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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Antoine Berthou (Banque de France); Sophie Haincourt (Banque de France); Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve (Banque de France); Ángel Estrada (Banco de España); Moritz A. Roth (Banco de España); Alexander Kadow (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | This joint work by the Bundesbank, the Banque de France and the Banco de España highlights some of the numerous channels through which Brexit will affect the UK economy and its economic partners. In particular, it focuses on trade and migration channels, adding a more general assessment of exiting the EU through the use of a gravity model. The trade cannel alone may cut UK GDP by 2% over the medium term if the UK reverts to WTO rules, while a more general gravity model would point to UK GDP falling by almost 6% compared to baseline. According to our analysis, the ‘cost of non-Europe’ (such as originally stated by Cecchini’s seminal work in 1988) lies therefore between 2% and 6% in terms of real GDP losses for the UK. With the shock being largely asymmetric, the EA remains relatively unscathed by the UK’s exit, with GDP less than 1% lower than baseline by 2023. The study also shows that results are sensitive to the envisaged policy response. In general, monetary and fiscal policies may act to cushion a Brexit-related shock; however, the potency of the policy response depends on the underlying source of the shock. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, NiGEM, trade, tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, migration, scenario analysis |
| JEL: | F15 F42 F53 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:1911&r=all |
| By: | Rodolfo Campos (Banco de España); Jacopo Timini (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a gravity model approach to estimate the effects of Brexit in two dimensions: trade in goods and migration. We simulate two scenarios: 1) no agreement with reversión to WTO rules and no special treatment for migrants; 2) signature of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). According to our results, Brexit may have large negative effects on trade and migration flows between the EU and the UK. In the WTO scenario, trade flows are predicted to drop by 30% and migration by close to 25%. If the UK and the EU sign an FTA-like agreement (which does not include free mobility of labour), the negative effects on trade are lessened although there is no significant difference in terms of migration with respect to the WTO scenario. |
| Keywords: | international trade, migration, Brexit, gravity models, United Kingdom, European Union |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F17 F22 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:1912&r=all |
| By: | Randall Akee; Maggie R. Jones |
| Abstract: | Using a novel panel data set of recent immigrants to the U.S., we identify return migration rates and earnings trajectories of two immigrant groups: those with foreign graduate degrees and those with a U.S. graduate degree. We focus on immigrants (of both genders) to the U.S. who arrive in the same entry cohort and from the same country of birth over the period 2005-2015. In Census-IRS administrative data, we ?nd that downward earnings trajectories are predictive of return migration for immigrants with degrees acquired abroad. Meanwhile, immigrants with U.S.-acquired graduate degrees experience mainly upward earnings mobility. |
| Keywords: | Post-Secondary Education, Immigration, Human Capital, Wage Growth, Panel Data. |
| JEL: | J31 F22 J61 J15 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:19-17&r=all |
| By: | Lisa Bagnoli; Antonio Estache |
| Abstract: | The paper synthetizes the academic research on mentoring and discusses its relevance for the design of labor market integration policies for migrants. The review covers several research fields, including education, management, organizational theory, psychology and economics. From each field, we discuss the outcomes that are potentially relevant to the design of mentoring as an instrument of job search assistance. We also review these results in terms of their contribution to the identification of outcome and control variables that should be accounted for in the evaluations of mentoring programs. In doing so, the paper shows that both specific features of the programs as well as the general context, including human, institutional, financing and political constraints, are relevant in limiting or enabling the effectiveness of mentoring as part of the overall design of migration policies. |
| Keywords: | mentoring labor, labor market, intergration of migrants policy |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/288197&r=all |
| By: | Jakub Bielawski; Marcin Jakubek |
| Abstract: | We study the migrants' assimilation, which we conceptualize as forming human capital productive on the labor market of a developed host country, and we link the observed frequent lack of assimilation with the relative deprivation that the migrants start to feel when they move in social space towards the natives. In turn, we presume that the native population is heterogenous and consists of high-skill and low-skill workers. The presence of assimilated migrants might shape the comparison group of the natives, influencing the relative deprivation of the low-skill workers and, in consequence, the choice to form human capital and become highly skilled. To analyse this interrelation between assimilation choices of migrants and skill formation of natives, we construct a coevolutionary model of the open-to-migration economy. Showing that the economy might end up in a non-assimilation equilibrium, we discuss welfare consequences of an assimilation policy funded from tax levied on the native population. We identify conditions under which such costly policy can bring the migrants to assimilation and at the same time increase the welfare of the natives, even though the incomes of the former take a beating. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1906.02657&r=all |
