|
on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Henrik Kleven (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new approach to estimating child penalties based on cross-sectional data and pseudo-event studies around child birth. The approach is applied to US data and validated against the state-of-the-art panel data approach. Child penalties can be accurately estimated using cross-sectional data, which are widely available and give more statistical power than typical panel datasets. Five main empirical findings are presented. First, US child penalties have declined significantly over the last five decades, but almost all of this decline occurred during the earlier part of the period. Child penalties have been virtually constant since the 1990s, explaining the slowdown of gender convergence during this period. Second, child penalties vary enormously over space. The employment penalty ranges from 12% in the Dakotas to 38% in Utah, while the earnings penalty ranges from 21% in Vermont to 61% in Utah. Third, child penalties correlate strongly with measures of gender norms. The evolution of child penalties mirrors the evolution of gender progressivity over time, with a greater fall in child penalties in states where gender progressivity has increased more. Fourth, an epidemiological study of gender norms using US-born movers and foreign-born immigrants is presented. The child penalty for US movers is strongly related to the child penalty in their state of birth, adjusting for selection in their state of residence. Parents born in high-penalty states (such as Utah or Idaho) have much larger child penalties than those born in low-penalty states (such as the Dakotas or Rhode Island), conditional on where they live. Similarly, the child penalty for foreign immigrants is strongly related to the child penalty in their country of birth. Immigrants born in high-penalty countries (such as Mexico or Iran) have much larger child penalties than immigrants born in low-penalty countries (such as China or Sweden). Evidence is presented to show that these effects are not driven by selection. Finally, immigrants assimilate to US culture over time: A comparison of child penalties among first-generation and later-generation immigrants shows that differences by country of origin eventually disappear. |
| Keywords: | Child Penalties, Panel Data Approach, Children, Immigrants, United States |
| JEL: | C23 J13 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2022-20&r= |
| By: | IGARASHI Akira; MIWA Hirofumi; ONO Yoshikuni |
| Abstract: | In the United States, race plays an important role in shaping intergroup relations. African Americans, for example, are highly disadvantaged. Yet, little is known about how race affects the formation of intergroup attitudes in non-U.S. contexts. Two conflicting possibilities have been raised: either non-U.S. countries follow the U.S. racial hierarchy and it is spreading throughout the world, or each society has develops its own norms through its unique history and institutions, and racial hierarchies are not shared in non-U.S. contexts. To examine these possibilities, we chose a homogeneous, predominantly non-white, and non-U.S. context, Japan, and conducted a survey experiment to measure Japanese people’s attitudes toward immigrants from White, African, and Asian American backgrounds. The results showed that Japanese do not prefer White Americans over African Americans as immigrants. Rather, they exhibited a preference for African Americans. These results indicate that the racial hierarchy that shapes intergroup attitudes in the U.S. is not necessarily shared in Japan. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22091&r= |
| By: | Chatruc,Marisol Rodríguez; Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana |
| Abstract: | Can taking the perspective of an out-group reduce prejudice and promote prosociality Buildingon insights from social psychology, this paper studies the case of Colombian natives and Venezuelan immigrants. Thiswas done by conducting an online experiment in which natives were randomly assigned either to play an online game thatimmersed them in the life of a Venezuelan migrant or to watch a documentary about Venezuelans crossing the border onfoot. Relative to a control group, both treatments increased altruism towards Venezuelans and improved some attitudes,but only the game significantly increased self-reported trust. |
| Keywords: | Gender and Development,Indigenous Communities,Indigenous Peoples Law,Indigenous Peoples,Educational Sciences,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9866&r= |
| By: | Ghose,Devaki |
| Abstract: | How do trade shocks affect welfare and inequality when human capital is endogenous? Using an external information technology demand shock and detailed internal migration data from India, this paper first documents that both information technology employment and engineering enrollment responded to the rise in information technology exports. Information technology employment responded more when nearby regions had a higher share of college-age population. The paper then develops a quantitative spatial equilibrium model featuring two new channels: higher education choice and differential costs of migrating for college and work. The framework is used to quantify the aggregate and distributional effects of the information technology boom and perform counterfactuals. Without endogenous education, the estimated aggregate welfare gain from the export shock would have been about a third as large and regional inequality twice as large. Reducing barriers to mobility for education, such as reducing in-state quotas for students at higher education institutes, would substantially reduce inequality in the gains from the information technology boom across districts. |
| Keywords: | Educational Sciences,International Trade and Trade Rules,Labor Markets,Employment and Unemployment |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9738&r= |
| By: | Arenas-Arroyo, Esther (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Schmidpeter, Bernhard (University of Linz) |
| Abstract: | We study the spillover effects of immigration enforcement policies on children's human capital. Exploiting the temporal and geographic variation in the enactment of immigration enforcement policies, we find that the English language skills of US-born children with at least one undocumented parent are negatively affected by the introduction of these policies. Changes in parental investment behavior cause this reduction in children's English skills. Parents are less likely to enroll their children in formal non-mandatory preschool, substituting formal non-mandatory preschool education with parental time at home. Parents also reduce time spent on leisure and socializing, providing children with fewer opportunities to interact and learn from others. Ultimately, these developments reduce children's long-term educational success. Exposure to immigration enforcement during early childhood lowers the likelihood of high school completion. We also find negative, though imprecise, effects on college enrollment. |
| Keywords: | parental investment, children's language skills, children's human capital, Immigration policies |
| JEL: | K37 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15624&r= |
| By: | Lokshin,Michael M.; Ravallion,Martin |
