nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2019‒01‒21
twenty-six papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Immigrants' Contribution to Innovativeness: Evidence from a Non-Selective Immigration Country By Katharina Candel-Haug; Alexander Cuntz; Oliver Falck
  2. The Impact of Brexit on International Students' Return Intentions By Falkingham, Jane; Giulietti, Corrado; Wahba, Jackline; Wang, Chuhong
  3. Family Return Migration By Till Nikolka
  4. Migrants and Firms : Evidence from China By Imbert, Clement; Seror, Marlon; Zhang, Yifan; Zylberberg, Yanos
  5. Occupational Recognition and Immigrant Labor Market Outcomes By Brücker, Herbert; Glitz, Albrecht; Lerche, Adrian; Romiti, Agnese
  6. Diversity in Segmention. Patterns of Immigrant Competition in US Labor Markets By Noe Wiener
  7. Is there a ‘pig cycle’ in the labour supply of doctors? How training and immigration policies respond to physician shortages By Xavier Chojnicki; Yasser Moullan
  8. The Effect of Increasing Immigration Enforcement on the Labor Supply of High-Skilled Citizen Women By East, Chloe N.; Velasquez, Andrea
  9. Substitution between Groups of Highly-Educated, Foreign-Born, H-1B Workers By Sparber, Chad
  10. Regional Labor Mobility in Spain By Lucy Qian Liu
  11. On the Origin and Composition of the German East-West Population Gap By Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin
  12. On the Impact of Household Asset level and Inequality on Inter-governorate Migration: Evidence from Egypt By Mohamed El Hedi Arouri; Nguyen Viet Cuong
  13. Preferences for Redistribution and International Migration By Ilpo Kauppinen; Panu Poutvaara
  14. Spillover Effects of Stricter Immigration Policies By Bratu, Cristina; Dahlberg, Matz; Engdahl, Mattias; Nikolka, Till
  15. The role of education in promoting positive attitudes towards migrants at times of stress By Francesca Borgonovi; Artur Pokropek
  16. How do Europeans differ in their attitudes to immigration?: Findings from the European Social Survey 2002/03 – 2016/17 By Anthony Heath; Lindsay Richards
  17. Does Education Affect Attitudes Towards Immigration? Evidence from Germany By Shushanik Margaryan; Annemarie Paul; Thomas Siedler
  18. On the Anatomy of a Refugee Dispersal Policy: Neighborhood Integration and Dynamic Sorting By Matz Dahlberg; Madhinee Valeyatheepillay
  19. Migration Shocks and Housing: Evidence from the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan By Ibrahim Al Hawarin; Ragui Assaad; Ahmed Elsayed
  20. The Principle of Non-Refoulement and the Obligations of the United Nations in Ensuring the Accountability of States toward Refugee Protection By Eric Che Muma
  21. Syrian Refugees in Jordan: Demographics, Livelihoods, Education, and Health By Caroline Krafft; Maia Sieverding; Caitlyn Keo; Colette Salemi
  22. The Impact of Refugees on Employment and Wages in Jordan By Belal Fallah; Caroline Krafft; Jackline Wahba
  23. Impact of Syrian Refugees in Jordan on Education Outcomes for Jordanian Youth By Ragui Assaad; Thomas Ginn; Mohamed Saleh
  24. Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving in or moving out? By Nelly El-Mallakh; Jackline Wahba
  25. Impact of Refugees on Immigrants’ Labor Market Outcomes By Bilal Malaeb; Jackline Wahba
  26. Migration Dynamics during the Refugee Influx in Jordan By Bilal Malaeb; Jackline Wahba

  1. By: Katharina Candel-Haug; Alexander Cuntz; Oliver Falck
    Abstract: The economic consequences of migration are hotly debated and a main topic of recent populist movements across Europe. We analyze Polish immigration in the context of the 2004 enlargement of the European Union and find a positive and significant spillover effect of the immigrants on the number of local inventors in German counties in 2001-2010. For causal identification, we exploit a historical episode in the Polish migration history to Germany before the fall of the Iron Curtain and construct a shift-share instrument. Our results differ from findings for high-skilled migration to the United States, which is particularly interesting as Polish immigration to Germany was not based on selection by qualification in our period of analysis.
