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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Chort, Isabelle (Université de Pau et des pays de l’Adour); de la Rupelle, Maëlys (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses state-level data on migration flows between Mexico and the U.S. from 1999 to 2011 to investigate the migration response to climate shocks and the mitigating impact of an agricultural cash-transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden). While lower than average precipitations increase undocumented migration, especially from the most agricultural states, Fonden amounts decrease the undocumented migration response to abnormally low precipitations during the dry season. Changes equalizing the distribution of PROCAMPO and favoring vulnerable producers in the non irrigated ejido sector mitigate the impact of droughts on migration, especially for a high initial level of inequality. |
| Keywords: | international migration, climate, public policies, weather variability, natural disasters, Mexico-U.S. migration, inequality |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 Q18 Q18 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12227&r=all |
| By: | Matthias Huber; Silke Übelmesser |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of the presence of German language learning opportunities abroad on migration to Germany. We use information on the presence of the Goethe-Institut (GI), which is an association that promotes German culture and offers language courses and standardized exams. Our unique dataset covers 69 countries for the period 1977 to 2014. In this multiple-origin and single-destination framework, we estimate fixed-effects models as our basic specification. We find evidence that the number of language institutes of the GI in a country is positively correlated with migration from that country to Germany. The correlation is higher for countries with lower income, larger linguistic distance and without wars. To establish causality, we consider Switzerland as an alternative destination country as the decision to open a language institute in a country is exogenous to migration flows from that country to Switzerland. We find that the institutes of the GI also affect migration flows to the German-speaking part of Switzerland, but not to the French- and Italian-speaking part. Backed by further extensions which control for the presence of multilateral resistance and omitted variable bias, we interpret our results as presenting a causal effect from language learning opportunities to migration flows. |
| Keywords: | language skills, language learning, international migration, panel data |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7569&r=all |
| By: | Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol); King, Roswitha M. (Østfold University College) |
| Abstract: | For decades, countries aspiring to join the European Union (EU) have been linked to it through migration. Yet little is known about how migration affects individual support for joining the EU in prospective member states. We explore the relationship between migration and support for EU accession in the Western Balkans. Using data from the Gallup Balkan Monitor survey, we find that prospective and return migrants, as well as people with relatives abroad, are more likely to vote favourably in a hypothetical EU referendum. At the same time, only people with relatives abroad are more likely to consider EU membership a good thing. Our results suggest that migration affects attitudes toward joining the EU principally through instrumental/utilitarian motives, with channels related to information and cosmopolitanism playing only a minor role. Overall, our study suggests that migration fosters support for joining a supranational organization in the migrants' countries of origin, which, in turn, is likely to affect political and institutional development of these countries. |
| Keywords: | migration, return migration, European Union, european integration, Western Balkans |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12254&r=all |
| By: | Wei, Xiahai (Huaqiao University); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Jiao, Yang (Fort Hays State University); Li, Jiahui (Peking University) |
| Abstract: | Using unique matched employer-employee data from China, we discover that migrant workers in the manufacturing industry who are proficient in the local dialect earn lower wages than those who are not. We also find that workers with better dialect skills are more likely to settle for lower wages in exchange for social insurance. We hypothesize that they are doing so in the hope of obtaining permanent residency and household registration status (hukou) in the host city where they work. Further tests show that the phenomenon of "exchanging wages for social insurance participation" is more pronounced among workers employed in smaller enterprises. Moreover, migrant workers with better language skills have a stronger desire to stay in the host city. Our conclusions are robust to different specifications, even after addressing the endogeneity issue for language acquisition. The present study provides a new perspective on the impact of language fluency on social integration among migrants, one of the most disadvantaged groups in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | wages, language ability, dialect, social insurance, migrants, China |
| JEL: | J32 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12248&r=all |
| By: | Giovanni Peri; Akira Sasahara |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger. |
| JEL: | J61 O13 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25728&r=all |
