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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Ricardo Hausmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Julian Hinz; Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee status for affected people, it has been difficult to quantify the magnitude of this crisis. In this note we document how we use data from the social media service Twitter to measure the emigration of people from Venezuela. Using a simple statistical model that allows us to correct for a sampling bias in the data, we estimate that up to 2.9 million Venezuelans have left the country in the past year. |
| Keywords: | migration, social media |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:342&r=mig |
| By: | Jensen, Peter Sandholt; Radu, Cristina Victoria; Severgnini, Battista; Sharp, Paul |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence of how restrictions on labor mobility, such as serfdom and other types of labor coercion, impact labor market outcomes. To do so, we estimate the impact of a large negative shock to labor mobility in the form of the reintroduction of serfdom in Denmark in 1733, which was targeted at limiting the mobility of farmhands. Using a unique data source based on the archives of estates from the eighteenth century, we test whether serfdom affected the wages of farmhands more strongly than other groups in the labor market, and results based on a differences-in-differences approach reveal evidence consistent with a strong negative effect following its introduction. We also investigate whether one mechanism was that boys with rural backgrounds were prevented from taking up apprenticeships in towns, and find suggestive evidence that this was indeed the case. Thus, our results suggest that serfdom was effectively reducing mobility. |
| Keywords: | coercion; labor mobility; serfdom |
| JEL: | J3 N33 P4 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13303&r=mig |
| By: | Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; van den Heuvel, W. |
| Abstract: | The available aggregated data on the Atlantic slave trade in between 1519 and 1875 concern the numbers of slaves transported by a country and the numbers of slaves who arrived at various destinations (where one of the destinations is “deceased”). It is however unknown how many slaves, at an aggregate level, were transported to where and by whom, that is, we know the row and column totals, but we do not known the numbers in the cells of the matrix. In this paper we use a simple mathematical technique to fill in the void. It allows us to estimate the trends in the deceases per transporting country, and also to estimate the fraction of slaves who went to own colonies or to others. For example, we estimate that of all the slaves who were transported by the Dutch only about 7 percent went to Dutch colonies, whereas for the Portuguese this number is about 37 percent. |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:112486&r=mig |
| By: | Willert, Bianca |
| Abstract: | At present, most countries have officially ratified the ILO Convention concerning forced or compulsory labor; however, serfdom is still present in the twenty-first century. This paper addresses the questions of how situations of modern slavery arise and how oppressors select their victims. The analytical framework is a labor-market model in which masters and slaves are matched via a matching function. In contrast to the standard matching model, not the workers exert effort to find jobs but the employers exert effort to find and hire slaves. Workers are heterogeneous regarding their "slavability", which is ex-ante unknown to the potential employers. Employers exert effort to recruit slaves. The employer's decision whether and to what extent to engage in forced labor depends on governmental labor protection and on the probability of detection. Moreover, the model includes the possibility of bribery such that an employer can avoid sanctions if illicit behavior is detected. The model is solved and the impact of policy variables and other exogenous parameters on the firms' activities are investigated. |
| Keywords: | Coerced Labor,Modern Slavery,Matching |
| JEL: | J23 J47 J71 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:roswps:159&r=mig |
| By: | Giulia Galera (EURICSE); Leila Giannetto (EURICSE); Andrea Membretti; Antonella Noya (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether immigration can operate as a counter-process of depopulation and economic recession. Based on the comparative analysis of four case studies in Belluno (Italy), Klagenfurt-Villach (Austria), Dalarna (Sweden), and Haßberge (Germany), it analyses the key socio-economic factors explaining the successful integration of migrants, refugees, status holders and asylum seekers and examines under which conditions the arrival of newcomers can turn into a local development opportunity for these territories. The case studies feature four remote territories with the following common characteristics: they have undergone significant socio-economic transformations over the past decade, they face a population decline with an alarming outmigration of youth combined with an increasing ageing population, and central governments have channelled recent immigration and asylum seekers to peripheral areas to counterbalance negative demographic trends. Results show that integration paths undertaken by recipients differ significantly across the four territories. However, all case studies suggest that stable jobs and accommodations render remote and mountain localities attractive for refugees and status holders, who are usually more inclined to move to urban centres. Lastly, results from the case studies highlight the importance of designing individualised integration paths backed by social inclusion initiatives that can incite spontaneous collaborations and work relations with local inhabitants. |
| Keywords: | ageing, asylum-seekers, immigration, integration, migrants, refugees, social innovation |
| JEL: | H75 J08 J61 J68 L31 |
| Date: | 2018–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2018/03-en&r=mig |
