nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2020‒10‒12
sixteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Dismantling the 'Jungle' : Relocation and Extreme Voting in France By Paul Vertier; Max Viskanic; Matteo Gamalerio
  2. Workplace Contact and Support for Anti-Immigration Parties By Henrik Andersson; Sirus H. Dehdari
  3. Exposure to ethnic minorities changes attitudes to them By Sabina Albrecht; Riccardo Ghidoni; Elena Cettolin; Sigrid Suetens
  4. U.S. Immigration Policy and Immigrant Fertility By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Arenas-Arroyo, Esther
  5. Fertility Changes and Replacement Migration By Yunus Aksoy; Gylfi Zoega
  6. Impact of State Children’s Health Insurance Program on Fertility of Immigrant Women By Kabir Dasgupta; Keshar Ghimire; Alexander Plum
  7. Give Me Your Tired and Your Poor: Impact of a Large-Scale Amnesty Program for Undocumented Refugees By Bahar, Dany; Ibanez, Ana Maria; Rozo, Sandra V.
  8. Mass Refugee Inflow and Long-run Prosperity: Lessons from the Greek Population Resettlement By Elie Murard; Seyhun Orcan Sakalli
  9. English Skills and Early Labour Market Integration of Humanitarian Migrants By Cheng, Zhiming; Wang, Ben; Jiang, Zhou; Taksa, Lucy; Tani, Massimiliano
  10. Financial Capital and Immigrant Self-Employment: Evidence from a Swedish Reform By Aldén, Lina; Hammarstedt, Mats; Miao, Chizheng
  11. The Role of Unemployment and Job Change When Estimating the Returns to Migration By Emmler, Julian; Fitzenberger, Bernd
  12. Importing Inequality: Immigration and the Top 1 Percent By Advani, Arun; Koenig, Felix; Pessina, Lorenzo; Summers, Andy
  13. China’s mobility barriers and employment allocations By Ngai, L Rachel; Pissarides, Christopher A; Wang, Jin
  14. International Student Enrollments and Selectivity: Evidence from the Optional Practical Training Program By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Shih, Kevin Y.; Xu, Huanan
  15. Regional labour migration - Stylized facts for Germany By Mark Trede; Michael Zimmermann
  16. An Introduction to the Economics of Immigration in OECD Countries By Edo, Anthony; Ragot, Lionel; Rapoport, Hillel; Sardoschau, Sulin; Steinmayr, Andreas; Sweetman, Arthur

  1. By: Paul Vertier; Max Viskanic (Sciences Po); Matteo Gamalerio (Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB))
    Abstract: Large migrant inflows have in the past spurred anti-immigrant sentiment, but is there a way small inflows can have a different impact? In this paper, we exploit the redistribution of migrants in the aftermath of the dismantling of the “Calais Jungle” in France to study the impact of the exposure to few migrants. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that in the presence of a migrant center (CAO), the percentage growth rate of vote shares for the main far-right party (Front National, our proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment) between 2012 and 2017 is reduced by about 12.3 percentage points. Given that the Front National vote share increased by 20% on average between 2012 and 2017 in French municipalities, this estimation suggests that the growth rate of Front National votes in municipalities with a CAO was only 40% compared to the increase in municipalities without a CAO (which corresponds to a 3.9 percentage points lower increase). These effects, which dissipate spatially and depend on city characteristics, and crucially on the inflow’s size, point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport (1954)).
    Keywords: migrant inflows; voting
    Date: 2020–09
  2. By: Henrik Andersson (Uppsala University); Sirus H. Dehdari (Uppsala University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the consequences of an increased presence of immigrants in the workplace on anti-immigration voting behavior by combining detailed Swedish workplace data with election outcomes for a large anti-immigration party (the Sweden Democrats). At each election precinct, we match the election outcomes with the share of non-European co-workers among the average native-born worker for three consecutive elections between 2006 and 2014. Using a fixed effects approach, we estimate a negative effect of an increased share of non-Europeans in the workplace on support for the Sweden Democrats: a one standard deviation increase in the average share of non-European co-workers decreases the precinct vote share for the Sweden Democrats by roughly 0.4 percentage points. We show that these results are solely driven by within-skill contact, and by contact within occupations that are less exposed to job loss. We interpret the results as supporting the contact hypothesis: that increased interactions with minorities r duce prejudice among native-born voters, which leads to lower support for anti-immigration parties.