| Abstract: | The paper simulates a double-sided competitive market in temporary work permits between the U.S. and Mexico. Eligible working-age Americans would have the option of renting out their implicit work permits while Mexican workers have remunerative new opportunities. With plausible allowances for migration costs, the market can support a self-financed and self-targeted basic income for Americans and lower their poverty rate. With sufficiently high tax rates on work permits, the scheme can be managed to avoid a large increase in the count of total migrants compared to now. The likely change in the skill composition of migrants would raise U.S. GDP. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Labor Markets,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Migration and Development,International Migration,Financial Sector Policy,Social Protections&Assistance |
| Date: | 2021–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9708&r= |
| By: | Kulshreshtha, Shobhit (Tilburg University); Salm, Martin (Tilburg University); Wübker, Ansgar (RWI) |
| Abstract: | Large regional disparities in health and healthcare costs prevail in many countries, but our understanding of the underlying causes is still limited. This study shows for the case of the Netherlands that population sorting through internal migration can explain a substantial share, around 28%, of regional variation in healthcare costs. Internal migration during the 1998-2018 period increases average healthcare costs in peripheral provinces by up to 3%. Most of this effect can be attributed to selective migration. We find similar results for risk scores, a measure of healthcare needs. The Dutch risk equalization scheme compensates only partially for these effects. |
| Keywords: | regional variation in healthcare costs, internal migration, movers approach, regional disparities |
| JEL: | H51 I14 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15559&r= |
| By: | Aksoy,Cevat Giray; Ginn,Thomas Clinton |
| Abstract: | Exclusionary policies, such as limits on refugees’ movement and the right to work, are oftenjustified as reasons to minimize economic and social tensions with host communities. While these policies have anegative effect on refugees’ economic outcomes, their ability to mitigate frictions with host communities isunknown. Inclusionary policies, on the other hand, could foster mutual gains and positive relations. This paperbuilds an extensive dataset of attitudes and economic outcomes, refugee populations, and policies at thesub-national level covering 14 years (2005-2018) and most low- and middle-income countries. Using event study anddifference-in-differences methodologies, it assesses the effects of the arrival of large waves of refugees and findslittle evidence that large refugee arrivals have a negative effect on average attitudes or economic outcomes in theshort-term. There are also no significant differences between places with restrictive and inclusive policies,including de jure access to the labor market and opening camps. |
| Date: | 2022–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9985&r= |
| By: | Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves; Görlach,Joseph-Simon; Ozden,Caglar; Wang,He |
| Abstract: | Limited access to credit due to poorly functioning institutions is a key constraint tobusiness creation. This paper examines the role played by temporary migration in addressing the institutional void oflimited access to loans by aspiring entrepreneurs. Using rich data from one of the major migrant-sending countriesglobally, Bangladesh, it provides evidence on how migration is employed as a common intermediate step to accumulate thecapital required for entrepreneurship. The paper offers, for the first time, a detailed account of the financial costsand returns to temporary migration as a risky investment. It shows that international migration shares many commonfeatures with classical entrepreneurial investments: it requires the payment of a considerable upfront cost,generates high returns, and is risky. The paper shows that temporary migrants usually get high returns from theirmigration episode and are often successful in starting entrepreneurial activities back home, thanks to fasteraccumulation of savings overseas. Given the similarities shared by Bangladesh and other major migrant-sendingcountries globally, the key findings of the paper are relevant beyond the Bangladeshi context studied by this paper. |
| Keywords: | Employment and Unemployment,Trade and Services,Private Sector Development Law,Marketing,Private Sector Economics,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9930&r= |
| By: | Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves; Gorlach,Joseph-Simon; Ozden,Caglar; Wang,He |
| Abstract: | In the presence of credit constraints, temporary migration abroad provides an effective strategy for workers to accumulate savings to finance self-employment when they return home. This paper provides direct evidence of this link and its effects on workers’ employment trajectories by using a new, large-scale survey of temporary migrants from Bangladesh. It constructs and estimates a dynamic model that establishes connections between asset accumulation and credit constraints, and, thus, between workers’ migration and self-employment decisions. Interlinked impacts also emerge from simulations of three key policy interventions that target migration costs or domestic credit constraints for entrepreneurship. Lowering migration costs increases emigration, reduces the age at which workers depart, and reduces the duration of their time abroad, which together lead to higher savings and domestic self-employment. Reducing the interest rate for entrepreneurial loans reduces migration and savings levels, undercutting the positive effects on business creation at home. Correcting workers’ inflated perceptions about overseas earnings potential reduces emigration rates and durations, triggering a decrease of both repatriated savings and self-employment in Bangladesh. The findings, which have implications for migrant-sending countries, highlight the need for policies to take into account the linkages between migration and self-employment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Employment and Unemployment,Migration and Development,Trade and Services,Private Sector Development Law,Private Sector Economics,Marketing,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9740&r= |
| By: | Umut Unal (Research Institute for Labour and Social Affairs (RILSA)); Bernd Hayo (Marburg University); Isil Erol (Oezyegin University) |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence of the causal impact of immigration on German house prices, flat prices, and flat rents using an extensive dataset covering 382 administrative districts over the period 2004−2020. Employing a panel-data approach and a manually constructed shift-share instrument, we show that international migration has a significantly positive short-term effect on German flat prices and rents. House prices are not significantly affected. We estimate that an increase in international migration of 1% of the initial district population causes a hike in flat prices of up to 3% as well as a hike in flat rents of about 1%. The increase in flat prices is more than twice as high as this at the lower end of the market, whereas the flat rental market demonstrates a more linear response. We also discover that immigration’s impact on flat prices and rents does not significantly differ across rural and urban areas within the country. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Housing prices; Rents; Instrumental variable; IV quantile regression; German housing market |
| JEL: | J61 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202238&r= |
