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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Bøje-Kovács, Bence János (Aalborg University, Department of the Built Environment); Mulalic, Ismir (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Schultz-Nielsen, Marie Louise (ROCKWOOL Foundation Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of municipal mergers on residential mobility in a quasi-natural experiment setting by examining how local economic environment and neighborhood composition respond to the loss of local public administration. Utilizing comprehensive neighborhood-level data from Denmark spanning 1996 to 2015, we find that the loss of the town-hall triggers emigration, leading to a re-duction in locally supplied public goods. This affects the local housing market and job availability, leading to lower housing prices, higher wages, and longer com-mutes. Ultimately, the loss of the town-hall bears major negative consequences for inhabitants. |
| Keywords: | Municipal amalgamation; Regional migration; Neighborhood characteristics; Local labor markets |
| JEL: | H75 J23 R23 R53 |
| Date: | 2024–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_012 |
| By: | Dumitru Sandu |
| Abstract: | Migration intentions are an approximation of future migration behaviours. How can we reach, at the level of the European Union, approximations of intra-European emigration? We could be all the closer to this target if we manage to have a better identification of the "net" country selectivity patterns, keeping under control the role of other factors that contribute to country selectivity about migration between European Union countries. This is the target we have set ourselves, using data from Special Eurobarometer 528, conducted in 2022. After running, country by country, the same multiple regression model, we grouped countries with similar models of predicting potential emigration. Of course, the specification of the regression models was dependent on the data available in that international survey. To test the validity of the working model, we used multiple analyses (cluster, regression, sensitivity). The results indicate nine clusters of European countries with similar patterns of selectivity in determining potential intra-European migration. One of the solid guarantees of the validity of the analysis we propose is the proximity of the countries that are included in the same grouping. |
| Date: | 2024–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:70 |
| By: | Kafle, Kashi; Wang, Yuanhang; Kiiza, Barnabas |
| Abstract: | In the absence of reliable and timely weather information, unprecedented weather shocks can influence farmers’ decision-making. We take the case of Uganda to investigate the relationship between weather shocks and temporary migration among smallholders. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey – Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Survey in Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) –, we examine if household-level weather shocks affect temporary migration. Using panel data estimators, we show that weather shocks reduce temporary migration among poor households, and the relationship is more pronounced for smallholders. We also find that the relationship differs by the type of migration. Weather shocks reduce temporary labor migration and migration for educational purposes, but migration for other reasons is not affected. These results are confirmed by focused group interviews with 24 rural farmers from all four regions of Uganda. We identify reduced agricultural productivity and low farm revenue as potential channels for the negative relationship between weather shocks and migration. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344270 |
| By: | Rueß, Stefanie; Schneider, Gerald; Vogler, Jan |
| Abstract: | Does the priming of street-level bureaucrats with negative news stories on immigration influence their decisions regarding unemployment benefits? Previous research has established that regional-level peer pressure on public employees and the national-level salience of immigration debates intensify bureaucratic discrimination. By synthesizing the media framing and bureaucratic discrimination literatures, we expect that the priming of street-level bureaucrats with a news frame about welfare fraud committed by ethnic minorities leads to discriminatory practices. To investigate the validity of our theoretical propositions, we conducted a preregistered conjoint experiment with a large dataset, namely a representative survey of German street-level bureaucrats working in unemployment offices. We observe negative discrimination against Romanian claimants after exposure to a negative article, even when they provide internally consistent applications, but not toward Moroccan claimants. These effects are particularly pronounced among caseworkers leaning to the political right and living in federal states whose populations exhibit strong anti-immigration attitudes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:301151 |
| By: | Francisca M. Antman; Brian Duncan |
| Abstract: | Political discourse has often stoked racial and ethnic divisions, raising the possibility that individuals’ self-reported racial and ethnic identities may change in response to an increasingly hostile environment. We shed light on this question by measuring the impacts of local support for California’s Proposition 187, one of the first and most well-known ballot measures widely seen to be anti-immigrant and anti-Latino, on individuals’ willingness to identify ethnically as Hispanic and specifically, Mexican. Linking data on self-reported ethnicity, ancestry, and parental place of birth with county-level voter support for Proposition 187, we show that individuals with stronger ties to Mexican ancestry or parentage are less likely to identify ethnically as Mexican in response to support for Proposition 187, just as individuals with weaker ties to Mexican ancestry are more likely to identify as Mexican. This is consistent with our predictions that anti-minority sentiment may drive individuals with more observable ties to a minority group to reduce their willingness to identify due to heightened fear of discrimination and hostility. At the same time, anti-minority sentiment may raise the salience of ethnicity and race and thus increase the willingness to identify as a minority for those with weaker observable ties, who are relatively more protected from adverse impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to document a connection between political discourse and endogenous ethnic identity. |