    Date: 2020–02
  3. By: Sabina Albrecht; Riccardo Ghidoni; Elena Cettolin; Sigrid Suetens
    Abstract: Does exposure to ethnic minorities change the majority’s attitudes towards them? We investigate this question using novel panel data on attitudes from a general-population sample in the Netherlands matched to geographical data on refugees. We find that people who live in neighborhoods of refugees for a sufficiently long time acquire a more positive attitude. Instead, people living in municipalities hosting refugees, but not in their close neighborhood, develop a more negative attitude. The positive neighborhood effect is particularly strong for groups that are likely to have personal contact with refugees suggesting that contact with minorities can effectively reduce prejudice.
    Keywords: prejudice, ethnic diversity, attitudes to immigrants, discrimination, intergroup contact, refugee crisis, individual-level fixed-effects regressions, lab-in-the-field experiment
    JEL: J15 R23 D91 C23
    Date: 2020–08
  4. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Arenas-Arroyo, Esther (Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: Using the 2005-2014 waves of the American Community Survey –a period characterized by the rapid expansion of interior immigration enforcement initiatives across the United States, we evaluate the impact of a tougher policy environment on undocumented immigrants' fertility. We find that a one standard deviation increases in enforcement lowers childbearing among likely undocumented women by 5 percent. The effect emanates from police-based measures linked to increased deportations, which may raise uncertainty about the future of the family unit and its resources. Understanding these impacts is important given the critical contributions of immigrants and their offspring to diversity, the economy and the sustainability of the welfare state.
    Keywords: fertility, immigration policy, interior immigration enforcement, undocumented immigrants, unauthorized immigrants, United States
    JEL: J13 J15 K37
    Date: 2020–09
  5. By: Yunus Aksoy; Gylfi Zoega
    Abstract: We study OECD countries that differ in immigration policies but share a high level of human capital. We find significant negative statistical relationship between 16 years lagged fertility and the rate of immigration in a panel of 23 countries, which indicates that immigration compensates for low fertility in the labor market.
    Keywords: fertility, replacement migration
    JEL: J13 J61
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Kabir Dasgupta (NZ Work Research Institute, Faculty of Business, Economics and Law at AUT University); Keshar Ghimire; Alexander Plum (NZ Work Research Institute, Faculty of Business, Economics and Law at AUT University)
    Abstract: Between 1997 and 2000, all states in the United States (US) enacted the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) to provide publicly funded health insurance coverage for children in low income families. However, only 15 states including the District of Columbia chose to provide coverage for children of newly arrived immigrants in their SCHIP. We exploite the resulting state and time variation in the implementation of the program in a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the effect of a publicly funded children’s health insurance benefit on immigrant women’s fertility. While estimates from full samples show that the net effect of the program was indistinguishable from zero, we find a significant positive effect on the fertility of unmarried immigrant women, both at extensive and at intensive margin. Our findings have important policy implications for societies experiencing a persistent decline in fertility.
    Keywords: State Children’s Health Insurance Program; Immigrant Fertility; Birth rate; Quantity-quality tradeoff
    JEL: I13 J13
    Date: 2020–08
  7. By: Bahar, Dany (Brookings Institution); Ibanez, Ana Maria (Inter-American Development Bank); Rozo, Sandra V. (USC Marshall School of Business)
    Abstract: Between 2014 and 2020 over 1.8 million refugees fled from Venezuela to Colombia as a result of a humanitarian crisis, many of them without a regular migratory status. We study the short- to medium-term labor market impacts in Colombia of the Permiso Temporal de Permanencia program, the largest migratory amnesty program offered to undocumented migrants in a developing country in modern history. The program granted regular migratory status and work permits to nearly half a million undocumented Venezuelan migrants in Colombia in August 2018. To identify the effects of the program, we match confidential administrative data on the location of undocumented migrants with department-monthly data from household surveys and compare labor outcomes in departments that were granted different average time windows to register for the amnesty online, before and after the program roll-out. We are only able to distinguish negative albeit negligible effects of the program on the formal employment of Colombian workers. These effects are predominantly concentrated in highly educated and in female workers.
