nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒07‒17
eleven papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Forced Migration and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Postwar Hungary By Daniel Borbely; Ross Mckenzie
  2. Selective Migration and Economic Development: A Generalized Approach By Cha’Ngom, Narcisse; Deuster, Christoph; Docquier, Frédéric; Machado, Joël
  3. The Confederate Diaspora By Samuel Bazzi; Andreas Ferrara; Martin Fiszbein; Thomas P. Pearson; Patrick A. Testa
  4. Why do rural people temporarily migrate to other rural areas? Insights from northern Bangladesh By Rana, Sohel; Qaim, Matin
  5. Religion and Prosocial Behavior of Immigrants By David Gomtsyan
  6. Informal employment from migration shocks By Marica Valente; Timm Gries; Lorenzo Trapani
  7. ICT, Online Search Behavior, and Remittances: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic By Roland-Holst, David; Karymshakov, Kamalbek; Sulaimanova, Burulcha; Sultakeev, Kadyrbek
  8. Development Delays, Illegal Immigration and the Informal Sector in French Guiana By Moustapha Aladji; Mickael Cita; Gaelle Lebeau
  9. Expecting Brexit and UK Migration: Should I Go? By Di Iasio, Valentina; Wahba, Jackline
  10. Narratives on migration and political polarization: How the emphasis in narratives can drive us apart By Eugenio Levi; Michael Bayerlein; Gianluca Grimalda; Tommaso Reggiani
  11. Examining the Determinants of Managers' Hiring Attitudes Towards Immigrant Workers: Evidence from an Employer Survey By Fang, Tony; Zhang, Tingting; Hartley, John

  1. By: Daniel Borbely (University of Dundee); Ross Mckenzie (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: We investigate the persistent effects of forced migration on sending economies using the postWW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that, while towns heavily affected by the expulsions were quite similar to other areas in terms of economic activity and labour market composition before the war, the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity, and an increasing reliance on agricultural labour. We further show long-term negative correlations between forced migration and local trust levels, suggesting that the expulsion of Germans also affected the local social fabric. Our analysis reveals that forced migration can cause lasting regional inequalities in sending economies.
    Keywords: forced migration, economic development, minorities, trust, persistence, regional inequality
    JEL: N34 N94 R11 O12 O15
    Date: 2021–11
  2. By: Cha’Ngom, Narcisse (LISER); Deuster, Christoph (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)); Docquier, Frédéric (LISER); Machado, Joël (LISER)
    Abstract: International migration is a selective process that induces ambiguous effects on human capital and economic development in countries of origin. We establish the theoretical micro-foundations of the relationship between selective emigration and human capital accumulation in a multi-country context. We then embed this migration-education nexus into a development accounting framework to quantify the effects of migration on development and inequality. We find that selective emigration stimulates human capital accumulation and the income of those remaining behind in a majority of countries, in particular in the least developed ones. The magnitude of the effect varies according to the level of development, the dyadic structure of migration costs, and the education policy. Emigration significantly reduces cross-country income inequality and the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty.
    Keywords: human capital, migration, selection, brain drain, brain gain, global inequality
    JEL: J61 O15 E24 J24
    Date: 2023–06
  3. By: Samuel Bazzi; Andreas Ferrara; Martin Fiszbein; Thomas P. Pearson; Patrick A. Testa
    Abstract: This paper shows how white migration out of the postbellum South diffused and entrenched Confederate culture across the United States at a critical juncture of westward expansion and postwar reconciliation. These migrants laid the groundwork for Confederate symbols and racial norms to become pervasive nationally in the early 20th century. Occupying positions of authority, former slaveholders played an outsized role in this process. Beyond memorializing the Confederacy, migrants exacerbated racial violence, boosted novel forms of exclusion, and compounded Black disadvantage outside the South. Moving West, former Confederates had larger effects in frontier communities lacking established culture and institutions. Over time, they continued to transmit norms to their children and non-Southern neighbors. The diaspora legacy persists over the long run, shaping racial inequities in labor, housing, and policing. Together, our findings offer a new perspective on migration, elite influence, and the interplay between culture and institutions in the nation-building process.