| By: | Giulia Galera (EURICSE); Leila Giannetto (EURICSE); Antonella Noya (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Significant variation across and within OECD countries reflects the diverse roles that non-state actors can play in the reception and integration of asylum seekers. This variation can be explained by the differences in the organisation of welfare service delivery, the various national schemes supporting employment and the specific legal frameworks allowing for the labour market access of asylum seekers, along with the inclination of local inhabitants to self-organise to face new challenges. Within the wide spectrum of non-state actors that provide assistance to refugees and asylum seekers, this paper focuses specifically on third sector organisations. Through a survey, it assesses the contribution of these organisations during the refugee crisis in Europe, from 2014 to 2016, in delivering reception and integration policies for refugees, protection holders and asylum seekers and in experimenting with innovative approaches. The paper concludes with a number of policy recommendations on the ways governments leverage the innovative capacity of third sector organisations in providing meaningful and effective initiatives to integrate refugees in the society, labour market and economy of host communities. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, integration, non-profit organisations, non-state actors, refugees, social enterprises |
| JEL: | J61 L31 L33 L38 |
| Date: | 2018–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2018/02-en&r=mig |
| By: | NAKAGAWA Mariko |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze how skill transference from an origin to destination country, captured by lower productivity at the destination caused by differences in language use, affects international migration by skilled workers, using a multi-country NEG model proposed by Gasper et al. (2017). Specifically, our interest is to explain how less frictional countries in terms of linguistic communication such as those in the Anglosphere (English-speaking countries) attract more highly-skilled international migrants. The analysis based on asymmetric skill transference among countries, in which the world is divided into two groups, Anglosphere (English-speaking countries) and non-Anglosphere (non-English-speaking countries), finds that countries in the Anglosphere are more likely to be the industrial core attracting all skilled (and imperfectly mobile) workers than countries in the non-Anglosphere. Also, we find that less frictional migration from the non-Anglosphere to the Anglosphere always accelerates industrial agglomeration in the Anglosphere core country, while both less frictional migration within the Anglosphere and expanding the Anglosphere (an increase in the number of countries constituting the Anglosphere) do not always accelerate industrial agglomeration in the Anglosphere due to the market crowding effect. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:18083&r=mig |
| By: | Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac |
| Abstract: | Focusing on a selected group of 19 OECD countries, we analyze the effects of immigration on natives welfare, labor market outcomes and fiscal redistribution. To this end, we build and simulate a search and matching model that allows for endogenous natives skill acquisition and intergenerational transfers. The obtained results are then compared with different variations of our benchmark model, allowing us to assess to what extent natives skill adjustment and age composition affect the impact of immigration. Our comparative statics analysis suggests that when natives adjust their skill in response to immigration, they successfully avoid, under most scenarios, any potential displacement effect in the labor market. Moreover, taking into account age composition plays a key role in assessing the fiscal impact of immigration, which turns out to be positive when we include retired workers that receive intergenerational transfers. Finally, we find that, under any scenario, our model yields more optimistic welfare effects than a standard search model that abstracts from skill decision and intergenerational redistribution. These welfare effects are found to be overall particularly positive when the migration flows comprise high-skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Welfare, Unemployment, Skill Acquisition, Fiscal Redistribution. |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89897&r=mig |
| By: | Alimi, Omoniyi (University of Waikato); Maré, David C. (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust); Poot, Jacques (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1980s, income inequality in New Zealand has been a growing concern - particularly in metropolitan areas. At the same time, the encouragement of permanent and temporary immigration has led to the foreign-born accounting for a growing share of the population; this is disproportionally so in metropolitan areas. This paper investigates the impact of immigration, by skill level and length of stay, on the distribution of income in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. We apply decomposition methodologies to data obtained from the 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2013 Censuses of Population and Dwellings. We find that increases in the immigrant share of population in an area have an inequality-increasing and area-specific effect. Changes in immigrant-group-specific distributions of income are inequality reducing in non-metropolitan areas but inequality increasing in metropolitan areas. Inequality increased in metropolitan areas because the overall inequality-increasing effect of immigration is larger than the inequality-reducing changes for the New Zealand-born. The opposite is the case in non-metropolitan areas: the overall inequality-reducing change in the income distribution of the New Zealand born there is larger than the inequality-increasing effect of immigration. The methodologies adopted here can also benefit the study of income distribution changes in countries with similar immigration policies, such as Australia and Canada. |
| Keywords: | New Zealand, income inequality, international migration, metropolitan areas, decomposition methods |
| JEL: | D63 F22 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11959&r=mig |