| By: | Koşar, Gizem (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Ransom, Tyler (Oklahoma University, IZA); Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Residential mobility rates in the United States have fallen considerably over the past three decades. The cause of the long-term decline remains largely unexplained. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of alternative drivers of residential mobility, including job opportunities, neighborhood and housing amenities, social networks, and housing and moving costs, using data from two waves of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our hypothetical choice methodology elicits choice probabilities from which we recover the distribution of preferences for location and mobility attributes without concerns about omitted variables and selection biases that hamper analyses based on observed mobility choices alone. We estimate substantial heterogeneity in the willingness to pay (WTP) for location and housing amenities across different demographic groups, with income considerations, proximity to friends and family, neighbors’ shared norms and social values, and monetary and psychological costs of moving being key drivers of migration and residential location choices. The estimates point to potentially important amplifying roles played by family, friends, and shared norms and values in the decline of residential mobility rates. |
| Keywords: | geographic labor mobility; migration; neighborhood characteristics |
| Date: | 2019–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:883&r=all |
| By: | Entorf, Horst (Goethe University Frankfurt); Lange, Martin (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we examine anti-foreigner hate crime in the wake of the large influx of asylum seekers to Germany in 2014 and 2015. By exploiting the quasi-experimental assignment of asylum seekers to German regions, we estimate the causal effect of an unexpected and sudden change in the share of the foreign-born population on anti-foreigner hate crime. Our county-level analysis shows that not simply the size of regional asylum seeker inflows drives the increase in hate crime, but the rapid compositional change of the residential population: Areas with previously low shares of foreign-born inhabitants that face large-scale immigration of asylum seekers witness the strongest upsurge in hate crime. Economically deprived regions and regions with a legacy of anti-foreigner hate crimes are also found to be prone to hate crime against refugees. However, when we explicitly control for East-West German differences, the predominance of native-born residents at the local level stands out as the single most important factor explaining the sudden increase in hate crime. |
| Keywords: | hate crime, immigration, natural experiment, regional conditions |
| JEL: | J15 R23 K42 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12229&r=all |
| By: | Stuart, Bryan (George Washington University); Taylor, Evan J. (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of social connectedness on crime across U.S. cities from 1970 to 2009. Migration networks among African Americans from the South generated variation across destinations in the concentration of migrants from the same birth town. Using this novel source of variation, we find that social connectedness considerably reduces murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, and motor vehicle thefts, with a one standard deviation increase in social connectedness reducing murders by 21 percent and motor vehicle thefts by 20 percent. Social connectedness especially reduces murders of adolescents and young adults committed during gang and drug activity. |
| Keywords: | crime, social connectedness, Great Migration |
| JEL: | K42 N32 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12228&r=all |
| By: | Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Lodigiani, Elisabetta (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the (causal) effects of low skill immigration on the performance of Italian manufacturing firms. We find that an increase of the local supply of low skilled immigrants by one thousand units – which corresponds to 8.5 percent of the mean value - raises profits on average by somewhat less than half a percentage point, reduces average labour costs by about 0.1 percent and has no effect on TFP. The positive effects on profits are larger for small firms operating in low tech sectors and for firms located in areas specializing in low skill productions. Our evidence suggests that the recent waves of low skilled immigration in Italy may have hampered the transition to an economic structure characterized by high productivity and wage growth. |
| Keywords: | low skilled immigration, profits, Italy |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12226&r=all |
| By: | Kleven, Henrik; Landais, Camille; Munoz, Mathilde; Stantcheva, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | In this article, we review a growing empirical literature on the effects of personal taxation on the geographic mobility of people and discuss its policy implications. We start by laying out the empirical challenges that prevented progress in this area until recently, and then discuss how recent work have made use of new data sources and quasi-experimental approaches to credibly estimate migration responses. This body of work has shown that certain segments of the labor market, especially high-income workers and professions with little location-specific human capital, may be quite responsive to taxes in their location decisions. When considering the implications for tax policy design, we distinguish between uncoordinated and coordinated tax policy. We highlight the importance of recognizing that mobility elasticities are not exogenous, structural parameters. They can vary greatly depending on the population being analyzed, the size of the tax jurisdiction, the extent of tax policy coordination, and a range of non-tax policies. While migration responses add to the efficiency costs of redistributing income, we caution against over-using the recent evidence of (sizeable) mobility responses to taxes as an argument for less redistribution in a globalized world. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13649&r=all |
| By: | Mathieu Couttenier (University of Lyon, ENS de Lyon, Gate UMR 5824, F-69342 Lyon, France and CEPR); Sophie Hatte (University of Lyon, ENS de Lyon, Gate UMR 5824, F-69342 Lyon, France); Mathias Thoenig (Department of Economics, University of Lausanne and CEPR); Stephanos Vlachos (Department of Economics, University of Vienna) |
