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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Francesca Caselli; Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin; Mr. Frederik G Toscani; Jiaxiong Yao |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand, with around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens, while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows. Ukrainian refugees also appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries. The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area (of around 2 million workers) is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—slightly less than half the euro area’s annual potential GDP growth at that time—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives. This highlights the important role immigration can play in attenuating the effects of the Europe’s challenging demographic outlook. On the flipside, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion of local public services such as schooling. Policy efforts should thus seek to continue to integrate migrants into the labor force while making sure that the supply of public services and amenities (including at the local level) keeps up with the population increase. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Labor Markets; European Union |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/211 |
| By: | Elizabeth M. Jacobs (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Tom Theile (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniela Perrotta (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Xinyi Zhao (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Athina Anastasiadou (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines gender differentials in the international migration of professionals, and how this varies by country, industry, age, and years of experience. We leverage data from LinkedIn, the largest professional networking website, to construct immigrant and emigrant Gender Gap Indexes (iGGI and eGGI). These indexes measure inflows and openness to international relocation. The findings indicate that, among LinkedIn users, the global population of immigrant professionals is at gender parity. The professional migrant population is majority-female in key destination countries like the U.S., U.K., Australia and France, as well as emerging destination countries like South Korea and Singapore. Our results show that the mobility of women migrants is driven by industries like finance, healthcare and real estate. We find evidence of positive selection among women migrant professionals in key destination countries and industries. Our results indicate that men are more open to international relocation than women, suggesting that men express higher migration aspirations, but men and women have similar rates of observed mobility. The paper makes novel contributions to the literature on migration aspirations, behavior and selectivity. Methodologically, we develop a new data set and appropriate measures to complement existing sources to study professional migration across a wide range of countries. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-037 |
| By: | Paúl Elguezabal (University of Goettingen); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (University of Goettingen & University of Goettingen) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of regularisation programs on immigration flows using a newly collected dataset and panel-data techniques applied to gravity models. The main novelty is twofold. First to present the dataset with detailed information on regularisation policies in OECD countries, including those implemented over the period from 1944 to 2023 and specifying the timeframe of implementation and the origin nationalities targeted. And second, to estimate the impact with a gravity model of bilateral migration applying a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator for an unbalanced panel of 193 origins and 32 OECD destinations for 199-2022. The main results indicate that the regularisation impact is very heterogeneous across geographical regions of incoming migrants and across groups of countries depending on their level of development. In particular, the results indicate that regularisation programs are a pull factor for lower-income OECD destinations. |
| Keywords: | Migration, regularisation, policy evaluation, income and regional heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.14 |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Devashish Mitra |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes and compares equilibrium immigration levels of some popular political economy models in the context of unequal capital holdings. We show that immigration rises (falls) with inequality in a limited (inclusive) democracy where only a small (large) fraction of the population has voting rights. Furthermore, we highlight the similarities between a campaign-contributions model and a partial-democracy model in terms of their predictions about immigration policy. In particular, we show that extension of voting rights in a partial democracy has qualitatively similar implications on immigration policy as reducing the relative weight on campaign contributions. |
| Keywords: | legal immigration policy; inequality in capital ownership; partial democracy; voter support for immigration; campaign contributions; lobbying |
| JEL: | F22 F66 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98968 |
| By: | Seema Jayachandran (Princeton University and NBER); Lea Nassal (University of Duisburg-Essen); Matthew Notowidigdo (Univeristy of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER); Marie Paul (University of Duisburg-Essen and CReAM); Heather Sarsons (University of British Columbia and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Many couples face a trade-off between advancing one spouse’s career or the other's. We study this trade-off by analyzing the earnings effects of relocation and the effects of a job layoff on the likelihood of relocating using detailed administrative data from Germany and Sweden. Using an event-study analysis of couples moving across commuting zones, we find that relocation increases men’s earnings more than women’s, with strikingly similar patterns in Germany and Sweden. Using a sample of mass layoff events, we find that couples in both countries are more likely to relocate in response to the man being laid off compared to the woman. We then investigate whether these gendered patterns reflect men’s higher earnings or a gender norm that prioritizes men’s career advancement. To do this, we develop a model of household decision-making in which households place more weight on the income earned by the man compared to the woman, and we test the model using the subset of couples where the man and woman have similar potential earnings. For both countries, we show that the estimated model can accurately reproduce the reduced-form results, including those not used to estimate the model. The results point to a role for gender norms in explaining the gender gap in the returns to joint moves. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Sweden, Labor migration, tied movers, gender gap in earnings |
| JEL: | J61 J16 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:326 |
| By: | Magdalena Knapi?ska (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study is to analyze the flows of immigrants and emigrants in Poland. The paper starts with a literature review of economic theories of migration and demographic trends. In the last years, Poland experienced a large change migratory pattern and geographic labour mobility. While Poland was initially a source country in international migration, it is becoming increasingly a target country for migration flows. This development was accelerated by the war in Ukraine. Based on the geographical proximity and a long tradition of intense of short-term migration from Ukraine to Poland, nearly a half million of refugees from Ukraine moved to Poland. Moreover, the scope of migration changed from the short-term to the long-term migration. Although, this development caused some short-term structural problems in various fields including education and social system, the Polish economy was able to absorb the war refugee flows better than expected. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects and Forecasts, Labor and Demographic Economics, Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers |
| JEL: | J11 J00 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516367 |