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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Petra E. Todd (University of Pennsylvania); Weilong Zhang (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and estimates a spatial general equilibrium job search model to study the effects of local and universal (federal) minimum wage policies on employment, wages, job postings, vacancies, migration/commuting, and welfare. In the model, workers, who differ in terms of location and education levels, search for jobs locally and in a neighboring area. If they receive remote offers, they decide whether to migrate or commute. Firms post vacancies in multiple locations and make offers subject to minimum wage constraints. The model is estimated using multiple databases, including the American Community Survey (ACS) and Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), and exploiting minimum wage variation across state borders as well as time series variation (2005-2015). Results show that local minimum wage increases lead firms to post fewer wage offers in both local and neighboring areas and lead lower education workers to reduce interstate commuting. An out-of-sample validation finds that model forecasts of commuting responses to city minimum wage hikes are similar to patterns in the data. A welfare analysis shows how minimum wage effects vary by worker type and with the minimum wage level. Low skill workers benefit from local wage increases up to $10.75/hour and high skill workers up to $12.25/hour. The greatest per capital welfare gain (including both workers and firms) is achieved by a universal minimum wage increase of $12.75/hour. |
| Keywords: | spatial equilibrium, minimum wage, labor relocation, commuting |
| JEL: | J61 J63 J64 J68 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:22-027&r=mig |
| By: | Sheng Cai; Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro; Wei Xiang |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic spatial growth model to explore the role of trade and internal migration in the process of spatial development and aggregate growth. Growth is shaped by the best global and local ideas that contribute to the local stock of knowledge. Global ideas diffuse more to locations that are relatively more exposed to international trade. Local ideas are diffused across space when workers move to another location. We embed the diffusion of ideas through trade and migration into a multi-country, multi-region framework with international trade, forward-looking dynamic migration decisions, and endogenous capital accumulation. We apply our framework to study the role of initial conditions, international trade, and internal migration on China’s spatial development and aggregate growth during the 1990s and 2000s. We find that initial conditions across space, idea diffusion, and capital accumulation play an important role in understanding the process of spatial development and aggregate growth in China. Changes in international trade costs and mobility restrictions during the 1990s and 2000s also contribute to aggregate growth, with large heterogeneity across space. |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F16 O1 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30579&r=mig |
| By: | Samuel Nocito (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Alessandra Venturini (Department of Economics and Statistics “Cognetti de Martiis”, University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | We investigate an Italian case study (project “Welcome-ED”) of cooperation between private institutions and local migrant centers - administratively defined as cooperatives, non-profit associations, and public educational centers - to promote the inclusion of migrants through the provision of a financial literacy course. We find that the course has effectively improved migrants’ financial literacy and it also mitigates initial differences in knowledge due to individual characteristics. Moreover, we find heterogeneous effects among different local center types with stronger improving effects for individuals coming from cooperatives and non-profit associations. This result strengthens the importance of the cooperation between private institutions, cooperatives, and local associations to achieve inclusion policy goals. |
| Keywords: | D14, L30, J15, P13. |
| JEL: | Q12 O12 C31 C3 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:10/22&r=mig |
| By: | Jason Fletcher; Hans G. Schwarz; Michal Engelman; Norman Johnson; Jahn Hakes; Alberto Palloni |
| Abstract: | A rich literature shows that early life conditions shape later life outcomes, including health and migration events. However, analyses of geographic disparities in mortality outcomes focus almost exclusively on contemporaneously measured geographic place (e.g., state of residence at death), thereby potentially conflating the role of early life conditions, migration patterns, and effects of destinations. We use the newly available Mortality Disparities in American Communities (MDAC) dataset, which links respondents in the 2008 ACS to official death records and estimate consequential differences by method of aggregation; the mean absolute deviation of the difference in life expectancy at age 50 measured by state of birth versus state of residence is 0.58 (0.50) years for men and 0.40 (0.29) years for women. These differences are also spatially clustered, and we show that regional inequality in life expectancy is higher based on life expectancies by state of birth, implying that interstate migration mitigates baseline geographical inequality in mortality outcomes. Finally, we assess how state-specific features of in-migration, out-migration, and non-migration together shape measures of mortality disparities by state (of residence), further demonstrating the difficulty of clearly interpreting these widely used measures. |
| JEL: | I14 J0 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30572&r=mig |
| By: | Höckel, Lisa Sofie; Schilling, Pia |
| Abstract: | This study is the first empirical analysis to identify the causal effect of a separate preparatory language learning class on the academic success of newly immigrated primary school-aged children in comparison to their direct integration into regular classrooms. Employing unique administrative panel data from the German federal state Hamburg between 2013 and 2019, we use the quasi-random allocation of refugee children to neighborhoods and therewith schools to measure the effect of the two educational integration models on standardized test scores and the probability of attending an academic track in secondary school. Our results show that primary school-aged refugees who visit a preparatory class perform significantly worse in standardized test scores in fifth grade. The negative effect is particularly strong for Math and German. They further have a slightly lower probability to attend the academic track. Overall, our results indicate that integrating newly immigrated children directly into regular classrooms fosters their academic achievement more than schooling them first in preparatory classes with a focus on language learning. |