| By: | Denny,Elaine Kathryn; Dow,David; Levy,Gabriella; Villamizar-Chaparro,Mateo |
| Abstract: | How does extortion experienced during the migration journey affect the civic engagement ofdeported migrants returned to their home country More broadly, how does extortion affect political participationLittle is known about either the political behavior of returnees or about how coercive economic shocks experiencedduring migration affect subsequent levels of political participation. More broadly, existing literature on howvictimization affects political participation is inconclusive, particularly when combined with existing workon economic insecurity. Studying deported migrants and the quasi-random experience of extortion helps address theendogeneity that often confounds these analyses. This approach isolates the impact of extortion on politicalaction from potentially confounding factors related to local security or corruption. Using a novel dataset concerningGuatemalan migrants returned to Guatemala by the U.S. government, this paper finds that extortion has a direct,positive relationship with multiple forms of civic action, and that, at least in this context, the mobilizing effectsof economic hardship outweigh the potentially demobilizing effects of fear of crime. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10020&r= |
| By: | Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves; Ozden,Caglar |
| Abstract: | Temporary migration is widespread globally. While the literature has traditionally focused onthe impacts of permanent migration on destination countries, evidence on the effects of temporary migration on origincountries has grown over the past decade. This paper highlights that the economic development impacts, especiallyon low- and middle-income origin countries are complex, dynamic, context-specific and multi-channeled. The paperidentifies five main pathways: (i) labor supply, (ii) human capital, (iii) financial capital and entrepreneurship, (iv)aggregate welfare and poverty, and (v) institutions and social norms. Several factors shape these pathways and theireventual impacts. These include initial economic conditions at home, the scale and double selectivity of emigration andreturn migration, and employment and human capital accumulation opportunities experienced by migrants whilethey are overseas, among others. Meaningful policy interventions to increase the development impacts oftemporary migration require proper analysis, which, in turn, depends on high quality data on workers’ employmenttrajectories. This is currently the biggest research challenge to overcome to study the development impacts oftemporary migration. |
| Date: | 2022–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9996&r= |
| By: | Gatti, Nicolò (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Mazzonna, Fabrizio (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Parchet, Raphaël (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Pica, Giovanni (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of opening the labor market to qualified immigrants who hold fully equivalent diplomas with respect to natives and speak the same mother tongue. Leveraging the 2002 opening of the Swiss labor market to qualified workers from the European Union, we show that the policy change led to a large inflow of young immigrants with the same linguistic background as natives. This, in turn, produced heterogeneous effects on natives wages and employment. While incumbent workers experienced a wage gain and a decrease in the likelihood of becoming inactive, the opposite happened for young natives entering the labor market after the policy change. This is likely the result of different patterns of complementarity/substitutability between same-language immigrants and natives with different levels of labor market experience. |
| Keywords: | worker substitutability, wage effects, qualified immigration, experience |
| JEL: | F22 J08 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15631&r= |
| By: | Joseph,George; Wang,Qiao; Chellaraj,Gnanaraj; Tas,Emcet Oktay; Andres,Luis Alberto; Javaid,Syed Usman; Rajan,Irudaya |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of return migration from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf on thetransfer of gender norms to the Indian state of Kerala. Migration to countries in the Middle East has led tosignificant remittance flows and economic prosperity, although the effects on social norms and attitudes remainlargely unexplored. The paper finds that returning migrants from Saudi Arabia tend to exhibit conservative valuesregarding gender-based violence and extreme attitudes pertaining to the perpetration of physical violence againstwomen. Compared with those who have no migration experience, the attitudes of returning migrants from Saudi Arabia towardgender-based violence were more conservative by three standard deviations, while the attitudes of those returningfrom the Gulf were less conservative by 0.5 standard deviation. Similarly, compared with those with no migrationexperience, returning migrants from Saudi Arabia were more conservative by 2.6 standard deviations regarding extremeattitudes related to gender norms, such as sexual assault, while those returning from the Gulf were less conservativeby 0.7 standard deviation. These results show that migration experience can have a substantial impact on the genderattitudes of returning migrants, with potential implications for migration and gender policies in Kerala and forcountries that send a large share of temporary migrants overseas for work. |
| Date: | 2022–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9966&r= |
| By: | Zhou,Yang-Yang; Grossman,Guy; Ge,Shuning |
| Abstract: | Large arrivals of refugees raise concerns about potential tensions with host communities,particularly if refugees are viewed as an out-group competing for limited material resources and crowding outpublic services. To address this concern, calls have increased to allocate humanitarian aid in ways that (also)benefit host communities. This study empirically tests whether the presence of refugees in Uganda (one of thelargest refugee-hosting countries) has improved public service delivery, and consequently, dampened potentialsocial conflict. The data com- bines geospatial information on refugee settlements with unique longitudinal data onprimary and secondary schools, road density, health clinics, and health utilization. This study reports two key findings.First, particularly after the 2014 arrival of over 1 million South Sudanese refugees, host communities with greaterlevels of refugee presence experienced substantial improvements in local development. Second, using publicopinion data, we find no evidence that refugee presence is associated with more negative (or positive) attitudestowards migrants or migration policy. |
| Keywords: | Health Care Services Industry,Educational Sciences,Health Service Management and Delivery,Crime and Society |
| Date: | 2022–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9981&r= |
| By: | Albarosa,Emanuele; Elsner,Benjamin |
