nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2022‒08‒08
four papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. The Irish in England By Cummins, Neil; Ó Gráda, Cormac
  2. The Labor Market Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil By Shamsuddin, Mrittika; Acosta, Pablo A.; Schwengber, Rovane Battaglin; Fix, Jedediah; Pirani, Nikolas
  3. The impact of migration assumption on ageing expenditure forecasts By Aaron George Grech
  4. Bridging America's Divide on Abortion, Guns and Immigration: An Experimental Study By Michele Belot; Guglielmo Briscese

  1. By: Cummins, Neil; Ó Gráda, Cormac
    Abstract: The successful assimilation of ethnic minorities into Western economies is one of the biggest challenges facing the Modern World. The substantial flows of Irish, to England, provide an historical example of this process. However, this has received surprisingly little scholarly attention. We use the universe of probate and vital registers of births, marriages and deaths, from England, 1838 to 2018, to document the status of the Irish in England. We identify the ‘Irish’ in the records as those individuals with distinctively Irish surnames. From at least the mid 19th century to 2018, the Irish in England have persisted as an underclass, 30-50% poorer than the English. Infant mortality is about 25% higher for the Irish 1838- 1950 but has subsequently equalized. We discuss the potential roles of selective migration, social mobility, and discrimination in this, and signpost directions for future research.
    Keywords: inequality; economic history; big data
    JEL: N00 N33 N34
    Date: 2022–07
  2. By: Shamsuddin, Mrittika (Dalhousie University); Acosta, Pablo A. (World Bank); Schwengber, Rovane Battaglin (World Bank); Fix, Jedediah (UNHCR); Pirani, Nikolas (UNHCR)
    Abstract: As more and more Venezuelans leave their country, fleeing the economic and social crisis, the number of Venezuelans in Brazil has risen steadily since 2016, constituting about 18.6 percent of Brazil's 1.4 million refugee and migrant population as of October 2020. Past research finds that the impacts of forced displacement on the labor market outcomes of host community are mixed and tend to depend on country characteristics. This paper extends the previous literature by exploring the economic impact of Venezuelan influx on Roraima, the state bordering the República Bolivariana de Venezuela at the north and the main gateway of the Venezuelan refugees and migrants entering Brazil, and focusing on the formal sector employment of the host community. Using survey and administrative data and regression discontinuity frameworks, this paper finds that in the short-run, the Venezuelan influx led to an overall increase in unemployment and a decrease in informal sector employment, specially among the female workers in Roraima. Focusing on the host community, the findings suggest that Venezuelan influx led to increase in formal sector employment among the Brazilians, while the effect on both overall and native wages are heterogenous, suggesting distribution impacts and need for gender targeted policies.
    Keywords: labor market impacts, Venezuelan refugees and migrants, host community, forced displacement
    JEL: J21 J31 J61 F22 F15 O15 R23 H20 H50
    Date: 2022–06
  3. By: Aaron George Grech
    Abstract: The Maltese economy has experiences relatively high migration flows in recent years. As a result, in contrast to other EU countries, Malta’s workforce has not aged. However, this inflow has complicated the task of making reliable population projections, with these being revised upwards substantially every few years. While administrative data suggest that most migrants have a short stay in Malta, the underlying assumptions of existing population projections imply that many recent migrants will stay in Malta until retirement. This assumption is boosting upwards considerably long-term forecasts of ageing costs, with potential impacts on credit ratings, sustainability assessments and policy making. On the other hand, if one modifies population projections to reflect existing information on migrant’s remigration tendencies, the picture that emerges is significantly different, with GDP trends remaining unaffected while Malta’s long-term trend in spending on pensions, health and long-term care come more in line with the projected EU average.
    JEL: J11 O15 H55
  4. By: Michele Belot; Guglielmo Briscese
    Abstract: Americans appear increasingly polarized and unable to bridge ideological divides. We study individuals' willingness to engage with others who hold opposite views on polarizing policies. Two thousand five hundred Americans are given the opportunity to listen to recordings of fellow countrymen and women expressing their views on immigration, abortion laws and gun ownership laws. We find that most Americans (more than two-thirds) are willing to listen to a view opposite to theirs, and a small fraction (ten percent) reports changing their views as a result. We also test whether emphasizing common grounds with those who think differently helps bridging views. We identify principles the vast majority of people agree upon: (1) a set of fundamental human rights, and (2) a set of simple behavioral etiquette rules. A random subsample of people are made explicitly aware they share common views, either on human rights or etiquette rules, before they have the opportunity to listen to different views. We find that the treatments induce people to adjust their views towards the center on abortion and immigration, relative to a control group, thus potentially reducing polarization.
    Date: 2022–06

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