nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒04‒03
nine papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Child Fostering in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa By Ronnkvist, Sara; Thiede, Brian C.; Barber, Emma
  2. Forecasting Bilateral Refugee Flows with High-dimensional Data and Machine Learning Techniques By Konstantin Boss; Andre Groeger; Tobias Heidland; Finja Krueger; Conghan Zheng
  3. The Psychosocial Value Of Employment Evidence From The Rohingya Refugee Camps By Ayesha Fatima
  4. Measuring Poverty in Forced Displacement Contexts By Pape, Utz; Verme, Paolo
  5. Cultural Participation and Extra Disability and Health Costs of Syrian Migrants in Turkey By Giovanis, Eleftherios
  6. Adapting to Climate Risk? Local Population Dynamics in the United States By Agustín Indaco; Francesc Ortega
  7. The distributional effect of a migratory exodus in a developing country: the role of downgrading and regularization By Carlo Lombardo; Julián Martinez-Correa; Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco; Leonardo Gasparini
  8. International migration and income inequality By Nicola Daniele Coniglio; Vitorocco Peragine; Davide Vurchio
  9. Do International Tourist Arrivals Change Residents' Attitudes Towards Immigration? A Longitudinal Study of 28 European Countries By Ivlevs, Artjoms; Smith, Ian

  1. By: Ronnkvist, Sara; Thiede, Brian C. (The Pennsylvania State University); Barber, Emma
    Abstract: An extensive social science literature has examined the effects of climate change on human migration. Prior studies have focused largely on the out-migration of working-age adults or entire households, with less attention to migration among younger and older individuals. In this study, we focus on the implications of climate variability for the movement of children by examining the association between climate exposures and the in- and out-fostering of children in sub-Saharan Africa. We link high-resolution temperature and precipitation records to data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 26 sub-Saharan African countries. We fit a series of regression models to measure the overall associations between climate exposures and each outcome, and then evaluate whether these associations are moderated by socioeconomic status, the number of children in the household, and the prevalence of fostering in each country. We find that precipitation is positively associated with in-fostering overall, and that effects are especially strong among households who already have at least one child and in countries where child fostering is common. We find no overall relationship between either temperature or precipitation exposures and out-fostering, but we do detect significant effects among households with many children and those with more-educated heads. Overall, this study demonstrates that new attention to the links between climate variability, child fostering, and other understudied forms of spatial mobility is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on human populations.
    Date: 2023–02–22
  2. By: Konstantin Boss; Andre Groeger; Tobias Heidland; Finja Krueger; Conghan Zheng
    Abstract: We develop monthly refugee flow forecasting models for 150 origin countries to the EU27, using machine learning and high-dimensional data, including digital trace data from Google Trends. Comparing different models and forecasting horizons and validating them out-of-sample, we find that an ensemble forecast combining Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithms consistently outperforms for forecast horizons between 3 to 12 months. For large refugee flow corridors, this holds in a parsimonious model exclusively based on Google Trends variables, which has the advantage of close-to-real-time availability. We provide practical recommendations about how our approach can enable ahead-of-period refugee forecasting applications.
    Keywords: forecasting, refugee flows, asylum seekers, European Union, machine, learning, Google trends
    JEL: C53 C55 F22
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Ayesha Fatima (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: The government of Myanmar started a massive ethnic cleansing campaign which resulted in the expulsion of 750-800000 Rohingya refugees- the world’s largest refugee camp now. If you go to the people living there and ask them how you can help them? They answer, “help us go back home and give us work.”
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Pape, Utz; Verme, Paolo
    Abstract: Poverty measurement among forcibly displaced populations, including refugees and internally displaced persons, has been, for long, neglected by the economics profession and by poverty specialists working across the social sciences. This has changed since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011 and the peak of the European migration crisis in 2015. This paper reviews the evolution, current status, and future prospects of the poverty measurement literature on forcibly displaced populations; discusses the main data and measurement challenges associated with this type of population; illustrates selected empirical findings that have emerged from the recent literature; and provides an overview of the substantial effort that humanitarian and development organizations are currently undertaking to close this historical gap in poverty measurement.