| Abstract: | In 2015, Germany welcomed close to one million asylum seekers and refugees from Syria,Afghanistan, the Western Balkans and elsewhere. Although the country was often praised for its welcome culture, theinflow has spurred a debate about identity, social cohesion and the limits of multiculturalism. This paper analyzes theeffect of this inflow on various dimensions of social cohesion. To separate causation from correlation, itexploits the fact that asylum seekers in Germany are allocated to local areas based on an area’s tax revenues andpopulation several years prior. Therefore, the allocation is unrelated to current economic, political or socialconditions. Based on survey data as well as data scraped from newspapers, the paper documents two sets of results.First, it finds no effect on self-reported indicators of trust and perceived fairness, and a small negative effect onand attitudes towards immigrants. In contrast, it finds that the refugee inflow led to an increased incidence ofanti-immigrant violence that lasted for about two years. This increase is larger in areas with higher unemploymentand greater support for right-wing parties. |
| Keywords: | Social Cohesion,International Migration,Migration and Development,Human Migrations & Resettlements,Crime and Society,Indigenous Peoples Law,Indigenous Peoples,Indigenous Communities,Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2022–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9913&r= |
| By: | Kovac,Dejan; Efendic,Adnan; Shapiro,Jacob N. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term relationship between conflict-related migration andindividual socioeconomic inequality. Looking at the post-conflict environments of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)and Croatia, the two former Yugoslav states most heavily impacted by the conflicts of the early 1990s, the paperfocuses on differences in educational performance and income between four groups: migrants, internally displaced persons,refugees, and those who did not move two decades after the conflicts. For BiH, the analysis leverages amunicipality-representative survey (n = 6, 021) that captured self-reported education and income outcomes as wellas migration histories. For Croatia, outcomes are measured using an anonymized education registry that capturedoutcomes for over half a million individuals over time. This allows an assessment of convergence between differentcategories of migrants. In both countries, individuals with greater exposure to conflict had systematically worseeducational performance. External migrants now living in BiH have better educational and economic outcomes than those whodid not migrate, but these advantages are smaller for individuals who were forced to move. In Croatia, those who moved during the conflict have worse educational outcomes,but there is a steady convergence between refugees and non-migrants. This research suggests that policies intendedto address migration-related discrepancies should be targeted on the basis of individual and family experiencescaused by conflict. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10021&r= |
| By: | Betts,Alexander Milton Stedman; Stierna,Maria Flinder; Omata,Naohiko; Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte |
| Abstract: | Building upon the literature on contact theory, this paper explores the role of inter-groupinteraction in shaping social cohesion between refugees and host communities in East Africa. It draws upon first-handquantitative (n=16,608) and qualitative data collected from refugees and nearby host communities in urban and camp-likecontexts in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. Focusing on the Uganda data, OLS regressions reveal a positive andsignificant correlation between refugee-host interaction and the perception of hosts towards refugees. This associationdisappears when an instrumental variable (IV) approach is used to address endogeneity issues, except when only datafrom the urban context is used. The analysis of cross-country data highlights further differences in thetypes of interaction and perception that matter between urban and camp-like contexts. It also suggests thatethno-linguistic proximity between refugee and host populations is associated with more positive attitudes. Inall contexts, an important part of attitude formation appears to take place at the intra-group level, withinhouseholds and immediate neighbourhoods, independently of individual interaction with the out-group. The paperproposes a series of policy recommendations to improve refugee-host social cohesion, with different approachesrequired in urban and camp-like contexts. |
| Keywords: | Human Migrations & Resettlements,International Migration,Migration and Development,Social Cohesion,Post Conflict Reconstruction |
| Date: | 2022–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9917&r= |
| By: | Shamsuddin,Mrittika; Acosta,Pablo Ariel; Battaglin Schwengber,Rovane; Fix,Jedediah Rooney; Pirani,Nikolas |
| Abstract: | As more and more Venezuelans leave their country, fleeing the economic and social crisis, thenumber of Venezuelans in Brazil has risen steadily since 2016, constituting about 18 percent of Brazil's 1.3million refugee and migrant population as of October 2020. Although the economic gains of immigration arewell-documented in the literature, the impacts of forced displacement on the labor market and government budget aremixed and have mainly focused on developed countries. This paper extends the previous literature by exploring the short-run fiscal impact of Venezuelan refugees and migrantson the public expenditure and revenue of Roraima, the state bordering the República Bolivariana de Venezuela at thenorth and the main gateway of the Venezuelan refugees and migrants entering Brazil, and by investigating their impacton its labor market. Using various administrative and survey data and a regression discontinuity framework, the paperfinds that the population shock caused by the influx of forcibly displaced Venezuelans in the short-run did not haveany statistically significant effect on the fiscal variables of Roraima. On the labor market, the paper finds that thepopulation shock translated into an increase in unemployment among women and a decrease in employment among women and lowskilled workers in the short-run. The effects on earnings are heterogenous across industries, but mainly positive forthe high skilled and male workers, suggesting a need for cross-cutting policies that target the most vulnerable hostpopulation as well as the forcibly displaced. |
| Keywords: | Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Social Cohesion,Access of Poor to Social Services,Economic Assistance,Disability,Services & Transfers to Poor,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Public Sector Economics,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Economic Adjustment and Lending |
| Date: | 2021–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9797&r= |
| By: | Walk,Erin Elizabeth; Garimella,Kiran; Christia,Fotini |
| Abstract: | Starting in 2011, the Syrian civil war has resulted in the displacement of over 80% of theSyrian population. This paper analyzes how the widespread use of social media has recorded migration considerationsfor Syrian refugees using social media text and image data from three popular platforms (Twitter, Telegram, andFacebook). Leveraging survey data as a source of ground truth on the presence of IDPs and returnees, it uses topicmodeling and image analysis to find that areas without return have a higher prevalence of violence-relateddiscourse and images while areas with return feature content related to services and the economy. Building on thesefindings, the paper first uses mixed effects models to show that these results hold pre- and post- return as well aswhen migration is quantified as monthly population flows. Second, it leverages mediation analysis to find thatdiscussion on social media mediates the relationship between violence and return in months where there are fewer violentevents. Monitoring refugee return in war prone areas is a complex task and social media may provide researchers, aidgroups, and policymakers with tools for assessing return in areas where survey or other data is unavailable or difficultto obtain. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10024&r= |