    Keywords: migration, innovation
    JEL: J61 O31
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Falkingham, Jane; Giulietti, Corrado (University of Southampton); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton); Wang, Chuhong (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: This paper is the first attempt to study the causal impact of "Brexit", namely the UK's departure from the European Union (EU), on the post-graduation mobility decisions of EU students in the UK. We exploit the British government's formal withdrawal notification under Article 50 as a natural experiment and employ a difference-in-differences design. Using data from a new survey of graduating international students, we find that EU graduating students are significantly more likely than non-EU graduating students to plan on leaving the UK upon graduation immediately after the announcement. Interestingly, results are especially driven by students from the new EU countries and students from the EU14 countries who are undecided of their migration plans. We further show that the deterrent effects are heterogeneous and depend on age and subject among others. These findings carry important implications for post-Brexit UK and for other European countries with emerging calls for their own referendums.
    Keywords: Brexit, Article 50, higher education, international students, intention to leave
    JEL: J15 J61
    Date: 2018–12
  3. By: Till Nikolka
    Abstract: This paper investigates the link between family ties and return migration using Danish full population register data. Couples returning from Denmark to the non-Nordic countries are positively selected with respect to income of the primary earner. Positive selection holds for male and female primary earners, but is weaker among dual earner couples and among couples with children. Results suggest that schooling considerations as well as factors related to cultural identity play a role for return decisions of couples with children.
    Keywords: International migration, family migration, return migration, education
    JEL: F22 J13 J61
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Imbert, Clement (University of Warwick and JPAL); Seror, Marlon (University of Bristol); Zhang, Yifan (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Zylberberg, Yanos (University of Bristol and CESifo)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the causal effect of rural-urban migration on urban production in China. We use longitudinal data on manufacturing firms between 2001 and 2006 and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration due to agricultural price shocks. Following a migrant inflow, labor costs decline and employment expands. Labor productivity decreases sharply and remains low in the medium run. A quantitative framework suggests that destinations become too labor-abundant and migration mostly benefits lowproductivity firms within locations. As migrants select into high-productivity destinations, migration however strongly contributes to the equalization of factor productivity across locations
    JEL: D24 J23 J61 O15
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Glitz, Albrecht (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Lerche, Adrian (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Romiti, Agnese (University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze how the formal recognition of immigrants' foreign occupational qualifications affects their subsequent labor market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on a novel German data set that links respondents' survey information to their administrative records, allowing us to observe immigrants at monthly intervals before, during and after their application for occupational recognition. Our findings show substantial employment and wage gains from occupational recognition. After three years, the full recognition of immigrants' foreign qualifications increases their employment rates by 24.5 percentage points and raises their hourly wages by 19.8 percent relative to immigrants without recognition. We show that the increase in employment is largely driven by a higher propensity to work in regulated occupations. Relating our findings to the economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany, we further document that occupational recognition leads to substantially faster convergence of immigrants' earnings to those of their native counterparts.
    Keywords: occupational recognition, immigrants, labor markets
    JEL: J15 J24 J44 J61
    Date: 2018–12
  6. By: Noe Wiener (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
    Abstract: Competition between immigrant and native workers takes place in labor markets that are segmented along various, often unobservable dimensions. It is desirable to measure the extent to which native workers are effectively shielded from competition by immigrant workers by virtue of such patterns of segmentation. This paper proposes measures of group differences in labor market segmentation on the basis of incomplete data, such as can be obtained from the US Census. These measures are derived from a general class of models of labor competition in the Smithian tradition. The observed wage distributions of native and foreign-born workers in the United States (at the national and metropolitan level) can be approximated remarkably well with this class of model, suggesting that a parsimonious account of wage inequality is feasible.
    Keywords: Immigration, labor market competition, segmented labor markets, wage inequality, statistical equilibrium
    JEL: J15 J31 J42 J61
    Date: 2019–01
  7. By: Xavier Chojnicki (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé, LEM - Lille - Economie et Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille); Yasser Moullan (IRDES - Institut de Recherche et Documentation en Economie de la Santé, IMI - International Migration Institute - University of Oxford [Oxford], CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de la Réunion)
    Abstract: Many OECD countries are faced with the considerable challenge of a physician shortage. This paper investigates the strategies that OECD governments adopt and determines whether these policies effectively address these medical shortages. Due to the amount of time medical training requires, it takes longer for an expansion in medical school capacity to have an effect than the recruitment of foreign-trained physicians. Using data obtained from the OECD (2014) and Bhargava et al. (2011), we constructed a unique country-level panel dataset that includes annual data for 17 OECD countries on physician shortages, the number of medical school graduates and immigration and emigration rates from 1991 to 2004. By calculating panel fixed-effect estimates, we find that after a period of medical shortages, OECD governments produce more medical graduates in the long run but in the short term, they primarily recruit from abroad; however, at the same time, certain practising physicians choose to emigrate. Simulation results show the limits of recruiting only abroad in the long term but also highlight its appropriateness for the short term when there is a recurrent cycle of shortages/surpluses in the labour supply of physicians (pig cycle theory).
