nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2020‒08‒24
fourteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Big Data for Sampling Design : The Venezuelan Migration Crisis in Ecuador By Munoz,Juan Eduardo; Gallegos Munoz,Jose Victor; Olivieri,Sergio Daniel
  2. Spatial and Social Mobility in England and Wales: Moving Out to Move On? By Buscha, Franz; Gorman, Emma; Sturgis, Patrick
  3. Unequal Opportunities, Social Groups, and Redistribution By Rene Schwaiger; Jürgen Huber; Michael Kirchler; Daniel Kleinlercher; Utz Weitzel
  4. The short- and long-term costs to the United States of the Trump administration's attempt to deport foreign students By Sherman Robinson; Marcus Noland; Egor Gornostay; Soyoung Han
  5. Refugees and the Educational Attainment of Natives By Green, Colin P.; Vaag Iversen, Jon Marius
  6. Impact of Syrian Refugees on Education Outcomes in Jordan By Assaad, Ragui; Ginn, Thomas; Saleh, Mohamed
  7. The role of arrival areas for migrant integration and resource access By Hanhorster, Heike; Wessendorf, Susanne
  8. The domestic economic impacts of immigration By David Roodman
  9. Migration and Trade during the Belle Époque in Argentina (1870-1913) By Giuseppe De Arcangelis; Rama Dasi Mariani; Federico Nastasi
  10. On the foreign to native wage differential in Germany: Does the home country matter? By Brunow, Stephan; Jost, Oskar
  11. Changes in the Forsaken Schooling and Migration Relationship in Tajikistan By Abdulloev, Ilhom
  12. Has immigration contributed to the rise of right-wing extremist parties in Europe? By Anthony Edo; Yvonne Giesing
  13. The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Migration from Large Cities to Rural Areas -Poisson Gravity Model Analysis with Elastic Net Regression- (Japanese) By ARAKAWA Kiyoaki; NOYORI Shuhei
  14. Europe’s ever expanding mobility patterns – posting, third-country nationals and the single European labour market By Dries Lens; Ninke Mussche; Ive Marx

  1. By: Munoz,Juan Eduardo; Gallegos Munoz,Jose Victor; Olivieri,Sergio Daniel
    Abstract: The worsening of Ecuador's socioeconomic conditions and the rapid inflow of Venezuelan migrants demand a rapid government response. Representative information on the migration and host communities is vital for evidence-based policy design. This study presents an innovative methodology based on the use of big data for sampling design of a representative survey of migrants and host communities'populations. This approach tackles the difficulties posed by the lack of information on the total number of Venezuelan migrants?regular and irregular?and their geographical location in the country. The total estimated population represents about 3 percent of the total Ecuadoran population. Venezuelans settled across urban areas, mainly in Quito, Guayaquil, and Manta (Portoviejo). The strategy implemented may be useful in designing similar exercises in countries with limited information (that is, lack of a recent census or migratory registry) and scarce resources for rapidly gathering socioeconomic data on migrants and host communities for policy design.
