nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2021‒06‒21
seventeen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Migration, Diversity and Regional Risk Sharing By Ventura, Luigi; Ventura, Maria
  2. Looking for the “Best and Brightest": Hiring difficulties and high-skilled foreign workers By Morgan Raux
  3. Nonlinear Taxation and International Mobility in General Equilibrium By Eckhard Janeba; Karl Schulz
  4. The Making of a Lost Generation: Child Labor among Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Meltem Dayioglu; Murat Guray Kirdar; Ismet Koc
  5. The Effects of the Great Migration on Urban Renewal By Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Aastha Rajan; Ying Shi
  6. Immigration, Occupational Choice and Electoral Rules Theory and Evidence on Dual Ballot Openness By Gamalerio, Matteo; Morelli, Massimo; Negri, Margherita
  7. Re-examining the Philosophical Underpinnings of the Melting Pot vs. Multiculturalism in the Current Immigration Debate in the United States By Daniel Woldeab; Robert Yawson; Irina Woldeab
  8. Direct Monetary Costs and Its Determinants in Migration Decisions: Case of Cross-Border Labour Migration from Cambodia to Thailand By Chan Mono Oum; Gazi M. Hassan; Mark J. Holmes
  9. Recent German migration laws: A contribution to fiscal sustainability By Manthei, Gerrit
  10. The effects of refugee immigration on income inequality in Germany: A case study By Manthei, Gerrit
  11. The long-term growth impact of refugee migration in Europe: A case study By Manthei, Gerrit
  12. Does Immigration Grow the Pie? Asymmetric Evidence from Germany By Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli; Eugenia Vella
  13. Human capital transfer of German-speaking migrants in Eastern Europe, 1780s-1820s By Blum, Matthias; Krauss, Karl-Peter; Myeshkov, Dmytro
  14. Health expenditures, remittances, and climate vulnerability: Evidence from Bangladesh By Gazi M Hassan
  15. A Bibliography Search on International Migration and Remittances Literature during the period of 1971-2020: A Case of Bangladesh By Khan, Adnan
  16. A Skill-specific Dynamic Labour Supply and Labour Demand Framework: A Scenario Analysis for the Western Balkan Countries to 2030 By Sandra M. Leitner
  17. Panic? Probing Angst over Immigration and Crime By Clotilde Mahé; Sergio Parra-Cely

  1. By: Ventura, Luigi; Ventura, Maria
    Abstract: The economic consequences of migration have become the topic of many recent contributions in theoretical and applied economics. However, only a handful of papers have dealt with the implications of migration for risk sharing. We intend to fill in this gap in the literature by exploring the effects of migration and the ensuing cultural diversity on risk sharing in receiving economies, by using data on US states in the period 2000-2015. Our empirical results strongly suggest that migration enhances risk sharing in host economies, but non monotonically so. Moreover, cultural diversity is key in this risk sharing-enhancing effect of migration.
    Keywords: Regional risk sharing, Consumption insurance, Migration, Diversity
    JEL: C23 C51 E21 F36
    Date: 2021–05
  2. By: Morgan Raux (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: This paper studies the complementarity between domestic and foreign skilled workers. It develops a simple model where employers seek to recruit a foreign worker when finding domestic workers takes more time. This paper confirms the predictions of the model. I rely on a within-firm within-occupation identification strategy to compare recruitment decisions made by a given employer for similar positions that differ in job posting duration. To identify this relationship, I have collected and assembled a new and original dataset at the job level. I match online job postings to administrative data on labor condition applications (LCAs) submitted as the first step in applying for H-1B temporary skilled worker visas. I find that employers are 28 percent more likely to submit an LCA when the job posting duration is one standard deviation longer. I provide evidence suggesting that this phenomenon is due to insufficient domestic labor supply in these occupations.
    Keywords: H-1B Work Permit, Hiring difficulties, Web Scraping.
    JEL: J61 J2 C26
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Eckhard Janeba; Karl Schulz
    Abstract: We study the nonlinear taxation of internationally mobile workers in general equilibrium. Contrary to conventional wisdom, in general equilibrium, migration lowers the bottom tax rate but raises the top tax rate, making the optimal tax system more progressive and moving tax rates closer to those in an economy with fixed wages. The intuition is that governments attract high-skilled workers by amplifying pre-tax wage inequality and partly offsetting trickle-down forces from production complementarities. This finding raises doubts about the importance of trickle-down for optimal taxation and offers a novel explanation for why globalization may increase tax progressivity and wage inequality.
