nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2022‒05‒02
fifteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Dynamic spatial general equilibrium By Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen J.
  2. The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities By Bloom, Nicholas; Ramani, Arjun
  3. Migration, Agglomeration and Attractiveness of Cities in China By Xubei Luo; Nong Zhu
  4. Mapping evolving population geography in China By Lei Dong; Rui Du; Yu Liu
  5. Income and the desire to migrate By Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
  6. Labor Market Integration of Refugees: RCT Evidence from an Early Intervention Program in Sweden By Matz Dahlberg; Johan Egebark; G\"ulay \"Ozcan; Ulrika Vikman
  7. A Review of Nepali Diaspora, their Role in Nepal’s Development, and Lessons for Developing Countries By Adhikari, Ambika P
  8. The reckoning of sexual violence and corruption: A gendered study of sextortion in migration to South Africa By Bicker Caarten, Asleigh; Van Heugten, Loes; Merkle, Ortrun
  9. The Migration of Belarusians to Poland and The European Union: The Situation after August 2020 By Oskar Chmiel; Piotr KaŸmierkiewicz; Karalina Sauka; Agnieszka Kulesa
  10. Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level By Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
  11. Migration and wage inequality: A detailed analysis for German regions over time By Schmid, Ramona
  12. The Global Distribution of College Graduate Quality By Paolo Martellini; Todd Schoellman; Jason A. Sockin
  13. A SALT on Real Estate? Housing Market and Migration Responses to the Limit on the State and Local Tax Deduction By Donald Bruce; Lawrence M. Kessler
  14. The potential impact of students’ migrations to small cities in peripheral regions By Fonseca, Madalena
  15. Social Networks and Spatial Mobility: Evidence from Facebook in India By Harshil Sahai; Mike Bailey

  1. By: Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen J.
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of local shocks, which depend on capital and labor dynamics, and the spatial and sectoral incidence of these shocks.
    Keywords: spatial dynamics; economic geography; trade; migration
    JEL: F14 F15 F50
    Date: 2021–07–28
  2. By: Bloom, Nicholas; Ramani, Arjun
    Abstract: Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, households, businesses, and real estate demand have moved from dense central business districts (CBDs) towards lower density suburban zip-codes. We label this the 'Donut Effect' reflecting the movement of activity out of city centers to the suburban ring. Second, while this observed reallocation occurs within cities, we do not see major reallocation across cities. That is, there is less evidence for large-scale movement of activity from large US cities to smaller regional cities or towns. We rationalize these findings by noting that working patterns post pandemic will frequently be hybrid, with workers commuting to their business premises typically three days per week. This level of commuting is less than pre-pandemic, making suburbs relatively more popular, but too frequent to allow employees to leave the cities containing their employer.
    Keywords: Covid-19; US 'donut effect'; migration patterns; firm-specific shocks; earnings; coronavirus
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–09–02
  3. By: Xubei Luo (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank); Nong Zhu (INRS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique [Québec])
    Abstract: This study aims to identify drivers of spatial migration in the context of regional structural transformation towards clean and connected cities. Using two surveys of floating population covering all cities, conducted by China Family Planning Commission in 2010 and 2014, we examine the effect of city characteristics and local policies on the mobility of migrants. Our analyses show that city size, wage level, sectoral composition, ownership structure of enterprises, and healthcare service provision are important factors that condition migratory inflow; their effect varies across migrants with different characteristics. While most of migrants moved to the regional hubs, migration to cities other than hubs has increased in the 2010s and many medium and small cities have become more attractive.
    Keywords: Migration,Agglomeration,City,Structural Transformation,China
    Date: 2022–03–11
  4. By: Lei Dong; Rui Du; Yu Liu
    Abstract: China's demographic changes have important global economic and geopolitical implications. Yet, our understanding of such transitions at the micro-spatial scale remains limited due to spatial inconsistency of the census data caused by administrative boundary adjustments. To fill this gap, we manually collected and built a population census panel from 2010 to 2020 at both the county and prefectural-city levels. We show that the massive internal migration drives China's increasing population concentration and regional disparity, resulting in severe population aging in shrinking cities and increasing gender imbalance in growing cities.
    Date: 2022–03
  5. By: Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
    Abstract: We analyse the role of household and country-level personal income in explaining both the desire to emigrate and the desired destination country. We use data from the Gallup World Poll and applications to the US Diversity Visa Program. We find that higher GDP per capita at destination is strongly associated with a higher desire to move to that country. We do not find strong support for the selection hypothesis that people want to move to countries with a higher return to their level of education. On emigration, we find that both personal income and aggregate income matter. In poorer countries richer people are more likely to want to emigrate, while the opposite is true in richer countries. In looking at the impact of origin country income on the desire to emigrate, we find little evidence for the upward part of Zelinsky's 'hump-shape' migration transition hypothesis.