    Keywords: migration, work permit, labor markets, amnesties
    JEL: F22 O15 R23
    Date: 2020–09
  8. By: Elie Murard (IZA - Institute of Labor Economics); Seyhun Orcan Sakalli (King’s Business School, King’s College Londo)
    Abstract: We investigate the long-term consequences of mass refugee inflow on economic develop-ment. After the Greco-Turkish war of 1919–1922, 1.2 million Greek Orthodox were forciblyresettled from Turkey to Greece, increasing the host population by more than 20% within afew months. To examine the long-term effects of this event, we build a novel geocoded datasetlocating refugee settlements across the universe of more than four thousand Greek municipali-ties that existed in 1920. Using a battery of empirical strategies relying on different margins ofspatial and temporal variation in the refugee inflow, we find that localities with a greater shareof Greek refugees in 1923 display higher level of prosperity and industrialization sixty yearsafter the event. These long-run benefits of refugees appear to be driven by the provision of newagricultural know-how and the transfer of technological knowledge in textile, which fosteredgrowth through higher diversity in complementary skills. The economic gains of the resettle-ment were lower in places where refugees were clustered in separate enclaves and where theirskills were less easily transferable due to local geographic conditions.
    Keywords: Refugees, Immigration, historical persistence, economic development
    JEL: O10 O43 N34 N44
    Date: 2020–02
  9. By: Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Wang, Ben (Macquarie University, Sydney); Jiang, Zhou (NILS, Flinders University); Taksa, Lucy (Macquarie University, Sydney); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: We use the panel data from the Building a New Life in Australia survey to examine the relationships between proficiency in English and labour market outcomes among humanitarian migrants. Having better general or speaking skills in English is certainly associated with a higher propensity for participation in the labour force and getting a job. However, we also find that, compared to other domains of English proficiency, such as listening, reading and writing, proficiency in English speaking skills has been the least improved domain for humanitarian migrants' who have participated in an English training program. Our paper explores the channels leading to these outcomes, finding that self-esteem, self-efficacy and general health partially mediate the relationship between English proficiency and labour force participation. We also find that self-efficacy, general health and indicative serious mental illness partially mediate the relationship between better English proficiency and the chance of getting a job.
    Keywords: labour force participation, proficiency in English, humanitarian migrant, Australia, employment
    JEL: F22 I26 J24 J61
    Date: 2020–09
  10. By: Aldén, Lina (Department of Economics and Statistics); Hammarstedt, Mats (Linnæus University and); Miao, Chizheng (Department of Economics and Statistics)
    Abstract: We study the role of capital requirement in immigrants’ self-employment decision with the help of a reform implemented in Sweden in 2010 which reduced capital requirements for limited liability companies. For both men and women, the reform increased both the probability of starting a limited liability firm and the probability of changing corporate form for those self-employed prior to the reform. We found that the reform affected immigrants and natives differently. Natives primarily responded to the reform by changing corporate form whereas immigrant men, especially those originating from the Middle East, responded to the reform by starting limited liability firms. Small differences emerge when we compare native women with immigrant women. Finally, it is the wage employed who start a limited liability business in the post-reform period, underlining the fact that access to financial capital is an obstacle for wage-employed individuals who opt for self-employment. This is true for both immigrants and natives. In contrast, more marginalised groups (i.e. unemployed immigrants), do not respond to the reform by starting limited liability firms.
    Keywords: Self-employment; Financial capital; Limited liability; Immigrants
    JEL: J15 J68 L26 L51
    Date: 2020–09–29
  11. By: Emmler, Julian (Humboldt University Berlin); Fitzenberger, Bernd (Humboldt University Berlin)
    Abstract: Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, we focus on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and employment during the last few months before migration. We find sizeable positive earnings and employment gains of migration both in comparison to staying or job change. The gains vary considerably with pre-migration earnings and with the counterfactual considered. Future migrants have worse expectations for their labor market prospects in the East and migrants show a greater openness to mobility.