    Keywords: Physician shortages,International migration of doctors,Medical graduates,Foreign-trained physicians
    Date: 2018–03
  8. By: East, Chloe N. (University of Colorado Denver); Velasquez, Andrea (University of Colorado Denver)
    Abstract: Recent decades have seen a surge in local interior immigration enforcement. In this paper we examine a little discussed, but potentially important, spillover effect of enforcement policies: changes in high-skilled citizen women's labor supply due to changes in the cost of outsourcing household production. Undocumented immigrants disproportionately supply household services - e.g. as maids, cooks, child care workers, and gardeners - so the price of outsourcing these services is expected to rise in response to enforcement. Combining data on the timing and location of these enforcement policies, with data on labor supply from the American Community Survey over 2005-2012, we implement a difference-in-difference approach with location and year fixed effects to take advantage of the staggered implementation of these policies. We find that an increase in intensity of immigration enforcement in a local area reduced the labor supply of citizen college- educated women with children. Several results suggest that changes in the price of outsourcing are driving these results: 1) we see an increase in time spent on household production tasks among mothers in the American Time Use Survey, 2) we confirm that there is an increase in the wages of household workers, and 3) we see no similar effects for high-skilled men or women without children. This indicates there are important unintended consequences of enforcement policies on high-skilled citizen mothers' ability to work.
    Keywords: immigration, labor supply, gender
    JEL: F22 J2 J16
    Date: 2018–12
  9. By: Sparber, Chad (Colgate University)
    Abstract: Highly-educated foreign-born workers can secure legal US employment through the H-1B program. The annual cap on H-1B issuances varies across individuals' US educational experience, H-1B work history, and employer type. Caps are met quickly in most but not all years. This paper exploits these differences to identify whether firms substitute across different sources of highly-educated, foreign-born, H-1B labor. New H-1B workers without advanced degrees from US universities substitute with new H-1B workers possessing advanced US degrees. We find no evidence for substitution with established H-1B workers.
    Keywords: skilled workers, H-1B status, immigrant
    JEL: J61 F22
    Date: 2018–12
  10. By: Lucy Qian Liu
    Abstract: This paper studies the main factors that explain the low regional mobility in Spain, with a view to identifying policy options at the regional and central level to promote labor mobility. The empirical analysis finds that house prices, labor market conditions, and the pervasiveness of labor market duality at the regional level are the main determinants for Spain’s regional mobility, while labor market institutions and policies play an important role at the national level. Policies that facilitate wage setting flexibility and reduce labor market duality could help enhance the functioning of the labor market, thereby promoting labor mobility. There may be also room for policies to incentivize people to move and provide support through targeted active labor market policies.
    Date: 2018–12–13
  11. By: Eder, Christoph (University of Linz); Halla, Martin (University of Linz)
    Abstract: The East-West gap in the German population is believed to originate from migrants escaping the socialist regime in the German Democratic Republic (GDR). We use newly collected regional data and the combination of a regression discontinuity design in space with a difference-in-differences approach to document that the largest part of this gap is due to a massive internal migration wave 3 years prior to the establishment of the GDR. The timing and spatial pattern of this migration movement suggest that the dominant motive was escaping physical assault by the Soviet army and not avoiding the socialist regime. The skill composition of these migrants shows a strong positive selection. The gap in population has remained remarkably sharp in space and is growing.
    Keywords: institutions, wartime violence against civilians, selective migration, regional migration, World War II, Germany, spatial distribution, regional economic activity
    JEL: N44 N94 R23 R11 R12 J61
    Date: 2018–12
  12. By: Mohamed El Hedi Arouri (Université Côte d’Azur, France & ERF); Nguyen Viet Cuong
    Abstract: We investigate whether the level and the inequality of household assets impact inter-governorate migration in Egypt using gravity models and data from the 1996 and 2006 Population and Housing Censuses of Egypt. We find that people tend to move to the governorates with higher asset level and higher asset inequality. This suggests that there is a positive association between inequality and economic growth. Areas with high economic level and inequality attract more migrants than areas with low economic level and inequality. Moreover, our findings suggest that unlike non-work migration, the low level of assets in original governorate is a push factor of work migration.