    Keywords: international migration; migration intentions; development; 834455 “LPIGMANN”
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–09–06
  6. By: Matz Dahlberg; Johan Egebark; G\"ulay \"Ozcan; Ulrika Vikman
    Abstract: This study uses a randomized control trial to evaluate a new program for increased labor market integration of refugees. The program introduces highly intensive assistance immediately after the residence permit is granted. The early intervention strategy contrasts previous integration policies, which typically constitute low-intensive help over long periods of time. We find positive effects on employment of the program. The magnitude of the effect is substantial, corresponding to around 15 percentage points. Our cost estimates suggest that the new policy is less expensive than comparable labor market programs used in the past.
    Date: 2022–03
  7. By: Adhikari, Ambika P
    Abstract: United Nations data shows that the number of global diaspora had reached 281 million in 2020, and it continues to grow. Diasporas have contributed significantly to the development of their native lands through remittance, technology and knowledge transfer, philanthropy, and diplomacy. Many countries have designed policies to engage the diaspora more deeply by providing concessional citizenship and visa regimes, and attractive investment opportunities. Yet, there is room for improvement in policies and programs to enhance these prospects. Since the 2010s, the size and expanse of Nepali diaspora has grown dramatically, the number of permanent expatriates in the more developed parts of the world reaching about 800,000 in 2022. In addition, at any time, there are 2-3 million temporary migrants from Nepal working in foreign countries outside of India. With the enhanced level of education and experience, and their growing economic prowess, the Nepali diaspora is in a strong position to become a significant partner in Nepal’s development efforts. The diaspora’s potential contribution to Nepal’s development remains vastly underutilized for mainly two policy-related reasons. The Nepali government’s supporting policies, regulations, and programs to effectively engage the diaspora are inadequate. The diaspora groups too have not been able to fully assess and chart out their capacities, and create proper institutional, and policy mechanisms to mobilize their resources. This paper reviews some examples of diaspora in development, and the current situation of the Nepali diaspora, and provide recommendations for improving the strategies, policies, and programs both for the diaspora, and the Nepali government, and for similar developing countries.
    Date: 2022–04–02
  8. By: Bicker Caarten, Asleigh (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Van Heugten, Loes (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Merkle, Ortrun (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: This research seeks to understand experiences of sextortion of African migrants migrating to South Africa and how these are gendered. This research is interesting and relevant both for academic and policy discussion, for two reasons. For one, sextortion is an emerging concept that has not been sufficiently studied and for another, South-South migration is still frequently forgotten in studies about migration. This paper analyses and discusses the 16 semi-structured interviews with experts in migration, corruption and gender as a first scoping study looking at migrants' experiences with sextortion in the South African context. The results have highlighted that women are most vulnerable to sextortion and that migrants not only encounter sextortion during their journeys, but also after arriving in South Africa. This can be explained referring to South Africa's culture where both gender-based violence and xenophobia are deeply rooted, making up for an "ideal" environment for sextortion to take place. At last, this paper discusses the different consequences that surviving sextortion has, which are, among others, the spread of STIs, unwanted pregnancies, shame, stigmatisation, and normalisation.
    Keywords: Sextortion, Migration, Corruption, Gender-based violence, Sexual violence, Sexual transactions, South-South migration, Intra-Africa migration, South African migration
    JEL: D73 F22 F59 O15
    Date: 2022–03–15
  9. By: Oskar Chmiel; Piotr KaŸmierkiewicz; Karalina Sauka; Agnieszka Kulesa
    Abstract: The paper consists of three parts. The first lists the most crucial solutions introduced at the European Union (EU) level and specific solutions implemented in Poland, as well as – in a nutshell – in Lithuania and Germany. The second part includes a description of pull and push factors as well as an overview of the migration dynamic from Belarus to Poland in the years 2016–2021. It also presents the results of a research survey conducted amongst migrants from Belarus concerning, amongst other aspects, reasons for leaving and the migrants’ situation in their countries of destination, especially in Poland. The document concludes with drafting possible scenarios of migration from Belarus to the EU and with description of Poland’s potential to attract Belarusian migrants.
    Keywords: Belarus, Poland, migration, migration policy, IT sector, EU
    JEL: J61 J68
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on voting for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the national parliamentary election in 2017 in Germany. Drawing on unique small-scale data enables us to distinguish between the contact theory, captured by the inflow of refugees into the immediate neighborhood (1km x 1km), and county-level (NUTS 3) effects, which might pick-up other, broader factors such as media coverage or specific county-level policies. We alleviate concerns of an endogenous refugee allocation by a shift-share instrument. Our results indicate that the contact theory is valid in urban West Germany, i. e., higher refugee inflows in West German urban neighborhoods decrease the shares of far-right voting, while there is no robust evidence of a relationship between refugee inflow and far-right vote shares in East Germany and rural West Germany.