    Keywords: optimal taxation, general equilibrium, trickle-down effects, migration, tax/subsidy competition
    JEL: H21 H24 H73 F22 R13
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Meltem Dayioglu (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Ismet Koc (Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University)
    Abstract: Millions of children are forcibly displaced around the world, making child labor a serious risk. However, little is known about this topic due to the difficulty of finding representative datasets for this population and information on child labor. In this study, we use a representative dataset on Syrian refugees in Turkey, the largest refugee group in any single country, to examine the incidence of child labor and its determinants. The incidence of paid work is remarkably high among boys: 17.4% of 12-14 year-olds and 45.1% of 15-17 year-olds are in paid employment. We find that paid work is positively associated with poverty, proficiency in Turkish, living in an industrialized region in Turkey, originating from rural areas in Syria and living in a household with a young, female, or less-educated head. Family composition matters more for girls’ employment than boys’. Boys’ (girls’) employment increases if their father (mother) is alive – suggesting network effects. Being older at arrival is highly associated with child labor, indicating that difficulty with school integration drives children into employment.
    Keywords: child labor; forced displacement; Syrian refugees; paid work; migrants; Turkey.
    JEL: J13 J15 J61 O15 O53
    Date: 2021–06
  5. By: Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Aastha Rajan; Ying Shi
    Abstract: The Great Migration significantly increased the number of African Americans moving to northern and western cities beginning in the first half of the twentieth century. We show that their arrival shaped “slum clearance” and urban redevelopment efforts in receiving cities. To estimate the effect of migrants, we instrument for Black population changes using a shift-share instrument that interacts historical migration patterns with local economic shocks that predict Black out-migration from the South. We find that local governments responded by undertaking more urban renewal projects that aimed to redevelop and rehabilitate “blighted” areas. More Black migrants also led to an increase in the estimated number of displaced families. This underscores the contribution of spatial policies such as urban renewal towards understanding the long-term consequences of the Great Migration on central cities and Black neighborhoods and individuals.
    Keywords: urban renewal; great migration
    JEL: J15 N92 R31 R58
    Date: 2021–02–25
  6. By: Gamalerio, Matteo; Morelli, Massimo; Negri, Margherita
    Abstract: Do institutions affect the level of openness of immigration policies? We study theoretically and empirically how different electoral systems affect the reception of refugees, comparing Single Round Plurality with Dual Ballot systems. We focus on mayoral elections at the municipality level. Our model predicts that municipalities that elect the mayor with a Dual Ballot system receive more refugee- related fiscal transfers from the central government and are more likely to host refugees, compared to municipalities that use a Single Round Plurality system. Using data from Italian municipalities and regression discontinuity design, we provide empirical evidence that confirms the predictions of the theoretical model.
    Keywords: Electoral Rules; Immigration; Occupational choice; SPRAR
    JEL: D72 J24 J61 R23
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Daniel Woldeab; Robert Yawson; Irina Woldeab
    Abstract: Immigration to the United States is certainly not a new phenomenon, and it is therefore natural for immigration, culture and identity to be given due attention by the public and policy makers. However, current discussion of immigration, legal and illegal, and the philosophical underpinnings is lost in translation, not necessarily on ideological lines, but on political orientation. In this paper we reexamine the philosophical underpinnings of the melting pot versus multiculturalism as antecedents and precedents of current immigration debate and how the core issues are lost in translation. We take a brief look at immigrants and the economy to situate the current immigration debate. We then discuss the two philosophical approaches to immigration and how the understanding of the philosophical foundations can help streamline the current immigration debate.
    Date: 2021–06
  8. By: Chan Mono Oum (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: Migration cost is a critical factor of human labour mobility, and little is known about how much migrant workers would pay for their foreign jobs. Previous studies do not capture the effects of direct worker-paid migration costs on migration decisions; the endeavour to ensure a positive return on migration thus remains a puzzling and new frontier in labour migration research. The paper investigates the effect of the direct monetary costs on formal or informal migration decisions of Cambodian labour migrants to Thailand, using unique data from a 422-household survey in Cambodia. The survey also includes data from 17 registered recruiting agencies that enable us to construct the alternative specific conditional logit model with alternative migration cost-specifics. After controlling for the endogenous costs of moving using the Control Function method, we find that reducing the total cost of labour migration lowers the probability of choosing irregular migration by 15.8 percentage points. The choice of regular or irregular migration is also determined by other factors such as destination countries' immigration policies, such as deportation, length of stay, and income. The labour migration policies should be revisited by considering these factors to curb the high migration cost.
