nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒06‒19
thirteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. More Benefits, Fewer Children: How Regularization Affects Immigrant Fertility By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Ibanez, Ana Maria; Rozo, Sandra V.; Traettino, Salvador
  2. Electoral Effects of Integrating Forced Migrants: Evidence from a Southern Country By Rozo, Sandra V.; Quintana, Alejandra; Urbina, Maria José
  3. The labor market impact of a taxi driver’s license By Karadja, Mounir; Sundberg, Anton
  4. Modeling Migration Dynamics in Stochastic Labor Supply Forecasting By Hellwagner, Timon; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Enzo
  5. Age at Immigration and the Intergenerational Income Mobility of the 1.5 Generation By Marie Connolly; Catherine Haeck; Anne Mei Le Bourdais-Coffey
  6. Trade-offs between international migration and agricultural commercialization: evidence frrom Kyrgyzstan By Kimsanova, Barchynai; Sanaev, Golib; Herzfeld, Thomas
  7. Immigration, Household Production, and Native Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Survey of a Global Phenomenon By Patricia Cortés
  8. Roots and Recourse Mortgages: Handing back the keys By Jorge E. Galán; Matías Lamas; Raquel Vegas
  9. Individualized benefits and access to active labor market programs boost refugee women’s economic integration By Bratu, Cristina; Martén, Linna; Ottosson, Lillit
  10. Roots of Inequality By Galor, Oded: Klemp, Marc; Wainstock, Daniel C.
  11. Remittances and Child Labor in Pakistan: A Tale of Complementarities By Bang, James; Mitra, Aniruddha; Abbas, Faisal
  12. Neighborhoods, Perceived Immigration, and Preferences for Redistribution: Evidence from Barcelona By Gerard Domènech-Arumí
  13. Population dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic By Eduardo Gutiérrez; Enrique Moral-Benito; Roberto Ramos

  1. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Ibanez, Ana Maria (Inter-American Development Bank); Rozo, Sandra V. (World Bank); Traettino, Salvador (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: How do policies that ease the integration of immigrants shape their fertility decisions? We use a panel survey of undocumented Venezuelan migrants in Colombia to compare the fertility decisions of households before and after the launch of an amnesty program that granted such migrants a labor permit and access to social services. Our results suggest the amnesty reduced the likelihood that program beneficiaries would have a child due to better labor market opportunities for women and greater access to family planning resources through health care services.
    Keywords: migration, refugees, amnesties, Latin America
    JEL: F22 O15 R23
    Date: 2023–05
  2. By: Rozo, Sandra V. (World Bank); Quintana, Alejandra (Columbia University); Urbina, Maria José (World Bank)
    Abstract: How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? This paper assesses how the regularization of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian natives by comparing election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for a program that supports forced migrants. The findings show negligible impacts on native voting behavior. The study then conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voter response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views toward migrants. This suggests that their indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. In contrast, the electoral indifference of natives may be explained by the fact that the program did not change labor and crime outcomes for native Colombians, and most migrants remained in the informal sector despite benefiting from the program through improvements in labor conditions and better access to public services.
    Keywords: refugees, amnesties, electoral outcomes
    JEL: D72 F02 F22 O15 R23
    Date: 2023–05
  3. By: Karadja, Mounir (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Sundberg, Anton (Department of Economics, Uppsala University)
    Abstract: We study the economic impact of becoming a taxi driver. Comparing individuals who pass the necessary written exams for a taxi driver’s license to individuals who have not yet done so, we find that both immigrants and natives who enter into taxi driving have experienced negative employment trends. However, after passing the written taxi exams, immigrants increase their monthly earnings by nearly 50 percent between 1 and 3 years later, and usage of social insurance programs decreases as well. For natives, we find positive but much smaller effects of passing taxi exams, which are large enough for their post-taxi earnings to be roughly 10 percent larger. An analysis of heterogeneous effects shows that effects are larger for recently arrived immigrants. We also find evidence in favor of immigrants having poorer outside options in the labor market, which may be a reason for their larger earnings impact of taxi driving compared to natives.