    Keywords: ICTApplications,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Economics and Finance of Public Institution Development,Democratic Government,State Owned Enterprise Reform,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,De Facto Governments,Telecommunications Infrastructure,Inequality
    Date: 2020–07–22
  2. By: Buscha, Franz (University of Westminster); Gorman, Emma (University of Westminster); Sturgis, Patrick (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Social mobility—the extent to which social and economic position in adulthood is facilitated or constrained by family origins—has taken an increasingly prominent role in public and policy discourse. Recent studies have documented that not only who your parents are, but also where you grow up, influences subsequent life chances. We bring these two concepts together to study trends in social mobility in England and Wales, in three post-war generations, using linked Decennial Census data. We estimate rates of occupational social class mobility by sex and region of origin. Our findings show considerable spatial variation in rates of absolute and relative mobility as well as how these have changed over time. While rates of upward mobility increased in every region between the mid-1950s and the early 1980s, this upward shift varied across different parts of the country, and tailed off for more recent cohorts. We also explore the role of domestic migration in understanding these temporal and spatial patterns, finding that those who stayed in their region of origin had lower rates of upward mobility compared to those who moved out, although this difference also narrowed over time. While policy discussion has focused almost entirely on national-level trends in social mobility, our results emphasise the need to also consider persistent spatial inequalities.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, social mobility, regional economics, spatial mobility
    JEL: J62 J61 J21 I24 I26 R12
    Date: 2020–07
  3. By: Rene Schwaiger; Jürgen Huber; Michael Kirchler; Daniel Kleinlercher; Utz Weitzel
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the role of unequal opportunities and social group membership in preferences for redistribution. We present results from a large-scale online experiment with more than 4,000 participants. The experiment features a real-effort task and a subsequent dictator game with native Germans and immigrants to Germany. We find that dictator transfers are higher under unequal opportunities than under equal opportunities in the real-effort task. Furthermore, different from native dictators, who transfer equal amounts to both groups, immigrant dictators transfer more to in-group than to out-group receivers under unequal opportunities. Finally, we show that political preferences partly explain transfer behavior.
    Keywords: online experiment, redistribution, fairness, migration
    JEL: C91 G11
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Sherman Robinson (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Egor Gornostay (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Soyoung Han (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: On July 6, 2020, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications to the Student and Exchange Visitor Program eliminating temporary exemptions for nonimmigrant students taking all classes online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in the fall 2020 semester. Foreign students violating the rule would be subject to deportation. Under public pressure, the Trump administration rescinded the order on July 14. Had the policy been implemented, more than 1 million foreign students studying in the United States could have been deported. The authors use an economywide simulation model to estimate the economic impact on the United States if the policy had been implemented. They find that the policy would have cost the US economy up to 752,000 jobs and $68 billion in lost GDP in the short run. Their estimates are larger than those reported in other studies because they consider both direct and indirect effects of the policy. In the long run, the move would have reduced the research productivity of American universities and adversely affected research, innovation, and entrepreneurship across the economy, in both the private and public sectors.
    Keywords: immigration, foreign students, research, innovation, entrepreneurship, economic nationalism, multiplier model
    JEL: F22 F52 I2 I21 I23 I28 J61 F52 I2 I21 I23 I28 J61 O31
    Date: 2020–07
  5. By: Green, Colin P. (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)); Vaag Iversen, Jon Marius (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))
    Abstract: There has been a recent rapid increase in immigration into Europe, specifically in the form of refugees and asylum seekers. This raises a range of social challenges and a particular focus is education and school systems. A growing body of research investigates the impact of immigrants on native test score performance. In practice this reports very mixed results and a difficulty is that immigrant groups are often pooled together due to data restrictions. We return to this issue using Norwegian register data that allows us to distinguish refugees from other immigrants. Using narrow within-school, within-family comparisons combined with the Norwegian refugee settlement system we demonstrate marked negative effects of refugee children on the test score performance of their native school children classmates. These effects are simply not present for other immigrants, and stem primarily from refugee children who themselves are most at risk of low performance. These negative effects are concentrated on students at most risk of underperformance, boys and children from lower educated backgrounds, and may reflect a lack of compensatory inputs at schools.
    Keywords: refugees, educational attainment
    JEL: J15 I21
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: Assaad, Ragui; Ginn, Thomas; Saleh, Mohamed
    Abstract: Mass influxes of refugees have potentially large effects on host countries; while labor market impacts are frequently studied, outcomes like children's education could also be affected. This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on the educational attainment of Jordanians. Combining detailed household surveys with school-level records on the density of Syrians, we study both quantity and quality of education for the hosts using a differences-in-differences design across refugee prevalence and birth cohort. We find no evidence that greater exposure to Syrian refugees affected the attainment of Jordanians; adding a second, donor-funded shift in high-Syrian areas appears sufficient to mitigate potential over-crowding.
