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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Giacomo Battiston; Lucia Corno (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Eliana La Ferrara |
| Abstract: | Can providing information to potential migrants in uence their decisions about risky and irregular migration? We conduct an experiment with over 7, 000 secondary school students in Guinea, providing information through video testimonials by migrants who settled in Europe and through aggregate statistics. We implement three treatments: (i) information about the risks of the journey; (ii) information about economic outcomes in the destination country; and (iii) a combination of both. One month after the intervention, all treatments led students to update their beliefs about the risks and the economic outcomes of migration, resulting in decreased intentions to migrate. One year later, the Risk Treatment resulted in a 51% decline in migration outside Guinea. This e ect was driven by a decrease in migration without a visa (i.e., potentially risky and irregular) and was more pronounced among poorer students. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a model where individuals choose between not migrating, migrating regularly, or migrating irregularly, and where information increases the perceived cost of irregular migration, thus decreasing migration among poorer students who cannot a ord regular migration. |
| Keywords: | irregular migration, tracking, information experiment, Guinea. |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 D8 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def136 |
| By: | Laura Muñoz-Blanco (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Federico Fabio Frattini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | The rising number of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) presents new challenges for vaccine distribution and the spread of diseases. How do forcibly displaced population inflows affect infectious disease incidence in host communities? Can a policy intervention that vaccinates children during their migration mitigate the impacts? To answer these questions, we examine the Pakistani mass internal displacement from the conflict-affected Federally Administered Tribal Areas in 2008. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we compare new polio cases in districts near and far from the conflict zone before and after 2008. The spatial distribution of districts relative to the historical region of Pashtunistan allows us to design a sample of comparable units. We show that a standard deviation increase in predicted IDP inflow leads to a rise in the new polio cases per 100, 000 inhabitants. Poorer vaccination levels among IDP compared to native children in host communities are one of the main mechanisms. Implementing a vaccination policy targeting IDP children during their migration journey helps bridge the vaccination gap, with important welfare implications. |
| Keywords: | internal displacement, infectious diseases, vaccines, Pakistan |
| JEL: | D60 I15 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2403 |
| By: | Olga Alonso-Villar; Coral del Río |
| Abstract: | We offer a reflection on the measurement of segregation, gathering methodological contributions from sociology and economics, and we use some of them to explore occupational segregation by gender and nativity in Spain. Our goal is to offer a guide to the tools that can be used in empirical analysis, connecting them with theoretical discussions. Our empirical analysis shows that the occupational segregation of immigrant women is a more intense phenomenon than that of native women or immigrant men, although it decreased significantly over the period 2006-2024. Unlike their male peers, occupational sorting strongly penalizes immigrant women after controlling for characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Segregation, gender, migration status, wage gaps, intersectionality |
| JEL: | D63 J15 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vig:wpaper:2402 |
| By: | Michel beine (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU); Ana Montes-Viñas (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research); Skerdilajda Zanaj (DEM, Université du Luxembourg, LU) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the gap between expectations and aspirations plays a significant role in the educational achievements of immigrant young adults in the US. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, the study reveals that when aspirations exceed expectations—a positive gap— migrant teens tend to exert more effort, leading to improved educational performance. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the differences in academic performance between migrant children and native-born individuals are rooted in this misalignment of aspirations and expectations. By incorporating this perspective, the paper resolves the well-documented immigrant paradox in educational performance in the US. |
| Keywords: | Add health database, aspirations, expectations, immigrant paradox, education performance. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I26 J15 F22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:24-11 |