    JEL: D72 J15 J18 N31 N32 P16
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Rana, Sohel; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Migration from rural to urban areas is common in many low- and middle-income countries. However, temporary migration from rural to other rural areas also occurs and is not well understood. We explore what drives rural people in Bangladesh to migrate temporarily to other rural areas, rather than to urban areas where wages are higher. Temporary migration is influenced by income shortfalls during agricultural lean periods and various other sociodemographic factors. The decision for rural destinations is influenced by a lack of skills diversity, social networks, comparative income-cost ratios, and urban negativity. The notion that migration is primarily a rural-urban move needs re-evaluation.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2023–06–14
  5. By: David Gomtsyan (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: Ramadan has attracted negative publicity and criticism in Western countries with large Muslim immigrant populations. Are these attitudes justified? Does the behavior of Muslim immigrants negatively affect host populations during this period? We investigate one important dimension of immigrant behavior that is a source of concern: criminal activity. Using Swiss data, we document that during Ramadan, crimes committed by Muslim migrants decline by 11%. We provide evidence that changes in the beliefs and values of immigrants play an essential role in explaining the overall result.
    Abstract: Le Ramadan a suscité de nombreuses critiques et fait l'objet d'une publicité négative dans les pays occidentaux comptant d'importantes populations d'immigrés musulmans. Ces attitudes sont-elles justifiées ? Le comportement des immigrants musulmans a-t-il un effet négatif sur les populations d'accueil pendant cette période ? Nous étudions une dimension essentielle du comportement des immigrés, source de préoccupations : l'activité criminelle. D'après des données recueillies en Suisse, il apparaît que, pendant le Ramadan, les crimes commis par les migrants musulmans diminuent de 11%. Notre étude apporte la preuve que ce sont les changements dans les croyances et valeurs des immigrants qui expliquent ce résultat global.
    Keywords: Immigration, Crime, Islam, Ramadan, Religious practice, Criminalité, Pratique religieuse
    Date: 2023–01–20
  6. By: Marica Valente; Timm Gries; Lorenzo Trapani
    Abstract: We propose a new approach to detect and quantify informal employment resulting from irregular migration shocks. Focusing on a largely informal sector, agriculture, and on the exogenous variation from the Arab Spring wave on southern Italian coasts, we use machine-learning techniques to document abnormal increases in reported (vs. predicted) labor productivity on vineyards hit by the shock. Misreporting is largely heterogeneous across farms depending e.g. on size and grape quality. The shock resulted in a 6% increase in informal employment, equivalent to one undeclared worker for every three farms on average and 23, 000 workers in total over 2011-2012. Misreporting causes significant increases in farm profits through lower labor costs, while having no impact on grape sales, prices, or wages of formal workers.
    Keywords: Informal employment, Migration shocks, Farm labor, Machine learning
    JEL: F22 J61 J43 J46 C53
    Date: 2023–09
  7. By: Roland-Holst, David (Asian Development Bank Institute); Karymshakov, Kamalbek (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sulaimanova, Burulcha (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sultakeev, Kadyrbek (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Infrastructure has always been a fundamental driver of long-term economic growth, but in recent decades information and communication technology (ICT) has supported and accelerated the growth of the global economy in ways beyond the imagining of our ancestors. We examine the role of ICT infrastructure in facilitating labor markets' access and remittance flows for workers from the Kyrgyz Republic. Using a combination of traditional high frequency macroeconomic data and real time internet search information from Google Trends, we take a novel approach to explaining the inflow of remittances to a developing country. In the first attempt to model remittance behavior with GTI data in this context, we use a gravity model. We also attempt to account for both origin and destination labor market conditions, using Kyrgyz language search words to identify both push and pull factors affecting migrant decisions.