| By: | Kadigo,Mark Marvin; Diallo,Nene Oumou; Maystadt,Jean Francois Paul C |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa hosts a large proportion of the world’s refugees, raising concerns aboutthe consequences of hosting refugees. This paper focuses on Uganda, which is the largest refugee hosting country inAfrica and is praised for its progressive refugee policy. The paper analyzes the effects of hosting refugees, relyingon longitudinal data and an instrumental variable approach. The results indicate that Ugandan households benefit fromliving close to the refugee settlements. In contrast with the existing literature, the analysis finds that thoseinitially involved in subsistence agriculture benefit the most. The effect seems to be driven by the few householdsable to move from subsistence agriculture to commercial farming and to some extent, to wage employment. |
| Keywords: | Employment and Unemployment,Labor Markets,Educational Sciences,Wages, Compensation & Benefits,Agricultural Economics |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9950&r= |
| By: | Bogale,Yeshwas Admasu |
| Abstract: | This study uses the Ethiopia Skills Profile Survey (2017) to examine the gender differences inlivelihood opportunities and activities between refugees and host communities. The results show that refugees aresignificantly less likely to be in employment, and that household characteristics influence women’s economicopportunities. While having a female household head, access to agricultural land, and the number of female adultsincreased female participation in economic activities, conversely, higher numbers of children in the householdsignificantly reduce women’s opportunities. Higher education attainment boosts both male and female refugees’participation in wage employment. Among refugees, Somali refugees have relatively better access to employmentopportunities compared to other refugee groups, especially refugees from South Sudan and Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Gender and Development,Educational Sciences,Employment and Unemployment,Wages, Compensation & Benefits |
| Date: | 2021–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9862&r= |
| By: | Murard,Elie |
| Abstract: | After the 1919–1922 Greco-Turkish conflict, 1.2 million Greek Orthodox were forcibly displacedfrom Turkey to Greece, increasing the host population by 20 percent within a few months. Refugees were pro-vided withfarmland, new houses and schools, and were granted the Greek citizenship. This paper analyses the long-term socialintegration of refugees and the effect of their resettlement on social cohesion. Combining historical and modernpopulation censuses and surveys, this paper finds that, by the 2000s, refugees display a high rate of intermarriagewith Greek natives, report levels of trust in others and in institutions similar to natives, and exhibit higherpolitical and civic participation. At the community level, places with a higher share of refugees in 1928 are morelikely to have at least one sport association 80 years later. There is no impact on political fragmentation nor oncrime. The historical refugees’ integration starkly contrasts with the social marginalization of recent Albanianimmigrants who, unlike the former, neither spoke Greek nor had the same religion as locals upon arrival. These resultssuggest that early investments in inclusion policies can be effective at fostering refugees’ assimilation, at least whennewcomers and locals have similar cultural profiles. |
| Keywords: | Indigenous Peoples,Indigenous Communities,Indigenous Peoples Law,Educational Sciences,Armed Conflict,Social Cohesion |
| Date: | 2022–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9912&r= |
| By: | Müller,Tobias; Pannatier,Pia; Viarengo,Martina Giorgia |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the patterns of economic integration of refugees in Switzerland, a countrywith a long tradition of hosting refugees, a top-receiving host in Europe, and a prominent example of a multiculturalsociety. It relies on a unique longitudinal dataset consisting of administrative records and social securitydata for the universe of refugees in Switzerland over 1998–2018. This data is used to reconstruct theindividual-level trajectories of refugees and to follow them since arrival over the life-cycle. The study documents thepatterns of labor-market integration, and highlights the heterogeneity by gender and age at arrival. Refugees’labor-market performance is compared to natives’ and other groups of migrants’ labor-market performance. The empiricalanalysis exploits the government dispersal policy in place since 1998, which consists of the random allocation ofrefugees across cantons, to identify the causal effects of the local initial conditions. The study finds that higherunemployment rates at arrival slow down the integration process, whereas the existence of a co-ethnic network doesnot consistently lead to a faster integration. It is shown that in locations where refugees face relatively morehostile attitudes by natives upon arrival, they integrate at a faster pace, probably due to a greater effort undertakenin environments that are more hostile. Together these results, highlight the importance of an early entry in thelabor market of the host country, and the need to take a longer run perspective when examining the effectiveness ofpolicies, as the effects may vary over time and different complementary interventions may be needed in the short vs. long-run. |
| Keywords: | Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Indigenous Peoples Law,Indigenous Communities,Indigenous Peoples,Armed Conflict,Employment and Unemployment,Educational Sciences |
| Date: | 2022–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9914&r= |
| By: | Hoseini,Mohammad; Dideh,Mahsa Jahan |
| Abstract: | Using representative survey data including Iranians and Afghan refugees in Iran in 2011–2019,this paper explores the unequal impact of macroeconomic fluctuations due to Iran’s nuclear dispute on Afghanrefugees and host communities. The paper finds that economic shock increases refugee’s exit and disproportionatelyreduces their consumption expenditure and aid received from the host community. In addition, bad and good economiccycles create asymmetric impacts. While negative shocks affect the economic outcomes of two communitieshomogenously, it hurts social cohesion between them. In contrast, economic recovery benefits refugees relativelymore in terms of consumption and income, but the impact on social cohesion measures is insignificant. The findings alsosuggest that in turbulent economic times, both inter-community and intra-community inequalities go up. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Social Cohesion,Employment and Unemployment |
| Date: | 2022–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9915&r= |
| By: | Dampha,Nfamara K; Salemi,Colette; Polasky,Stephen |
