nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2019‒04‒22
fifteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Unemployment and Violent Extremism: Evidence from Daesh Foreign Recruits By Mohamed Abdel Jelil; Kartika Bhatia; Anne Brockmeyer; Quy-Toan Do; Cl´ement Joubert
  2. Labor mobility in a monetary union By Hauser, Daniela; Seneca, Martin
  3. Moving ideas across borders: Migrant inventors, patents and FDI By Ana Cuadros; Jordi Paniagua; Antonio Navas
  4. Labor Market Activities of Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Aysegul Kayaoglu; Murat Erdogan
  5. The Number and Characteristics of Syrians in Jordan: A Multi-Source Analysis By Caroline Krafft; Susan Razzaz; Caitlyn Keo; Ragui Assaad
  6. Refugees and their Allies as Agents of Progress: Knowledge, Power and Action in Forbidden and Dangerous Boundary Regions By Crawford, Beverly
  7. Refugees and 'Native Flight' from Public to Private Schools By Tumen, Semih
  8. Should I stay or should I go? Migration and job-skills mismatch among Italian doctoral recipients By Alfano, Vincenzo; D'Uva, Marcella; De Simone, Elina; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio
  9. A THIRD WAVE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDENT MOBILITY: Global Competitiveness and American Higher Education By Choudaha, Rahul
  10. Easy Come, Easy Go? Economic Shocks, Labor Migration and the Family Left Behind By André Gröger
  11. Brain Drain and Brain Gain in Italy and Ireland in the Age of Mass Migration By Matteo Gomellini; Cormac Ó Gráda
  12. Internal migration and inclusive development: Insights from the field By Ray, Jhilam; Naaz, Farhat; Khasnobis, Poulomi; Majumder, Rajarshi
  13. Labour mobility and interprovincial trade in Canada By Aziz, Nusrate; Mahar, Gerry
  14. Opening the Floodgates: Industry and Occupation Adjustments to Labor Immigration By Bratsberg, Bernt; Moxnes, Andreas; Raaum, Oddbjørn; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene
  15. Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications By Henrik Kleven; Camille Landais; Mathilde Muñoz; Stefanie Stantcheva

  1. By: Mohamed Abdel Jelil (World Bank); Kartika Bhatia; Anne Brockmeyer; Quy-Toan Do; Cl´ement Joubert
    Abstract: Transnational terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State (also known as Daesh) have shown an ability to attract radicalized individuals from many countries to join their ranks, and perpetrate attacks around the world. Using a novel data set that reports countries of residence and educational levels of a large sample of Daesh’s foreign recruits, we find that a lack of economic opportunities – measured by unemployment rates disaggregated by country and education level – explains foreign enrollment in the terrorist organization, especially for countries that are geographically closer to Syria.
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Hauser, Daniela (Bank of Canada); Seneca, Martin (Bank of England)
    Abstract: We study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions sharing trade links and a common monetary framework. In our New Keynesian DSGE model with search and matching frictions, migration flows are driven by fluctuations in the relative labor market performance across the monetary union. The optimizing monetary policymaker shows greater flexibility in inflation targeting when labor is mobile by leaning somewhat against deviations of migration flows from efficient benchmarks. But strict inflation targeting remains close to optimal. For a given monetary policy, labor mobility facilitates macroeconomic adjustments by reducing efficiency gaps in regional labor markets. Internal migration therefore reduces the welfare costs of following simple suboptimal monetary policy rules in a monetary union.
    Keywords: Labor mobility; monetary policy; monetary union; business cycles
    JEL: E32 E52
    Date: 2019–04–12
  3. By: Ana Cuadros (Jaume I University (Spain).); Jordi Paniagua (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).); Antonio Navas (University of Sheffield (United Kingdom).)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to gain insights into the exact mechanisms through which migration enhances the innovative performance of multinational firms and fosters Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We develop a formal model showing that migrants may help firms to increase the perceived quality of their products at the host country of investment. This can be done by patent an invention that permits the customization of products in order to meet foreign quality standards. We focus on a very specific type of migrants: Those who cross borders and patent an invention (migrant inventors). The structural estimation of our model using high-dimensional PPML 2SLS confirms our theoretical priors at both the intensive and the extensive margins. A placebo test reveals that non-inventor migrants are not a good instrument to capture the effect of patents on FDI. Additionally, a structural PPML gravity estimation shows that both patents and migrants inventors fosters Greenfield FDI, with a larger impact on the intensive margin. Our estimations also reveal certain sectoral heterogeneity.
