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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Riphahn, Regina T. (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Sauer, Irakli (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the wage assimilation of East Germans who migrated to West Germany after reunification (1990-1999). We compare their wage assimilation to that of ethnic German immigrants from Eastern Bloc countries and international immigrants to West Germany who arrived at the same time. The analysis uses administrative as well as survey data. The results suggest that East Germans faced significant initial earnings disadvantages in West Germany, even conditional on age and education. However, these disadvantages were smaller than those of international immigrants, supporting the beneficial role of cultural similarity. The earnings gap relative to West German natives narrowed over time for all immigrants. These findings are robust to controlling for potentially endogenous return migration and labor force participation. Controls for fixed effects reveal that positive assimilation for East German and international immigrants was concentrated among highly educated immigrants. |
| Keywords: | cultural similarity, labor market integration, internal migration, earnings assimilation, migration, Germany, reunification |
| JEL: | F15 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17148 |
| By: | Hammoud Gallego, Omar |
| Abstract: | Most countries across the globe introduce visa restrictions to regulate immigration, yet little is known about their effect on migrants’ decision to migrate and their well-being. I study the mass displacement of Venezuelan nationals, and through a difference-in-differences research design, I compare the effectiveness of introducing visa restrictions in reducing overall migration flows in certain countries across South America. I use a data set of 85, 000 migrants and refugees - mostly Venezuelans - surveyed by the UNHCR. Findings suggest that visa restrictions increased the likelihood of irregular entry and irregular visa status for migrants while also leading to changes in their priorities. Unexpectedly, I do not find evidence of increased violence suffered by migrants who switch towards irregular entry channels in specific countries. This research contributes to the academic and policy debate on the effectiveness of visa restrictions on migratory flows, as well the literature on the effects of migration policies on migrants’ well-being. |
| Keywords: | migration; forced displacement; visa restriction; Venezuala; South America; borders; Elsevier deal |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124093 |
| By: | Kelsey J. O'Connor |
| Abstract: | The immigrant (foreign-born) population increased by 32 million in total across 37 European countries from 1990 to 2019. Much of this movement was from east to west. Indeed, both the total and foreign-born populations declined in the former Eastern Bloc over this period. Such demographic shifts could be expected to affect both the immigrant destination and origin countries in diverse ways. However, we find no evidence of positive or negative impacts on aggregate subjective well-being, among both the destination and origin countries. Immigrants, in contrast, experienced increased well-being, converted to monetary terms, in excess of £25, 000 per person. Previous research had reduced scopes, e.g., covering destination countries or impacts on income only. We offer more comprehensive evidence, in terms of country and period, and by assessing impacts on subjective well-being, which implicitly includes all of the factors perceived to be important to people, both economic and non-economic. |
| Keywords: | immigration, emigration, migrants, life satisfaction, happiness |
| JEL: | I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1461 |
| By: | Demid Getik (Durham University); Anna Sjögren (Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU)); Anton Sundberg (Uppsala University, IFAU) |
| Abstract: | We examine how exposure to recent migrants and asylum seekers affects the academic performance of incumbent students in Sweden between 2008 and 2022, a period characterized by large migration inflows. To identify the effect, we exploit variation in exposure to recent migrants between siblings and over time for the same individuals. We find a modest positive effect on native students’ test scores and opposite sign, but insignificant negative effects on foreign background students. We also find that contexts matter. While the positive results are driven by schools with high levels of exposure and there are positive effects of migrant exposure on native students in rural areas, our estimates are negative for both native and foreign background students in large cities. Analyses of mechanisms suggest that school responses to reduce class size play a role in generating net positive effects of migrant exposure. Findings are similar when considering the more acute exposure of the 2015-2016 refugee crisis in an events study approach. |
| Keywords: | schooling, peers, migration |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dur:durham:2024_01 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | The number of people entering the United States has increased sharply in recent years. Most of the increase comes from a surge in people whom CBO categorizes as other foreign nationals. On the basis of pre-2020 trends, CBO would have expected the net immigration of people in that category to average around 200, 000 per year. In the agency’s projections, the net immigration of other foreign nationals exceeds that rate by a total of 8.7 million people over the 2021–2026 period. |
| JEL: | F22 F66 J11 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60165 |
| By: | Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano; Salissu, Afees; Kale, Oyeyemi |
| Abstract: | This study explores the effect of intra-African migration on total unemployment and youth unemployment. It further distils the effect of intra-African migration on male and female youth unemployment and later employs a two-level estimation approach to determine gravity models of migration using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood techniques and a 2-stage least squares approach, which is efficient in dealing with endogeneity bias. The results show that income per capita and population size of both origin and destination countries influence intra-African migration. Additionally, regional trade agreements are the main drivers of bilateral migration among African countries, suggesting that an Africa-wide trade agreement such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will stimulate migration. The results show a negative and statistically significant relationship between migration and youth as well as with overall unemployment in Africa. However, total unemployment tends to reduce faster than youth unemployment, suggesting that adults and experienced labour will benefit more from the employment opportunities created by the AfCFTA than the youth. In addition, the study finds that intra-African migration tends to reduce female youth unemployment than male youth unemployment. |
| Keywords: | migration, unemployment, AfCFTA, 2SLS, Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood, Africa |
| JEL: | C51 J60 N37 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121437 |
| By: | Martin Halla (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Andrea Weber (Department of Economics, Central European University) |
| Abstract: | Overall, income inequality in Austria is moderate and has been stable in recent years. However, a look at employment statistics reveals important inequality trends in the labor market. This paper highlights five important shifts in the composition of the labor force: (i) a massive increase in female labor force participation, (ii) large shifts in the distribution of education, (iii) trends toward part-time work among women as well as men, (iv) persistent gender gaps in market and non-market work of parents, and (v) an increase in labor migration with a substantial share of cross-border commuters. |
