nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2020‒11‒16
nine papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Return and Onward Migration and Labour Market Entry. Empirical Analysis and Microsimulation Projection for Austria By Peter Huber; Martin Spielauer
  2. Immigration Stocks and Flows, APS and Electoral Register Data By Augustin de Coulon; Richmond Egyei; Jonathan Wadsworth
  3. School Friendship Networks, Homophily and Multiculturalism: Evidence from European Countries By Campigotto, Nicola; Rapallini, Chiara; Rustichini, Aldo
  4. Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement, old age support, and internal migration of older adults in China By Simiao Chen; Zhangfeng Jin; Klaus Prettner
  5. Hosting Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right: Evidence from France By Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski
  6. An Executive Order Worth $100 Billion: The Impact of an Immigration Ban’s Announcement on Fortune 500 Firms’ Valuation By Dany Bahar; Prithwiraj Choudhury; Britta Glennon
  7. Microsimulation Projection of the Educational Integration and Labour Force Participation of First- and Second-Generation Immigrants By Thomas Horvath; Martin Spielauer; Marian Fink
  8. Contact vs. Information: What shapes attitudes towards immigration? Evidence from an experiment in schools By Florio, Erminia
  9. A Sense of No Future in an Uncertain Present: Altruism and Risk-Seeking among Syrian Refugees in Jordan By El-Bialy, Nora; Fraile Aranda, Elisa; Nicklisch, Andreas; Saleh, Lamis; Voigt, Stefan

  1. By: Peter Huber; Martin Spielauer (WIFO)
    Abstract: This paper examines return and onward migration of immigrants to Austria, taking into account immigration type, country of origin, and employment outcomes. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative records of the Austrian Social Security Database of immigrants who entered Austria between 2009 and 2017. It is the first such study for Austria. We find that about 25 percent of immigrants leave Austria within less than a year of their arrival and 50 percent within 5.5 years. Return and onward migration is closely correlated with immigration type and origin. Refugees have a very low likelihood to leave Austria, whereas labour migrants have a substantially higher one. Women are more likely to stay than men and immigrants from Turkey have the lowest return probabilities among all origin groups. Emigration is also closely correlated with labour market success, the likelihood to stay depending on the speed of labour market integration. The consequence of these patterns is that the composition of the stock of immigrants living in Austria differs from the structure of new immigrants entering the country. We apply dynamic microsimulation to project the size and structure of the first-generation immigrant population in Austria as well as its labour market integration up to 2060. Our simulation results suggest that eventually, over 90 percent of the resident immigrant population attains at least some labour market experience and that the differences in return and onward migration across immigrant groups work to shift the structure of the immigrant population in the direction of third-country nationals.
    Keywords: Return migration, duration models, microsimulation
    Date: 2020–11–03
  2. By: Augustin de Coulon; Richmond Egyei; Jonathan Wadsworth
    Abstract: The UK relies on survey data (the APS) to produce estimates of its local area immigrant populations at higher frequencies than generated by the decennial Census. All sample surveys come with some level of uncertainty attached to their estimates which can be particularly acute at local area level where sample populations are smaller. We therefore explore whether the local area population counts of immigrants contained in the electoral 'register' (ER) could help improve the accuracy and reliability of published local area migration statistics.
    Keywords: immigration, measurement, electoral register
    JEL: C81 C83 F22 J61
    Date: 2020–07
  3. By: Campigotto, Nicola; Rapallini, Chiara; Rustichini, Aldo
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of school friendship networks among adolescents, proposing a model of network formation and estimating it using a sample (CILS4EU) of about 10,000 secondary school students in four countries: England, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. We test the idea that networks arise according to homophily along many characteristics (gender, school achievement and ethnic and cultural backgrounds), and assess the relative importance of each factor. In addition to gender, we find that country of origin, generational status and religion predict friendship for foreign-born students. For country-born individuals, ties depend on a broader set of factors, including socioeconomic status and school achievement. In sum, homophilic preferences go considerably beyond ethnicity. Multiculturalism, which gives prominence to ethnic backgrounds, risks emphasising the differences in that dimension at the expense of affinity in others.
    Keywords: Friendship,Homophily,Immigration,Networks,Social cohesion
    JEL: D85 J15 Z13
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Simiao Chen (Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University); Zhangfeng Jin (College of Economics, Zhejiang University); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: This study examines the causal impact of retirement on migration decisions. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design approach, combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 Chinese older adults, we find that retirement increases the probability of migration by 12.9 p.p. (an 80% increase in migration). Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to inter-temporal substitution. Retirement-induced migrants are lower-educated, have restricted access to social security, and come from origins with high living costs. Relying on old age support from adult children in migration is a likely mechanism. These findings are consistent with a simple theoretical model of migration for older adults.
