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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Costas Arkolakis (Yale University); Michael Peters (Yale University); Sun Kyoung Lee (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | What is the role of immigrants on (American) Growth? To answer this perplex question, we undertake a massive effort of collecting, digitizing, and harmonizing micro and macro economic data from the 19th and early 20th century. The data originate from the historical manufacturing and demographic census of the United States, immigration records datasets and the universe of US patents. To analyze the counterfactual implications of alternative allocations of immigrants, we develop a dynamical trade model where heterogenous firms make innovation and exporting decisions across space and time. The model predicts that the timing and the spatial allocation of immigrant arrivals affect the path of growth outcomes for each location and the aggregate US economy. We use the structural equations arising from the model to interpret empirical findings from the difference-in-difference analysis for the importance of the influx of skilled immigrants on the differential growth of US counties. Counterfactual scenarios of alternative allocation of skilled immigrants from different countries across space and time reveal the economic impact of barriers to migration to the United States economy. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1420&r=all |
| By: | Michal Burzynski (LISER, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (Luxembourg)); Christoph Deuster (IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium), and Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal)); Frederic Docquier (LISER (Luxembourg), FNRS and IRES, UCLouvain (Belgium), and FERDI (France)); Jaime de Melo (Universite de Geneve (Switzerland), CEPR (United Kingdom) and FERDI (France)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to highlatitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20 % of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Migration, Inequality, Urbanization, Conflicts |
| JEL: | E24 F22 J24 J61 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2019014&r=all |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the rapid increase in the low-skilled labor supply induced by the inflow of 2.5 million Syrian refugees changed the tasks performed by native workers and the capital intensity of firms in Turkey. We use both survey and administrative data to estimate the effects. The results based on the Labor Force Survey suggest that the inflow of refugees increased natives’ task complexity, reducing the intensity of manual tasks, and raising the intensity of abstract tasks. This effect is driven by highly educated and young natives. Exploiting the administrative firm data that contains the entirety of firms in the country, we find that manufacturing firms reduced their capital intensity and investments. Reduction in capital intensity and investment is largely driven by smaller sized firms. We conclude that tasks provided by Syrian refugees are substitutes for manual tasks and capital inputs in production, and complements to more complex tasks. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Refugees, Labor-capital substitution, Skills, Tasks |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J21 D24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1923&r=all |
| By: | Özge Bilgili (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This research paper has the objective of providing a comprehensive overview of Dutch education policy approaches to the integration of children with a migration background, with a particular focus on those who have recently arrived in the country. After mapping the current population characteristics of children with a migration background and their educational performance and socio-emotional well-being, the research paper summarises the Dutch education system and the opportunities it provides for newcomer children. The remainder of the paper focuses on three key policy issues that are crucial for promoting the academic and social resilience of children with a migration background: promoting social cohesion and multiculturalism in schools, capacity building in the education system and language acquisition for newcomers. The paper concludes with pointers for the short and long-term policy debates to enhance the successful integration of students with a migration background in the education system as well as the wider society. |
| Date: | 2019–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:206-en&r=all |
| By: | Qi, Haodong (Malmö University); Irastorza, Nahikari (Malmö University); Emilsson, Henrik (Malmö University); Bevelander, Pieter (Malmö University) |
| Abstract: | Sweden, like many other European countries, has seen a surge in refugee immigrants over recent years, which raises a concern about the labour market integration of these newcomers. This paper investigates whether integration policy may improve refugees' labour market performance. Specifically, we examine the employment effects of the 2010 reform of the introduction program (known as IP), and how the effects vary depending on refugees' educational attainment. Given that the eligibility for the new IP was exogenously determined by whether the refugee status was granted before or after December 1, 2010, we identify the employment effects by comparing those who participated in the new IP (treatment group), with those who participated in the old IP (control group). Using a triple difference method, we find positive employment effects of the new IP that exacerbate over time. The effects are significant and identical for male refugees, regardless of educational attainment; in contrast, the effects of program participation for refugee women vary by education level, and are greater for high-educated women than that for the low-educated counterparts. |