    Date: 2018–04–12
  13. By: Ilpo Kauppinen; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: The Tiebout hypothesis suggests that people who migrate from more to less redistributive countries are more negative towards redistribution than non-migrants. However, differences between migrants’ and non-migrants’ redistributive preferences might also reflect self-interest. We present a model in-corporating these competing mechanisms and test it using survey data on Danish emigrants and non-migrants. We find strong support for the Tiebout hypothesis among men, while women’s preference patterns are opposite to what the hypothesis predicts. Even though emigrants neither pay taxes nor receive benefits in their country of origin, they tend to support policies that would be beneficial for people like themselves.
    Keywords: Migration; emigration; welfare state; redistribution; political preferences
    JEL: D64 D72 F22 J61 H20
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Bratu, Cristina (Uppsala University); Dahlberg, Matz (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Engdahl, Mattias (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Nikolka, Till (ifo Institute)
    Abstract: We evaluate the importance of spillover effects of national migration policies by estimating the effect of stricter rules on family reunification in Denmark in 2002 on migration to neighboring countries. We reach two main conclusions. First, we show that stricter rules for reunification lead to a clear and significant increase in emigration of Danish citizens with immigrant background. Most of the emigrants left Denmark for Sweden, a neighboring country in which reunification was possible. Second, we demonstrate that a significant fraction of the individuals that came to Sweden to reunite with a partner left the country again; within two (eight) years around 20% (50%) had left, with the absolute majority leaving for Denmark. Our results indicate that potential spillover effects from national migration policies should be taken into account when forming migration policy.
    Keywords: Migration Policy; family reunification; international migration; spillover effects
    JEL: F22 J12 J15
    Date: 2018–09–28
  15. By: Francesca Borgonovi; Artur Pokropek (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: The paper examines the role of education in shaping individuals’ attitudes towards migration in European countries using data from the 2012, 2014 and 2016 editions of the European Social Survey (rounds 6, 7 and 8). Results indicate that, despite the large influx of migrants experienced by many European countries in 2015, attitudes towards migration reported by 25-65 year olds in Europe did not vary significantly over the period considered. Education was strongly associated with individuals’ attitudes towards migration although the strength of the association and how the association changed over time varied greatly across countries. On average a difference of one standard deviation in educational participation is associated with a difference of 20% of a standard deviation in reported opposition to migration. Around three quarters of the association between education and opposition to migration can be explained by the lower economic threat, cultural threat and prejudice that individuals with higher educational participation experience. Between 2014 and 2016 the overall association between education and attitudes towards migration became weaker in countries with an increase in foreign-born population, a decrease in polarisation that was accompanied by no changes in overall levels of opposition to migration. The presence of migrants in a country and the unemployment rate moderate the extent to which the association between education and attitudes towards migration is mediated by cultural threat but not economic threat or prejudice.
    Date: 2018–12
  16. By: Anthony Heath (Centre for Social Investigation, Nuffield College, Oxford); Lindsay Richards (Centre for Social Investigation, Nuffield College, Oxford)
    Abstract: Nordic countries such as Sweden, Norway and Finland have been consistently the most favourable to immigration while eastern European countries such as the Czech Republic and Hungary have been the least favourable. Despite their relatively high average levels of support for immigration, however, many countries of western and northern Europe are quite strongly polarized internally along educational and age lines. This can perhaps explain why political divisions over immigration can be so salient in these countries. Comparing results from 2002/03 and 2016/07, one finds that European attitudes were on average quite stable. However, a number of countries became more generous while several others became more negative. On the issue of government policy towards refugees, there was a marked shift in a negative direction after the 2015/16 refugee crisis. Countries such as Austria, Germany, and Sweden which had experienced large inflows of refugees showed particularly large declines in public support for generous government policy towards asylum requests.
    Keywords: European Social Survey, Immigration, Public opinion, Refugees, Symbolic boundaries
    JEL: F22 J16 J61
    Date: 2019–01–16
  17. By: Shushanik Margaryan; Annemarie Paul; Thomas Siedler
    Abstract: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and exploiting the staggered implementation of a compulsory schooling reform in West Germany, this article finds that an additional year of schooling lowers the probability of being very concerned about immigration to Germany by around six percentage points (20 percent). Furthermore, our findings imply significant spillovers from maternal education to immigration attitudes of her offspring. While we find no evidence for returns to education within a range of labour market outcomes, higher social trust appears to be an important mechanism behind our findings.
