nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2024‒01‒29
eleven papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura,  La Trobe University

  1. International Sanctions and Emigration By Gutmann, Jerg; Langer, Pascal; Neuenkirch, Matthias
  2. Immigration, monopsony and the distribution of firm pay By Michael Amior; Jan Stuhler
  3. Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy By Agostina Brinatti; Xing Guo
  4. Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia By Ninghui Li; Thomas Pihl Gade
  5. The transmission of preferences on immigration from the first to the second generation of immigrants: an analysis of the European Social Survey By Galli, Fausto; Russo, Giuseppe
  6. Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa By Nelly Exbrayat; Victor Stephane
  7. An Index for Climate-Induced Migration Uncertainty By Salisu, Sulaiman; Salisu, Afees
  8. Workplace Connections and Labor Migration: The Role of Information in Shaping Expectations By Michelle Hansch; Jan Nimczik; Alexandra Spitz-Oener
  9. Behavioral responses to wealth taxation: evidence from a Norwegian reform By Iacono, Roberto; Smedsvik, Bård
  10. Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation By Julien Champagne; Erik Ens; Xing Guo; Olena Kostyshyna; Alexander Lam; Corinne Luu; Sarah Miller; Patrick Sabourin; Joshua Slive; Temel Taskin; Jaime Trujillo; Shu Lin Wee
  11. The quality of universities as a factor in the spatial distribution of skilled labor By Borzykh, Ksenia (Борзых, Ксения); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий); Tylkin, Igor (Тылкин, Игорь)

  1. By: Gutmann, Jerg; Langer, Pascal; Neuenkirch, Matthias
    Abstract: In this first empirical analysis of how sanctions affect international migration, we apply two estimation strategies, a panel difference-in-differences model and an event study approach. Our dataset covers 79, 791 dyad-year observations, reflecting migration flows from 157 origin countries to 32 (largely OECD) destination countries between 1961 and 2018. The data supports that UN and joint EU-US sanctions increase emigration from target countries by around 20 percent. Our event study results for joint EU-US sanctions imply a gradual increase in emigration over the course of a sanction episode. The impact of UN sanctions on international migration is smaller and less persistent. Moreover, the effects are driven by target countries with fewer political rights and civil liberties, where emigration substitutes for the costly voicing of dissent. Finally, our results do not support systematic gender differences in the effect of sanctions on migration.
    Keywords: Exit, Gender Differences, International Sanctions, Migration, Voice
    JEL: F22 F51 J16 O15
    Date: 2024
  2. By: Michael Amior; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: We argue that the arrival of immigrants with low reservation wages can strengthen the monopsony power of firms. Firms can exploit "cheap" migrant labor by offering lower wages, though at the cost of forgoing potential native hires who demand higher wages. This monopsonistic trade-off can lead to large negative effects on native employment, which exceed those in competitive models, and which are concentrated among low-paying firms. To validate these predictions, we study changes in wage premia and employment across the firm pay distribution, during a large immigration wave in Germany. These adverse effects are not inevitable and may be ameliorated through policies which constrain firms' monopsony power over migrants.
    Keywords: immigration, monopsony, firms
    Date: 2024–01–04
  3. By: Agostina Brinatti; Xing Guo
    Abstract: We study how the effects of U.S. restrictions on skilled immigration affect the Canadian economy and American workers’ welfare. In 2017, the United States implemented a policy that tightened the eligibility criteria for U.S. visas. This was followed immediately by a trend break in the number of skilled immigrant admissions to Canada. We use quasi-experimental variation introduced by this policy over time and across immigrant groups, along with U.S. and Canadian visa applications data, to show that in 2018 visa applications for moving to Canada increased by 30% relative to the period before the restrictions were imposed. We then study how the restrictions affected Canadian firms. We use comprehensive Canadian administrative databases containing the universe of employer-employee linked records, immigration records, and international trade data. We find that Canadian firms that were relatively more exposed to the inflow of immigrants increased production, exports, and employment of Canadian workers. Finally, we study the policy’s impact on American workers by incorporating immigration policy into a multi-sector international trade model. With international trade, the increase in immigration to other countries due to the restrictions affects American wages through U.S. exports and consumption prices. We calibrate the model using our novel data and reduced-form estimates. We find that the welfare gains for American workers targeted for protection by the 2017 policy are up to 25% larger in a closed economy than they are in an open economy with the observed trade levels.