    Keywords: education; Impact of Refugees; Jordan; Middle East
    JEL: F22 I21 N35 O15
    Date: 2019–10
  7. By: Hanhorster, Heike; Wessendorf, Susanne
    Abstract: Research on socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods with high numbers of migrants tends to problematise such areas as hindering upward social mobility and further enhancing disadvantage. However, an emerging body of research on arrival areas is highlighting how such areas can provide newcomers with specific arrival resources, helping them to come to grips with their new circumstances. This article provides a conceptual overview and discussion of this newly emerging body of literature on urban arrival areas in the Global North. It argues that arrival areas offer infrastructures which can provide important support for newcomers, ranging from overcoming day-to-day problems to potentially enabling social mobility. In many cases, previous migrants act as knowledge brokers facilitating newcomers’ access to resources. The article shows how different forms of arrival-specific knowledge can be found in these areas, facilitating the exchange of resources across different migrant groups and across localities. However, arrival-specific infrastructures can be both enabling and disabling with regard to social mobility, as they often emerge in contexts of underlying disadvantage and discrimination where access to resources such as housing and jobs can be highly contentious. The article argues that understanding the dynamics of urban arrival areas and infrastructures and their specific role in providing resources for newcomers can contribute to our knowledge on integration and help us rethink the role of policymaking and urban planning in increasingly complex and mobile urban societies.
    Keywords: Arrival areas; Arrival infrastructures; Diversity; Integration; Migration
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–05–12
  8. By: David Roodman
    Abstract: This paper critically reviews the research on the impact of immigration on employment and wages of natives in wealthy countries--where "natives" includes previous immigrants and their descendants. While written for a non-technical audience, the paper engages with technical issues and probes one particularly intense scholarly debate in an appendix. While the available evidence is not definitive, it paints a consistent picture. Industrial economies can generally absorb migrants quickly, in part because capital is mobile and flexible, in part because immigrants are consumers as well as producers. Thus, long-term average impacts are probably zero at worst. And the long-term may come quickly, especially if migration inflows are predictable to investors. Possibly, skilled immigration boosts productivity and wages for many others. Around the averages, there are distributional effects. Among low-income "native" workers, the ones who stand to lose the most are those who most closely resemble new arrivals, in being immigrants themselves, being low-skill, being less assimilated, and, potentially, undocumented. But native workers and earlier immigrants tend to benefit from the arrival of workers different from them, who complement more than compete with them in production. Thus skilled immigration can offset the effects of low-skill immigration on natives and earlier immigrants.
    Date: 2020–07
  9. By: Giuseppe De Arcangelis (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Rama Dasi Mariani (CEIS, University of Rome Tor Vergata; Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Federico Nastasi (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rom)
    Abstract: Between 1870 to 1914 the Argentine economy performed spectacularly with a yearly average real growth rate of 5.94 per cent. Increased resource endowment in both land and labor, via migration, and openness to trade have been considered the two main drivers of this success. In this paper we underline the central role of Argentine immigration in contributing not only to increase resource endowments, but also to lower trade costs boosting exports and imports. By considering Argentine bilateral trade and migration from eight European countries (Austro-Hungarian Empire, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and United Kingdom) we use a migration-augmented gravity model to estimate the contribution of the massive inflows of Europeans. In particular, we find that the main pro-trade effect was on imports: an increase of 10 per cent of migrants from one country could increase imports up to 8 per cent from the same trade partner. To overcome the typical endogeneity problem our study proposes migration to the US from the same countries as a instruments that could capture the same push (but not Argentine pull) factors triggering European out-migration.
