nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2022‒04‒04
ten papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. The Impact of Forced Migration on In-Group and Out-Group Social Capital By Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
  2. The Impact of Exposure to Refugees on Prosocial Behavior By Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
  3. Immigration Quotas and Anti-Immigration Attitudes: An Evaluation of Swiss Migration Policy By Qingyang Lin
  4. Global Knowledge Embeddedness By Holger Graf; Martin Kalthaus
  5. Foreign graduates in Sweden. The role of high tech sectors, STEM disciplines and cultural distance. By Fassio, Claudio; Igna, Ioana
  6. Interdependence between climate change and migration: Does Agriculture, geography and development level matter in sub-Saharan Africa? By Bannor, Frank; Magambo, Isaiah Hubert; Mahabir, Jugal; Tshitaka, Jean-Luc Mubenga
  7. Migration, Remittances and Clean Fuel Usage in Sri Lanka: The Mediating Role of Household Wealth By J.M.D. Sandamali Wijayarathne; Gazi M. Hassan; Mark J. Holmes
  8. Economic Planning in India: The Occupations of Free Women and Substitution with Enslaved Workers in the Antebellum United States By Barry Chiswick; RaeAnn Robinson
  9. Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments By Agostina Brinatti; Nicolas Morales
  10. Predicting refugee flows from Ukraine with an approach to Big (Crisis) Data: a new opportunity for refugee and humanitarian studies By Jurić, Tado

  1. By: Hager, Anselm (Humbodt-Universität); Valasek, Justin (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study how forced migration impacts the in-group and out-group social capital of Syrian refugees and the host population in Northern Lebanon by administering a novel survey experiment in which we manipulate the salience of the migration experience (for refugees) and the refugee crisis (for the host population). Additionally, we study the social spillovers to Palestinians, an established refugee population in Lebanon. We find that the impact of forced migration is largely restricted to the Syrian refugee-Lebanese host population channel, and that it increases the relative disparity between in-group and out-group social capital. This may cause refugees to favor in-group interactions and therefore forgo more economically advantageous interactions with out-group members.
    Keywords: Refugees; Migration; Social Capital; Experiment; Ethnicity
    JEL: C90 D91 J15
    Date: 2022–03–15
  2. By: Hager, Anselm (Humbodt-Universität); Valasek, Justin (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: Does exposure to refugees affect natives' prosocial behavior? If so, do changes in prosocial behavior also extend to existing migrants? We administer a survey of a representative sample of Lebanese respondents and measure their prosocial behavior toward Syrian refugees, Palestinian migrants, and other Lebanese. Combining our survey data and data on refugee settlements, we find that individual proximity to refugees is positively correlated with trust towards refugees, and that there is a positive spillover toward Palestinian migrants. Taken together, the evidence highlights how inter-group contact can help mitigate the negative effects of mass migration.
    Keywords: Migrants; prosocial behavior
    JEL: J01
    Date: 2022–03–15
  3. By: Qingyang Lin (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: Switzerland implemented an immigration quota system to manage the inflow of immigration between 1970 and 2002. This paper adopts a difference-in-difference strategy taking advantage of subnational variations in the implementation of the quota system to evaluate this migration policy. An instrument variable of antiimmigration attitudes is used to address the potential endogeneity issue. The author finds that the immigration quota system slowed down the growth of foreign population in Switzerland, but had no impact on unemployment. Moreover, such immigration restriction lowered the average skill level of the Swiss population which in turn hurt the productivity of the Swiss economy.
    Keywords: Migration; Anti-Immigration Attitudes; Unemployment; Labor Skills
    JEL: F22 J21 J24 J61 K37
    Date: 2022–03–28
  4. By: Holger Graf (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Department of Economics); Martin Kalthaus (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Various forms of interaction during the process of research and innovation constitute a global network of knowledge generation and diffusion. Countries and their research organizations and individual scientists need to be embedded in this network to participate in global knowledge flows and to increase success in idea generation, invention and innovation. In this chapter, we review the literature on two of the most important channels of international knowledge diffusion in the field of science: research collaboration and scientist mobility. We thereby focus on the motives and determinants to collaborate or move internationally, the formation of a global knowledge network and the effects of embeddedness in the network and its influence on aggregate outcomes. From this review, we derive seven stylized facts on global knowledge embeddedness.