    Keywords: migrant inventors; patents; FDI; foreign Direct Investment; migration
    JEL: F20 F21 F23
    Date: 2019–04
  4. By: Aysegul Kayaoglu (Istanbul Technical University); Murat Erdogan
    Abstract: Drawing on data from a survey of 1,235 Syrian refugees, this article examines individual, cohort and province-level factors associated with both their labor market activities (employment, unemployment and inactivity) and occupation statuses in the Turkish labor market. In the sample, only 38.6% of Syrians are employed and 50.4% of those who are working are either in irregular, seasonal jobs or work as an unpaid family worker. We find that those who are younger, men, having a diploma higher than secondary school and those who had higher income levels before migration and have better Turkish language proficiency, on average, have higher likelihood of being employed. Moreover, self-settlement is found to decrease the probability of being unemployed and increase the chance of being out of the labor market at the same time, compared to refugees living in temporary protection camps. Women at all ages are found to have higher probability of being inactive compared to men in the same age groups. For example, at age 30, women have 50 percentage point higher probability of being inactive when other control variables are held constant at their averages. Moreover, refugees who are women, having a higher-level of education and Turkish language proficiency are found to have higher likelihood of being employed as a regular worker. We also observe that there are some cohort and province specific factors that affect both labor market activity and job status. We see that later cohorts and those living in Bursa are more advantageous. Among the border provinces, Gaziantep is found to have better prospects for the employment of refugees in regular jobs.
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); Susan Razzaz; Caitlyn Keo; Ragui Assaad
    Abstract: Jordan has experienced a substantial influx of refugees from Syria since 2011. The Jordanian government and the international community have expended significant resources to address the urgent humanitarian needs of these refugees and to mitigate negative impacts on the Jordanian population. Although several data sources describe the number and characteristics of Syrians in Jordan, a systematic comparison of the similarities and differences among the data sources has not been made. We seek to fill this gap using several data sources: the Jordan Population Census of 2015, the UNHCR registration database as of 2016, the Ministry of Education Management Information System of 2016/2017, and the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey of 2016. We examine the number of Syrians in Jordan and their characteristics, including registration status, geographic and age distribution, and children’s enrollment status.
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Crawford, Beverly
    Abstract: Focusing on the historical and contemporary dilemmas posed by the “refugee crisis,†this essay investigates the potential for international progress in acknowledging our common humanity. I examine the utility of Emanuel Adler’s theory of cognitive evolution as a lens through which to assess the extent of that potential. I employ the theory to explore how certain practices dealing with forced migration became prevalent, while others lay dormant. I also examine how competing communities of practice battle to shape our understanding of forced migration in the current “post-truth†environment. I argue that cognitive evolution offers a potent conceptual framework for understanding both the extent to which the suffering of migrants has and has not been alleviated—a powerful indicator of the degree to which the world community has acknowledge their humanity. This holds for the social order of refugee protection, even in the current period as tribalism threatens to erode epistemological security, as normlessness threatens to replace a competition among norms, and as these threats weaken our shared reality.Â
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Refugee Crisis, UNHCR. League of Nations, post-truth, forced migration
    Date: 2018–09–21
  7. By: Tumen, Semih (TED University)
    Abstract: Native children switch from public to private primary schools in response to increased refugee concentration in the Turkish public education system. 10 percentage-point increase in refugee-to-population ratio generates, on average, 0.16 percentage-point increase in private primary school enrollment. This roughly corresponds to 1 native child switching to private education for every 31.6 refugee children enrolled in public schools — weaker than the typical estimates in the literature.
    Keywords: public vs private primary education, school choice, immigration, refugees
    JEL: I21 I24 H52
    Date: 2019–03
  8. By: Alfano, Vincenzo; D'Uva, Marcella; De Simone, Elina; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio
    Abstract: Finding a non-academic job in line with both doctoral graduates’ degree and acquired know-how can be difficult because of insufficient demand for R&D skills in public administration and private enterprise and/or because of the lack of matching between the existing demand and the Ph.D. holders’ specialization. The aim of this paper is to test whether migrating from some regions may improve job-education matching in Italy. The econometric strategy takes into account Ph.D. holders’ selfselection into non-academic employment as well as the endogeneity of the migration choice. Results demonstrate that migration seems to facilitate the possibility of finding better job opportunities. More specifically, only migration within the regions of the centre and north of Italy seems to improve jobeducation matching.