    Keywords: Taxi labor market; Driver’s licenses; Immigrant-native earnings gaps
    JEL: J15 J22 J24 J60 J61
    Date: 2023–03–23
  4. By: Hellwagner, Timon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Söhnlein, Doris (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg)
    Abstract: "Population size and structure in conjunction with the participation behavior are the determinants of labor supply. Thereby, among the demographic components, migration is the one shaping both the size and the structure of a population the strongest in the short to medium term while simultaneously exhibiting high uncertainty, with migration patterns varying between origin-destination-pairs depending on a range of economic and other determinants. Yet, existing stochastic forecasting approaches that jointly address population and labor force participation are sparse and do neither account for differences in future immigration flows across origin countries nor for the interdependencies of immigration and emigration in the destination country. Addressing this shortcoming, we propose an augmentation of an integrated stochastic population and labor force participation forecasting framework by a gravity-equation component to model future immigration and emigration, their interaction, and their determinants more appropriately. By conducting a stochastic forecast, we find that until 2060 the potential labor supply in Germany is declining by 11.7 percent, strongly driven by the even more distinct decline of the working-age population and only partially cushioned by rising participation rates. Thereby, increasing immigration to Germany is highly probable, yet its net effect is limited due to simultaneously rising emigration figures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: IAB-Open-Access-Publikation
    JEL: F22 J11 J21
    Date: 2023–05–05
  5. By: Marie Connolly (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Catherine Haeck (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Anne Mei Le Bourdais-Coffey (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal)
    Abstract: In this paper, we exploit intergenerationally-linked tax files and Census data to first document the intergenerational income transmission between individuals who immigrated to Canada as children—the 1.5 generation—and their parents. We find that the correlation between parental income rank and child income rank becomes stronger the older the child is at arrival. We then try to get at the causal effect of the age at immigration by estimating a model in which child rank is explained by interactions between age at arrival and the average predicted rank of second-generation immigrants from the same region of origin, living in the same region in Canada, from the same birth cohort, given their parental income. The model gives us the rate at which children from the 1.5 generation catch up to second-generation immigrants. We find that up to age 10, the relation between age at immigration and income is flat, but starting at age 11, each year is associated with 3.3 fewer percentile ranks.
    Keywords: intergenerational income mobility, immigrants, 1.5 generation, age at immigration, Canada
    JEL: J62 J61 J15
    Date: 2023–05
  6. By: Kimsanova, Barchynai; Sanaev, Golib; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between international migration, labor, remittances, and agricultural commercialization in Kyrgyzstan using nationally representative household panel surveys covering eight years from 2013 to 2020. Unlike other studies, we focus on evaluating the impact of international migration on total farm commercialization, including crop, livestock, and live animals. We use quantile regression via moments and a three-stage least squares method to overcome the potential endogeneity of migration, labor, and remittances. Overall results show that sending household members abroad has a significant labor-loss effect on households with a consequent impact on farm commercialization. Remittances only partially compensate for losses for households with the lowest level of commercialization. Furthermore, the quantile regressions show little heterogeneity between the selected quantiles, except for the number of migrants, which is detrimental to the lowest level of commercialization
    Keywords: Agribusiness, International Development
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Patricia Cortés
    Abstract: Most of the literature on how immigration affects the labor market focuses on the outcomes of natives in direct competition with immigrants. This paper reviews a growing literature on an alternative channel. Immigrants, particularly low-skilled women, are disproportionately represented in the household services sector, a global phenomenon that is seen to some extent in most regions. A simple time-use model suggests that by lowering the price of market-provided household services, immigrant workers allow high-skilled native women to reduce their unpaid household production and increase their participation in the labor market. I review existing evidence that the presence of foreign domestic workers has increased the labor supply of high-skilled native women, has helped narrow the gender earnings gap in high-paying powered occupations, and that these advances have not come at the cost of native women investing less time in their children or having lower birth rates. I discuss the policy implications of these results, as well as some ethical considerations.
    JEL: J16 J22
    Date: 2023–05
  8. By: Jorge E. Galán (Banco de España); Matías Lamas (Banco de España); Raquel Vegas (Banco de España)
    Abstract: In this study we disentangle the effect of roots from other confounding factors to explain differences in immigrants’ outcomes in the mortgage market. Using loan-level data from the Spanish Credit Register complemented with data on securitized mortgages over a complete financial cycle, we identify that foreign-born borrowers with shallow roots to the host country pay higher mortgage rates at origination than similar debtors that are better-settled. We also find that weak roots are associated with higher default rates and with greater incentives to go into default in negative equity situations. Overall, we show that rootedness explains differential loan conditions at origination and default behavior in mortgages. From a policy perspective, our results have important implications for understanding the potential consequences of moving away from recourse mortgage regimes, and for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy.