    Keywords: scientist mobility, research collaboration, global knowledge network, literature review
    JEL: O33 F60 O15
    Date: 2022–03–08
  5. By: Fassio, Claudio (CIRCLE, Lund University); Igna, Ioana (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the career paths of foreign students in Sweden, after graduation. Matching individual data on foreign graduates in Sweden with information about their employers, we analyze the sectors in which they start their career after graduation in Sweden, during the period 2000-2014. We propose that foreign graduates are attracted by firms operating in sectors employing a higher level of knowledge codification and in expanding sectors with a higher growth of demand for skilled workers. Our findings indicate that foreign graduates are more likely than Swedish ones to work in high-tech sectors, both in manufacturing and services, and in expanding industries, such as the services with low knowledge intensity. Foreign students from more culturally distant locations are more likely to work in high-tech or in expanding sectors. Finally, STEM foreign graduates are the main driver of the propensity to work in high tech manufacturing sectors, but not in high tech services.
    Keywords: foreign graduates; STEM; cultural distance; high tech; occupations
    JEL: J20 O39
    Date: 2021–03–02
  6. By: Bannor, Frank; Magambo, Isaiah Hubert; Mahabir, Jugal; Tshitaka, Jean-Luc Mubenga
    Abstract: Concerns about the human effects of climate change have contributed to forecasts of how populations in drought-prone, and flood-prone areas would respond to these events. Empirical studies have predicted that human migration has been among the critical resilient strategy in responding to the impact of climate change. To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the climate–migration relationship, the impacts of climate change on international migration flows from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) nations to South Africa are investigated empirically in this paper. The study employed a fixed effects model and panel data from 35 countries in SSA, spanning 1990 to 2017. The findings are as follows: (1) the analysis show that temperature has a positive and statistically significant effect on outmigration in agriculture-dependent nations. (2) the analysis shows that agricultural-value-added as a share in GDP has a negative and statistically significant effect on outmigration in agriculture-dependent nations. (3) the results also show that geographic location, and development level of a country, in addition to dependency on agriculture are key factors in the climate change–international migration nexus. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: International migration,Sub-Saharan Africa,South Africa,Climate change,Agriculture
    JEL: F22 J61 Q50 Q54
    Date: 2022
  7. By: J.M.D. Sandamali Wijayarathne (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 ensures universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services by 2030. However, one-third of the world's population still lacks access to clean cooking fuel, and it will account for 2.3 billion by 2030. The transition from solid to clean, modern fuel is challenging because it is influenced by various factors, with household income being one of the most influential. Nowadays, the overwhelming majority of people in low and middle-income countries heavily rely on migrant remittances as a source of income, and this will have a favourable impact on clean cooking fuel choice. To explore this, we use three waves of Sri Lankan Households' Income and Expenditure Survey data (2009, 2012, and 2016). The results of propensity score matching analysis reveal that migrants use about 5% more clean fuel for cooking than non-migrants. Furthermore, we use the instrumental variable approach and the log of the distance to the nearest bank as the instrument to address the endogeneity of remittances. Accordingly, the control function estimates show that a 10% increase in migrant remittances increases clean cooking fuel use by 3.2%. The instrumental variable mediation analysis results find that household wealth significantly mediates this relationship. The findings suggest that policies encouraging migrant remittances can assist in developing and implementing energy policies to achieve SDG 7 by 2030.
    Keywords: clean fuels; solid fuels; remittances; migration; household wealth; sustainable development goals
    JEL: F22 F24 Q40 R20
    Date: 2022–03–25
  8. By: Barry Chiswick (George Washington University); RaeAnn Robinson (George Washington University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the occupational status and distribution of free women in the antebellum United States. It considers both their reported and unreported (imputed) occupations, using the 1/100 IPUMS files from the 1860 Census of Population. After developing and testing the model based on economic and demographic variables used to explain whether a free woman has an occupation, analyses are conducted comparing their occupational distribution to free men, along with analyses among women by nativity, urbanization, and region of the country. While foreign-born and illiterate women were more likely to report having an occupation compared to their native-born and literate counterparts, they were equally likely to be working when unreported family workers are included. In the analysis limited to the slave-holding states, it is shown that the greater the slave-intensity of the county, the less likely were free women to report having an occupation, particularly as private household workers, suggesting substitution in the labor market between free women and enslaved labor.