    Keywords: costs of migration; regular migration; irregular migration; Cambodia
    JEL: F22 J08 R23
    Date: 2021–06–10
  9. By: Manthei, Gerrit
    Abstract: The German government recently adopted a large number of changes in migration legislation related to asylum seekers and refugees who have immigrated since 2015. While some reforms may have more socio-political impacts, most also have fiscal implications. This work analyses the effects of individual legislative changes on the German fiscal system based on the established method of generational accounting. The results show that these laws likely will have overall positive effects on future German public finances. They also stress the importance of successful integration in general and the positive financial contributions from the immigration of relatively young, skilled workers.
    Keywords: immigration,law reform,fiscal sustainability
    JEL: E62 F22 H68 K37
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Manthei, Gerrit
    Abstract: Income inequality is a major public concern in many Western countries. The problem has intensified with the recent high immigration rates in Europe, particularly from outside the continent. However, the linkage between refugee immigration and income inequality in host countries has not been adequately investigated. This article employs a two-step approach to examine whether and to what extent refugee immigration affects income inequality. The first step is a literature review, the second the formulation and utilization of a classic production model with labor sub-divided into different qualification groups. After a discussion of the theoretical implications of the model, it is then applied to Germany's refugee immigration situation in 2015 and 2016. The results suggest that a rise in mostly low-skilled immigration may be accompanied by an increase in income inequality. The linkage between the concepts highlights the need for further research as well as for efforts to curb uncontrolled, low-skilled immigration.
    Keywords: Refugees,Immigration,Income Inequality,Qualifications,Wages
    JEL: J31 J60 O15
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Manthei, Gerrit
    Abstract: Many questions have been raised about the political and economic consequences of the recent surge in refugee immigration in Europe. Can refugee immigration promote long-term per-capita growth? How are the drivers of per-capita growthinfluenced by immigration? What are the policy implications of refugee immigration? Using an adjusted Cobb-Douglas productionfunction,with labour divided into two complementary groups,this study attempts to provide some answers. By applying the model to current immigration data from Germany, the study finds that refugee immigration can lead to long-term per-capita growth in the host country and that the growth is higher if immigrants are relatively young and have sufficiently high qualifications. Further, capital inflowsare a prerequisite for boosting per-capita growth. These findings can inform the migration policiesof countries that continue to grapple with refugee immigration.
    Keywords: Refugee,Immigration,Growth,Labour Supply,Wages
    JEL: E20 F22 O41
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli; Eugenia Vella
    Abstract: We provide empirical evidence suggesting that net migration shocks can have substantial demand effects, potentially acting like positive Keynesian supply shocks. Using monthly administrative data (2006-2019) for Germany in a structural VAR, we show that the shocks stimulate vacancies, wages, house prices, consumption, investment, net exports, and output. Unemployment falls for natives (dominant jobcreation effect), driving a decline in total unemployment, while rising for foreigners (dominant job-competition effect). The geographic origin of migrants and the education level of residents matter crucially for the transmission. Overall, the evidence implies that the policy debate should focus on redistributive strategies between natives and foreigners.
    Keywords: Migration, job creation, job competition, Keynesian supply shocks
    JEL: C11 C32 E32 F22
    Date: 2021–05–10
  13. By: Blum, Matthias; Krauss, Karl-Peter; Myeshkov, Dmytro
    Abstract: Prior to the Age of Mass Migration, Germans left central Europe to settle primarily in modernday Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. Despite the harsh conditions that the first generation of settlers had to endure, their descendants often fared better, not worse, compared to native population groups. This study offers a possible explanation for this surprising outcome. We use data on approximately 11,500 individuals to estimate and compare basic numeracy scores of German settlers and other populations groups in target regions. We find that German settlers generally had superior basic numeracy levels, suggesting that these settlers must have contributed positively to the human capital endowment in their target regions. The numeracy of Germans was somewhat higher than the numeracy of Hungarians and substantially higher than the numeracy of Russians, Ukrainians and Serbs. We do not find noteworthy differences in terms of numeracy between German emigrants and the population they left behind, suggesting the absence of substantial migrant selection.
