nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2024‒02‒26
ten papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura,  La Trobe University

  1. The Effect of Conflict on Ukrainian Refugees’ Return and Integration By Joop Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Yvonne Giesing; Panu Poutvaara
  2. The Impact of Technological Change on Immigration and Immigrants By Yvonne Giesing
  3. The Effects of Immigration in a Developing Country: Brazil in the Age of Mass Migration By Escamilla-Guerrero, David; Papadia, Andrea; Zimran, Ariell
  4. Age at Immigrant Arrival and Career Mobility: Evidence from Vietnamese Refugee Migration and the Amerasian Homecoming Act By Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Kendall E. Smith
  5. Discrimination and the Fiscal Benefits of Immigration By Nicholas Lawson
  6. The Effect of Migration on Careers of Natives: Evidence from Long-Term Care By Haan, Peter; Wnuk, Izabela
  7. Skilled Immigration Frictions as a Barrier for Young Firms By Federico S. Mandelman; Mehra Mishita; Hewei Shen
  8. Persistence in physicians’ locations:Long-run evidence from decentralised loan repayment programs By Anomita Ghosh
  9. Does the Restriction Policy of High-skill Immigrants Benefit Native Workers? By Takuma Sugiyama
  10. Migration, Remittances, and Wage-Inflation Spillovers: The Case of Albania By Lorena Skufi; Meri Papavangjeli; Adam Gersl