    Keywords: migration; remittances; infrastructure; internet
    JEL: F22 F24 L86 O18 O33
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: Moustapha Aladji (MINEA - UG - Université de Guyane); Mickael Cita (CREDDI - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Droit du Développement Insulaire [UR7_2] - UA - Université des Antilles); Gaelle Lebeau
    Abstract: The arrival of a population on a territory brings a potential source of additional work that overall allows the host country to increase its growth as shown by Chojnicki and Ragot (2012) in their study. However, the France has the particularity of being present on different continents and thus holding territories with great disparity. Through this article, we want to focus on immigration in French Guiana, looking for explanatory factors for the reasons for immigration to this territory. At the same time, we are asked about the contributions of this immigration to know if it represents an asset or a constraint for the development of the territory. The answer is obviously not binary, which gives more interest and complexity to the question. Thus, we were able to carry out a first theoretical analysis in order to grasp the most relevant elements to be studied in order to set up the empirical analysis. Then, we chose a Probit model that we then confronted with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The theoretical analysis allowed us to highlight various elements of informal integration (housing, working conditions) that also promote a form of precariousness. Empirical analysis, she rather highlighted the correlated factors that support this immigration rate. Finally, we observed the case of the Hmong population settled in French Guiana for several decades, which represent a relatively successful example of immigration with a positive economic impact.
    Keywords: Development Informal work Precariousness Underground economy Unemployment Abbreviations: OFPRA: Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons IM: Immigration ST: Status RE: Income AGE: Age
    Date: 2022–09–15
  9. By: Di Iasio, Valentina (University of Southampton); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change.
    Keywords: UK migration, EU migration, Brexit
    JEL: F22 J61 J48
    Date: 2023–05
  10. By: Eugenio Levi (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Piazza dell’Universita 1, 00139 Bolzano, Italy; Masaryk University, Czechia); Michael Bayerlein (German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4, 10719 Berlin, Germany); Gianluca Grimalda (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany); Tommaso Reggiani (Cardiff University, Colum Road CF103EU, Cardiff, UK; Masaryk University, Czechia; IZA, Germany)
    Abstract: Nowadays, immigration is a polarizing topic in politics. In this paper, we investigate how much this political polarization is driven by the depiction narratives made of immigrants vis-a-vis the natives. Furthermore, we look at whether polarization is rooted in private preferences over narratives or in how they are endorsed in public settings and social media. Our empirical strategy consists of a survey experiment in the 2021 German elections and a field experiment on Twitter in which we manipulate the “pinned tweets” of experimental users. To build our narratives, we manipulate either the policy position — hostile toward or accepting migration — or an emphasis on the out-group, on the in-group, or on economic reciprocity. We find that political polarization is driven both by the policy position and emphasis in narratives. On Twitter, the out-group emphasis drives supporters of different parties apart, and the corresponding hostile narrative becomes the only one going viral. In the survey, right-wing participants prefer the reciprocity emphasis more, but we still find evidence of more polarization when allowing the participants to go public.
    Keywords: immigration, narratives, political polarization, economic reciprocity, experiments, Twitter
    JEL: D72 D91 C93
    Date: 2023–06
  11. By: Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Zhang, Tingting (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Hartley, John (Memorial University of Newfoundland)
    Abstract: Using a representative survey of 801 employers across Atlantic Canada, we empirically test various factors associated with employer hiring attitudes towards international migrants. Our results indicate that employers who hired international immigrants in the past 12 months exhibited more positive attitudes towards them, consistent with the contact theory. We also find provincial variations in hiring attitudes in that employers in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and PEI had more positive attitudes than those in New Brunswick. In addition, employers in the public sector organizations held more positive perceptions than those in the private sector. Although the coefficients for rural-urban divide and organizational sizes have the expected signs but most of them are statistically insignificant. There are no clear patterns cross industries. Interpretations for our main findings are offered, along with policy and practice implications
    Keywords: international immigrants, labour and skill shortages, employer hiring attitudes, employer survey, Atlantic Canada
    JEL: J23 J61 J63 J68
    Date: 2023–06

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