nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒04‒24
four papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Employment Effects of Offshoring, Technological Change and Migration in a Group of Western European Economies: Impact on Different Occupations By Michael Landesmann; Sandra M. Leitner
  2. Why Are Immigrants Always Accused of Stealing People's Jobs? By Pascal Michaillat
  3. Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration By Sofía Fernández Guerrico
  4. Germany is looking for foreign labour: How to make recruitment development-orientated, sustainable and fair By Angenendt, Steffen; Knapp, Nadine; Kipp, David

  1. By: Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This paper estimates conditional demand models to examine the impact of offshoring, technological change, and migration on the labour demand of native workers differentiated by four different types of occupational groups managers/professionals, clerical workers, craft (skilled) workers and manual workers. The analysis is conducted for an unbalanced panel of five economies Austria, Belgium, France, Spain, and Switzerland covering the period 2005-2018. Our results point to important and occupation-specific effects offshoring seems to have beneficial employment effects for native craft workers in this set of economies, while negative effects for native manual workers across a wide set of industries (including manufacturing and services industries) and managers/professionals in manufacturing. Furthermore, there are important distinctions whether offshoring occurs in other advanced economies, in the EU13 or in developing countries. The analysis of the impact of technological change shows the strong positive impact which the additional IT equipment has on most occupational groups of native workers (with the exception of manual workers), while robotisation in manufacturing showed strongly negative impacts on the employment of all groups of workers and especially of craft workers. Increasing immigrant shares in the work forces showed strongly negative impacts on native workers – however, considering only the partial substitution effects and not including the potential for productivity and demand effects – and this is mostly accounted for by immigration from low- to medium-income source countries.
    Keywords: Employment, occupational groups, offshoring, technological change, immigration
    JEL: F16 F22 F66 O33
    Date: 2023–03
  2. By: Pascal Michaillat
    Abstract: Immigrants are always accused of stealing people's jobs. Yet, in a neoclassical model of the labor market, there are jobs for everybody and no jobs to steal. (There is no unemployment, so anybody who wants to work can work.) In standard matching models, there is some unemployment, but labor demand is perfectly elastic so new entrants into the labor force are absorbed without affecting jobseekers' prospects. Once again, no jobs are stolen when immigrants arrive. This paper shows that in a matching model with job rationing, in contrast, the entry of immigrants reduces the employment rate of native workers. Moreover, the reduction in employment rate is sharper when the labor market is depressed -- because jobs are more scarce then. Because immigration reduces labor-market tightness, it makes it easier for firms to recruit and improves firm profits. The overall effect of immigration on native welfare depends on the state of the labor market. It is always negative when the labor market is inefficiently slack, but some immigration improves welfare when the labor market is inefficiently tight.
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Sofía Fernández Guerrico
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of trade-induced changes in Mexican labor demand on population growth and migration responses at the local level. It exploits cross-municipality variation in exposure to a change in trade policy between the United States and China that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports, negatively affecting Mexican manufacturing exports to the United States. Municipalities more exposed to the policy change, via their industry structure, experienced greater employment loss. In the five years following the change in trade policy, more exposed municipalities experience increased population growth, driven by declines in out-migration. Conversely, 6 to 10 years after the change in trade policy, exposure to increased trade competition is associated with decreased population growth, driven by declines in in-migration and return migration rates, and increased out-migration. The sluggish regional adjustment is consistent with high moving costs and transitions across sectors in the short term.
    Keywords: Trade competition; Job displacement; Population growth
    JEL: F16 J23 O12 R12 R23
    Date: 2023–02–27
  4. By: Angenendt, Steffen; Knapp, Nadine; Kipp, David
    Abstract: Germany's shortage of skilled workers has sharply increased, especially in the social and education sectors, health and care, construction and skilled crafts, information technology and jobs in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Simultaneously, the demand for low qualified labour has also been growing, for instance in help and household-related services. While EU member states continue to be the source for the majority of labour migration, their migration potential is declining due to their similarly ageing and shrinking populations. Recruiting workers from third countries, including Germany's development partner countries, will become of strategic importance. In spite of many recent reforms, the recruitment of workers from third countries is still inadequate, and not enough attention has so far been paid to development policy aspects. Germany's recruitment activities need to be more closely embedded in fair, development-orientated partnerships with countries of origin, in which their interests are taken into account and the rights of migrant workers are respected. Since many industrialised countries now recruit workers, this could also be a competitive advantage for Germany. The German government should make use of the extensive experience gained from the pilot projects to attract skilled workers for large-scale recruitment programs. These projects will require the systematic cooperation of all relevant ministries (whole-of-government approach) as well as the involvement of civil society and the private sector to set the course for development-orientated recruitment. The German government should engage even more strongly in the relevant global processes and forums whilst advocating fair recruitment.
    Keywords: skilled workers, labour migration, demographic potential, Skilled Immigration Act (FEG), medical health jobs, language skills, qualifications, recruitment
    Date: 2023

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