| By: | Nina Boberg-Fazlić (University of Southern Denmark); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing literature on the impact of immigration, little is known about the role existing migrant settlements can play for knowledge transmission. We present a case which can illustrate this important mechanism and hypothesize that nineteenth century Danish-American communities helped spread knowledge on modern dairying to rural America. From around 1880, Denmark developed rapidly and by 1890 it was a world-leading dairy producer. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, and data taken from the US census and Danish emigration archives, we find that counties with more Danes in 1880 subsequently both specialized in dairying and used more modern practices. |
| Keywords: | Dairying, immigration, knowledge spillovers, technology |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N11 N31 N51 O33 Q16 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0155&r=all |
| By: | Michele Tuccio |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new set of indicators aimed at benchmarking how OECD countries fare in attracting talented migrants. Three different profiles of talent are considered: workers with graduate (master or doctorate) degrees, entrepreneurs, and university students. After providing a definition of the notion of talent attractiveness, this paper develops a conceptual framework for the study of the phenomenon, and discusses the variables used to construct the composite indicators. Sensitivity analysis is performed in order to make sure the indicators are robust to several statistical checks. Finally, the paper documents the attractiveness of OECD countries to the different profiles of talented migrants. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurs, High-skilled Workers, Immigrants, Students, Talent |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:229-en&r=all |
| By: | Edita A. Tan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper briefly surveys recent migration policies in major destinations of Filipino migrants and tries to see their effect on migration flows in the past two decades. Most Western OECD economies have heightened their restrictive immigration programs that covered not only those relating to workers but also those for family unification. Their admission for employment is restricted to the highly skilled/highly educated labor. Despite the tightening of policy, emigration to Western OECD increased in the past three decades. Emigration to the US has been declining but emigration to other countries, though relatively small, rose. Saudi Arabia, the largest employer of foreign workers in the Gulf adopted the Nitaqat policy of imposing higher national to foreign labor ratio in the private sector. This may explain the drop in the flow of labor to the GCC in 2015 and 2016. The drop could be a temporary fluctuation as the state could not easily develop sufficient number of skilled and disciplined citizens to replace foreign labor. The GCC states’ heavy dependence on foreign labor is expected to continue. The skill composition of foreign workers may change depending on their future economic and social development. |
| Keywords: | migration; Philippines |
| JEL: | J08 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201902&r=all |
| By: | Bohn, Henning; Lopez-Velasco, Armando R |
| Abstract: | First generation immigrants to the United States have higher fertility rates than natives. This paper analyzes to what extent this factor provides political support for immigration, using an overlapping generation model with production and capital accumulation. In this setting, immigration represents a dynamic trade-off for native workers as more immigrants decrease current wages but increase the future return on their savings. We find that immigrant fertility has surprisingly strong effects on voter incentives, especially when there is persistence in the political process. If fertility rates are sufficiently high, native workers support immigration. Persistence, either due to inertia induced by frictions in the legal system or through expectational linkages, significantly magnifies the effects. Entry of immigrants with high fertility has redistributive impacts across generations similar to pay-as-you-go social security: initial generations are net winners, whereas later generations are net losers. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Political Economy Model, Overlapping Generations, Immigrant Fertility Rates, Intergenerational Redistribution, Economic Theory, Economics |
| Date: | 2019–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsbrw:qt9dk2h7cv&r=all |
