: | Internal Migration, Cities, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | J61 R1 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2509 |
| By: | Meierrieks, Daniel; Pañeda-Fernández, Irene |
| Abstract: | This study explores the role of climate conditions in shaping return migration intentions among international migrants. Using original survey data of over 1, 000 first-generation migrants from West Africa living in Germany, we correlate observational data on temperature increases in the respondents' home regions in West Africa to their return migration intentions. Moreover, by means of a survey experiment, we investigate how informational cues about climate disasters in the migrants' origin countries might influence their desire to return home. We find that observed climate change in the form of warming does not affect return migration intentions, and neither do informational cues about climate risks that are provided in the survey experiment. Moreover, we find that differences in migrants' socioeconomic status, education or attachment to their home countries do not moderate the influence of climate change and disasters on return intentions. By contrast, in the survey experiment economic factors are found to play a decisive role: migrants are more inclined to return if job prospects in their home country improve, whereas favorable employment in Germany reduces return intentions. This latter finding provides some evidence that economic motivations rather than environmental concerns prominently shape return migration decisions. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht die Rolle klimatischer Bedingungen bei der Entstehung von Rückkehrabsichten internationaler Migrant*innen. Anhand originärer Umfragedaten von über 1.000 Migrant*innen der ersten Generation aus Westafrika, die in Deutschland leben, korrelieren wir Beobachtungsdaten zu Temperaturanstiegen in den Herkunftsregionen in Westafrika mit den Rückkehrabsichten der Befragten. Zudem untersuchen wir mittels eines Umfrageexperiments, wie Informationshinweise zu Klimakatastrophen in den Herkunftsländern der Migrant*innen deren Wunsch zur Rückkehr beeinflussen könnten. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der beobachtete Klimawandel in Form von Erwärmung keinen Einfluss auf die Rückkehrabsichten hat - ebenso wenig wie die im Experiment gegebenen Hinweise auf Klimarisiken. Auch Unterschiede im sozioökonomischen Status, Bildungsniveau oder der Bindung an das Herkunftsland der Migrant*innen beeinflussen den Zusammenhang zwischen Klimawandel bzw. Katastrophen und Rückkehrabsichten nicht. Im Gegensatz dazu spielen im Umfrageexperiment ökonomische Faktoren eine entscheidende Rolle: Migrant*innen zeigen eine höhere Rückkehrbereitschaft, wenn sich die Berufsaussichten im Herkunftsland verbessern, während günstige Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten in Deutschland die Rückkehrabsicht verringern. Letzteres deutet darauf hin, dass ökonomische Motive - und nicht Umweltaspekte - maßgeblich die Entscheidung zur Rückkehrmigration prägen. |
| Keywords: | Rückwanderung, Klimawandel, Klimakatastrophen, Umfrageexperiment, Deutschland, Westafrika, return migration, climate change, climate disasters, survey experiment, Germany, West Africa |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:318376 |
| By: | Degenhardt, Felix (University of Potsdam); Nimczik, Jan Sebastian (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT)) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether gig jobs in online food delivery (OFD) are a stepping stone for refugees entering the Austrian labor market. Our identification strategy combines the quasi-random assignment of refugees to Austrian regions with the expansion of gig firms across the country. The local availability of OFD jobs at the time of access to the labor market initially accelerates job finding among refugees. Subsequently, however, gig workers remain in low-paid, unstable jobs with low career prospects, while the employment rate of refugees without gig opportunities catches up. The local availability of gig jobs negatively affects human capital investments and job search behavior, even among refugees outside the gig economy. |
| Keywords: | employment restrictions, refugees, gig work, labor market integration |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J81 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17928 |
| By: | Thomas Ginn (Center for Global Development); Harrison Tang (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Policy for urban refugees in Kenya and Uganda is rarely at the forefront of national discussions, leaving important gaps that could potentially be addressed with engagement from civil society. Based on a series of key informant interviews, this policy paper provides a stocktake of recent shifts in policies, legislation, and practices impacting urban refugees in both countries since 2022. We document several changes, most notably the inclusion of urban refugees in Kenya’s national social security scheme and in local government councils in Kampala, but these initiatives are yet to be scaled. We recommend that organizations advocating on behalf of urban refugees focus directly on access to documentation and, more broadly, prioritize concrete objectives that are achievable under current law. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:358 |
| By: | Raahil Madhok; Frederik Noack; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Olivier Deschenes |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how agricultural production responds to the loss of agricultural labor during the process of urbanization and structural transformation. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration opportunities induced by urban income shocks, we show that agricultural households do not systematically replace lost labor with increased capital. Instead, they cultivate less land and lower their use of agricultural technology, reducing crop production. Resulting changes in land and crop prices induce non-migrant households to expand agricultural investments and production. In aggregate, market adaptation mitigates over three-fourths of the direct agricultural losses from urbanization. Spatial reorganization moves food production from land near urban areas toward more remote areas with lower emigration. |
| JEL: | J43 O13 O15 Q15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33854 |
| By: | Wang, Yifan; Wang, Chunbei; Holmes, Chanita |
| Abstract: | Immigration continues to shape labor market dynamics, yet its gender-specific effects remain understudied. This study revisits the Mariel Boatlift, when about 125, 000 Cubans arrived in Miami in 1980, increasing the local labor supply by 7%, to examine its impact on native women's labor market outcomes. While previous studies have mainly focused on wage effects among low-skilled male workers and found limited effects, the consequences for native women have been largely overlooked. This research fills this gap by examining how the influx of low-skilled immigrants affected native women's labor force participation, unemployment, wages, and hours worked. Using data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from 1976 to 1993, and applying the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) method, we find substantial declines in labor force participation and notable increase in unemployment among native women, with both low- and high-educated women experiencing adverse effects. These findings provide new evidence that immigration shocks can have broad and heterogeneous impacts across genders, complementing the literature that has largely found minimal labor market effects, particularly among men. |