    Keywords: attitudes towards immigration; intergenerational effects; schooling; externalities; instrumental variables estimation
    JEL: J15 J62
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Matz Dahlberg; Madhinee Valeyatheepillay
    Abstract: This paper uses Swedish geocoded data to empirically investigate the effect of a geographic dispersal policy on the characteristics of the refugees’ individualized (k-nearest) neighborhoods and the placed refugees’ neighborhood trajectories over time. Our findings indicate that the initial neighborhood of placed refugees are defined by a higher share of natives, a lower share of non-Western immigrants and a higher share of high-income individuals compared to refugees that arrived in a time period when they could choose themselves where to locate. In this sense, the placed refugees are geographically more integrated. We also find that, in subsequent moves for the placed refugees, those moving longer distances experience a drop in the share of natives and an increase in the share of non-Western in their close neighborhoods. Stayers and short-distance movers, on the other hand, have a less drastic change in their neighborhood in terms of share of natives and nonwestern over time.
    Keywords: Refugees, placement policy, individualized neighborhoods, sorting, geographic integration
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2019
  19. By: Ibrahim Al Hawarin (Al-Hussein Bin Talal University); Ragui Assaad; Ahmed Elsayed
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of migration shocks on housing conditions and rental prices for locals. The identification comes from the regional variation in the large influx of Syrian refugees to Jordan in the wake of the Syrian conflict starting in 2011. We employ a difference in difference approach to evaluate the change in housing conditions and rental prices in areas with relatively higher flows of Syrian refugees compared to areas with relatively lower flows of Syrian refugees. The paper shows that the share of Syrian refugees seems to have a negative, yet small, impact on housing conditions of locals. Heterogeneity analyses shows that while poorer household are affected more negatively, richer household experience an improvement in their housing outcomes in response to the share of refugees. The paper further shows that housing rents significantly increased in the regions closer to Syrian borders. However, housing quality was more responsive to the crisis in regions that are relatively more distant
    Date: 2018–06–28
  20. By: Eric Che Muma (Justus Liebig University Giessen)
    Abstract: Since the outbreak of the Second World War, humanity has witnessed several challenges in the maintenance of global peace and justice and in the protection of refugees and asylum seekers, thus resulting from the outbreak of conflicts and threats posed by terrorist groups. These conflicts are classified into national and international conflicts. The impact of conflicts and inter-tribal wars between states or nations has witnessed a new form of migration from the twentieth century commonly referred to as refugee migration. This paper aims to analyse the principle of non-refoulement under the 1951 Refugee Convention and the obligations of the United Nations in ensuring the accountability of state parties toward the protection of refugees or displaced persons within their respective territories, with lessons from Nigeria and Cameroon. The paper argues that state parties to the said treaty are bound to protect everyone who is subject within their respective jurisdictions particularly, refugees and displaced persons. Effective protection is a necessary measure for ensuring that states follow the affirmative legal obligations undertaken after the ratification of the Refugee Convention. It is also an important approach for evaluating the credibility of the United Nations in accomplishing its objective toward peace, justice, and the protection of refugees or displaced persons.
    Keywords: Refugee, non-refoulement, United Nations, obligations, accountability
    Date: 2018–11
  21. By: Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); Maia Sieverding; Caitlyn Keo; Colette Salemi
    Abstract: Since 2011, Jordan has been hosting a substantial number of refugees from Syria. This paper profiles the Syrian refugee population in Jordan in terms of demographic characteristics, participation in the labor market, education, and health outcomes. Syrian refugees are disproportionately young, with half the refugee population under age 15. Despite the availability of work permits, less than a fifth of refugees are working, and those who do work are primarily in informal employment and working without permits. Enrollment rates are well below universal, with many refugee children not returning to school after an interruption, which was often caused by the conflict. Low enrollment rates also suggest that refugees face challenges in persisting in school in Jordan through basic education. Refugees have limited access to health insurance and although most do access health services, they are more likely than Jordanians to rely on charitable organizations and pharmacies as their usual source of care. Despite food supports, refugees, particularly those residing in camps, also suffer from higher levels of food insecurity.