    Keywords: International topics; Labour markets; Recent economic and financial developments; Trade integration
    JEL: F16 F22 J61
    Date: 2023–12
  4. By: Ninghui Li; Thomas Pihl Gade
    Abstract: High emigration rates are a challenge in the Western Balkans. High emigration rates might lead to inadequate skilled labor and affect firm creation, capital formation, and economic convergence. The 2021 North Macedonia census reveals that more than 12.4% of North Macedonians live abroad. To assess the consequences, we estimate the impact of emigration on the number of firms and capital formation. Business dynamics can affect emigration reversely. To alleviate the endogeneity bias, we use a shift-share instrument with the historical diaspora networks and destination countries’ GDP growth rate as a source of exogenous variations. Our results show that (1) In the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 2.91% decrease in the number of firms in the area of origin; (2) The long-run effects of emigration on the number of firms are less negative than the short-run impacts; (3) Emigration mainly reduces the number of micro and small firms; (4) Emigration affects the number of firms and capital formation more in the industrial sector than the other sectors, through the skilled labor shortage channel. This paper contributes to the literature on emigration and provides implications and policy considerations for developing countries, where high emigration rates are prevalent.
    Keywords: Emigration; Labor market; Firm dynamics; Capital formation; North Macedonia; Panel data.
    Date: 2023–12–22
  5. By: Galli, Fausto; Russo, Giuseppe
    Abstract: This article studies the immigrants’ attitude towards immigration with special emphasis on the transition from the first to the second generations. We use European Social Survey data for the 2002-2020 period, which include many questions on the attitude to immigration, in order to estimate the impact of the immigrant status through ordered probit models. We find that first-generation immigrants support immigration more than natives. We also find that evidence of generational convergence towards natives’ opinions is limited. This result suggests that the effect of the immigration experience on preferences is persistent across generations.
    Keywords: immigrants, immigrant integration, attitudes/view towards immigration, intraEU migration
    JEL: J11 J61 Z13
    Date: 2023–06–06
  6. By: Nelly Exbrayat (Université Jean Monnet Saint-Etienne, CNRS, Université Lyon 2, GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne UMR 5824, F-42023, Saint-Etienne, France); Victor Stephane (Université Jean Monnet Saint-Etienne, CNRS, Université Lyon 2, GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne UMR 5824, F-42023, Saint-Etienne, France)
    Abstract: We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural-urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. We highlight two mechanisms explaining this negative effect: a change in population composition and a social network effect.
    Keywords: Crime; Migration; South Africa; Urbanization
    JEL: O18 R23
    Date: 2024
  7. By: Salisu, Sulaiman; Salisu, Afees
    Abstract: Climate change has had a significant impact on the world, and many efforts have been made to mitigate its risks. This study aims to create a new index that measures the uncertainty surrounding migration due to climate change. To do this, the study uses a variety of international newspapers with a global readership. Although climate change has increasingly spurred migration decisions in vulnerable areas, there is still a lack of quantitative research that explores this link. This is the contribution of our study. The evidence from the index shows an upward trend in climate-induced migration decisions, especially in the last two decades, which supports the motivation behind the study. Our index has several practical applications that can be useful for future research agendas.