    Keywords: Ph.D. holders,job-education mismatch,migration
    JEL: J61 J24
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Choudaha, Rahul
    Abstract: International students are critical to the competitiveness of American higher education in terms of financial, intercultural, and educational contributions. However, recent data indicates that the U.S institutions enrolled 31,520 fewer international students in Fall 2017 as compared to Fall 2016. At average tuition and fees of US$ 25,000, higher education institutions are likely to lose potential revenue of US$ 788 million for the first year of studies alone. This paper examines the shifting landscape of international enrollment from the lens of three overlapping Waves spread over seven years and takes a deeper dive into implications for American universities. Wave I was shaped by the terrorist attacks in September 2001 and resulted in slower overall growth in international student enrollment of 11% between 1999 and 2006. Wave II has its origins in the global financial crisis which prompted universities to search for self-funded students and experienced overall robust growth of 44 percent in international student enrollment between 2006 and 2013. Finally, Wave III is shaped by the new political order and intensified competition from English-taught programs in Europe and Asia which will slow down the pace of projected growth in international enrollment to 18 percent between 2013 and 2020. In this current Wave of intensified global competition, overall international student enrollment is likely to flatten or decline for most universities. While the reputation and quality of American higher education is admired and emulated around the world, resting on its past laurels will not be sufficient for attracting international students in the Third Wave. This means that universities must get proactive and strategic in reaching, engaging and supporting international students throughout their educational lifecycle. Demand for studying abroad among international students remains robust, however, increasing competition and expectations for value for money will requires proactive and concerted efforts to maintain the global competitiveness of American higher education.
    Keywords: Education, International Students, Foreign Students, Enrollment, Student Mobility
    Date: 2018–04–23
  10. By: André Gröger
    Abstract: This article investigates the impact of negative income shocks in migrant destination countries around the world on the domestic and international labor migration decisions of their family members left behind at origin. Exploiting differences in labor market shocks across and within destinations during the Great Recession, I find large and heterogeneous effects on both types of migration decisions. High remittance-dependent households reduced domestic and increased international labor migration in response to the shock. Low dependence ones remained largely unaffected. I provide a theoretical framework, which rationalizes this heterogeneity by the relative magnitudes of income and substitution effects caused by the shock. The results imply a deterioration in the skill selection of aggregate international migrant flows as high dependence households had below average skill levels. New international migrants targeted the same destinations as established ones from the same household, providing evidence of strong kinship migration networks. The results show that domestic and foreign migration decisions are interrelated and jointly determine aggregate migration flows.
    Keywords: international migration, domestic migration, migration selection, unemployment, Vietnam
    JEL: F22 J61 O15 R23
    Date: 2019–04
  11. By: Matteo Gomellini; Cormac Ó Gráda
    Abstract: Emigrants from Italy and Ireland contributed disproportionately to the Age of Mass Migration. That their departure improved the living standards of those they left behind is hardly in doubt. Nevertheless, a voluminous literature on the selectivity of migrant flows— both from sending and receiving country perspectives—has given rise to claims that migration generates both ‘brain drains’ and ‘brain gains’. On the one hand, positive or negative selection among emigrants may affect the level of human capital in sending countries. On the other hand, the prospect of emigration and return migration may both spur investment in schooling in source countries. This essay describes the history of emigration from Italy and Ireland during the Age of Mass Migration from these perspectives.
    Keywords: Migration; Brain Drain; Brain Gain; Human Capital; Italy; Ireland
    JEL: F22 J61 N33 O15
    Date: 2019–03
  12. By: Ray, Jhilam; Naaz, Farhat; Khasnobis, Poulomi; Majumder, Rajarshi
    Abstract: Migration is a universal phenomenon. From time immemorial women and men have travelled in search of better living. There are two separate streams of migration. The first one is at the upper end of human capital hierarchy, to fill in existing surplus demand in the labour market of destination regions. Consequently, this process is highly selective in nature – in terms of skill & training, age, and gender. The second stream emerges due to ‘Push factors’ or distress conditions in the source regions (relative to the destination) – economic hardships in the form of low wages, high unemployment, heavy population pressure, etc. in the native places, and the lure of better earning opportunities in the economically vibrant destination region. This process is a coping mechanism of poor families and helps them come out of poverty. Thus migration can be both discriminatory and egalitarian. Another issue is the emerging pattern of identity and conflict between natives and migrants in several parts of the country. Social inclusion of migrants is sometimes at jeopardy and goes against the ethos and economics of one nation-one labour market principle. This issue needs to be examined also. Using field data, this paper seeks to understand the following issues:(a) Who migrates – what are the social, economic and institutional factors that determine migration decisions? (b) Are there any disparities between migrants/natives and various socio-religious groups regarding – Educational Attainment, Availability of employment, Nature of employment (casual/regular), Occupational distribution, and Earnings?; (c) What are the migration patterns of lagging socio-religious groups? Whether migration does form a route out of poverty for them, and whether specific policies for these groups exist or should be recommended; (d) Understand whether the process of migration is leading to better human capital standards for the subsequent generation or stifling it; and, (e) Examine the perception of natives in receiving regions about migrant workers and how migrants assimilate. The paper uses primary data from 3 districts of Bengal to explore the issues highlighted. It would also explore the impact on the migrants, the receiving regions and the sending regions through case studies to help us in understanding the issue of social inclusion of migrants. Several processes/local systems of migration have also been examined to highlight the vulnerability of the migrants. Inferences from the paper would help in devising a broadbased and inclusive migration policy.