    Keywords: Migration,Economic History,Germany,Hungary,Russian Empire,Ukraine,Eastern Europe
    JEL: N13 N23
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Gazi M Hassan
    Abstract: Remittances’ effect on a household’s health outcome (e.g. Infant mortality) is ambiguous, but the impact on health expenditure is positive and less equivocal in literature. This paper puts the relationship between health expenditure and remittances into a stress test to see whether it survives the adverse impact of climate change. Using a natural experiment of rainfall-driven remittances, I provide an experimental measure for remittances’ effect on the health expenditure among rural households in southern Bangladesh. Health expenditure and remittances are jointly related; therefore, I use the instrumental variable approach. The treatment of remittances is randomly assigned to households who suffered losses due to a natural shock from the cyclone-Roanu enabling the instrument, exogenous variation in rainfall interacted with cyclone affected migrant household’s distance to the local weather stations, to identify the average treatment effect for the treatment group (cyclone-affected remittances recipient households). I find that while remittances cause household health expenditures to increase, the marginal effect of remittances is heterogeneous and negative conditional on the household’s exposure to the level of vulnerability proxied by the household’s distance to cyclone shelter. In other words, the health expenditure-remittances nexus gets weaker with the adverse effect of climate change. Specifically, I find that an increase in remittances by a Taka increases health expenditure by 0.24 Taka (24 Paisa) in the absence of any climate hazard but reduces health expenditure by 0.10 Taka (or 10 Paisa) if the measure of climate vulnerability increases by one standard deviation from its mean value. For countries like Bangladesh, which is exceptionally vulnerable to natural hazards, climate vulnerabilities can render the financing of health care costs through remittances unsustainable even if households receive regular and sizable flows.
    Keywords: Health expenditure, remittances, climate vulnerability, climate change, endogeneity, natural experiment
    JEL: I1 I19 F24
    Date: 2021–06
  15. By: Khan, Adnan
    Abstract: With nearly 8 million of its 160 million residents living abroad, Bangladesh has one of the world’s largest emigrant populations, ranking only behind India, Mexico, China, Russia, and Syria, according to estimates from the United Nations’ Population Division. The increasing outward orientation of Bangladeshis after national independence in 1971 as well as the 1973 oil boom and thus an increasing need for cheap labor in the Middle East then led to a rapid growth of international labor migration from Bangladesh. In 1976, only 6,000 Bangladeshis left to work abroad. Since then, the number of both temporary expatriate workers and permanent out-migrants has increased dramatically. The main purpose of this paper is to highlight how much progress has been made in the field of international migration and remittances research on the fiftieth anniversary of Bangladesh's independence. Thus, this paper delve out all segments of international migration from Bangladesh to worldwide and remittances inflows vice versa.
    Keywords: migration, expatriate, diaspora, temporary, workers, labour, remittances, literature.
    JEL: J6 J60 J61 J62
    Date: 2020
  16. By: Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This paper pursues a scenario analysis to shed light on past and potential future labour supply and labour demand dynamics of different skill groups in the six Western Balkan countries (WB6). It differentiates between four educational levels (low, medium-general, medium-VET, and high) and looks at a medium-term projection period until 2030. Starting from a baseline scenario, it examines how several different scenarios would affect the employment situation of different skill groups. These scenarios are built on the possible impact which potential labour market policies, education policies, migration flows and policies as well as GDP growth developments and structural change could have on ‘surplus’ and ‘shortage’ situations of different skill groups. Simulation results of the baseline scenario show that both labour shortage and excess labour for different skill groups would coexist alongside each other within the projection period. In all WB6 countries, the low educated (given their low activity rates) would experience labour shortages either already within or shortly after the projection period. Similarly, while Med-VETs, Med-GENs and the highly educated would also face labour shortages within or shortly after the projection period in the majority of WB6 countries, in some of these countries, there would also be evidence of growing excess labour, such as among Med-VETs in Montenegro and Kosovo, Med-GENs in Kosovo and the highly educated in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. Additional scenarios point to important country-specific policy options that can help to mitigate these projected labour market imbalances among different skill groups and, furthermore, contribute to an improved economic development trajectory for these economies.
    Keywords: dynamic labour supply-labour demand model, scenario analysis, skill demand by educational groups, skill shortages and surplus, net migration flows, Western Balkan countries
    JEL: J11 J21 J23
    Date: 2021–06
  17. By: Clotilde Mahé (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg); Sergio Parra-Cely (Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Ecuador)
    Abstract: We examine empirically whether immigration affects crime in an emerging country, Ecuador. We exploit the fact that immigration flows of Venezuelans suddenly evolved from voluntary to forced, and occurred disproportionately along land borders. We use nationally representative administrative and survey data to precisely estimate an economically null effect of Venezuelan immigration on property and violent crime. We also show that natives are more likely to believe that immigration worsens the economy, despite clear evidence of negative labour market impact due to recent Venezuelan inflows. Results confirm that fears over immigration and crime are not necessarily supported by facts.
    Keywords: Immigration, Crime, Ecuador, Venezuela, Latin America.
    JEL: F22 K42
    Date: 2021

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