| Abstract: | How do refugee camps impact the natural environment This paper examines the case study ofCox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, a district that hosts nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees in refugee camps. Using spatiallyexplicit data on land-use / land cover and proximity to a camp boundary, the paper quantifies land-use changes acrossthe district over time. To evaluate the extent to which the camps triggered additional forest loss, the analysiscalculates total forest loss in the district and uses a difference-in-difference model that compares areas 0–5kilometers from a camp boundary (treatment) to areas 10–15 kilometers away (control). The findings show that the rateof forest loss intensified near camps relative to the control area. The analysis reveals that areas experiencingcamp-stimulated reductions in forest cover are also experiencing faster settlement expansion relative to thecontrol area. Settlement expansion is largely concentrated in areas outside protected areas. This enhanced settlementexpansion still occurs when pixels 0–1 kilometer from the camps are omitted, which is evidence that the results arenot due to camp settlements expanding beyond the official camp borders. The results suggest that camps stimulatein-migration as Bangladeshis seek new economic opportunities and improved access to resources. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Social Cohesion,Hydrology |
| Date: | 2022–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9948&r= |
| By: | Mette Foged; Linea Hasager; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates, within a common framework, the effects of four types of integration polices on the employment probability and earnings of refugees in Denmark during the last three decades. We first review the studies that use a credible identification strategy to evaluate the causal effects of these types of policies on the assimilation of refugees in developed countries. We then describe the dynamics of labor market outcomes of several cohorts of refugees in Denmark. To our knowledge, Denmark is the only country where the number and design of policy changes and the longitudinal individual data availability make such an analysis possible. Our analysis suggests that improved language training, combined with initial placement of refugees in strong labor markets, significantly improved their long-run labor market outcomes. On the contrary, cutting initial welfare payments and housing them near other refugees does not seem to improve their long-run outcomes. Active labor market policies focused on matching refugees with simple jobs in high demand occupations may have positive short-run effects, but we cannot yet assess their long-run effects. |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30534&r= |
| By: | Coniglio,Nicola Daniele; Peragine,Vitorocco; Vurchio,Davide |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the authors analyze the geographical dimension ofrefugee camps in Africa by shedding light on the heterogeneous location patterns of hosting camps acrosscountries as well as the economic settings in which refugee camps are situated, which allows us to identify the maindeterminants of such patterns. Second, the authors investigate the effects of hosting refugees in camps on theoccurrence of protests and social conflicts, by using geo-referenced panel data from a large sample of Africancountries between 2000 and 2014. The main analysis is performed by using 50x50 km cells as units of analysis,GDELT and GED data on the frequency of protests, armed conflicts and other organized violence events and data fromUNHCR Camp Mapping Database. By using a counterfactual empirical strategy, the authors find that refugee campssignificantly increase the occurrence of protests only in the first two years while no significant effect is detectedin the subsequent years. The authors do not find evidence of any effect of camps location on the frequency of violenceevents resulting in casualties. Moreover, by performing ahighly detailed analysis with GHSL data the authors find that the presence of camps on average positively affectseconomic growth. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Social Cohesion |
| Date: | 2022–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9983&r= |
| By: | Vinck,Patrick Thierry; O’Mealia,Thomas; Wei,Carol; al-Saiedi,Abdulrazzaq; Irwani,Muslih; Pham,Phuong Ngoc |
| Abstract: | Understanding the conditions under which displaced persons become actively engaged in socialand political life is critical to building durable solutions to displacement. To do so, this paper analyzes originalsurveys that sample IDPs and similarly at-risk but not displaced populations in Iraq (2019), the Philippines(2010), and Uganda (2007 and 2010). Variation in the type and degree of engagement across contexts suggest that therelationship between displacement and empowerment is mediated by contextual factors. To better understand themechanisms and grapple with the non-random nature of displacement, the analysis explores temporal variation inUganda, where the relationships change over time within the same case, and use matching models in the Philippines andIraq to explore whether differences in the displacement experience (urban v. rural, camp based versus non-camp-baseddisplacement) influence levels of engagement. Displacement experience is positively associated with some manifestationsof empowerment compared to control groups, but inconsistently across contexts. Finally, the paper exploresheterogeneity among IDPs within cases based on the context of their dis-placement, finding a consistent negativeassociation between camp-based displacement and perceptions of empowerment. The results have important implications forhumanitarian policy in contexts of forced displacement. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10022&r= |
| By: | Admasu,Yeshwas; Alkire,Sabina; Scharlin-Pettee,Sophie |
| Abstract: | This paper examines multidimensional poverty among forcibly displaced populations, using agendered lens. Although past studies have explored poverty in forcibly displaced contexts, and others have looked atthe relationship between multidimensional poverty and gender, none has brought together these threeissues—multidimensional poverty, forcibly displaced persons, and gender. A tailored measure of multidimensional povertyis developed and applied for refugees and internally displaced populations in five Sub-Saharan African settingssubstantially affected by forced displacement—Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. The genderedanalysis builds on prior analysis of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) by examining individual-leveldeprivations of women and men in forcibly displaced households and host communities, as well as synthesizingintrahousehold dynamics of multidimensional poverty in forcibly displaced communities. The results provide insightsinto the educational constraints of boys and girls living in forcibly displaced households, the labor market inequalitiesexperienced by men and women in these communities, and their differential access to legal documentation and employment aspart and parcel of the forced displacement experience. |
| Keywords: | Gender and Development,Poverty Lines,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Poverty Assessment,Poverty Monitoring & Analysis,Poverty Diagnostics,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Inequality,Educational Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9823&r= |
| By: | Tellez,Juan Fernando; Balcells,Laia |