    Keywords: immigrants, mortgage terms, recourse mortgages, roots, strategic default.
    JEL: C25 J15 G21 R20 R30
    Date: 2021–12
  9. By: Bratu, Cristina; Martén, Linna (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Ottosson, Lillit (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: The economic and social integration of refugees is a key policy concern. The situation of refugee women is particularly challenging, as many never enter the labor force. We study a reform of the Swedish integration program that aimed to tackle this issue by increasing women’s participation in and access to active labor market programs. Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we show that the reform resulted in lasting improvements in women’s earnings and employment. We find no effects for men. Additional analyses suggest that individualizing benefits and early registration with the Public Employment Service are key mechanisms.
    Keywords: Refugees; Integration; Active Labor Market Program
    JEL: J08 J15 J61
    Date: 2023–05–23
  10. By: Galor, Oded: Klemp, Marc; Wainstock, Daniel C.
    Abstract: Why does inequality vary across societies? We advance the hypothesis that in a mar- ket economy, where earning differentials re ect variations in productive traits among individuals, a significant component of the differences in inequality across societies can be attributed to variation in societal interpersonal diversity, shaped by the prehistorical out-of-Africa migration. Exploring the roots of inequality within the US population, we find supporting evidence for our hypothesis: variation in the inequality across groups of individuals originating from different ancestral backgrounds can be traced to the degree of diversity of their ancestral populations. This effect is sizable: a move from the lowest to the highest level of diversity in the sample is associated with an increase in the Gini index from the median to the 75th percentile of the inequality distribution.
    Keywords: Inequality, Diversity, Culture, Out-of-Africa Migration
    JEL: D60 O10 Z10
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Bang, James; Mitra, Aniruddha; Abbas, Faisal
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of remittance income on the household decision to send a child to work. Using data from a Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey conducted in the Punjab province of Pakistan in 2014, we isolate the causal impact of remittance income by employing statistical matching to construct counterfactuals that allow us to compare the occurrence in child labor in comparable households that differ solely in their access to remittances. We find that remittances have in general failed to mitigate household reliance on child labor in Punjab. However, the impact depends critically on whether remittances originate from within Pakistan or outside, the age and gender of the child, and on the nature of employment. Specifically, internal remittances increase the labor force participation of the youngest children in the 5-11 age group, with girls being more likely to work in household production and boys being additionally more likely to work as wage labor in nonhazardous occupations. By contrast, international remittances impact the oldest children in the 14-17 age group. While girls in this age group participate more in household and nonhazardous market production, boys are additionally more likely to participate in hazardous activity.
    Keywords: Remittances, Migration, Child Labor, Gender
    JEL: F24 F22 R23 J13
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Gerard Domènech-Arumí
    Abstract: I use registry data and an original survey recording exact addresses to study the effects of neighborhood immigration on perceptions and preferences for redistribution in Barcelona. Exposure to European or American migrants is associated with lower perceived immigration and more redistribution demand. The opposite is true for Asian or African migrants. Quasi-random variation in exposure to new immigrant inflows in the neighborhood largely confirms descriptive results and suggests that sizeable inflows increase the support for anti-immigration parties. Differences inincome, language, and skin tone between immigrants and natives are mechanisms at play. This work highlights new implications of racial segregation.
    Keywords: Neighborhood Characteristics, Migration, Redistribution
  13. By: Eduardo Gutiérrez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España); Roberto Ramos (Banco de España)
    Abstract: The year 2020 was marked by net migration dynamics in Spain that resulted in an increase in the rural population at the expense of the urban population, interrupting the secular trend towards greater urbanisation prevailing since the middle of the last century. According to the findings of this paper, the demographic momentum of rural areas was attributable both to higher population inflows from elsewhere in the country and, in particular, to a slowdown in outflows from rural areas. In addition, a regression analysis shows that the demographic dynamics during the rural exodus (1950-1990), the percentage of second homes and accessibility to services, both physical and digital, are explanatory factors when characterising municipal-level population changes during the pandemic. 2020 represents a unique period, marked by strict restrictions on movement and on activity, along with stringent social distancing measures. This setting, along with the modest levels of remote working, raise significant doubts and uncertainty as to the extent to which the slowdown in urbanisation observed in that year will continue over a longer time horizon.
    Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, population, migrations, Spanish municipalities
    JEL: J11 R10
    Date: 2022–03

This nep-mig issue is ©2023 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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