    Keywords: migration, returns, selection, unemployment, moving costs
    JEL: J61 R23 O15 P25
    Date: 2020–09
  12. By: Advani, Arun (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Koenig, Felix (Carnegie Mellon University); Pessina, Lorenzo (Columbia University); Summers, Andy (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the contribution of migrants to the rise in UK top incomes. Using administrative data on the universe of UK taxpayers we show migrants are over-represented at the top of the income distribution, with migrants twice as prevalent in the top 0.1% as anywhere in the bottom 97%. These high incomes are predominantly from labour, rather than capital, and migrants are concentrated in only a handful of industries, predominantly finance. Almost all (85%) of the growth in the UK top 1% income share over the past 20 years can be attributed to migration.
    Keywords: income inequality, migration, top income shares
    JEL: H2 J3 J6
    Date: 2020–09
  13. By: Ngai, L Rachel; Pissarides, Christopher A; Wang, Jin
    Abstract: China’s hukou system imposes two main barriers to population movements. Agricultural workers get land to cultivate but are unable to trade it in a frictionless market. Social transfers (education, health, etc.) are conditional on holding a local hukou. We show that the land policy leads to over-employment in agriculture and it is the more important barrier to industrialization. Effective land tenure guarantees and a competitive rental market would correct this inefficiency. The local restrictions on social transfers also act as disincentives to migration with bigger impact on urban migrations than to job moves to rural enterprises.
    Keywords: Chinese immigration; Chinese land policy; imperfect rental market; mobility barriers; hukou registration; social transfers
    JEL: J61 O18 R23
    Date: 2019–10–01
  14. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Shih, Kevin Y. (Queens College, CUNY); Xu, Huanan (Indiana University)
    Abstract: We examine how the 17 month extension of Optional Practical Training—a program that allows international Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) majors the opportunity to work in the United States for 1-2 years following graduation—affects the quantity and quality of international students. Extension benefits not only include extended work duration, but also an additional attempt at securing more permanent employment through an H-1B visa. We find sizable positive treatment effects on the number of students matriculating into U.S. higher education, and also increases in the quality of students, as captured by the selectivity of institutions they attend.
    Keywords: selectivity, optional practical training, international students, enrollments, United States
    JEL: F22 J61 J68
    Date: 2020–09
  15. By: Mark Trede; Michael Zimmermann
    Abstract: We present stylized facts of the local German labour markets in a systematic way. Using a large German administrative dataset and newly available regional price level data, we study workers' biographies at the local level. Huge regional variation is documented in: unemployment rates and nominal as well as real wages. The distinction between urban and rural areas plays a substantial role. We show that the real wage gap between East and West Germany still persists 30 years after reunification whereas unemployment rates tend to converge. We investigate monthly worker flows across 328 regions (roughly equivalent to NUTS 3 regions or "Landkreise"). Unemployed workers in depressed regions are less likely to move to a new working place in another region than unemployed workers in prosperous regions. The most (and increasingly) mobile group are unemployed workers in dense and active regions. Employed workers are less willing to move and have procyclical fluctuations in their moving rates.
    Keywords: labour mobility; business cycle fluctuations; regional disparities
    JEL: R23 J61 J63 C55
    Date: 2020–09
  16. By: Edo, Anthony (CEPII, Paris); Ragot, Lionel (University Paris Ouest-Nanterre); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Sardoschau, Sulin (Humboldt University Berlin); Steinmayr, Andreas (University of Munich); Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University)
    Abstract: The share of the foreign-born in OECD countries is increasing, and this article summarizes economics research on the effects of immigration in those nations. Four broad topics are addressed: labor market issues, fiscal questions, the political economy of immigration, and productivity/international trade. Extreme concerns about deleterious labour market and fiscal impacts following from new immigrants are not found to be warranted. However, it is also clear that government policies and practices regarding the selection and integration of new migrants affect labour market, fiscal and social/cultural outcomes. Policies that are well informed, well crafted, and well executed beneficially improve population welfare.
    Keywords: immigration, labor market and fiscal effects of immigration, integration, diversity and productivity, trade and migration, political economy of immigration, refugees
    JEL: F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2020–09

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