| Abstract: | Millions of people around the world are internally displaced and yet—compared to other forms ofwartime victimization—scholars know relatively little about the long-run consequences of displacement for victims. Thisgap in the literature is problematic since displacement is distinct from other forms of victimization and because IDPsface unique challenges in post-conflict transitions. This study contributes to the literature on the effects ofdisplacement in three ways. First, the study brings to bear a unique sample of households in Colombia that is largelyhomogeneous along key confounders–mostly poor, rural, and conflict-afflicted— yet varies in their exposure todisplacement. Next, the study draws on a rich set of covariates and outcomes to provide plausible estimates onthe long-run effects of internal displacement, finding that a decade or more after displacement, victims experiencesubstantial negative welfare effects yet exhibit higher levels of social cohesion than their counterparts. Finally,combining a prediction framework with interviews with key stakeholders and displacement victims, the study exploresvariation in outcomes among victims, particularly why some return home and seek reparations. The results reveal a wideassortment of consequences from displacement and should help inform policy-making bearing on support for internallydisplaced people. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10019&r= |
| By: | Vintar,Mirko; Beltramo,Theresa Parrish; Delius,Antonia Johanna Sophie; Egger,Dennis Timo; Pape,Utz Johann |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the labor market outcomes for refugee and urban national communitiesin Kenya during the COVID-19 pandemic, using five waves of a novel high-frequency phone survey collected between May 2020and June 2021. Even after conditioning on age, gender, educational attainment, and area of living, only 32 percentof refugees were employed in February 2020 compared with 63 percent of nationals. With the onset of the pandemic inMarch 2020, the share of employed for both refugees and nationals fell by around 36 percent, such that in May-June2020, only 21 percent of refugees were still employed compared with 40 percent of nationals. Using a panel setupwith wave and location fixed effects, the analysis finds that the recovery in the share of employed, hours worked,and household incomes was slower and often stagnant for refugees compared with the recovery of nationals. Thesedifferences cannot be explained by demographic factors, living in an urban or camp environment, having been employedpreviously, or sectoral choice, suggesting that a third, unobservable “refugee factor” inhibits refugees’ recoveryafter a major shock and aggravates preexisting vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Food Security,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2022–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9960&r= |
| By: | Esper,Hisham; Krishnan,Nandini; Wieser,Christina |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of a change in the amount of cash assistance provided to Afghanrefugees returning from Pakistan on household outcomes post-return. Using a regression discontinuity design, itmeasures the impact of a large exogenous change in cash assistance amounts on post-return outcomes in aquasi-experimental setting. Administrative data and post-return monitoring data suggest that more than 16 monthsafter their return, returnees who received a larger cash allowance of $350 per returnee—equivalent to 2.5 times theaverage annual pre-return annual income—were better off than those who received a smaller cash allowance of $150.Recipients of the $350 cash assistance were more likely to invest in durable assets, such as a house (17 percentagepoint difference); recipients of the $150 cash allowance were more likely to use the assistance for immediate foodconsumption needs (40 percentage point difference). Households that received $350 per returnee weresignificantly more likely to have been issued legal documentation for their household members. In line with theliterature on cash assistance, the change in cash assistance had no effect on post-return employment outcomes. Thefindings provide new evidence on the effects of unconditional cash transfers on refugee reintegration andshow that larger cash transfer programs can have a large and long-term impact following refugees’ return. |
| Keywords: | Disability,Economic Assistance,Services & Transfers to Poor,Access of Poor to Social Services,Gender and Economic Policy,Economics and Gender,Gender and Economics,Gender and Poverty,Educational Sciences,Transport Services,Health Care Services Industry |
| Date: | 2022–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9897&r= |
| By: | Admasu,Yeshwas; Alkire,Sabina; Ekhator-Mobayode,Uche Eseosa; Kovesdi,Fanni; Santamaria,Julieth; Scharlin-Pettee[,Sophie |
| Abstract: | Despite the many simultaneous deprivations faced by forcibly displaced communities, suchas food insecurity, inadequate housing, or lack of access to education, there is little research on the level andcomposition of multidimensional poverty among them, and how it might differ from that of host communities. Relying onhousehold survey data from selected areas of Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan, this paperproposes a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) that captures the overlapping deprivations experienced by poorindividuals in contexts of displacement. Using the MPI, the paper presents multi-country descriptive analysis to explorethe relationships between multidimensional poverty, displacement status, and gender of the household head. Theresults reveal significant differences across displaced and host communities in all countries except Nigeria. InEthiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan, female-headed households have higher MPIs, while in Somalia, those living inmale-headed households are more likely to be identified as multidimensionally poor. Lastly, the paper examinesmismatches and overlaps in the identification of the poor by the MPI and the $1.90/day poverty line, confirming the needfor complementary measures when assessing deprivations among people in contexts of displacement. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Poverty Assessment,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Poverty Diagnostics,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Poverty Lines,Poverty Monitoring & Analysis,Gender and Economic Policy,Gender and Economics,Gender and Poverty,Economics and Gender,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9826&r= |
| By: | Kelly,Jocelyn TD; Holmes,Morgan Oleary; Gibbons,Niamh; Matabaro,Amani; Voors,Maarten Jan |
| Abstract: | Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has been embroiled in decades-long conflict that hasresulted in the forced displacement of millions of people and extremely high rates of gender-based violence. Muchattention has been focused on conflict-related sexual violence; however, it is important to recognize thatintimate partner violence is one of the most pervasive forms of gender-based violence in the world, including in conflictsettings. This paper is among the first to use a large, randomized survey to analyze both sexual violence andintimate partner violence as outcomes. Displacement increases a woman’s risk of past-year intimate partnerviolence by 6 percent and experiencing war abuses increases the risk of lifetime intimate partner violence by 9 percent,after adjusting for other risk factors. Both exposure to war-related experiences and displacement independentlyincrease the risk of past-year sexual violence by 6 percent, after adjusting for other risk factors. Forced displacementand traumatic war-related experiences are risk factors for intimate partner violence and sexual violence in thissetting. Acknowledging these risks and creating programs that explicitly address the high risk of violence faced bydisplaced and war-affected women can more effectively break the cycles of violence that are often perpetuated in fragile settings. |
