nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒11‒13
thirteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura,  La Trobe University

  1. Projecting UK net migration By Tessa Hall; Alan Manning; Madeleine Sumption
  2. IGAD and forced migration response in the Horn of Africa : prospects and obstacles By Ahimbisibwe, Frank; Nkiko, Cedric M.
  3. Migration and Productivity in the UK: An Analysis of Employee Payroll Data By Nam, Hoseung; Portes, Jonathan
  4. Immigration Restriction and The Transfer of Cultural Norms Over Time and Boundaries:The Case of Religiosity By Fausto Galli; Simone Manzavino; Giuseppe Russo
  5. Out of the Shadows and into the Classroom: Immigrant Legalization, Hispanic Schooling and Hispanic Representation on School Boards By Navid Sabet
  6. Respecting her international obligations? Analyzing Rwanda’s 2014 Law Relating to Refugees By Ahimbisibwe, Frank
  7. Immigration in Iceland: Addressing challenges and unleashing the benefits By Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou
  8. Predicting irregular migration: High hopes, meagre results By Angenendt, Steffen; Koch, Anne; Tjaden, Jasper Dag
  9. Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration in the Canadian Atlantic Region: An Empirical Analysis Using the Focus Model By Dungan, Peter; Fang, Tony; Gunderson, Morley; Murphy, Steve
  10. The Fine Line between Nudging and Nagging: Increasing Take-up Rates through Social Media Platforms By Urbina, Maria José; Moya, Andres; Rozo, Sandra V.
  11. The direct and indirect economic consequences of climate damage in poor countries By John Knight
  12. How the reduction of Temporary Foreign Workers led to a rise in vacancy rates in the South Korea By Jeong, Deokjae
  13. Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts By Barberis, Virginia; Brouwer, Laura; von der Goltz, Jan; Hobden, Timothy; Saidi, Mira; Schuettler, Kirsten; Seyfert, Karin

  1. By: Tessa Hall; Alan Manning; Madeleine Sumption
    Abstract: Predicting migration is notoriously difficult but unavoidable if, for example, we want projections of future population. We present a new 'bottom-up' approach to projecting net migration, whereby emigration is estimated separately for each migrant category as a function of past immigration levels and the length of stay of migrants. This approach is applied to the UK context to project net migration to 2030. Based on the assumptions that (i) roughly current immigration levels continue, where this is plausible; and (ii) migrants stay in the UK at the same rate that Migrant Journey data has suggested they have done in the past, the model suggests that net migration will fall over the coming years. The largest part of this fall is due to emigration rising: high immigration today leads to higher emigration in future and hence a mechanical decline in net migration.
    Keywords: migration, demographics, UK policy
    Date: 2023–10–16
  2. By: Ahimbisibwe, Frank; Nkiko, Cedric M.
    Abstract: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has taken a role of responding to forced migration in the Horn of Africa where wars, conflicts and disasters have generated refugees, asylum seekers, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and returnees. This role is within the context of the 2016 United Nations (UN) New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants (NYD), the Comprehensive Refugee Response Forum (CRRF) and the 2018 Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) that call for a multi-stakeholder comprehensive approach to forced displacement. The paper argues that IGAD’s emerging policy frameworks and mechanisms like the 2019 Kampala Declaration on Jobs, Livelihoods, and Self-Reliance for Refugees, Returnees, and Host Communities, the 2017 Nairobi Declaration on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and the Djibouti Declaration of the Regional Ministerial Conference on Refugee Education show the potential and prospects of an authority willing to play an active role in responding to forced migration. Moreover, IGAD can tap into its regional diplomacy, political leverage and ability to mobilize support from member states. Also, IGAD was recognized at the Global Refugee Forum (GRF) organized by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other stakeholders in 2019 for its role in supporting the NYD, CRRF and GCR. However, a number of obstacles pose a danger to undermining the organization’s efforts, including the nature of the refugee problem, constraints of member states and the authority’s limitations like declarations not legally binding, capacity gaps, the authority being more of a convener than an implementer and limited consultations of member states. IGAD is likely to fail if these obstacles are not addressed.
    Keywords: IGAD, UNHCR, Horn of Africa, forced migration, displacement, refugees, host communities
    Date: 2023–10
  3. By: Nam, Hoseung (King's College London); Portes, Jonathan (King's College London)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of immigration on productivity in the UK, using newly published ONS data on employees of non-UK origin by region and sector. Consistent with earlier research, we find some evidence of a positive association between non-EU migration and productivity, and some weaker evidence of a negative association between EU migration and productivity, although results are sensitive to the specifications used.