  1. By: Joop Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Yvonne Giesing; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: During 2022, about eight million Ukrainians were displaced from Ukraine due to the Russian invasion. Whether these individuals will return holds great significance for Ukraine’s reconstruction and is pivotal in shaping integration strategies in host countries. We used Facebook ads to recruit a panel of Ukrainian refugees in Europe, starting in June 2022. Six waves carried out in 2022 and 2023 allow us to examine the causal impact of local conflict intensity on refugees’ return intentions and integration. We find that less than 10% of Ukrainian refugees express a desire to permanently settle abroad. While the duration of time spent abroad leads to a higher proportion of refugees being employed, it does not diminish their intentions to return. Conflict intensity in one’s home municipality decreases current return intentions, but it has only a small impact on plans to return once safety is restored.
    Keywords: conflict, Ukraine, migration, refugees, return migration
    JEL: D74 F22 J24
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Yvonne Giesing
    Abstract: We study the effects of technological change on immigration flows as well as the labor market outcomes of migrants versus natives. We analyse and compare the effects of two different automation technologies: Industrial robots and artificial intelligence. We exploit data provided by the Industrial Federation of Robotics as well as online job vacancy data on Germany, a highly automated economy and the main destination for migrants in Europe. We apply an instrumental variable strategy and identify how robots decrease the wage of migrants across all skill groups, while neither having a significant impact on the native population nor immigration flows. In the case of AI, we determine an increase in the wage gap as well as the unemployment gap of migrant and native populations. This applies to the low-, medium- and high-skilled and is indicative of migrants facing displacement effects, while natives might benefit from productivity and complementarity effects. In addition, AI leads to a significant inflow of immigrants. Policymakers should devote special attention to the migration population when designing mitigation policies in response to technological change to avoid further increases in inequality between migrants and natives.
    Keywords: technological change, AI, robots, immigration
    JEL: F22 J15 J61 J78 O15 O33
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Escamilla-Guerrero, David (University of St Andrews); Papadia, Andrea (University of York); Zimran, Ariell (Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: The effects of immigration are reasonably well understood in developed countries, but they are far more poorly understood in developing ones despite the importance of these countries as immigrant destinations. We address this shortcoming by studying the effects of immigration to Brazil during the Age of Mass Migration on its agricultural sector in 1920. This context benefits from the widely recognized value of historical perspective in studies of the effects of immigration. But unlike studies that focus on the United States to understand the effects of migration from poor to rich countries, our context is informative of developing countries' experience because Brazil in this period was unique among major migrant destinations as a low-income country with a large agricultural sector and weak institutions. Instrumenting for a municipality's immigrant share using the interaction of aggregate immigrant inflows and the expansion of Brazil's railway network, we find that a greater immigrant share in a municipality led to an increase in farm values. We show that the bulk of the effect of immigration can be explained by more intense cultivation of land, which we attribute to temporary immigrants exerting greater labor effort than natives. Finally, we find that it is unlikely that immigration's effect on agriculture slowed Brazil's structural transformation.
    Keywords: immigration, developing countries, effects of immigration, age of mass migration, Brazil, agriculture
    JEL: F22 J61 N36 N56 O13 O15 Q15
    Date: 2024–01
  4. By: Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Kendall E. Smith
    Abstract: We study the long-run career mobility of young immigrants, mostly refugees, from Vietnam who moved to the United States during 1989-1995. This third and final migration wave of young Vietnamese immigrants was sparked by unexpected events that culminated in the Amerasian Homecoming Act. Characteristics of the wave also minimized selection effects regarding who migrated. Small differences in the age at arrival, specifically being 14-17 years old on entry compared to 18-21, resulted in substantial differences in future economic outcomes. Using Census Bureau data, we characterize the different career profiles of young vs. older immigrants, and we quantify explanatory factors like education, language fluency, and persistence from initial employers.
    JEL: F22 J15 J44 J61 J71 L26 M13 M51
    Date: 2024–01
  5. By: Nicholas Lawson (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal)
    Abstract: In recent decades, there has been a lengthy debate about the fiscal costs or benefits of immigration, and much of the literature has found fiscal impacts that are close to zero. However, these studies have ignored the possibility that immigrants may be victims of wage discrimination in the labour market, despite evidence of such discrimination in various countries. In the presence of such discrimination, existing estimates of the fiscal impact of immigration will be biased: if immigrants are paid less than their marginal products, then someone else is receiving that income ? mostly likely the firm?s owners or other workers ? and paying taxes on it, and that fiscal benefit is ignored by a model that disregards discrimination. In this paper, I evaluate the quantitative importance of this mechanism, by calibrating a search-and-matching model to Canadian data and simulating the fiscal impact of increases in immigration. When the model and calibration omits wage discrimination against immigrants, the average fiscal impact of immigration is negative, but it becomes positive if discrimination explains the wage gaps between natives and immigrant workers: at an economy-wide level, an annual fiscal cost of about $3 billion in the absence of discrimination becomes a fiscal benefit of about $4 billion in the presence of discrimination. My results indicate that wage discrimination against immigrants could significantly affect our estimates of the fiscal impact of immigration.
    Keywords: discrimination, immigration, fiscal benefits
    JEL: H27 J61 J79
    Date: 2024–01
  6. By: Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin); Wnuk, Izabela (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of increasing foreign staffing on the labor market outcomes of native workers in the German long-term care sector. Using administrative social security data covering the universe of long-term care workers and policy-induced exogenous variation, we find that increased foreign staffing reduces labor shortages but has diverging implications for the careers of native workers in the sector. While it causes a transition of those currently employed to jobs with better working conditions, higher wages, and non-manual tasks, it simultaneously diminishes re-employment prospects for the unemployed natives with LTC experience.
    Keywords: immigration, shift-share instrument, long-term care, EU enlargement
    JEL: J61 I11
    Date: 2024–01
  7. By: Federico S. Mandelman; Mehra Mishita; Hewei Shen
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of skilled immigration policy frictions in the United States on technology-intensive firms by age cohorts. We use firm-level data and a general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and exit. The empirical results show that skilled immigration policy frictions directly influence young firm dynamics in technology-intensive sectors by affecting firm survival. Our general equilibrium model incorporates skilled foreign labor and immigration policy frictions that mimic the H-1B policy and matches the age distribution of firms in high-technology sectors, showing also that increased entry of younger firms leads to a greater exit of older firms.
    Keywords: skilled immigration; start-ups; high-technology firms; firm dynamics
    JEL: F22 M13
    Date: 2024–02–05
  8. By: Anomita Ghosh (National Council of Applied Economic Research)
    Abstract: Do temporary labor supply programs cause physicians to move to and stay in undesirable areas? To what extent do these programs improve the health of the elderly and nonelderly population in those areas? I investigate these questions by studying state and local loan repayment programs for new eligible physicians which were rolled out over the last four decades in hundreds of counties across US states. Leveraging a new longitudinal dataset that tracks all physicians from medical school to mid-career, and exploiting both space and time variation, I find that these policies increase the number of physicians by 5% in treated counties relative to untreated counties in the state. The inflows of physicians are driven by higher paying eligible specialities. The programs continue to influence physicians’ location decisions even after they end effects persist for at least ten years after the minimum obligation period. Furthermore, the programs modestly spur trainees to enter eligible specialities in treated states by substituting away from ineligible specialities. Treated counties also see the elderly increase their visits to physicians while reducing those to the emergency rooms. Using patient level data from California, I demonstrate these results are not driven by selective admission of patients to treated hospitals. Overall, my findings emphasize the importance of policies that reduce financial frictions for highly skilled professionals –- in shaping not only their migration and labor market trajectories, but also the health outcomes of people in their communities.
    Keywords: labor supply, state and local government, migration flows, occupational choice, adverse health events, health expenditures
    JEL: H75 J24 J32 J61 I18
    Date: 2024–01–01
  9. By: Takuma Sugiyama (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: To protect native workers, discussions on immigration restrictions have emerged. However, limited studies have analyzed the economic impact of such restrictions on native workers. Past literature demonstrated a small effect of immigration restrictions on the labor outcomes of native workers, attributing it to capital substitution. Notably, this analysis focused on restrictions on low-skilled immigrants. Past literature of theoretical analysis highlighted that labor scarcity affects labor outcomes differently based on the substitutability of labor and capital. Anticipating a distinct impact, this paper examined the restriction of skilled immigrants exploiting the H-1B visa restrictions after 2004. The analysis, using triple differences estimation, revealed a significantly positive impact on labor outcomes of natives. Additionally, the visa restrictions positively impacted capital accumulation. These results suggest that the shortage of skilled labor supply induced capital accumulation. Nevertheless, capital investment could not fully adjust to the lack of labor supply, resulting in improved labor outcomes for natives.
    Keywords: Immigration; Labor Economics; Labor Policy; Technological Change
    JEL: J15 J18 J22 J31 J44 J61 O33
    Date: 2024–02
  10. By: Lorena Skufi (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Bank of Albania, Tirana, Albania); Meri Papavangjeli (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Bank of Albania, Tirana, Albania); Adam Gersl (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: Motivated by migration phenomena and wage-inflation spillovers, we investigate the relationship between the two and the inflationary remittances built-in pressures. We establish a feedback loop between migration and inflation, and specify a simple dynamic model to identify the pass-through. Our empirical approach focuses on the wage Phillips Curve, price setting under monopolistic competition, and state space model for the natural unemployment rate. Our estimates suggest that overshooting inflation and tight labor market conditions increase wage-inflation sensitivity. A continuous decline of population by 1% leads to 98 basis points (BP) of inflation pressures in the short-run and 23 BP in the long-run. Remittances induce excessive pressures by 18 BP on inflation. Supportive schemes such as an older retirement age and higher labor force participation rate can partially mitigate inflationary.
    Keywords: labor market, demographics, inflation, wage, remittances, feedback-loop
    JEL: J11 J21 J31 E24 E31
    Date: 2024–01

This nep-mig issue is ©2024 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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