| By: | Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | By 2030, labour demand could be equal to labour supply in most of the EU, creating significant challenges for policy-makers and firms. The ‘tipping point’ at which labour demand will become equal to labour supply in the EU – that is, when labour will become a constraint on economic growth – is now imminent. If current trends continue, most EU countries will hit this ‘tipping point’ during the next decade, many by 2025. Vacancy rates and surveys of employers find that firms in some sectors are already facing severe labour constraints on production. Most of CEE will be hit first, not least because they are still losing so many workers to Western Europe. For Western Europe, however, the situation will also become difficult soon, especially for Germany. This is an enormous challenge for policy-makers, and will become even more so in the future. Policy options to counter demographic trends can be split into four main areas higher productivity, immigration, activity rates, or fertility. However, none is a silver bullet. Even if all of these policies are pursued successfully and in combination, they are unlikely to fundamentally alter the picture. The implications of this demographic decline do not have to be all negative. Combined with intelligent upgrading of infrastructure and investment in productivity-enhancing improvements in industry, there is no reason that these population trends cannot go hand-in-hand with increases in per capita GDP and living standards. Much can be learned from Japan in this regard. The politics of the future in the EU is likely to be defined by generational questions, and potentially inter-generational conflict. Policy discussions are likely to centre ever more on immigration, how to fund old-age and child care, how to extend working lives, automation, and the problematic issue of financial incentives to increase fertility rates. |
| Keywords: | demographics, migration, emigration, immigration, automation |
| JEL: | F22 J01 J08 J11 J21 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:30&r=all |
| By: | : Andrew Minster; Danielle Kavanagh-Smith; Lara-Zuzan Golesorkhi (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper recognizes additional complicating factors, like social policy and employers' power to shape job prospects, to more accurately characterize the relationship between the labor market and migration. The authors discuss the need to improve the status of unions, create state-funded jobs guarantees, and reform retirement policy to support all workers in the face of growing employer influence. |
| Keywords: | immigration, job markets, undocumented, compensation, immigration economics, labor |
| JEL: | J6 J3 J5 J7 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepawp:2018-01&r=all |
| By: | Cattaneo, Andrea; Robinson, Sherman |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds new light on internal migration processes by estimating migration flows for 31 countries, focusing on step migration and on return migration back to rural areas from urban areas. The approach is to estimate the shares of the population (by gender) that move or stay in rural and urban areas over three periods (childhood and two forward periods). Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the estimation was done with an information-theoretic procedure using maximum-entropy econometrics to estimate migration frequencies by population groups. Sizeable urban to rural migration flows are found, with rural returnees often contributing substantially to urban-to-rural flows. This phenomenon is more pronounced in countries in relatively early phases of development, and among male migrants. The analysis also confirms anecdotal evidence that migrants move in several steps and that internal migration patterns vary considerably according to gender; however, in countries that are further along the path of structural transformation, and particularly urbanization, the magnitude of migration flows appears to be similar across genders. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2019–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoaes:288948&r=all |
| By: | Bernard Poirine (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française); Vincent Dropsy (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model in which remittances stem from a decision made jointly by a family coalition of multiple migrants and non-migrants, allowing two alternative interpretations: migrants' altruism or bargaining power. The model predicts that aggregate remittances first increase, reach a maximum, and then decrease as the emigration ratio (migrants/non-migrants) increases. An alternative model of loan repayment arrangement between each migrant and her parents, predicts that aggregate remittances grow monotonously with the emigration ratio. Testing both predictions on a macroeconomic bilateral dataset we find evidence in favour of the first model and an inverted-U relationship between aggregate remittances and the emigration ratio, with a maximum reached at a value of 0.5. Since many small "MIRAB" island nations are close to or even above this threshold value, this finding is of highly relevant for them since they may experience declining aggregate remittances as the diaspora grows further. |
| Keywords: | International migration,Remittances,Diaspora,Gravity model |
| Date: | 2018–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02133273&r=all |
| By: | Tamim Bayoumi; Jelle Barkema |
| Abstract: | Using bilateral data on migration across US metro areas, we find strong evidence that increasing house price and income inequality has reduced long distance migration, the type most linked to jobs. For those migrating uphill, from a less to a more prosperous location, lower mobility is driven by increasing house price inequlity, as the disincentives from higher house prices dominate the incentives from higher earnings. By contrast, increasing income inequality drives the fall in downhill migration as the disincentives from lower earnings dominate the incentives from lower house prices. The model underlines the plight of those trapped in decaying metro areas—those “left behind”. |
| Date: | 2019–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/122&r=all |