| JEL: | D72 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32818 |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Universität Bamberg); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Adunts, Davit (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Braunfels, Joseph (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Goßner, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Konle-Seidl, Regina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vandenhirtz, Marie (IAB) |
| Abstract: | "This research report investigates the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees across various European countries, including many EU member states as well as the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, in the period from Q4 2022 to Q1 2024. Comparing the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different countries presents challenges due to the absence of a uniform database, such as the European Labor Force Survey (LFS). To address this, we constructed a comprehensive database that harmonizes employment data from comparable time points and employs consistent definitions for calculating rates. Employment data were obtained from administrative records in countries where available, and from various surveys conducted at different times in other nations. Additionally, this study compiles indicators currently recognized in research as having an influence on labor market integration, using comparable data and definitions to enhance the robustness of the analysis. From the end of 2022 to early 2024, the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees in Europe showed significant variation. By the first quarter of 2024, Germany's employment rate had reached nearly 27 percent, placing it in the European midfield. At the end of 2022, countries such as the UK, the Netherlands, and Lithuania had employment rates exceeding 50 percent, while Croatia, Norway, Romania, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Spain reported rates below 15 percent. Germany also reported a mid-field rate of 20 percent at the end of 2022. Throughout 2023, Denmark, Austria, France, Poland, and Lithuania saw modest increases in employment rates. However, this upward trend did not persist; some countries experienced stagnation, while others, including Romania, saw declines. Conversely, Slovenia, Switzerland, Finland, Spain, and Estonia witnessed slight increases. The UK consistently maintained its high employment rate across the period. In Germany, beyond the influence of seasonal fluctuations, there was a steady annual increase in employment rates, culminating in 27 percent by early 2024. To investigate the reasons behind the varying employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different European countries, this report delves into the relationships between employment rates and various socio-demographic, institutional, and economic factors. Our objective is to achieve a preliminary, yet more comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive labor market integration of refugees and to assess the impact of these factors. It is important to note that the analyses conducted are descriptive in nature, not causal. They are intended to provide an initial insight into the correlations, helping to identify potential areas for more in-depth, causal research in the future. Multivariate analyses underscore the crucial impact of the demographic composition of newcomers and the institutional and economic conditions in the destination countries on the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees. Countries with a higher demand for low-skilled labor – measured by the size of the low-status labor market segment or employees in low-skilled occupations – tend to have higher employment rates for these individuals. This may be attributed to the fact that such jobs often have fewer language requirements and other qualifications, allowing for quicker job placements. Additionally, there is a negative correlation between strict labor market regulations, such as enhanced job security measures, and the likelihood of Ukrainian refugees finding employment. Furthermore, a negative correlation exists between the growth rate of unemployment and the employment of Ukrainian refugees, suggesting that newcomers are less likely to secure jobs in countries with increasing unemployment. Social infrastructure significantly impacts the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are women with children. Consequently, our regression analysis shows that the availability of childcare is correlated with employment rate of refugees. Countries with better childcare facilities tend to see higher employment rates among refugees, as this infrastructure supports the ability of parents, particularly mothers, to enter the workforce. Similarly, comprehensive access to health services also correlates with higher employment rates, as it ensures that refugees are physically and mentally able to work. Interestingly, the relationship between social transfer payments, measured by the ratio of costs for caring for Ukrainian refugee per capita to the gross domestic product per capita of the respective host country, and employment rates is small and statistically insignificant. While it is often assumed that transfer payments play a central role in employment, this hypothesis is not confirmed in our analysis. However, social networks play a critical role in the employment integration of refugees. Countries with a larger Ukrainian community often report higher employment rates among Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, a strong command of English within the destination-country population positively corelates with employment rates, probably because it facilitates better communication and with that integration into the labor market. The integration policy strategies across EU member states and other European countries vary significantly. Some nations adopt a "work first" approach, prioritizing immediate employment without initial preparatory measures such as language courses or qualification measures. This strategy aims at quick job placement but often overlooks the need for the development of comprehensive skill. In contrast, other countries focus on the long-term, sustainable integration into the labor market. These nations implement comprehensive language programs, qualification measures, and targeted job placements that align more closely with the refugees' qualifications. Although this approach may result in so-called "lock-in" effects, where refugees might experience a delayed entry into the labor market, it is more likely to lead to stable employment relationships, jobs that match the refugees' skills, and higher earnings over time. Scandinavian studies underscore these differences in outcomes. Countries that emphasize the "work first" model tend to show higher employment rates for refugees in the short term. However, nations that invest in education and language acquisition demonstrate better integration results in the medium and long term. This success extends beyond mere employment rates and earnings to include broader aspects of social inclusion and quality of life for refugees. Such findings highlight the importance of tailored integration policies that consider both immediate employment needs and long-term societal benefits. The multivariate analyses further confirm the significant impact of demographic factors, particularly family constellation, on labor market integration. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between employment rates and older age and having more children per working-age woman. Finally, the data reveals a positive time trend: employment rates for all demographic groups tend to increase with the length of their residence. This suggests that many of the initial barriers to employment faced by refugees diminish over time, indicating that with longer stays, refugees are more likely to overcome these initial challenges and secure employment. Overall, this report underscores that Germany, with its comprehensive long-term integration strategies, is well-positioned to significantly enhance the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees over the medium to long term. Insights from refugees who arrived between 2013 and 2019 validate this potential, with employment rates reaching 68 percent eight years after arrival. These findings emphasize the necessity of continually reassessing and refining integration strategies to effectively promote the integration of refugees. Such adjustments are crucial not only for improving the immediate economic prospects of refugees but also for contributing to the broader economy, ultimately yielding substantial long-term benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202416(en) |
| By: | Gundacker, Lidwina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hertner, Laura (Berliner Institut für empirische Integrations- und Migrationsforschung - BIM); Ruhnke, Simon (Berliner Institut für empirische Integrations- und Migrationsforschung - BIM) |
| Abstract: | "According to the German Federal Statistical Office, 2.9 million people in Germany had a Turkish migration background in 2022. Thus, Turkey represents one of the most important countries of origin for migrants in Germany. In the last decade, however, Turkey has also become an important transit and destination country for migrants itself. Since 2011, when war broke out in Syria, more than 3.7 million Syrians have sought refuge in Turkey. Starting in 2014, Turkey's initial open-door immigration policy increasingly gave way to restrictive measures with the goal to limit migration from Syria. Following a German initiative, the European Union (EU) and the Turkish government agreed on a migration agreement in 2016. The EU-Turkey agreement aimed at limiting irregular migration to the EU and, in turn, improving the humanitarian conditions for refugees in Turkey by providing 6 billion Euros in aid. In this research report, we examine the living conditions, well-being, and socio-economic participation of Syrian refugees in Turkey compared to the Turkish host society in 2022, six years after the EU-Turkey agreement. We make use of the comprehensive longitudinal data infrastructure that was created as part of the TRANSMIT project in cooperation between IAB and the Berlin Institute for Empirical Integration and Migration Research (BIM, Humboldt University Berlin). This report relies on wave 2 of the TRANSMIT Turkey survey conducted in December 2021 and January 2022. The structured survey of equal numbers of Syrians and Turks (1250 respondents each) enables us to compare the living conditions of Syrians in Turkey with those of the Turkish majority population. The findings indicate that the living conditions, well-being and participation of Syrian refugees in Turkey remain precarious despite the EU-Turkey agreement. For example, in 2022, roughly one third of the Syrian respondents report that their income does not cover food, another third cannot afford other basic necessities. Despite an average length of stay of 8 years, more than two-thirds of Syrian workers are employed as day laborers. The majority of employment is irregular and involves manual, often physically demanding work such as construction or agriculture. Similar to the situation of refugees in Germany, there is a strong gender gap in the labour market, but the overall level of employment for Syrians in Turkey is higher. 39 percent of the Syrian women and 79 percent of the Syrian men are in paid employment. Women furthermore provide most of the unpaid household labour and carework. Participation in education remains low, with a total of 7 percent of adult respondents having attended or currently attending school at the time of the survey. Men are more likely to participate in education than women. We attribute the relatively high labour market participation and the low educational participation to the fact that Syrians in Turkey do not have systematic access to social security and childcare, apart from EU-funded emergency programs. Similarly, language classes are not systematically available for Syrian refugees in Turkey. Turkish language proficiency increases moderately from 47 percent after 5 or less years of residence to 63 percent after 10 or more years of residence. This upward trend in language skills is mostly driven by Syrian women. The educational participation of Syrian children is much more comprehensive: 85 percent of the 6- to 15-year-olds are attending school. This success can in part be attributed to the respective EU support. We also examine the aspirations and concrete plans of Syrian refugees to leave Turkey. A quarter of the Syrians interviewed in 2022 would like to leave Turkey. Germany is most frequently mentioned as the preferred destination. However, only a small share (7 percent) of those with migration intentions actually have concrete plans to emigrate in the next 12 months. The most prominent reasons to stay are children currently in education, a lack of financial resources and the wish to stay with the family. Among Syrians with social networks abroad, the proportion with concrete plans to emigrate is even lower. This underscores the hypothetical nature of the migration aspirations that we measured in the TRANSMIT surveys." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202418 |