nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒08‒14
nine papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Law-Abiding Immigrants: The Incarceration Gap Between Immigrants and the US-born, 1850–2020 By Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Elisa Jácome; Santiago Pérez; Juan David Torres
  2. Migration, Search and Skill Heterogeneity By Myrto Oikonomou
  3. Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe By Jäger, Julian
  4. Environmental Migration and Labor Market By JANG, Youngook
  5. Emigrant Voyages from the UK to North America and Australasia, 1853-1913 By Hatton, Timothy J.
  6. Shift or replenishment? Reassessing the prospect of stable Spanish bilingualism across contexts of ethnic change By Ruy Manrique; Ted Mouw
  7. "From Aspirations for Climate Action to the Reality of Climate Disasters": Can Migrants Play Key Role in Disaster Response? By Farid Makhlouf; Refk Selmi; Kamal Kasmaoui
  8. The Macroeconomics of Skills Mismatch in the Presence of Emigration By George Liontos; Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis; Eugenia Vella
  9. Remote Work, Foreign Residents, and the Future of Global Cities By Joao Guerreiro; Sergio Rebelo; Pedro Teles

  1. By: Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Elisa Jácome; Santiago Pérez; Juan David Torres
    Abstract: We combine full-count Census data (1850–1940) with Census/ACS samples (1950–2020) to provide the first nationally representative long-run series (1850–2020) of incarceration rates for immigrants and the US-born. As a group, immigrants had higher incarceration rates than US-born white men before 1870, similar rates between 1880-1950, and lower rates since 1960. Although there are substantial differences in incarceration by origin country, the relative decline in incarceration since 1960 occurred among immigrants from all sending regions. This decline cannot be explained by changes in immigrants’ observable characteristics or immigration policy, but may reflect immigrants’ resilience to economic shocks.
    JEL: K4 N31
    Date: 2023–07
  2. By: Myrto Oikonomou
    Abstract: Cross-border migration can act as an important adjustment mechanism to country-specific shocks. Yet, depending on who moves, it can have unintended consequences for business cycle stability. This paper argues that the skill composition of migration plays a critical role. When migration flows become more concentrated in skilled labor an important trade-off arises. On the one hand, migration releases unemployment pressures for the origin countries. On the other hand, it generates negative compositional effects (the so-called “brain drain” effects) and skill imbalances, which reduce supply capacity in origin countries. This paper analyses quantitatively the impact of cyclical migration in an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous migration flows, trade linkages, search and matching frictions, and skill heterogeneity. I apply this framework to the case of the Greek emigration wave following the European Debt Crisis. What I find is that emigration flows implied strong negative effects for capital formation, leading to more than a 15 percentage point drop in investment. Rather than stabilizing the Greek business cycle, labor mobility led to a deeper and more protracted recession.
    Keywords: Migration; Matching Frictions; Skill Heterogeneity
    Date: 2023–06–30
  3. By: Jäger, Julian
    Abstract: My paper analyzes the link between immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe. I assemble a unique data set on the share of foreigners for 356 regions in 26 European countries and construct a novel scale for the anti-immigrant position of political parties. I find that Europeans are less supportive of anti-immigrant parties in regions with a higher share of foreigners, consistent with group contact theory. The negative association is driven by Europeans with proredistribution attitudes and is stronger among those with tertiary education, who live in the city, are in the labor force, of younger age, and female. I address several endogeneity concerns, e.g., using a shift-share instrumental variable approach, which provides evidence for a causal channel.
    Keywords: Europe, Immigration, Political preferences
    JEL: D72 J15 Z13
    Date: 2023
    Abstract: This report highlights the significant impact of climate change on migration patterns and the need for Korea to prepare for the influx of climate migrants. While natural disasters have historically caused population displacement, the effects of climate change-induced slow-onset changes, such as rising sea levels and droughts, are increasingly evident. Environmental migration disrupts social, labor, and industrial structures in sending and receiving countries, particularly through labor migration, which affects wages, employment rates, production costs, commodity prices, and business cycles. The study by Jang et al. (2022) investigates regional patterns of environmental migration and the potential labor market implications. Although Korea is currently unaffected, it is projected to experience an increase in climate migrants in the near future, as Southeast Asian and South Asian countries facing climate and environmental challenges contribute significantly to Korea's migrant population. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the socio-economic characteristics of potential migrants to develop appropriate policies to mitigate the negative impacts of this anticipated influx. By proactively addressing these challenges, Korea can better prepare for the future dynamics of climate-induced migration and its impact on society, labor markets, and industrial sectors.
    Keywords: migration; climate change; environmental migration; labor market
    Date: 2023–07–12
  5. By: Hatton, Timothy J. (University of Essex)
    Abstract: Studies of the determinants of emigration from Europe from 1850 to 1913 include the gains to migrants but often neglect the costs. One component of those costs is earnings forgone on the voyage. In this paper I present new data on the voyage times for emigrants from the UK traveling to the United States and to Australia. Between 1853-7 and 1909-13 the voyage time from Liverpool to New York fell from 38 days to just 8 days (or 79%). Over the same years, the emigrant voyage to Sydney fell by more in absolute terms, from 105 days to 46, but by less in relative terms (56%). Differences in profiles of travel times are explained with a focus on the relative efficiency of sail and steam and (for Australia) the use of the Suez Canal. Data series for fare prices and foregone wage costs are combined to create new series on the 'total' cost of emigrant voyages. Econometric analysis of UK emigration to the US, Canada and Australia supports the view that time costs mattered.
