nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒03‒06
nine papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Go where the wind does not blow: Climate damages heterogeneity and future migrations By Lesly Cassin; Aurélie Méjean; Stéphane Zuber
  2. Internal Migration as a Response to Soil Degradation: Evidence from Malawi By Keiti Kondi; Stefanija Veljanoska
  3. The effect of skills acquired abroad by return migrants on social relations and quality of life in Cameroon By Gislain S. GANDJON FANKEM; Dieudonné TAKA; Sévérin TAMWO
  4. Can international mobility shape students' attitudes toward inequality? By Granja, Cintia; Visentin, Fabiana; Carneiro, Ana Maria
  5. Transition Probabilities, Wages and Regional Human Capital Stocks By Augustin de Coulon; Larissa da Silva Marioni; Mary O'Mahony
  6. Integration Vs Cultural Persistence: Fertility and Working Time among Second-Generation Migrants in France By Thomas Baudin; Keiti Kondi
  7. A probabilistic forecast of the immigrant population of Norway By Nico Keilman
  8. The True Cost of War By Artuc, Erhan; Gomez-Parra, Nicolas; Onder, Harun
  9. Refugee Resettlement By Ohta, Katsunori; Tamura, Yuji

  1. By: Lesly Cassin (ENSAIA – Université de Lorraine – Bureau d'Economie Théorique Appliqué); Aurélie Méjean (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement); Stéphane Zuber (Université Paris 1 – CNRS – Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne/Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: In the context of climate change, migration can be considered as an adaptation strategy to reduce populations' exposure to climate damages. Those damages are very heterogeneous across regions. In this paper, we study migration induced by climate change damages. To do so, we estimate the socio-economic determinants of migration, focusing on economic damages. We then model endogenous migration in an integrated assessment model based on those estimates. We highlight the importance of the heterogeneity of the damages distribution to explain migration fows due to climate change. We find that high levels of climate damages globally do not necessarily induce large climate migration. Rather, large differences in exposure between regions may lead to substantial migration.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Damage, Migration, Integrated Assessment Model,
    JEL: Q51 Q54 J11 F22
    Date: 2023–02
  2. By: Keiti Kondi (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Stefanija Veljanoska (CREM, Université de Rennes)
    Abstract: We study how the slow deterioration of soil, caused by climate change, affects internal migration and household resettlement. Rural households are expected to move when they face worsening soil conditions, as soil degradation is detrimental to agricultural productivity. The other possibility is that they can get stuck in a poverty trap. We use the Integrated Household Survey in Malawi for the years 2010-2016. Soil depletion is not a random process and to account for its endogeneity, we instrument soil degradation by using distant climate shocks and controlling for recent weather conditions. We find that severe soil nutrient constraints push households to send their members away. The underlying mechanism is that soil degradation is harmful to agricultural productivity, and therefore food security, which incentivizes households to seek better opportunities by pushing their members to migrate.
    Keywords: land degradation, migration, internal migration, resettlement, land quality, climate change, soil nutrition
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–01–13
  3. By: Gislain S. GANDJON FANKEM (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Dieudonné TAKA (Douala, Cameroon); Sévérin TAMWO (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This article fills the lack of work on the link between return migration and social cohesion in the country of origin of migration. For the first time, we assess the effect of skills acquired abroad by return migrants on social relations and quality of life in Cameroon using original survey data from the Institute of Demographic Training and Research. The main results, based on a probit model, show that formal and informal competences acquired abroad reduce the likelihood that return migrants will improve social relations and increase the probability that they will increase quality of life in their home country. These results remain robust to the inclusion of return migrants from African and non-democratic countries. Correcting for the endogeneity of skills acquired abroadby two-stage probit model with instrumental variablesdoes not alter these conclusions. Our results seem to corroborate the hypothesis that migration contributes to the transfer of norms and practices from destination countries to countries of origin.
    Keywords: Return migrants; skills; social relations; quality of life; Cameroon
    JEL: F22 O55 C3
    Date: 2023–01
  4. By: Granja, Cintia (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Visentin, Fabiana (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Carneiro, Ana Maria
    Abstract: In this study, we examine the impact of international mobility programs on students’ attitudes toward inequality, focusing on two dimensions: preference and perception of inequality. To provide causal evidence, we exploit unique survey data about more than a thousand students from a well-known and internationalized Brazilian university. Using Propensity Score Matching to construct an artificial comparison group, we find that going abroad does not affect students’ preference to reduce within-country inequality in Brazil. Still, international mobility affects students’ salary preferences, with mobile students expressing their preferences for favoring a raise in salaries for high-skilled jobs. Results also show that mobility affects how individuals perceive current inequality, as students who participate in mobility programs believe within-country inequality is smaller than their non-mobile counterparts. Our analysis presents empirical evidence to reflect on the role of international student mobility, providing insights to policymakers engaged in understanding their effects.