    Keywords: Gravity Model, Migration and Imports, China-shock based Instrumental Variable
    JEL: F22 N76
    Date: 2020–06
  10. By: Brunow, Stephan; Jost, Oskar (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "The German labour force is expected to shrink in the next two decades due to a decline in population. Therefore, the immigration of workers from abroad could compensate potential negative effects of such decline. Is Germany competitive for immigration – i. e., do German employers pay enough to make it attractive as a destination country? We explore the wage gap between foreigners and German employees in particular and focus on different countries of origin to better understand issues related to wage setting among these groups. For this purpose, a threefold Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is performed using a comprehensive data with a vast amount of information on a large number of workers and firms. The results suggest that most of the wage gap can be explained by observed characteristics, and in most cases, very little difference remains unexplained. We provide evidence on differences specific to the country of origin which could be taken in into consideration to attract people from abroad to better integrate them into the German labour market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
  11. By: Abdulloev, Ilhom (Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation, Tajikistan)
    Abstract: We examine how the forsaken schooling phenomenon in migration evolved over time in Tajikistan. After completing compulsory schooling at ages 16-17, young men in Tajikistan are forsaking professional education because of opportunities to migrate for higher paid low-skilled jobs in the Russian Federation. We study how the forsaken schooling effect changed because of migrant-receiving Russia's recent tightened migration policy and economic slowdown, and policies promoting fair access to professional education in migrant-sending Tajikistan.
    Keywords: migration, traps, education, skill
    JEL: O15 P46 F22 I24
    Date: 2020–07
  12. By: Anthony Edo; Yvonne Giesing
    Abstract: Alongside a range of already well documented factors such as deindustrialization, technological progress and international trade, a series of recent empirical econometric studies show that immigration has contributed to the rise of extreme right-wing parties in Europe. Our study highlights, however, that there is no mechanical link between the rise of immigration and that of extreme right-wing parties. Exploiting French presidential elections from 1988 to 2017, we show that the positive impact of immigration on votes for extreme right-wing parties is driven by low-skilled immigration and immigration from non-European countries. Our results moreover show that high-skilled immigration from non-European countries has a negative impact on extreme right-wing parties. These findings suggest that the degree of economic and social integration of immigrants plays an important role in the formation of anti-immigrant sentiment. Fostering integration should therefore reduce negative attitudes toward immigrants and preserve national cohesion at a time when the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic could reinforce mistrust and xenophobia.
    Keywords: Voting;Immigration;Political Economy
    JEL: D72 F22 J15 P16
    Date: 2020–07
  13. By: ARAKAWA Kiyoaki; NOYORI Shuhei
    Abstract: We analyzed migration from large cities to rural areas in Japan. The purpose of this study is to solve the problem of multicollinearity, which has been a problem when using regression models such as gravity models, and to analyze as many socioeconomic variables of cities as possible. This study showed the following two points. First, by using the elastic net regression for the analysis with the gravity model, it is possible to select significant variables while simultaneously dealing with strongly correlated variables. Furthermore, the basic variables of the gravity model, which were population size and interregional distance, were also selected, and the absolute values of the regression coefficients were larger than the other variables. Second, when all 39 explanatory variables used in previous studies were submitted to the elastic net regression, 21 variables were selected as being associated with the migration. Further analyses using more variables, including panel data analysis, are needed to clarify the factors that influence migration from large cities to rural areas.
    Date: 2020–06
  14. By: Dries Lens; Ninke Mussche; Ive Marx
    Abstract: This article shows that the single European labour market has come to consist of various streams of mobility, out of which long-term mobility is just one modest stream. Long-term mobility based on the free movement of workers is increasingly complemented by highly circular and more temporary mobility streams of posted workers based on the free movement of services. Another rapidly growing mobility stream consists of third-country nationals (TCNs) who are mobile within Europe as posted workers. This stream is based on case-law of the European Court of Justice, that allows TCNs with a valid work and residence permit in one Member State, to be posted freely across the EU. This article is a call to re-assess EU labour mobility as the diverse phenomenon it has become, encompassing not only mobility streams that were initially or historically part of the labour mobility vision of EU policy makers, but also labour streams that are (even) more short term and circular. One main conclusion is that a true single European labour market should be much more integrated administratively
    Date: 2019–07

This nep-mig issue is ©2020 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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