| Keywords: | Social Cohesion,Health Care Services Industry,Armed Conflict,Social Conflict and Violence,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9819&r= |
| By: | Kelly,Jocelyn TD; Rubin,Amalia Hadas; Ekhator-Mobayode,Uche Eseosa; Arango,Diana Jimena |
| Abstract: | In 2020, the United Nations reported the highest number of displaced persons ever recorded; morethan half of this population was comprised of women and girls. Displacement and conflict substantially heighten therisk of gender-based violence, including intimate partner violence, for women and girls. The current study aims toexamine the links between conflict, forced displacement, and intimate partner violence in two different conflict-affectedsettings: Colombia and Liberia. This paper draws on population-based data measuring intimate partner violence,combined with political science data on political violence. The findings show that forced displacement is highly andsignificantly associated with increased lifetime and past-year intimate partner violence. Displaced women inColombia and Liberia have between 40 and 55 percent greater odds of experiencing past-year intimate partner violencecompared with their nondisplaced counterparts. In each country, both conflict and displacement were independentlyand significantly associated with past-year intimate partner violence. Recognizing the increased prevalence of intimatepartner violence for women who have been displaced is vital to providing effective assistance. As part of humanitarian,state, and peacebuilding efforts, displaced and conflict-affected women should be able to access a range ofassistance services to help them heal from the impacts of the violence. |
| Keywords: | Social Cohesion,Educational Sciences,Armed Conflict,Gender and Development,Social Conflict and Violence |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9825&r= |
| By: | Hanmer,Lucia C.; Rubiano Matulevich,Eliana Carolina; Santamaria,Julieth |
| Abstract: | Little is known about how gender inequality influences poverty rates of forcibly displacedpeople. This paper uses a nationally representative survey to analyze poverty among internally displaced people andnon-displaced people in Somalia. More than half of internally displaced people’s households and 47 percent ofnon-displaced people’s households are female headed. Although poverty rates are higher among internally displacedpeople than non-displaced people (77 versus 66 percent), male-headed households are poorer than female-headed onesamong both groups. Extending the analysis beyond headship to demographic characteristics and by the gender and number ofearners provides a more nuanced picture. Demographic characteristics are strongly associated with poverty ratesfor internally displaced people but not for non-displaced people. Having more income earners reduces poverty risk forall households. For internally displaced people’s households, the largest decrease in poverty risk isassociated with having more female earners, while having more male earners is associated with the lowest poverty fornondisplaced people’s households. The analysis highlights that poverty reduction policies and programs must cover allhouseholds and lift barriers to women’s economic opportunities. Programs that respond to women’s careresponsibilities and address barriers to women’s economic opportunities are especially important for internallydisplaced people. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Gender and Development,Economics and Gender,Gender and Economic Policy,Gender and Poverty,Gender and Economics,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Involuntary Resettlement Law,Educational Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9818&r= |
| By: | Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves; Garrote Sanchez,Daniel; Makovec,Mattia; Ozden,Caglar |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic and health risks arising from the COVID-19 pandemic formigrant workers in the European Union. It first assesses migrants’ economic and health vulnerabilities using ex antemeasures based on both supply and demand shocks. The analysis finds that immigrants were more vulnerable thannative-born workers to both income- and health-related risks, and that this greater exposure stems from theoccupations in which migrant workers are concentrated. Migrants work to a greater degree than native-born citizensin occupations that are less amenable to teleworking arrangements, and in economic sectors that experiencedgreater reductions in demand during the pandemic. This has led to an increase in both their income and employmentrisks. The paper shows that individual characteristics, such as educational attainment, age, and geographical location,fail to explain the native-migrant gap in exposure to economic and health risks posed by the pandemic. Limitedlanguage ability, the concentration of migrants in jobs with labor shortages among native-born workers, and a reliance onimmigrant networks to find jobs all appear to play significant roles in migrants’ exposure to pandemic-relatedrisks. Finally, the paper finds that actual job losses in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, are highly correlatedwith ex-ante vulnerabilities: immigrant workers experienced significantly higher rates of job losses, which partlyoriginates from their greater concentration in non-teleworkable jobs. Ex-ante vulnerabilities, however,only explain part of the migrant-native gap in job losses that followed the pandemic and being an immigrant stillimposes additional risks. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Health Care Services Industry,Educational Sciences,Rural Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2021–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9873&r= |
| By: | Bah,Tijan L; Batista,Catia; Gubert,Flore; Mckenzie,David J. |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration. |
| Keywords: | Health Care Services Industry,Social Cohesion,Labor Markets,Financial Sector Policy |
| Date: | 2021–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9658&r= |
| By: | Xiao Chen; Hanwei Huang; Jiandong Ju; Ruoyan Sun; Jialiang Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study infectious diseases using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model with endogenous cross-region human mobility. Individuals weigh the risk of infection against economic opportunities when moving across regions. The model predicts that the mobility rate of susceptible individuals declines with a higher infection rate at the destination. With cross-region mobility, a decrease in the transmission rate or an increase in the removal rate of the virus in any region reduces the global basic reproduction number (R0). Global R0 falls between the minimum and maximum of local R0s. A new method of Normalized Hat Algebra is developed to solve the model dynamics. Simulations indicate that a decrease in global R0 does not always imply a lower cumulative infection rate. Local and central governments may prefer different mobility control policies. |
| Keywords: | SIRD model, spatial economy, endogenous mobility, basic reproduction number, Normalized Hat Algebra |
| Date: | 2022–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1860&r= |