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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Labour shortages in Europe have led firms to adopt two key strategies automation and the employment of migrants. This study empirically examines the relationship between robot adoption and immigrant labour (differentiated by region of origin and education level) in Austrian firms using a novel dataset linking firm-level survey data on robotics adoption from Austria’s Information and Communication Technologies (IKTU ) surveys (waves 2018, 2020 and 2022) with registry-based employment records. Employing Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimations, we analyse firm-level employment decisions while controlling for firm characteristics, industry and region. Our findings show that firms adopting robots tend to employ more workers overall, particularly those with low and medium education levels. Notably, robot-adopting firms employ a higher share of low-educated migrants who are not from the European Economic Area (EEA), suggesting complementarity rather than substitution. However, automation appears to reduce the employment of highly educated migrant workers relative to natives. Distinguishing between industrial and service robots, we find that service robots have a stronger association with employment growth than industrial robots. The impact of robot adoption also differs by sector and is most pronounced in manufacturing, whereas its effects vary in the private service sectors. Our findings suggest that while automation can alleviate labour shortages, it may reinforce labour market segmentation. For EU policy makers, targeted interventions are needed to support the transition of migrant workers into higher-skilled occupations and to ensure that the benefits of automation are equitably distributed. Given the EU-wide relevance of automation and migration dynamics, these results provide insights that are also applicable beyond Austria. |
| Keywords: | Migration, automation, employment, firm- and worker-level analysis |
| JEL: | D22 J23 J24 J61 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:262 |
| By: | Zainab Iftikhar (University of Bonn & CEPR); Anna Zaharieva (Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | In this study we evaluate the effects of low-skilled immigration on small businesses, wages and employment in Germany. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers, cross-skill matching, and endogenous entry into entrepreneurship. The model is calibrated using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data. Quantitative analysis shows that low-skilled immigration benefits high-skilled workers while negatively affecting the welfare of low-skilled workers. It leads to the endogenous expansion of immigrant entrepreneurial activities, generating positive spillovers for all demographic groups except native entrepreneurs. Overall, there is a marginal loss to the economy in terms of per worker welfare. This loss is mitigated with increased skilled migration from India. Policies restricting immigrant entrepreneurship relax competition for native small businesses but reduce welfare for all other worker groups. Ethnic segregation of small businesses benefits low-skill native entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, small business, self-employment, search frictions, immigration |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J61 J64 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:358 |
| By: | Berlinschi, Ruxanda; Verhaest, Dieter; Poelmans, Eline; Adriaenssens, Stef |
| Abstract: | This study documents self-selection on human capital for Ukrainian refugees. We compare the socio-demographic characteristics of a representative sample of Ukrainian refugees who registered in Belgium in the fall of 2022 with those of the Ukrainian population before the war. Contrarily to previous studies, we find negative self-selection on human capital, particularly for men and for refugees arriving from the low conflict intensity regions of Ukraine. At the same time, refugees from the low conflict intensity regions arrive with more locally-specific human capital, such as knowledge of the French language, previous visits to Belgium, and access to social networks in Belgium. Such self-selection, driven by individual incentives - economic and patriotic - has societal benefits, such as reduced brain drain for Ukraine and improved job matching in European countries offering protection. |
| Keywords: | Russia-Ukraine war, refugees, human capital, self-selection |
| JEL: | F22 F5 H12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1591 |
| By: | Marco Pecoraro; Bruno Lanz; Didier Ruedin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increased unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer correlated with unemployment, whereas anti-asylum attitudes not only decline but reverse in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes consistent with contact theory. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Forced Migration, Unemployment, Labour Market Effects, Anti-Asylum Attitudes, Voting Behaviour, Contact Theory |
| JEL: | J61 J68 D72 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-03 |