    JEL: D31 D63 I24 O15
    Date: 2023–01–02
  5. By: Augustin de Coulon; Larissa da Silva Marioni; Mary O'Mahony
    Abstract: This paper aims to look at regional mobility in the UK and its impact on regional human capital stocks. We estimate regional transitions probabilities from and to regions. We do this using different regional aggregation levels, by demographics characteristics and education status. Our results show that mobility appears heavily concentrated amongst the young and educated populations. The results suggest little changes over recent periods. Using these regional mobility transitions, we find that regional human capital stocks can be misleading if one does not take into account regional mobility of young people.
    Keywords: skills, human capital, mobility, migration
    JEL: J6 O4 R1
    Date: 2022–11
  6. By: Thomas Baudin (I´ESEG School of Management, LEM UMR 9221 and IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain); Keiti Kondi (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We study whether cultural norms in the origin country, measured at different times, affect fertility and labor force participation of second-generation migrant women in France. We investigate empirically and follow an epidemiological approach to test that the culture of origin affects people’s behavior and decisions. We use the dataset TeO (Trajectoires et Origines) on population diversity in France in 2008. We find that: 1) cultural norms affect people’s fertility and labor working time decisions, confirming the results of Fernandez and Fogli (2009) also for the French context; 2) the timing when the norm is measured is crucial. The later the norm is measured in time, the most powerful its effect, suggesting that the effect of the norms transmitted from peers is stronger than that of norms transmitted from parents. The explanatory power of norms holds also when controlling for socio-economic characteristics such as age, siblings, education of the respondent, spouse, and parents; 3) the feeling of being French moderates the persistence of cultural norms differently for fertility and labor force participation, while the perceived feeling of being discriminated does not alter the persistence of the cultural norms.
    Keywords: second generation migrants, culture, fertility, labor force participation, discrimination, integration
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–01–13
  7. By: Nico Keilman (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: We present a probabilistic forecast for the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children (“second generation”) broken down by age, sex, and three types of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3. other countries. First, we compute a probabilistic forecast of the population of Norway by age and sex, but irrespective of migration background. The future development of the population is simulated 3 000 times by stochastically varying parameters for mortality, fertility and international migration to 2060. We add migrant group detail using stochastically varying random shares to split up each result from the previous step into six sub-groups with immigration background, and one for the non-immigrants. The probabilistic forecast is calibrated against the Medium Variant of Statistics Norway’s official population projection.
    Keywords: stochastic forecast; immigrants; second generation; random share method
    JEL: C15 J11
    Date: 2023–01
  8. By: Artuc, Erhan (World Bank); Gomez-Parra, Nicolas (Inter-American Development Bank); Onder, Harun (World Bank)
    Abstract: Measuring the economic impact of a war is a daunting task. Common indicators like casualties, infrastructure damages, and gross domestic product effects provide useful benchmarks, but they fail to capture the complex welfare effects of wars. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. A case study of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 shows a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to between 7.3 and 24.8 percent of life-time income depending on agents' time preferences.
    Keywords: conflict, revealed-preferences, internally displaced people
    JEL: D74 J61
    Date: 2023–01
  9. By: Ohta, Katsunori; Tamura, Yuji
    Abstract: Resettlement is one means of assisting refugees to regain self-reliant living with- out constant fear. The global total of resettled refugees has remained fractional relative to the need. To contribute to the ongoing effort to increase resettlement, we consider self-enforceable sharing of full resettlement through analysis of a repeated game at the beginning of which host countries bargain over their shares. We find that cooperation opportunities are diminished, or else lost, by cutting the cost of resettlement, whereas they are expanded by heightened pureness in treating refugee protection as a humanitarian public good. Our finding thus makes us reconsider the implications of static-game analysis that both high cost and public-good nature of refugee protection are the sources of insuffi cient admission. We also show that a wide range of cooperation opportunities may not be conducive to the effi ciency of an equilibrium outcome because it allows the bargaining outcome to deviate from the effi cient one. We suggest policies for creating cooperation opportunities and improving equilibrium effi ciency. Our framework is suffi ciently general and is useful for examining other similar problems of public-good provision.
    Keywords: International cooperation, International public good, Noncooperative game, Repeated game, Alternate-offer bargaining
    JEL: H41 H87
    Date: 2023

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