| Abstract: | We study how news coverage of immigrant criminality impacted municipality-level votes in the November 2009 “minaret ban” referendum in Switzerland. The campaign, successfully led by the populist Swiss People’s Party, played aggressively on fears of Muslim immigration and linked Islam with terrorism and violence. We combine an exhaustive violent crime detection dataset with detailed information on crime coverage from 12 newspapers. The data allow us to quantify the extent of pre-vote media bias in the coverage of migrant criminality. We then estimate a theory-based voting equation in the cross-section of municipalities. Exploiting random variations in crime occurrences, we find a first-order, positive effect of news coverage on political support for the minaret ban. Counterfactual simulations show that, under a law forbidding newspapers to disclose a perpetrator’s nationality, the vote in favor of the ban would have decreased by 5 percentage points (from 57.6% to 52.6%). |
| Keywords: | Media, Violent crime, Immigration, Vote, Populism |
| JEL: | D72 L82 Z12 K42 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1914&r=all |
| By: | Lena Walther; Lukas M. Fuchs; Jürgen Schupp; Christian von Scheve |
| Abstract: | The mental health and well-being of refugees are both prerequisites for and indicators of social integration. Using data from the first wave of a representative prospective panel of refugees living in Germany, we investigated how different living conditions, especially those subject to integration policies, are associated with experienced distress and life satisfaction in newly-arrived adult refugees. In particular, we investigated how the outcome of the asylum process, family reunification, housing conditions, participation in integration and language courses, being in education or working, social interaction with the native population, and language skills are related to mental health and well-being. Our findings show that negative and pending outcomes of the asylum process and separation from family are related to higher levels of distress and lower levels of life satisfaction. Living in communal instead of private housing is also associated with greater distress and lower life satisfaction. Being employed, by contrast, is related to reduced distress. Contact to members of the host society and better host country language skills are also related to lower levels of distress and higher levels of life satisfaction. Our findings offer insights into correlates of refugees’ well-being in the first years after arrival in a host country, a dimension of integration often overlooked in existing studies, thus having the potential to inform decision-making in a highly contested policy area. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1029&r=all |
| By: | Timothy J. Halliday (University of Hawaii at Manoa, UHERO, IZA); Randall Q. Akee (Brookings Institution and UCLA (on-leave), IZA, NBER); Tetine Sentell (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Megan Inada (Kokua Kalihi Valley Comprehensive Family Services); Jill Miyamura (Hawaii Health Information Corporation) |
| Abstract: | In March of 2015, the State of Hawaii stopped covering the vast majority of migrants from countries belonging to the Compact of Free Association (COFA) in the state Medicaid program. As a result COFA migrants were required to obtain private insurance in health insurance exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act. Using statewide administrative hospital discharge data, we show that Medicaid-funded hospitalizations and emergency room visits declined in this population by 69% and 42% after the expiration of Medicaid eligibility. Utilization funded by private insurance did increase but not enough to offset the declines in publicly-funded utilization. This resulted in a net decrease in utilization. In addition, we show that uninsured ER visits increased as a consequence of the expiration of Medicaid benefits. Paradoxically, we also find a substantial increase in Medicaid-funded ER visits by infants after the expiration of benefits which is consistent with a substitution of ER visits for ambulatory care for the very young. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Health Insurance, Cost Sharing, Medicaid, Insurance Exchange |
| JEL: | I10 I14 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2019-1&r=all |
| By: | Spencer Bastani; Thomas Giebe; Chizheng Miao |
| Abstract: | We analyze differences in tax filing behavior between natives and immigrants using population-wide Swedish administrative data, focusing on two empirical examples. First, controlling for a rich set of variables, we compare deduction behavior of immigrants and natives with the same commuting patterns within Sweden’s largest commuting zone. We find that newly arrived immigrants file fewer deductions than natives, that immigrants with a longer duration of stay in the host country behave more like natives, and that immigrants with the longest stay file the most, even more than natives. Second, we analyze bunching behavior among the self-employed at the salient first kink point of the Swedish central government income tax schedule, located in the upper middle part of the income distribution. We find that self-employed immigrants exhibit significantly less bunching behavior than natives, even after a long time in the host country. We highlight residential segregation as a main driver of the observed behavioral differences. |
| Keywords: | deductions, tax filing, bunching, immigrants, natives, integration |
| JEL: | D31 H21 H24 H26 J22 J61 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7576&r=all |
| By: | Rana Comertpay; Andreas Irmen; Anastasia Litina |
| Abstract: | This research empirically establishes the hypothesis that the process of population aging in a society as a whole affects the attitudes of its members towards immigration. Hence, an aging social environment exerts an effect on the attitudes of individuals towards immigration after accounting for their age and other individual characteristics. We test this hypothesis in a multilevel analysis of individuals living in 25 European OECD countries over the period 2002-2017. Our measure of “societal population aging” is the old-age dependency ratio. “Attitudes” are taken from immigration related questions in eight consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. For these attitudes we find non-linear, U-shaped relationships. Hence, the effect of societal population aging on individual attitudes towards immigration is negative in young societies and positive in old ones. |
| Keywords: | population aging, attitudes, immigration, culture |
| JEL: | J10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7565&r=all |