    Keywords: migration, productivity, labour markets, Brexit
    JEL: F22 J48 J61 J68
    Date: 2023–09
  4. By: Fausto Galli (University of Salerno); Simone Manzavino (University of Salerno); Giuseppe Russo (University of Salerno, CSEF, and GLO)
    Abstract: We study the effect of an immigration ban on the self-selection of immigrants along cultural traits, and the transmission of these traits to the second generation. We show theoretically that restricting immigration incentivizes to settle abroad individuals with higher attachment to their origin culture, who, under free mobility, would rather choose circular migration. Once abroad, these individuals tend to convey their cultural traits to their children. As a consequence, restrictive immigration policies can foster the diffusion of cultural traits across boundaries and generations. We focus on religiosity, which is one of the most persistent and distinctive cultural traits, and exploit the 1973 immigration ban in West Germany (Anwerbestopp) as a natural experiment. Through a diff-in-diff analysis, we find that second generations born to parents treated by the Anwerbestopp show higher religiosity.
    Keywords: second-generation immigrants, religiosity, immigration policy, cultural transmission.
    JEL: D91 F22 J15 K37 Z13
    Date: 2023–09–29
  5. By: Navid Sabet
    Abstract: I exploit the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), which legalized millions of Hispanic migrants in the USA, to study the impact of immigrant legalization on schooling outcomes. Although undocumented migrants are entitled to public education, I find significant post-legalization increases in student enrollment and student-to-teacher ratios in public schools with greater exposure to IRCA migrants. This effect is driven by increased Hispanic enrollment, while whites sort out of public education and into private schooling. The IRCA differentially increases Hispanic school board members and school expenditure, highlighting legal status as a driver of Hispanic human capital accumulation and representation.
    Keywords: schooling, human capital, minority representation, legal status
    JEL: I21 J15 H52
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Ahimbisibwe, Frank
    Abstract: Rwanda enacted the 1966 presidential decree on the reintegration of refugees and later the 1984 ministerial decree on identity papers for refugees as its first laws in dealing with refugees. However, the above decrees were meant for regulating the reintegration of Rwandan refugees returning from exile. The first law to deal with refugees from other countries was enacted in 2001 and later modified and complemented by a 2006 Law. In 2003 a new Constitution (amended in 2015) with a comprehensive Bill of Rights was promulgated. Because of these developments, it was necessary to enact a new law and make it fully compatible with Rwanda’s national, regional and international obligations. As a result, in May 2014, Rwanda passed the Law Relating to Refugees which integrates its obligations into the refugee legal regime. This article critically reviews the 2014 Law Relating to Refugees and Rwanda’s refugee obligations in light of its international human rights obligations. The article argues that the 2014 Law substantially reflects Rwanda’s international and regional obligations under the relevant refugee and human rights instruments, but finds that some gaps, such as the non-recognition of environmental refugees, a weak appeals mechanism and the need to clarify the role of the department in charge of immigration and emigration in reviewing asylum application.Length: 25 pages
    Keywords: forced displacement, refugees, refugee rights, refugee law, human rights law, obligations, Rwanda
    Date: 2023–10
  7. By: Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou
    Abstract: Immigration has increased rapidly since the late 1990s, driven largely by strong economic growth and high standards of living. By mid-2023, foreign citizens made up around 18% of the population. This has brought important economic benefits to Iceland, including by boosting the working age population and helping the country to meet labour demands in fast-growing sectors. However, there are important challenges regarding the integration of immigrants and their children that need to be addressed through a comprehensive approach, helping to make the most of immigration. Successful labour market integration of immigrants requires more effective language training for adults and an improvement in skills recognition procedures. At the same time, immigrants need more opportunities to work in the public sector and the adult learning system should be adjusted to better encompass their training needs. Strengthening language skills is key to improving the weak educational outcomes of immigrant students. Enhancing teachers’ preparedness to accommodate students’ diverse educational needs is another pre-requisite. Strengthening integration further hinges upon meeting the housing needs of the immigrant population, including through an increase in the supply of social and affordable housing.
    Keywords: education, housing, immigration, integration, labour market, language training, skills
    JEL: F22 J24 J61
    Date: 2023–11–03
  8. By: Angenendt, Steffen; Koch, Anne; Tjaden, Jasper Dag
    Abstract: German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.