    Keywords: voting behavior,neighborhood characteristics,refugees,immigration
    JEL: D72 J15 R23
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Schmid, Ramona
    Abstract: This study presents new evidence on immigrant-native wage differentials estimated in consideration of regional differences regarding the presence of Non-German population in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2019 in Germany. Using linked employer-employee-data, unconditional quantile regression models are estimated in order to assess the degree of labor market integration of foreign workers. Applying an extended version of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, the results provide evidence on driving factors behind wage gaps along the entire wage distribution. There are not only changes in the relative importance of explanatory factors over time, but also possible sources of wage differentials shift between different points of the wage distribution. Differentiating between various areas in Germany, on average, larger wage gaps are revealed in metropolitan areas with at the same time a higher presence of the foreign population. Regarding the size of overall estimated wage gaps, after 2012 a reversal in trend and particular increasing tendencies around median wages are identified.
    Keywords: Immigrant-native wage gap,Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition,unconditional quantile regression,ethnic clustering,Germany
    JEL: J15 J31 J61 R23 R58
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Paolo Martellini; Todd Schoellman; Jason A. Sockin
    Abstract: We measure college graduate quality — the average human capital of a college’s graduates—using the average earnings of the college’s graduates adjusted to a common labor market. Our implementation uses the database of the website Glassdoor, which has the necessary information on earnings and education for non-migrants and migrants who graduate from roughly 3,300 colleges in 66 countries. Graduates of colleges in the richest countries have 50 percent more human capital than graduates of colleges in the poorest countries. Migration reinforces these differences. Poorer countries do not just lose a higher share of their skilled workers; their emigrants are highly positively selected on human capital. Finally, we show that these stocks and flows matter for growth and development by showing that college graduate quality predicts the share of a college’s students who become inventors, engage in entrepreneurship, and become top executives, both within and across countries.
    Keywords: Human capital; Entrepreneurship; Migration; Development; Innovation; College quality
    JEL: J30 O11 O15 J60
    Date: 2022–03–07
  13. By: Donald Bruce (Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research And Department of Economics, Haslam College of Business, University of Tennessee); Lawrence M. Kessler (Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research And Department of Economics, Haslam College of Business, University of Tennessee)
    Abstract: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 placed a $10,000 annual limit on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT) for federal individual income tax purposes. This policy change likely increased the cost of home ownership for some proportion of households living in high tax areas, and we examine whether these costs were capitalized into the local housing market through slower growth in housing prices. Motivated by the possibility that the SALT deduction cap caused some taxpayers to relocate to lower-tax environments or discouraged some taxpayers from moving to higher-tax environments, we also explore the extent to which the federal deductibility of state and local taxes influences migration patterns. We make use of a variety of housing market, tax policy, and migration information to explore this possibility with event studies and differences-in-difference estimation methods. We find that the SALT deduction cap led to a sizeable and statistically significant reduction in housing price growth for affected counties but had no discernable impact on state-level migration patterns. The extent to which these impacts represent a reduction in fairness depends critically upon one’s view of the degree of fairness in the pre-TCJA policy landscape.
    Keywords: State and Local Taxation, Housing, Real Estate, Migration
    JEL: H2 H3 H7 R2 R3
    Date: 2022–01
  14. By: Fonseca, Madalena
    Abstract: Each year, there are student migration flows to peripheral regions in Portugal to enter higher education and enroll in small higher education institutions, because they are unable to get into the more prestigious and larger universities in the main cities. Those are small counter flows of the main flows from periphery to larger cities. We argue that these flows of students to the peripheries constitute flows of talent, drivers of innovation and economic growth, a means of enhancing human capital and regional upgrading and can contribute to the institutional change of those remote areas.
    Keywords: Talent Flows; Innovation in the peripheries; Students’ migrations; Geography of Talent
    JEL: O15 O35 R11 R23
    Date: 2022–03–10
  15. By: Harshil Sahai; Mike Bailey
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of social networks in spatial mobility across India. Using aggregated and de-identified data from the world's largest online social network, we (i) document new descriptive findings on the structure of social networks and spatial mobility in India; (ii) quantify the effects of social networks on annual migration choice; and (iii) embed these estimates in a spatial equilibrium model to study the wage implications of increasing social connectedness. Across millions of individuals, we find that multiple measures of social capital are concentrated among the rich and educated and among migrants. Across destinations, both mobility patterns and social networks are concentrated toward richer areas. A model of migration suggests individuals are indifferent between a 10% increase in destination wages and a 12-16% increase in destination social networks. Accounting for networks reduces the migration-distance relationship by 19%. In equilibrium, equalizing social networks across locations improves average wages by 3% (24% for the bottom wage-quartile), a larger impact than removing the marginal cost of distance. We find evidence of an economic support mechanism, with destination economic improvements reducing the migration-network elasticity. We also find suggestive evidence for an emotional support mechanism from qualitative surveys among Facebook users. Difference-in-difference estimates suggest college attendance delivers a 20% increase in network size and diversity. Taken together, our data suggest that - by reducing effective moving costs - increasing social connectedness across space may have considerable economic gains.
    Date: 2022–03

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