    Keywords: Migration; Labour Market; Poverty; Inequality; Coping Strategy
    JEL: I3 J21 J24 J31 J61 J68 O1 O15 O18 R2 R23
    Date: 2019–03
  13. By: Aziz, Nusrate; Mahar, Gerry
    Abstract: This study estimates the impact of interprovincial and international migration on interprovincial trade using annual data from 1981- 2016 for Canadian provinces. We apply both the gravity and the spatial trade models for estimation using a number of panel estimators. We find that the endogeneity issue should be addressed when estimating the relationship between migration and interprovincial trade. Estimated results show that interprovincial and international net migrations are positive and significant determinants for interprovincial trade of Canada. Interprovincial immigration is more influential than international immigration in explaining interprovincial trade. Interprovincial imports are influenced more by interprovincial and international migration than interprovincial exports. Province-wise estimates indicate that Quebec, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick are positively affected by interprovincial migration. Among them, all except New Brunswick are also positively affected by international migration. The gravity and the spatial trade models are useful to explain Canadian interprovincial trade. The pooled OLS, fixed effects, 2SLS and SGMM estimators are used in this study. Our results are robust to different estimation methods and alternative measures using both the flow and the stock net migration in Canada’s provinces.
    Keywords: interprovincial migration,international migration,interprovincial trade,gravity model,spatial trade model,endogeneity,IV approach
    JEL: C33 C36 F16 F22
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Bratsberg, Bernt; Moxnes, Andreas; Raaum, Oddbjørn; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of a large shock to labor supply from immigration on occupational wages, labor costs and industry growth. We develop a simple factor-proportions theory where individuals sort into occupations, and industries use occupations with different factor intensities. The model delivers an empirical framework and testable hypotheses that we confront with a rich data set on industry performance, occupational characteristics and immigration. We apply the methodology to one of the largest labor immigration shocks of the 21th century: The immigration wave to Norway after the Eastern enlargement of the European Union. We introduce a novel instrument that exploits the fact that the language requirements are significant barriers for foreign workers and these requirements vary across occupations. The results point to labor migration leading to large adjustments in relative industry employment, labor costs and wages, and these effects are particularly strong in industries that are initially intensive in the use of immigrant occupations. Finally, a quantification of the general equilibrium of our model shows that the welfare effect of immigration was close to zero for natives, but negative for the existing population of immigrants.
    Keywords: Eastern enlargement; Immigration; Industry Adjustments
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2019–04
  15. By: Henrik Kleven; Camille Landais; Mathilde Muñoz; Stefanie Stantcheva
    Abstract: In this article, we review a growing empirical literature on the effects of personal taxation on the geographic mobility of people and discuss its policy implications. We start by laying out the empirical challenges that prevented progress in this area until recently, and then discuss how recent work have made use of new data sources and quasi-experimental approaches to credibly estimate migration responses. This body of work has shown that certain segments of the labor market, especially high-income workers and professions with little location-specific human capital, may be quite responsive to taxes in their location decisions. When considering the implications for tax policy design, we distinguish between uncoordinated and coordinated tax policy. We highlight the importance of recognizing that mobility elasticities are not exogenous, structural parameters. They can vary greatly depending on the population being analyzed, the size of the tax jurisdiction, the extent of tax policy coordination, and a range of non-tax policies. While migration responses add to the efficiency costs of redistributing income, we caution against over-using the recent evidence of (sizeable) mobility responses to taxes as an argument for less redistribution in a globalized world.
    JEL: H2 H21 H24 H26 H71
    Date: 2019–04

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