    Date: 2018–04–26
  22. By: Belal Fallah (Palestine Polytechnic University); Caroline Krafft; Jackline Wahba
    Abstract: Starting in 2011, the Syrian conflict caused a large influx of refugees into Jordan. As of 2015, there were an estimated 1.3 million Syrians in a country with just 6.6 million Jordanians. The refugees are largely living and, in some cases, working in Jordanian host communities. This paper investigates the impact of the refugee influx on the Jordanian labor market. Panel data from 2010 and 2016 combined with information on where the refugee influx was concentrated allow us to identify the impact of refugees on Jordanians’ labor market outcomes. Overall, we find that Jordanians living in areas with additional refugees have had no worse labor market outcomes than Jordanians with less exposure to the refugee influx.
    Date: 2018–05–03
  23. By: Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota and ERF); Thomas Ginn; Mohamed Saleh
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees during the Syrian Civil War on the educational outcomes of Jordanians. Outcomes we examine include school entry, school enrollment at various levels and advancement from one level to the next. The project employs a unique data source, the 2016 Jordanian Labor Market Panel Survey that records retrospective educational outcomes for a nationally representative sample of Jordanians. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits cross-locality variation in exposure to Syrian refugees across cohorts before and during the influx of refugees. We find no evidence that greater exposure to Syrian refugee has affected the attainment of Jordanians. Evidence from the Ministry of Education’s Educational Management Information System (EMIS) suggests that Jordanian schools responded to the influx by adding a second shift in schools in high-Syrian areas, and that teacher-to-student ratio and classroom size are both unaffected by the influx.
    Date: 2018–09–04
  24. By: Nelly El-Mallakh (University of Strasbourg); Jackline Wahba
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Syrian refugee inflows on the migration dynamics of Jordanians. Using unique data from Jordan, we exploit the geographical distribution of Syrian refugees across Jordanian subdistricts and examine its impact on international, return and internal migration patterns of Jordanians. We rely on retrospective information to construct individual and household panel data before and after the beginning of the 2011 Syrian war. Using a Difference-in-Differences specification that takes into account unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the Syrian refugee inflows in Jordan do not have any effect on the international and return migration patterns of Jordanians. However, the Syrian presence increases the probability of Jordanian internal migration. Particularly, being a resident in camp governorates increases the probability of moving out while it decreases the probability of moving in. Our results are the first to show the impact of the massive refugee inflows on the host country’s migration dynamics.
    Date: 2018–05–10
  25. By: Bilal Malaeb (University of Oxford); Jackline Wahba
    Abstract: The Syrian refugee influx in Jordan came on top of an additional 1.6 million foreigners residing in Jordan. The non-national population of refugees and immigrants had increased Jordan’s population of 6.6 million by about 45%. This raises an important question on whether the inflow of refugees has displaced immigrants in the Jordanian labor market. In this paper, we use novel data from Jordan from before and after the Syrian refugee influx to test whether economic immigrants were affected by Syrian refugees. We address several threats to identifications: the selectivity of immigrants and the geographic sorting of immigrants and refugees within Jordan using instrumental variable approach. We find that, as a result of the Syrian refugee influx, immigrants were more likely to work in the informal sector, and they worked fewer hours and had lower total wages as a result. The results suggest that the main competition that occurred in the Jordanian labor market was not between refugees and natives, but rather between refugees and economic migrants.
    Date: 2018–05–10
  26. By: Bilal Malaeb (University of Southampton); Jackline Wahba
    Abstract: This paper provides overall evidence of the migration dynamics in Jordan between 2010 and 2016, during which the country experienced a large influx of Syrian refugees. This paper gives a detailed description of immigration in Jordan during that period in particular the composition, characteristics and labour market activities of immigrants in Jordan. It also examines the emigration and return migration patterns of Jordanians as well as the changes in their migration dynamics before and after the inflow of Syrian refugees. We find evidence of a fall in temporary international migration of Jordanians during this period. We also find that almost half of current emigrants have left Jordan with their entire family. Furthermore, we also find a decrease in return migration across the two years. When analysing data on immigrants, we find a change in immigrants’ geographical distribution in 2016 compared to 2010, with lower shares of immigrants in areas of high refugee population. Despite similar distribution across occupations of immigrants and refugees in 2016, we find lower immigrants’ share in sectors like manufacturing, in which refugees are concentrated. Immigrants themselves have increased their engagement in informal work and differed in occupations and economic activities from 2010 to 2016 suggesting that immigrants might have been affected by the refugee influx.
    Date: 2018–05–10

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