    Keywords: international migration, steam ships, voyage times
    JEL: F22 O33 N73
    Date: 2023–07
  6. By: Ruy Manrique; Ted Mouw
    Abstract: Much of the existing literature on Latinos’ use of Spanish claims that a general pattern of intergenerational decline in the use of Spanish will produce an overall shift away from Spanish use in the U.S. (Rumbaut, Massey, and Bean 2006; Veltman 1983b, 1990). In contrast, recent works emphasize the importance of the social and linguistic context in reinforcing the use of Spanish as well as (pan)ethnic identities among U.S.-born Latinos (Linton 2004; Linton and Jiménez 2009; Stevens 1992). This literature suggests conditions under which Spanish-English bilingualism might become stable at the level of metropolitan areas; however, such conditions depend on how immigration shapes the context of language use for native-born Latinos. Given the declining levels of immigration from Latin America, will bilingualism subside in the U.S., or have certain communities created conditions in which bilingualism can be stable? Using geocoded data from restricted access versions of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the American Community Survey (ACS), we model the probability of Spanish-English bilingualism among second- and third-generation Latinos using multilevel models with contextual measures of immigration and language use at both the neighborhood and metropolitan levels. We find evidence that U.S.-born Latinos are heavily influenced by the prevalence of Spanish use among U.S. born Latinos at both the metropolitan and neighborhood levels. Further, the proportion of foreign-born Latinos has little effect on the native born, after controlling for Spanish use among U.S, -born Latinos. These results are a first step in understanding the link between ethnic or panethnic contexts and language practices, and also in producing a better characterization of stable bilingualism that can be tested quantitatively.
    Date: 2023–06
  7. By: Farid Makhlouf (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School); Refk Selmi (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School); Kamal Kasmaoui (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School)
    Abstract: Climate change and extreme weather events have led to a surge in natural hazards in Pakistan that have escalated into humanitarian disasters. Prior studies have largely documented the significant role of remittances in dealing with unforeseen natural disasters. This paper investigates the reaction of Pakistani migrants to natural disasters via remittances from 1972 to 2023. Using a flexible event-study methodology suited to examining the changes in remittances beyond expectation during a specific period of time, the paper compares the responses of remittances in different host countries namely Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Europe and North America Countries. Our findings reveal that the response is significant two (one) months after the events for GCC (Europe and North America), and tends to dissipate five months from the disaster occurrence (except for GCC). The intensity and the persistence of remittances'responsiveness (abnormal returns and volatility) depends on the nature of disasters, host countries'features and the economic conditions of migrants limiting their ability to send additional financial resources at home.Overall, migrant remittances may act as immediate and direct aid to households harmfully affected by disasters, substituting for the delayed arrival of official aid.
    Keywords: Remittances, Natural Disaster, Pakistan, Event study methodology, Abnormal returns, Volatility
    Date: 2023–06–22
  8. By: George Liontos (Athens University of Economics and Business); Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis (Athens University of Economics and Business); Eugenia Vella
    Abstract: Employment in mismatch (low-skill) jobs is a potential factor in the emigration of highly qualified workers. At the same time, high-skilled emigration and emigration of mismatch workers can free up positions for stayers. In bad times, it could also amplify demand losses and the unemployment spell, which in turn affects the mismatch rate. In this paper, we investigate the link between vertical skills mismatch and emigration of both non-mismatch and mismatch workers in a DSGE model. The model features also skill and wealth heterogeneous households, capital-skill complementarity (CSC) and labor frictions. We find that an adverse productivity shock reduces investment and primarily hurts the high-skilled who react by turning to both jobs abroad and mismatch jobs in the domestic labor market. A negative shock to government spending crowds-in investment and primarily hurts the low-skilled who thus turn to jobs abroad. Following the fiscal cut, the high-skilled instead reduce their search for mismatch employment and later they also reduce their search for jobs abroad.
    Keywords: vertical skills mismatch, under-employment, emigration, capital-skill complementarity, RBC model
    Date: 2023–05–30
  9. By: Joao Guerreiro; Sergio Rebelo; Pedro Teles
    Abstract: As remote work opportunities expand, more people are seeking residence in foreign destinations. The resulting surge in foreign residents generates capital gains for property owners but negatively impacts renters and creates potentially important production, congestion, and amenities externalities. We study the optimal policy toward foreign residents in a model with key features emphasized in policy discussions. Using this model, we provide sufficient statistics to evaluate the impact of an influx of foreign residents and to calculate the tax/transfer policies required to implement the optimal policy. This policy involves implementing transfers to internalize agglomeration, congestion, and other potential externalities. Importantly, we find that it is not optimal to restrict, tax, or subsidize home purchases by foreign residents.
    JEL: H00 J61 R3 R58
    Date: 2023–06

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