| By: | Hana Jomni; Nikita Zakharov (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of terrorist attacks on the migration discourse in the European Parliament (EP). First, using an LLM model, we develop an original dataset on sentiments of all parliamentary speeches concerning migration for 2009-2019, building on a novel dataset by Sylvester et al. (2023). Second, following Brodeur (2018), we employ a causal identification strategy based on quasi-natural randomization in the success or failure of terrorist attacks. We find that while a successful terrorist attack does not change the overall migration sentiment, it has heterogeneous effects conditional on the political position of the speaker: left-wing and, to a lesser extent, centrist politicians become more favorable toward migration after successful attacks, while the right-wing politicians become more negative. Politicians of different ideologies adjusting migration-related sentiment in a direction aligned with their pre-existing partisan positions indicate an increasing polarization among policymakers as a direct consequence of terrorism. |
| Keywords: | Terrorist attacks, migration politics, sentiment analysis, European Parliament, polarization. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fre:wpaper:50 |
| By: | Bansak, Kirk (University of California, Berkeley); Martén, Linna (Swedish Institute for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an approach to evaluating the group-level fairness of an algorithmic decision-making system on the basis of the distribution of causal impact, with an application to a new area of algorithmic decision-making in public policy that has received little attention in the algorithmic fairness literature: the geographic assignment of refugees within host countries. The approach formalizes the algorithmic assignment procedure and causal impact using the potential outcomes framework, and it offers flexibility to accommodate a wide range of use cases. Specifically, it is flexible in allowing for the consideration of outcomes of different types (continuous or discrete), impact on multiple outcomes of interest, any number of policy options to which units can be assigned (extending beyond binary decisions), and various ways in which predictions map to actual decisions. The paper illustrates the approach, as well as highlights the limits of conventional fairness perspectives, with an application to the geographic assignment of refugee. Real-world data on refugees in Sweden are used to evaluate the implications if refugees were algorithmically assigned to labor market regions to improve their employment outcomes, compared to the quasi-random status quo assignment, focusing particularly on fairness of the impact across gender. In addition to considering the algorithmic target outcome (i.e. employment), the proposed framework also facilitates evaluation of unintended impacts on “cross-outcomes” (e.g. skill development) and their implications for fairness. |
| Keywords: | algorithmic fairness; causal inference; refugee matching; refugee resettlement |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofile:2024_006 |
| By: | Lyytikäinen, Teemu; Ramboer, Sander; Toikka, Max |
| Abstract: | We study the economic effects of transfers to local governments using a reform of the Finnish municipal grant system as a source of exogenous variation. We find that higher grants lead to lower municipal taxes and fees, and higher public spending. These changes in local fiscal policy lead to an increase in private sector jobs. Our estimates imply a cost per job of €33, 000. The increase in jobs is paired with a reduction in commuting to other municipalities. The effect on migration seems small, suggesting grants bring local benefits without drastically affecting where households choose to live. |
| Keywords: | Local government grants, Internal migration, Labor markets, Commuting, Fiscal equalization, Regional policy, Local public finance and provision of public services, R23, R28, H72, fi=Kunnat ja hyvinvointialueet|sv=Kommuner och välfärdsområden|en=Municipalities and wellbeing services counties|, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:171 |
| By: | Guillaume Blanc |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a novel dataset crowdsourced from publicly available online genealogies to study demographic change and development in Europe before modern censuses became available. Using millions of publicly available family trees, I reconstruct fertility from horizontal lineages and identify migration to and from urban centers. Then, I systematically compare the data to a range of representative sources in thirty countries and show that selection is limited after the mid-seventeenth century. Finally, I document novel stylized facts on the rural flight, the demographic transition, and the intergenerational persistence of migration, fertility, and longevity; providing suggestive evidence that substantial changes took hold in the eighteenth century, in the early stages of the transition from stagnation to growth. |
| Keywords: | fertility, demography, migration, development |
| JEL: | J10 N33 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:allwps:0006 |
| By: | Athanasia Chalari |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to explore the ways Greek born, permanent residents in the UK (Greek diaspora in the UK), experience their Greek, British and/or Greek diasporised cultural identities especially in relation to integration and social cohesion within the host culture. 30 in depth interviews have been conducted and analysed through interpretative phenomenology revealing multi-layered experience of multicultural identity through six certain and distinct ways involving constant negotiation between the: a)Greek cultural origin of homeland, b) Greek diasporised culture in the UK and c) British culture. A rather unanticipated finding relates with participants’ almost unanimous hesitation in belonging or committing to British national identity which paradoxically co-exists with their undisputed active and productive contribution towards social cohesion among British society. |
| Keywords: | Greek, British, Cultural, ethnic, national, citizenship, diaspora identity, integration |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:203 |