    Keywords: poverty, refugees, IDPs
    JEL: I30 I32
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Giovanis, Eleftherios
    Abstract: Purpose: The effects of disability are well recognised by the social security systems worldwide. This study aims to examine the disability and health-related costs of Syrian migrants in Turkey using the standard of living (SoL) approach. Design/Methodology: The empirical analysis relies on primary data collected from 1, 067 Syrian migrants in Turkey, and we apply the ordered Probit model. The SoL is operationalized by frequency of attendance to a Turkish theatrical play or movie, inviting Turkish friends for food and attending a theatrical play or movie with Turkish friends. Findings: The findings show that health problems and disability are negatively related to the frequency of participation in socio-cultural activities. Moreover, employed, wealthier and educated Syrian migrants participate more frequently in the social and cultural activities explored. Practical Implications: The results show that the costs range between 9-38 per cent, which translates in monetary values between 3, 700-10, 700 Turkish Liras (TL) per annum or between 530-1, 530 US Dollars (USD) expressed in 2020 values. These findings highlight the significant cost and burden that disability and health problems may put in migrant households. Social Implications: Policies encouraging immigrants to participate in socio-cultural events, particularly those with disabilities and health issues, may promote their integration into the host society’s social and cultural values. Furthermore, policies improving employment opportunities, income, and educational attainment of Syrian migrants may enhance their participation in socio-cultural activities. Originality: This is the first study exploring the disability and health costs of migrants related to integration and participation in cultural activities.
    Keywords: Disability and Health Costs; Mental Health; Standard of Living Approach; Syrian Migrants; Socio-Cultural participation
    JEL: I14 I31 I32 J15 O15
    Date: 2023–02–06
  6. By: Agustín Indaco (Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar); Francesc Ortega (CUNY, Queens College)
    Abstract: Using a new composite climate-risk index, we show that population in high-risk counties has grown disproportionately over the last few decades, even relative to the corresponding commuting zone. We also find that the agglomeration is largely driven by increases in the (white) working-age population. In addition, we show that high-risk tracts have typically grown more than low-risk tracts within the same county, suggesting the presence of highly localized amenities in high-risk areas. We also document heterogeneous population dynamics along a number of dimensions. Specifically, population has been retreating from high-risk, lowurbanization locations, but continues to grow in high-risk areas with high residential capital. The findings above hold for most climate hazards. However, we document that tracts with high risk of coastal flooding have grown significantly less than other tracts in the same county
    Keywords: Climate risk; Agglomeration; Migration
    JEL: J3 J7
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Carlo Lombardo; Julián Martinez-Correa; Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco; Leonardo Gasparini
    Abstract: We study the distributional effect of the massive exodus of Venezuelans in Colombia and how public policy can shape its impact. Using RIF-regressions in an instrumental variables approach, we find that the exodus had a larger negative effect on the lower tail of the natives’ wage distribution, increasing inequality in the host economy. We propose downgrading as the driving mechanism: due to formal restrictions, immigrants ended up working in more routine and lower-paying jobs than natives with similar characteristics. Finally, we show that a large-scale amnesty program reduced the magnitude of downgrading, mitigating the unequalizing impact of the exodus.
    JEL: D30 F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2022–11
  8. By: Nicola Daniele Coniglio; Vitorocco Peragine; Davide Vurchio
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the links between international migration and income inequality. After presenting a simple model which considers the role of income distribution in individual decisions to migrate, we estimate a set of models on the determinants of yearly bilateral migration from a very large pool of countries in the period 1960-2019. The empirical results confirm that inequality—in both origin and destination countries—significantly shapes individual choices about where, and whether, to migrate.
    Keywords: International migration, Income inequality, Income distribution, Inequality
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol); Smith, Ian (University of the West of England, Bristol)
    Abstract: Can international tourist arrivals change residents' attitudes towards immigrants and immigration? We discuss possible underlying mechanisms and provide the first evidence on this question using data from the European Social Survey (2002-2019; n=333, 505). We find that, as tourist arrivals grow, residents become more positive towards immigration in Eastern Europe. In Western Europe, the relationship tends to turn from positive to negative at relatively high levels of tourism. The instrumental variable analysis suggests that incoming tourism has a positive causal effect on attitudes towards immigration in both Western and Eastern Europe. Overall, our study reveals an overlooked dimension of the tourism-migration nexus and highlights the role that international tourism may play in shaping attitudes towards immigration and, through these attitudes, immigration policy and flows, immigrant integration and more open and inclusive societies in tourism-receiving countries.
    Keywords: tourism, attitudes towards immigration, inclusion, Europe, instrumental variable analysis
    JEL: J61 L83
    Date: 2023–02

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