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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Auer, Daniel; Götz, Lilia |
| Abstract: | Whether or not immigration negatively affects the labor market outcomes of natives is an ongoing debate. One of the challenges for empirical evidence is the simultaneity of supply- and demand-side effects. To isolate the demand side, we focus on recent refugees in Germany who are exogenously allocated to districts and largely excluded from the labor market. Using panel data of all German districts between 2010 and 2018 and leveraging variation in the local stock of asylum seekers, we find that 1,000 asylum seekers create 267 jobs on average in a district. This growth effect is mainly driven by a demand for additional labor in service, public administration, and social work. As a consequence, we also observe a significant reduction in the local unemployment rate when more refugees arrive. The dynamic panel data estimates are robust to various sensitivity checks and two different instrumental variable approaches. Quantifying the demand side of immigration adds to our understanding of local labor market dynamics in an increasingly mobile world. |
| Keywords: | labor demand,refugee migration,employment growth,unemployment |
| JEL: | J21 J23 O15 R11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:989&r= |
| By: | Kristin F. Butcher; Kelsey Moran; Tara Watson |
| Abstract: | The U.S. population is aging. We examine whether immigration causally affects the likelihood that the U.S.-born elderly live in institutional settings. Using a shift-share instrument to identify exogenous variation in immigration, we find that a 10 percentage point increase in the less-educated foreign-born labor force share in a local area reduces institutionalization among the elderly by 1.5 and 3.8 percentage points for those aged 65+ and 80+, a 26-29 percent effect relative to the mean. The estimates imply that a typical U.S-born individual over age 65 in the year 2000 was 0.5 percentage points (10 percent) less likely to be living in an institution than would have been the case if immigration had remained at 1980 levels. We show that immigration affects the availability and cost of home services, including those provided by home health aides, gardeners and housekeepers, and other less-educated workers, reducing the cost of aging in the community. |
| JEL: | I11 J14 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29520&r= |
| By: | Riley Wilson (Brigham Young University) |
| Abstract: | I document a new empirical pattern of internal mobility in the United States. Namely, county-to-county migration and commuting drop off discretely at state borders. People are three times as likely to move to a county 15 miles away, but in the same state, than to move to an equally distant county in a different state. These gaps remain even among neighboring counties or counties in the same commuting zone. This pattern is not explained by differences in county characteristics, is not driven by any particular demographic group, and is not explained by pecuniary costs such as differences in state occupational licensing, taxes, or transfer program generosity. However, county-to-county social connectedness (as measured by the number of Facebook linkages) follows a similar pattern. Although the patterns in social networks would be consistent with information frictions, nonpecuniary psychic costs, or behavioral biases such as a sate identity or home bias, the data suggest that state identity and home bias play an outsized role. This empirical pattern has real economic impacts. Building on existing methods, I show that employment in border counties adjusts more slowly after local economic shocks relative to interior counties. These counties also exhibit less in-migration and in-commuting, suggesting the lack of mobility leads to slower labor market adjustment. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, commuting, social networks, border discontinuities |
| JEL: | J6 R1 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-358&r= |
| By: | Samuel Bazzi; Andreas Ferrara; Martin Fiszbein; Thomas P. Pearson; Patrick A. Testa |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a novel perspective on the Great Migration out of the U.S. South. Using a shift-share identification strategy, we show how millions of Southern white migrants transformed the cultural and political landscape across America. Counties with a larger Southern white share by 1940 exhibited growing support for right-wing politics throughout the 20th century and beyond. Racial animus, religious conservatism, and localist attitudes among the Southern white diaspora hastened partisan realignment as the Republican Party found fresh support for the Southern strategy outside the South. Their congressional representatives were more likely to oppose politically liberal legislation, such as the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and to object to the Electoral College count in 2021. These migrants helped shape institutions that reinforced racial inequity and exclusion, they shared ideology through religious organizations and popular media, and they transmitted an array of cultural norms to non-Southern populations. Together, our findings suggest that Southern white migrants may have forever changed the trajectory of American politics. |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J18 N32 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29506&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Facchini; Timothy J. Hatton; Max F. Steinhardt |