    Keywords: News; Climate change; International migration; Uncertainty
    JEL: C15
    Date: 2023–12–08
  8. By: Michelle Hansch (HU Berlin); Jan Nimczik (ESMT, RFBerlin, IAB, IZA); Alexandra Spitz-Oener (HU Berlin, RFBerlin, IAB, IZA)
    Abstract: In a context where improved employment outcomes entail relocating to a new destination, how does information from former coworkers alter workers’ labor migration decisions? We explore this question using the unique backdrop of German reunification in the early 1990s. For former workers of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), improving employment outcomes typically meant relocating to West Germany, which most were reluctant to do. We show that information from former GDR coworkers in West Germany significantly increased the employment probability of East Germans in West Germany. To identify these network effects, we document and exploit that GDR workers were as-good-as randomly assigned to networks by the GDR system from the perspective of the West German market economy. We then establish that the networks only trigger migration responses among East Germans whose contacts had positive work experiences in the West and were similar in their earnings potential in the market-based economy of reunified Germany. These contacts, in essence, serve as role models for the workers’ prospects in the West, leading workers to trust the advice and assessments provided and ultimately altering the expected benefits from labor migration for the specific worker.
    Date: 2024–01–10
  9. By: Iacono, Roberto; Smedsvik, Bård
    Abstract: We analyze behavioral responses to wealth taxation, estimating the causal effects of a unique municipal wealth tax reform in Norway. We exploit variation from the single-period municipal reform reducing the marginal tax rate (MTR) on wealth exclusively in the northern Norwegian municipality of Bø from 0.85% to 0.35%, since 2021. Mimicking the behaviour of a tax haven, Bø represents the first municipality to unilaterally reduce the municipal wealth tax rate since the establishment of wealth taxation in Norway in 1892. We document a significant 66.6% increase in average taxable wealth in response to a 1 percentage point drop in the wealth tax rate. The elasticity of taxable wealth increases to 71.6% when focusing exclusively on wealth taxpayers. We also estimate a significant but more modest 10.3% jump in the weighted mass of wealth taxpayers in the treated municipality. Non-real effects of the reform dominate: mobility of wealthy taxpayers appears as the major behavioral response to the change in the net tax rate, accounting for a staggering 79% of the post-treatment total net wealth in the treated municipality (up from 19% in the pre-reform period). These results emerge in a context with third-party reported wealth data with negligible measurement error, limited evidence of bunching, highly enforced residence-based wealth taxation, and a low degree of out-migration rates.
    Keywords: wealth tax; administrative data; mobility effects
    JEL: H20 H21 H24 H26
    Date: 2023–12–01
  10. By: Julien Champagne; Erik Ens; Xing Guo; Olena Kostyshyna; Alexander Lam; Corinne Luu; Sarah Miller; Patrick Sabourin; Joshua Slive; Temel Taskin; Jaime Trujillo; Shu Lin Wee
    Abstract: We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
    Keywords: Domestic demand and components; Housing; Inflation and prices; Labour markets; Potential output; Recent economic and financial developments
    JEL: A10 E20 E31 J11 J15
    Date: 2023–12
  11. By: Borzykh, Ksenia (Борзых, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tylkin, Igor (Тылкин, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The problem of differentiation of HEIs by quality of educational, research and international activities and, as a consequence, of regional educational systems is relevant for Russia. To form a strong network of regional HEIs and to produce personnel whose competences meet the demands of the real sector of economy in the regions requires taking into account the spatial distribution of educational and postgraduate labour migration, specifics of location and quality of HEIs. The study obtained new statistical findings on the impact of the quality of regional educational systems on the volume of postgraduate migration and the propensity of university graduates to migrate to other regions in order to find employment. In addition, the contribution of universities to socio-economic development of regions ("third mission" of universities) has been empirically verified. It has been determined that improving the quality of universities has a positive impact on the propensity of graduates stay in regions where they receive their education, especially from "non-capital" regions. Universities can mitigate migration outflow of graduates and enhance human capital levels in regions by not only improving the quality and efficiency of education, but also by strengthening links with local labour markets through an active traineeship referral policy. Improving the quality of universities can be an additional tool of economic policy to increase regions' capacity to attract and retain qualified and educated young people, and to achieve more balanced spatial development of regions. In order to stimulate economic development in the regions, it is necessary to provide opportunities to improve the quality of the educational system and training of specialists demanded in regional labour markets, as well as to create conditions to encourage universities to provide scientific and expert analytical services to real sector organisations.
    Date: 2022–11–10

This nep-mig issue is ©2024 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.