| Keywords: | Academic achievement,education economics,language skills,migration,integration policy |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:983&r=mig |
| By: | Philipp Koch; Viktor Stojkoski; C\'esar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | Did migrants help make Paris a center for the arts and Vienna a beacon of classical music? Or was the rise of these knowledge agglomerations a sole consequence of local actors? Here, we use data on the biographies of more than 22,000 famous historical individuals born between the years 1000 and 2000 to estimate the contribution of famous immigrants, emigrants, and locals to the knowledge specializations of European regions. We find that the probability that a region develops a specialization in a new activity (physics, philosophy, painting, music, etc.) grows with the presence of immigrants with knowledge on that activity and of immigrants specialized in related activities. We also find that the probability that a region loses one of its existing areas of specialization decreases with the presence of immigrants specialized in that activity and in related activities. In contrast, we do not find robust evidence that locals with related knowledge play a statistically significant role in a region entering or exiting a new specialization. These findings advance our understanding of the role of migration in the historical formation of knowledge agglomerations. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2210.15914&r=mig |
| By: | Escamilla Guerrero, David; Lepistö, Miko; Minns, Chris |
| Abstract: | This paper uses newly digitized border crossing records from the early 20th century to study the destination choice of female and male French Canadian migrants to the United States. Immigrant sorting across destinations was strikingly different between women and men. Absolute returns to skill dominate in explaining sorting among men, while job search costs and access to ethnic networks were more important for single women. Married women were typically tied to a spouse whose labour market opportunities determined the joint destination, and were much less responsive to destination characteristics as a result. |
| Keywords: | migration; sorting; gender; Canada; United States |
| JEL: | J61 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2022–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:117260&r=mig |
| By: | Celia P. Vera (Universidad de Piura); Bruno Jiménez (Princeton University, CEDLAS & IIE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | Peru is the second-largest recipient of Venezuelans worldwide. We combine newly available data on Venezuelans living in Peru and the Peruvian Household Survey to assess the impact of Venezuelan migration on natives’ wages and employment. The initial regression analysis exploits the variation in supply shifts across education-experience groups over time. It indicates that immigration in Peru had no adverse impact on native wages. However, the paper highlights that in Peru immigrants and natives with similar education and experience are likely to work in different occupations. The subsequent analysis based on occupational clustering confirms the null effect on wages and indicates that a 20% increase in immigrants decreases formal employment by 6%. We do not find evidence for changes in employment composition toward informality so that migration operates through the extensive margin of employment. We report evidence in favor of immigrants being a close substitute to the least productive natives, suggesting that firms substitute native formal labor for low-cost immigrant informal labor. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J46 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0304&r=mig |
| By: | Masatoshi Jinno (Department of Economics, Nanzan University); Masaya Yasuoka (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Throughout the world, some countries consider immigration policies to address labor supply difficulties. Particularly because OECD countries typically have an aging society with fewer children, immigration policies are examined continually. Our paper sets a two-sector model, with a high-skill sector and a low-skill sector, for assessment of immigration policies of two types: immigration for the high-skill sector and immigration for the low-skill sector. Results obtained from our study show that immigration has a positive effect on employment of the native people or a negative effect depending on production technologies used in the economy. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Immigration, Two sector model |
| JEL: | J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:241&r=mig |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens; Ethan G. Lewis |
| Abstract: | The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor. |
| JEL: | D22 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30589&r=mig |
| By: | Meenakshi Fernandes; d'Artis Kancs; Cecilia Navarra |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential macro-economic effects of selected EU-level policy options on legal migration on the EU economy. The approach is based on a macro-economic model that models several frictions and barriers on the supply and demand side of the EU labour market resulting in a sub-optimal allocation of labour and lower productivity. Each policy option addresses a specific friction or barrier and consequently has a specific role in generating economic gains relative to the policy status quo. In terms of GDP, these gains range between about €2.8 billion and €19.5 billion per year, when considering individual policy options. Implementing several options together substantially increases the long-run benefits (between about €37.6 and €74.0 billion per year), generating synergies and greater economic gains for society. |
| Keywords: | International migration, model, human capital, skills, occupational choice, labor productivity |
| JEL: | C68 E24 F22 F47 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2021_10&r=mig |
| By: | Alberto Conejos Sevillano (Asociación para el Desarrollo y Fomento de las Cinco Villas (ADEFO)); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)); Luis Antonio Sáez Pérez (Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on how policies for the reception and integration of immigrants and refugees should be implemented in rural depopulated areas. The research focuses on three Aragonese counties with a high rate of foreign population. We consider that the peculiarities of rural depopulated areas are sufficiently important to modulate and adapt more general policies or implement some specific ones. It is concluded that an adaptation of norms and strategies is needed, based on aspects of a more qualitative order in terms of inclusive values than economic aspects and specific legislative support. |
| Keywords: | Immigration Policies; Refugees; Rural Depopulation. |
| JEL: | J15 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2022-04&r=mig |