| Keywords: | Austria, inequality, labor force, gender, education, child care, immigration, cross-border workers |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J16 J13 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp367 |
| By: | Christoph Eder (Independent, formerly JKU Linz); Martin Halla (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher (Department of Economics, Central European University) |
| Abstract: | How does military occupation affect long-term economic development? We use the post-World War II occupation of Austria as a laboratory setting. Austria was divided into different occupation zones for ten years. The Soviet occupation was exploitative, while the Western Allied occupation was more supportive. After ten years of different occupation regimes, the regions returned to a single nation-state. We estimate the impact of different occupation regimes on long-term economic development. Methodologically, we combine a spatial regression discontinuity design with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that areas in the former Soviet zone are still less economically developed today. These areas are less populated, host fewer and lower paying jobs, and their residents are more likely to commute outside the former Soviet zone. The most plausible mechanism for these long-lasting effects are agglomeration effects triggered by a large migration shock from East to West as the population fled the advancing Soviet army. |
| Keywords: | Military occupation, migration, economic development, World War II, Austria, agglomeration effects |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 J61 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp366 |
| By: | Sylvain Leduc; Daniel J. Wilson |
| Abstract: | Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the course of the past 50 years, the tendency of Americans to move from the coldest places (“snow belt”), which have become warmer, to the hottest places (“sun belt”), which have become hotter, has steadily declined. In the latest full decade, 2010-2020, both county population growth and county net migration rates were essentially uncorrelated with the historical means of either extreme heat days or extreme cold days. The decline in these correlations over the past 50 years is true across counties, across commuting zones, and across states. It holds for urban and suburban counties; for rural counties the correlations have even reversed. It holds for all educational groups, with the sharpest decline in correlations for those with four or more years of college. Among age groups, the pattern is strongest for age groups 20-29 and 60-69, suggestive of climate being an especially important factor for those in life stages involving long-term location choices. Given climate change projections for coming decades of increasing extreme heat in the hottest U.S. counties and decreasing extreme cold in the coldest counties, our findings suggest the “pivoting” in the U.S. climate-migration correlation over the past 50 years is likely to continue, leading to a reversal of the 20th century snow belt to sun belt migration pattern. |
| Keywords: | internal migration; climate change; population growth |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98566 |
| By: | Michal Burzynski |
| Abstract: | Automation of labor tasks is one of the most dynamic aspects of recent technological progress. This paper aims at improving our understanding of the way that automation affects labor markets, analyzing the example of European countries. The quantitative theoretical methodology proposed in this paper allows to focus on automation-induced migration of workers, occupation switching and income inequality. The key findings include that automation in the first two decades of the 21st century had a significant impact on job upgrading of native workers and generated gains in many local labor markets. Even though net migration of workers was attenuated due to convergence in incomes across European regions, mobility at occupation levels had a sizeable impact on transmitting welfare effects of automation. |
| Keywords: | automation; migration; technological progress; inequality |
| JEL: | J24 O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2024-04 |
| By: | Silliman, Mikko (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how worker power shapes the allocation of immigrants across firms, and the subsequent consequences of such sorting on firm performance and the careers of incumbent workers. Our analysis highlights several key results. First, unions push immigrants to enter less unionized, lower-paying, and lower-quality firms. Second, the less unionized firms are able to utilize the access to cheaper immigrant labor to scale up production, thereby outcompeting the more unionized firms and capturing market share. Third, incumbent workers in less unionized firms benefit by shifting into management positions and capturing some of the firm’s increased rents. Fourth, despite benefiting incumbent workers in less unionized firms, these workers are more likely to become union members themselves in response to greater contact with new immigrants. Broadly, our results cut across nearly all sectors, but are heightened in labor intensive firms, and muted in competitive markets. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Worker Power; Unions; Firms |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2024_013 |
| By: | Caroline Klein; Jonathan Smith |
| Abstract: | The Danish labour market is strong, but tensions have increased since the pandemic. The post-pandemic recovery boosted labour demand, but structural factors, such as late labour market entry by the young, changing skills requirements and obstacles to the recruitment of migrants, contribute to persistent shortages and impact the wider economy. Lowering the effective tax rate on labour income could reduce disincentives to higher working hours and to moving from part-time to full-time employment. Adapting the workplace to an ageing population and adjusting early retirement schemes could help to extend working lives. Targeting the tenth grade to students with greater learning needs, reducing student allowances and introducing an income-contingent loan system for master’s students could also encourage faster entry into the labour market. There is room to increase the recruitment of foreign-born workers, as well as improving their integration. The demographic, digital and green transitions will transform jobs and skills requirements, demanding an agile education and training system throughout the working life. Encouraging vocational education and training, notably by facilitating mobility between vocational and academic tracks, would ensure strong skills in areas where workers are lacking. |
| Keywords: | Denmark, education, gender, labour market, migration, pension, skills, taxation |
| JEL: | I28 J16 J20 J24 J26 J60 M53 |
| Date: | 2024–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1811-en |
| By: | Kensuke Ohtake |
| Abstract: | A new economic geography model is proposed in which the migration of mobile workers is proximate and perturbed by non-economic factors. The model consists of a tractable core-periphery model assuming a quasi-linear log utility function of consumers and an advection-diffusion equation governing the time evolution of a population distribution. The stability of a spatially homogeneous stationary solution and the large time behavior of solutions to the model on a one-dimensional periodic space are investigated. When the spatially homogeneous stationary solution is unstable, solutions starting around it are found to eventually form spatial patterns with several urban areas in which mobile workers agglomerate. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.05804 |