    Keywords: Women, Labor Force Participation, Occupational Distribution, Unreported Family Workers, Enslaved Workers, Immigrants, 1860 Census of Population
    JEL: N31 J16 J21 J82
    Date: 2022–04
  9. By: Agostina Brinatti; Nicolas Morales
    Abstract: We use a detailed establishment-level dataset from Germany to document a new dimension of firm heterogeneity: large firms spend a higher share of their wage bill on immigrants than small firms. We show analytically that ignoring this heterogeneity in the immigrant share leads to biased estimates of the welfare gains from immigration. To do so, we set up and estimate a model where heterogeneous firms choose their immigrant share and then use it to quantify the welfare effects of an increase in the number of immigrants in Germany. Two new adjustment mechanisms arise under firm heterogeneity. First, native workers reallocate across firms, which mitigates the competition effect between immigrants and natives in the labor market. Second, the gains are largely concentrated among the largest and most productive employers, which induces an additional aggregate productivity gain. If we ignore the heterogeneity in the immigrant share across firms, we would underestimate the welfare gains of native workers by 11%.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous Firms; Migration; International Trade
    JEL: F16 F22 J24 J61
    Date: 2021–12
  10. By: Jurić, Tado
    Abstract: Background: This paper shows that Big Data and the so-called tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends (GT) and insights from social networks such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, can be useful for determining, estimating, and predicting the forced migration flows to the EU caused by the war in Ukraine. Objective: The objective of this study was to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to predict further forced migration from Ukraine to the EU (mainly to Germany) and gain demographic insights from social networks into the age and gender structure of refugees. Methods: The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of Internet searches in Ukrainian, Russian and English with the Google Trends analytical tool ( Initially, keywords were chosen that are most predictive, specific, and common enough to predict the forced migration from Ukraine. We requested the data before and during the war outbreak and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query to standardise the data. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics from UNHCR to prove the significations of results and correlations and test the models predictive potential. Since UNHCR does not yet have complete data on the demographic structure of refugees, to fill this gap, we used three other alternative Big Data sources: Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Results: All tested migration-related search queries about emigration planning from Ukraine show the positive linear association between Google index and data from official UNHCR statistics; R2 = 0.1211 for searches in Russian and R2 = 0.1831 for searches in Ukrainian. It is noticed that Ukrainians use the Russian language more often to search for terms than Ukrainian. Increase in migration-related search activities in Ukraine such as граница (Rus. border), кордону (Ukr. border); Польща (Poland); Германия (Rus. Germany), Німеччина (Ukr. Germany) and Угорщина and Венгрия (Hungary) correlate strongly with officially UNHCR data for externally displaced persons from Ukraine. All three languages show that the interest in Poland is the highest. When refugees arrive in nearby countries, the search for terms related to Germany, such as crossing the border + Germany, etc., is proliferating. This result confirms our hypothesis that one-third of all refugees will cross into Germany. According to Big Data insights, the estimate of the total number of expected refugees is to expect 5,4 Million refugees. The age group most represented is between 24 and 45 years (data for children are unavailable), and over 65% are women. Conclusion: The increase in migration-related search queries is correlated with the rise in the number of refugees from Ukraine in the EU. Thus this method allows reliable forecasts. Understanding the consequences of forced migration from Ukraine is crucial to enabling UNHCR and governments to develop optimal humanitarian strategies and prepare for refugee reception and possible integration. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates and forecasting that can allow governments and UNHCR to prepare and better respond to the recent humanitarian crisis.
    Keywords: refugee,Ukraine,Big Data,forced migration,Google Trends,UNHCR
    Date: 2022

This nep-mig issue is ©2022 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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