| Keywords: | immigration, supply shock, labor force, native, gender, Mariel Boatlift, Synthetic Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1613 |
| By: | Germain, Enomy |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and emigration from Haiti to the United States, focusing on the moderating role of political instability. Haiti is one of the most disaster-prone and politically fragile countries in the Western Hemisphere, experiencing an average of 3.1 disasters per year between 1990 and 2020. Drawing on thirty years of national-level time series data, this study employs a linear Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model with interaction terms to test whether political instability amplifies the migration response to disasters. The results reveal a strong and statistically significant link between disaster frequency and emigration flows. Moreover, this relationship is significantly intensified in years of heightened political instability, suggesting that weak institutional capacity compounds the push factors associated with natural shocks. While traditional migration models emphasize economic drivers, this study shows that political stability plays a crucial role in shaping emigration outcomes. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that address both environmental risks and governance challenges in disaster-prone settings. |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ac7bv_v1 |
| By: | Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Wang, Chunbei |
| Abstract: | Since 2012, DACA has provided deportation relief and work authorization to immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. This study examines how legal and political uncertainty, triggered by the Trump administration's 2017 announcement to end the program, affected recipients' economic and social outcomes. Using difference-in-differences and event study methods, we find that gains in education, health, and geographic mobility largely persisted, while employment and income benefits eroded, particularly in nonsanctuary and high-enforcement states. However, strong local DACA networks helped buffer these losses. The results underscore how policy uncertainty can erode some gains while others persist in more supportive environments. |
| Keywords: | DACA, undocumented immigrants, Trump, employment, health, education |
| JEL: | J12 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1617 |
| By: | Poppens, Jack |
| Abstract: | This study examines the evolving circumstances of Ukrainian nationals residing in Germany, contrasting the periods before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The research uses a mixed-methods and narrative interview approach to analyze demographic shifts, integration challenges, and policy responses affecting this population. Findings indicate that integration into German society has been difficult compared to Ukrainians who may have arrived before the Russian invasion. Challenges persist in language acquisition, employment, educational opportunities, and access to social programs. The study underscores the importance of targeted policy measures to facilitate the integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany and highlights the need for ongoing support to address their unique circumstances. |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ga8bv_v1 |
| By: | Timothy J. Hatton |
| Abstract: | The transition from sail to steam for emigrant ships on the route to Australia took place in the early 1880s, nearly two decades later than on the route across the Atlantic. The lag can be accounted for by the incremental improvement in steam technology and by aspects of economic and business organisation. Most of the steamship ventures that were initiated failed, but with one important exception. Brunel’s pioneering steamship the SS Great Britain made 32 voyages to Australia from 1852 to 1875 with a total of nearly 16, 000 passengers. The Great Britain’s success provides a unique perspective on why steam failed to rule the emigrant trade until the 1880s. Among the key features are the characteristics of the ship and the way it was adapted for the long voyage to the antipodes. Also important was the shrewd management of its owners, and an element of luck. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Australia, Steamships, Shipping organisation |
| JEL: | F22 N77 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:131 |
| By: | Makoza, Frank |
| Abstract: | Digital nomads strategies and remote working visa regimes have attracted attention of governments in economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in some countries, the execution of the remote working and digital nomads strategies; and amendment of immigration laws been problematic. This paper analysed causes of delays for digital nomads strategy and immigration law amendment in an African country. Using the case for the city of Cape Town in South Africa, the study draws on concepts from public policies and laws model. Secondary data e.g. government strategies, legal documents and media report were analysed using content analysis. The findings showed the complexity of public strategy and law amendments. Lack of capacity in government departments and consultation processes challenges resulted in the delays of the implementation of remote working and digital nomads strategy. Further, attempt to align the Immigration Act 13 of 2002 with other legislations and regulations (e.g. pay as you earn, unemployment insurance fund and skills development levies) contributed to the delays of implementing the remote working visa and digital nomads strategy. The study offers useful insights that can help policymakers to overcome delays in public technology strategies and amendment of legislations. |
| Keywords: | Digital nomads, public policy, Strategy, Laws, Remote working visa, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:318387 |
| By: | Lavriniuk, Viktoria |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus and the ensuing political crisis, many women were forced into exile. This article explores how Belarusian women continue their engagement in political, socio-cultural, and socio-economic initiatives abroad, often beyond the traditional frameworks of political participation. Drawing on feminist methodology, in-depth interviews, and ethnographic observation conducted in 2022, the study describes the major forms of women's activism in exile. These include community support both to Belarusians and Ukrainians, cultural preservation, assistance to political prisoners and migrants, and educational and humanitarian initiatives. The article argues that women's work in exile not only sustains diasporic life but also constitutes a meaningful form of resistance that challenges dominant notions of visibility, leadership, and political agency in post-authoritarian contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jex9v_v1 |