| Abstract: | The Immigration Act of 1965 marked a dramatic shift in policy and one with major long term consequences for the volume and composition of immigration to the United States. Here we explore the political economy of a reform that has been overshadowed by the Civil Rights and Great Society programs. We find that public opinion was against expanding immigration, but it was more favorable to abolishing the old country of origin quota system. Votes in the House of Representatives and the Senate were more closely linked to opinion on abolishing the country of origin quotas than to public opinion on the volume of immigration. Support for immigration reform initially followed in the slipstream of civil rights legislation both among members of Congress and their constituents. The final House vote, on a more restrictive version of the bill, was instead more detached from state-level public opinion on civil rights and gained more support from those whose constituents wanted to see immigration decreased. |
| Keywords: | US immigration policy, 1965 Immigration Act, Congressional voting |
| JEL: | N12 F22 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:099&r= |
| By: | Murat Demirci (Department of Economics, Koç University) |
| Abstract: | Populism is on the rise, and democratic rights are deteriorating in many countries as a result of authoritarian policies adopted by populist leaders. This study analyzes how rising political populism in developing countries affects whether their citizens pursue higher education abroad. Applying the Synthetic Control Method, student migration patterns from Hungary, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Indonesia are explored as cases constituting early examples of populism. The estimates show that the rise of populism in these countries increases the number of citizens who attend universities in foreign countries. Limited evidence for worsening higher education options in the origin countries suggests that more students start pursuing foreign education to increase their chances of living abroad after graduation. |
| Keywords: | International Students, Outmigration of Skilled People, Political Populism, Synthetic Control Method. |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2123&r= |
| By: | Li, Xiaolu (Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications); Ma, Lin (Singapore Management University); Tang, Yang (Nanyang Technological University) |
| Abstract: | We structurally estimate the firm-level frictions across prefectures in China and quantify their aggregate and distributional implications. Based on a general equi-librium model with input and output distortions and migration, we show that the firm-level frictions are less dispersed and less correlated with productivity in richer prefectures. Counterfactual exercises show that reducing the within-prefecture mis-allocation increases the aggregate welfare, discourages migration towards large cities, and narrows the spatial inequality. Moreover, internal migration alleviates the impacts of micro-frictions on aggregate welfare and worsens their impacts on spatial inequality. |
| Keywords: | misallocation; regional trade; economic geography; welfare gain |
| JEL: | F12 O11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2021_009&r= |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Bamberg); Laible, Marie-Christine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "We analyze socioemotional skills’ role for destination-language proficiency among recent refugees in Germany. While socioemotional skills have been shown to predict educational outcomes, they have been overlooked for immigrants’ language acquisition. We extend a well-established model of destination-language proficiency and assume that socioemotional skills’ effects manifest through the channels of exposure, efficiency, and incentives. Using longitudinal data and growth curve models, we find that socioemotional skills significantly shape destinationlanguage learning. Openness to new experiences, conscientiousness, risk appetite and locus of control positively relate to language proficiency, while extroversion, agreeableness and neuroticism are insignificant. We observe mediating effects, suggesting that socioemotional skills shape the channels of efficiency or exposure. Moreover, we observe multiplication effects reinforcing other advanta-geous characteristics’ effects on language proficiency. In sum, socioemotional skills affect refugees’ destination-language proficiency and thereby contribute to sustainable economic and societal integration processes. We conclude by discussing policy implications." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Integration ; Deutsch als Fremdsprache ; emotionale Intelligenz ; Geflüchtete ; Persönlichkeitsmerkmale ; Risikobereitschaft ; Selbstverantwortung ; soziale Integration ; soziale Qualifikation ; Spracherwerb ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; 2016-2020 |
| JEL: | D91 J15 J24 I26 |
| Date: | 2021–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202119&r= |