nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2023‒02‒13
three papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. The Long-Run Effects of South Africa’s Forced Resettlements on Employment Outcomes By Alexia Lochmann; Nidhi Rao; Martin A. Rossi
  2. Like an Ink Blot on Paper: Testing the Diffusion Hypothesis of Mass Migration, Italy 1876-1920 By Yannay Spitzer; Ariell Zimran
  3. Immigration and the Adequacy of Labor Force – Evaluation of the Economic Effects By Alho, Juha; Kangasharju, Aki; Lassila, Jukka; Valkonen, Tarmo

  1. By: Alexia Lochmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nidhi Rao; Martin A. Rossi
    Abstract: Can South Africa’s segregation policies explain, at least partially, its current poor employment outcomes? To explore this question, we study the long-term impact of the forced resettlement of around 3.5 million black South Africans from their communities to the so-called “homelands” or “Bantustans”, between 1960 and 1991. Our empirical strategy exploits the variability in the magnitude of resettlements between communities. Two main findings. First, the magnitude of outgoing internal migrations was largest for districts close to former homelands. Second, districts close to former homelands have higher rates of non-employed population in 2011. Together the evidence suggests that districts that experienced racial segregation policies most intensely, as measured by outgoing forced resettlements, have worse current employment outcomes.
    Keywords: Homelands; Employment; Apartheid; Segregation policies
    JEL: J15 J21 J61 J71 N37
    Date: 2023–01
  2. By: Yannay Spitzer; Ariell Zimran
    Abstract: Why were the poorer countries of the European periphery latecomers to the Age of Mass Migration? We test the diffusion hypothesis, which argues that mass emigration was delayed because it was primarily governed by a gradual process of spatial diffusion of migration networks. We propose a model of migration within a spatial network to formalize this hypothesis and to derive its testable predictions. Focusing on post-unification Italy, we construct a comprehensive municipality- and district-level panel of emigration data over four decades, and use it to show that the testable predictions of the diffusion hypothesis are validated by the data. The emerging picture is that Italian mass migration began in a few separate epicenters from which it expanded over time in an orderly pattern of spatial expansion, and that the epidemiological characteristics of this expansion match those underlying our model. These findings strongly support the diffusion hypothesis, and call for a revision of our understanding of one of the most important features of the Age of Mass Migration--the delayed migration puzzle.
    JEL: F22 J61 N33 N34
    Date: 2023–01
  3. By: Alho, Juha; Kangasharju, Aki; Lassila, Jukka; Valkonen, Tarmo
    Abstract: Abstract This Report analyzes the impacts of population ageing on the Finnish economy and the possibilities to avoid its negative effects by increasing net migration. Our calculations show that a yearly net migration of 44, 000 persons is needed to stabilize the size of the birth cohorts and the labor force with the current age and gender structure of net migration. The reason for a such high number is the projected low total fertility rate. As a baseline for our economic analysis, we consider future net migration of 15, 000 persons, also projected by Statistics Finland. We utilize in our numerical calculations a dynamic general equilibrium model, which provides, e.g., the change in investments induced by the additional migration. The calculations require many assumptions related, for example, to the educational level and the use of social services of the immigrants. This means that the economic results must be considered as approximate. The results indicate that the assumed immigration would have large positive effects on the economic growth and especially on the fiscal sustainability.
    Keywords: Migration, Population projection, Economy
    JEL: J11 H68
    Date: 2023–02–03

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