    Keywords: Migration, Migrationspolitik, Wanderungsprognosen, Vorhersage, Vorausschau, Displacement Forecasting, Krisenfrüherkennung, Risikoanalyse, Künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen, Agentenbasierte Modellierung, predicting irregular migration, forecast, quantitative migration prediction, UNHCR, IOM, Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN), Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM), Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), Frontex, Pact on Migration and Asylum
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Dungan, Peter (University of Toronto); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Gunderson, Morley (University of Toronto); Murphy, Steve (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: We simulate the impact of an increase in immigration into the Atlantic provinces based on the FOCUS macro-econometric model at the University of Toronto. That national model was adapted to reflect the regional dimensions of the Atlantic provinces. We find robust evidence of positive outcomes for the Atlantic region so long as it is part of a broader increase in immigration for the country as a whole. The positive outcome encompasses higher GDP and GDP per capita, higher consumption, and improved government fiscal balances at both the federal and provincial levels that could in turn be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services. These benefits could be enhanced further by carefully targeting new immigrants for needed skills and for their likelihood of remaining in the Atlantic region.
    Keywords: immigration, macroeconomic impacts, Atlantic Canada, FOCUS Model
    JEL: J11 J15 J18 J24
    Date: 2023–10
  10. By: Urbina, Maria José (World Bank); Moya, Andres (Universidad de los Andes); Rozo, Sandra V. (World Bank)
    Abstract: This study assesses if nudges in the form of informational videos sent via WhatsApp are effective in boosting take-up rates among vulnerable populations, specifically in the context of a regularization program for Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. The study randomly assigned 1, 375 eligible migrants to receive one of three informational videos or be in a control group. The videos aimed at solving issues related to awareness, trust, and bottlenecks in the step-by-step registration. The main results indicate that program take-up rates for individuals who received any video, were eight percentage points lower compared to the control group. The effects are mostly driven by the treated individuals who received the links but did not watch the videos, who are older, busier, and with less internet access relative to other treated individuals. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of iterative WhatsApp surveys in collecting data from hard-to-reach populations. It finds that iterative WhatsApp surveys had low retention rates, and iterative contacts do not helped to reduce attrition.
    Keywords: refugees, amnesties, program take-up
    JEL: D72 F02 F22 O15 R23
    Date: 2023–10
  11. By: John Knight
    Abstract: The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.
    Keywords: climate change , international migration , domestic and international conflicts , global warming , displacement of population
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Jeong, Deokjae
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of a reduction in low-skilled Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs) on the vacancies in the manufacturing sectors in South Korea. Using a quasi-experimental event, the initiation of a quarantine policy due to COVID-19 in January 2020, the study aims to isolate the causal effect of TFWs on labor shortages. The paper employs vacancies as a proxy measure for labor shortages and focuses on E9 visa holders, who constitute the majority of TFWs in the South Korean manufacturing sector. Through Difference-in-Difference (DD) regressions, the study finds that sectors heavily reliant on TFWs experienced a significant increase in vacancies a year after the COVID-19 outbreak. The results suggest that firms faced challenges in finding full-time workers, leading to a higher ratio of part-time to full-time employees. The paper also utilizes Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Local Projection (LP) methods to reinforce these findings. Our results contribute to the existing literature by confirming that a reduction in TFWs results in an immediate increase in vacancies, and by challenging the claim that native workers can readily fill the positions left vacant by TFWs, especially in terms of full-time employment.
    Keywords: labor shortage, vacancy rate, immigration, temporary foreign workers
    JEL: J18 J21 J22 J23 J61 J63
    Date: 2022–07–19
  13. By: Barberis, Virginia; Brouwer, Laura; von der Goltz, Jan; Hobden, Timothy; Saidi, Mira; Schuettler, Kirsten; Seyfert, Karin
    Abstract: The need for jobs support in economies affected by forced displacement and conflict is high, with forced displacement at its highest level since the Second World War and poverty expected to be increasingly concentrated in economies affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). Developing impactful and cost-effective jobs support requires good data on program costs and benefits, but such information remains notoriously scarce in FCV and displacement situations. This study presents insights from a new dataset of cost and results in the jobs support project portfolios of Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the World Bank in six low- and middle-income economies affected by conflict and displacement. It analyzes results on the cost-efficiency of jobs support to inform design and budget planning, as well as results on cost effectiveness, with a view to informing choice between different modalities while taking into account additionality and sustainability of outcomes achieved.
    Keywords: Forced displacement; fragility, conflict and violence; jobs; cost-effectiveness.
    Date: 2022

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