    Keywords: Retirement, Internal migration, Old age support, China, Regression discontinuity design
    JEL: J14 J26 J61
    Date: 2020–10
  5. By: Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Does exposure to refugees change the political preferences of natives towards far-right parties, and how does this change in preferences occur? This paper examines the political economy of refugee-hosting. Using the opening of refugee centers in France between 1995 and 2017, I show that voting for far-right parties in cities with such opening between two presidential elections has fallen by about 2 percent. The drop in far-right voting is higher in municipalities with a small population, working in the primary and secondary sectors, with low educational levels and few migrants. I show that this negative effect can not be explained by an economic channel , but rather by a composition channel, through natives' avoidance, and a contact channel, through natives' exposure to refugees. I provide suggestive evidence that too-disruptive exposure to refugees, as measured by the magnitude of the inflows, the cultural distance and the media salience of refugees, can mitigate the beneficial effects of contact on reducing far-right support.
    Keywords: Migration,Refugees,Political Economy,Preferences Keywords: Migration,Preferences
    Date: 2020–10
  6. By: Dany Bahar; Prithwiraj Choudhury; Britta Glennon
    Abstract: On June 22, 2020, President Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) that suspended new work visas, barring nearly 200,000 foreign workers and their dependents from entering the United States and preventing American companies from hiring skilled immigrants using H-1B or L1 visas. Exploiting this shock, and using event study methodology analyzing the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) of Fortune 500 companies following this order, we find that the EO statistically and economically significantly caused negative CAARs of up to 0.45%, the equivalent of over 100 billion of US dollars of losses, based on the firms’ valuation before the event. Our results are particularly pronounced for firms that had maintained or increased their reliance on skilled immigrant workers over the prior years.
    JEL: G14 G38 J61
    Date: 2020–10
  7. By: Thomas Horvath; Martin Spielauer (WIFO); Marian Fink
    Abstract: In this paper, we present the results of a dynamic microsimulation analysis that examines how changes in the educational integration of first- and second-generation immigrants would affect the future size of the Austrian labour force. Due to population ageing and migration, the number and proportion of people with a migration background will increase significantly in the coming decades. Differences in educational careers, as well as differences in labour market participation between the second generation of migrants with EU or EFTA backgrounds and people without a migration background, would have only a minor impact on future labour force participation dynamics. In contrast, closing education and labour force participation gaps for the second generation of migrants with a third country background would lead to a significant increase in the size and qualification structure of the working population.
    Keywords: Integration, Migration, Education, Human Capital, Dynamic microsimulation
    Date: 2020–11–03
  8. By: Florio, Erminia
    Abstract: We analyze whether (correct) information provision on immigration is more effective than contact in shaping attitudes towards immigration. We collect data from a randomized experiment in 18 middle- and high-school classes in the city of Rome. Half of the classes meet a refugee from Mauritania, whereas the rest of them attend a lecture on figures and numbers on immigration in Italy and the world. On average, students develop better attitudes towards immigration (especially in the case of policy preferences and the perceived number of immigrants in their country) after the information treatment more than they do after the contact treatment, whereas neither treatment affects feelings associated to immigrants. Also, students having received the information treatment strongly adjust their knowledge on immigration. However, students' individual characteristics and school type (i.e. middle vs. high school) affect treatments' effectiveness.
    Keywords: Attitudes towards immigration,Information Provision,Contact Theory,Randomized Experiment
    JEL: C93 J15 Z1 Z13
    Date: 2020
  9. By: El-Bialy, Nora; Fraile Aranda, Elisa; Nicklisch, Andreas; Saleh, Lamis; Voigt, Stefan
    Abstract: An unprecedented number of refugees from Syria has sought refuge in both the Middle East and Europe since the beginning of the civil war in Syria in 2011. We analyze the level of altruism and risk-seeking among Syrian civil war victims in Jordan. We find systematic variations in their revealed levels of altruism and their willingness to accept risk: feeling as if having no future coincides with both more egoistic and more risk-seeking behavior. Refugees' behavioral responses and their sense of no future correlate with their current personal living experiences. Our findings suggest that both the sense of no future and the accompanying behavioral responses are primarily associated with miserable current living conditions rather than with experiences directly related to the civil war in Syria. Policy implications of these findings seem straightforward: Policy makers need to provide additional assistance for facilitating family reunion.
    Keywords: experiments,altruism,risk-seeking,psychological distress,migration,civil war
    JEL: C92 D64 D81 D91 F22 H56 Z13
    Date: 2020

This nep-mig issue is ©2020 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.