| Keywords: | labour market policy, employment, refugees |
| JEL: | J62 J68 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12594&r=all |
| By: | Marcel Erlinghagen; Christoph Kern; Petra Stein |
| Abstract: | Using German panel data and relying on internal relocation, this paper investigates the anticipation and adaptation of subjective well-being (SWB) in the course of migration. We hypothesize that SWB correlates with the process of migration, and that such correlations are at least partly socially stratified. Our fixed-effects regressions show no evidence of any anticipation of SWB before the event of migration, but a highly significant and sustained positive adaptation effect. In general, internal migration seems to lead to a long-lasting increase in SWB. This is found to be the case for almost all analyzed socioeconomic and socio-demographic subgroups. The migration distance, the reasons for migration, and the individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics do not appear to have any important effects on the overall observed pattern. Our results suggest that regional mobility is less a response to certain stressors, but is, rather, a response to an opportunity to improve job- or housing-related living conditions, and that these improved conditions are reflected in individuals’ SWB. Thus, migration under these circumstances is triggered by opportunities rather than by constraints. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being, migration, relocation, life course, adaptation, anticipation |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1046&r=all |
| By: | Anupam Nanda; Sarah Jewel; Olayiwola Oladiran |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom is one of the major destination of immigrants and approximately 50% of the UK immigrant population reside in London. This immigrant concentration has been linked to the city’s political, economic and administrative relevance globally and to the UK in particular. This paper presents empirical evidence that migration policy may also play a significant role in the locational choices and residential pattern of UK immigrants. A conceptual link is developed on the premise that migration policy plays a key role in creating and sustaining migration waves and by extension, the socio-economic, socio-cultural and demographic composition of immigrants which are also key factors in individuals’ locational choices and residential patterns. Using rigorous quasi-experimental techniques namely Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and Difference-in-Difference (D-in-D) style approaches, this research examines the impact of the 2004 accession of 10 new countries to the EU (EU A10) and the Immigration Act of 1971 on the concentration of immigrants in London as well as the general residential pattern of UK immigrants. The results reveal that EU A10 immigrants that immigrated to the UK after the 2004 migration liberalisation (post-EU A10 immigrants) have a 20% lower likelihood of residing in London and are more spread out to other regions, compared to the pre-EU A10 immigrants who have a higher concentration in London. The results also reveal that Commonwealth immigrants that immigrated after the introduction of new immigration restrictions in 1972 have a 10% higher likelihood of residing in London compared to Commonwealth immigrants that immigrated before 1972. These results provide new insight on the potential link between migration policy, locational choices and residential patterns of immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Demography; housing; Migration policy; Tenure; Windrush |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_257&r=all |
| By: | Stark, Oded (University of Bonn); Byra, Lukasz (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a model in which utility is derived from consumption and effort (labor supply), we ask how the deportation of a number of undocumented migrants influences the decisions regarding labor supply, consumption, and savings of the remaining undocumented migrants. We assume that the intensity of deportation serves as an indicator to the remaining undocumented migrants when they assess the probability of being deported. We find that a higher rate of deportation induces undocumented migrants to work harder, consume less and, as a result of those responses, to save more. Assuming that the purpose of deportation policy is to reduce the aggregate labor supply of undocumented migrants in order to raise the wages of low-skilled native workers, we conclude that the policy can backfire: an increase in the labor supply of the remaining undocumented migrants can more than offset the reduction in the labor supply arising from the deportation of some undocumented migrants. Simulation shows that if the number of deportations in relation to the size of the undocumented migrant workforce is small, then the combined effect of the reduction in the labor supply of the deportees and the increase in the labor supply of the remaining undocumented migrants can be that the aggregate labor supply of undocumented migrants will increase. It follows that an effective deportation policy has to involve the expulsion of a substantial proportion of the total number of undocumented migrants in the workforce. |
| Keywords: | consumption of undocumented migrants, labor supply of undocumented migrants, savings of undocumented migrants, aggregate labor supply of undocumented migrants, efficacy of a deportation policy of a number of undocumented migrants |
| JEL: | D81 E21 F22 J61 J78 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12583&r=all |