| By: | Herbert Brücker (IAB); Albrecht Glitz (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Adrian Lerche (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Agnese Romiti (University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze how the formal recognition of immigrants’ foreign occupational qualifications affects their subsequent labor market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on a novel German data set that links respondents’ survey information to their administrative records, allowing us to observe immigrants at monthly intervals before, during and after their application for occupational recognition. Our findings show substantial employment and wage gains from occupational recognition. After three years, the full recognition of immigrants’ foreign qualifications increases their employment rates by 24.5 percentage points and raises their hourly wages by 19.8 percent relative to immigrants without recognition. We show that the increase in employment is largely driven by a higher propensity to work in regulated occupations. Relating our findings to the economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany, we further document that occupational recognition leads to substantially faster convergence of immigrants’ earnings to those of their native counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Recognition, Immigrants, Labor Markets |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J44 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1818&r=mig |
| By: | Tigran Poghosyan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes regional labor mobility in Finland using two complementary empirical approaches: a VAR proposed by Blanchard and Katz (1992) and a gravity model. The results point to a relatively limited regional labor mobility in Finland compared to the U.S. and to EU peers. The limited regional labor mobility is associated with persistent unemployment differentials across regions. Some impediments to regional labor mobility are exogenous, such as large geographical distances across regions and relatively sparse population density, and explain about 23 percent of the variation in labor mobility. Others can be influenced by policy, such as further increase in wage flexibiltiy and reduction of housing costs. These impediments explain about 60 percent of the variation in labor mobility. Greater regional labor mobility could help reduce regional unemployment differentials, improve job matching efficiency, and remove pressures from regional fiscal redistribution. |
| Date: | 2018–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/252&r=mig |
| By: | Sato, Yasuhiro; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We develop a model in which ethnic minorities can either assimilate to the majority's norm or reject it by trading off higher productivity and wages with a greater social distance to their culture of origin. We show that "oppositional" minorities reside in more segregated areas, have worse outcomes (in terms of income) but are not necessary worse off in terms of welfare than assimilated minorities who live in less segregated areas. We find that a policy that reduces transportation cost decreases rather than increases assimilation in cities. We also find that when there are more productivity spillovers between the two groups, ethnic minorities are more likely not to assimilate and to reject the majority's norm. Finally, we show that ethnic minorities tend to assimilate more in bigger and more expensive cities. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; cities; Ethnic identity; welfare |
| JEL: | J15 R14 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13364&r=mig |
| By: | Inwood, Kris; Minns, Chris; Summerfield, Fraser |
| Abstract: | Little evidence is available to assess the effect of substituting occupation-based income scores for individual incomes before 1940. The example of immigrant assimilation in Canada 1911-1931 reveals differences in the extent and even the direction of assimilation depending on whether income scores are used and how the occupational income score is constructed. Given the increasingly wide use of income scores, we summarize a number of procedures to address the limitations associated with the absence of individual level income variation. An adjustment of conventional income scores for either group earnings differences and/or intertemporal change using summary information for broad groups of occupations reduces the deviation between scores and actual incomes. |
| JEL: | J01 J11 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:91317&r=mig |
| By: | Alberto Alesina; Michela Carlana; Eliana La Ferrara; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | If individuals become aware of their stereotypes, do they change their behavior? We study this question in the context of teachers’ bias in grading immigrants and native children in middle schools. Teachers give lower grades to immigrant students compared to natives who have the same performance on standardized, blindly-graded tests. We then relate differences in grading to teachers’ stereotypes, elicited through an Implicit Association Test (IAT). We find that math teachers with stronger stereotypes give lower grades to immigrants compared to natives with the same performance. Literature teachers do not differentially grade immigrants based on their own stereotypes. Finally, we share teachers’ own IAT score with them, randomizing the timing of disclosure around the date on which they assign term grades. All teachers informed of their stereotypes before term grading increase grades assigned to immigrants. Revealing stereotypes may be a powerful intervention to decrease discrimination, but it may also induce a reaction from individuals who were not acting in a biased way. |
| JEL: | F5 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25333&r=mig |
| By: | Frattini, Tommaso; Meschi, Elena |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on how the presence of immigrant peers in the classroom affects native student achievement. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative data on two cohorts of vocational training students in Italy's largest region. Vocational training institutions provide the ideal setting for studying these effects because they attract not only disproportionately high shares of immigrants but also the lowest ability native students. We adopt a value added model, and exploit within-school variation both within and across cohorts for identification. Our results show small negative average effects on maths test scores that are larger for low ability native students, strongly non-linear and only observable in classes with a high (top 20%) immigrant concentration. These outcomes are driven by classes with a high average linguistic distance between immigrants and natives, with no apparent additional role played by ethnic diversity. |
| Keywords: | education; ethnic diversity; Immigration; linguistic distance; peer effects |
| JEL: | I20 J15 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13305&r=mig |
| By: | Christopher L. House; Christian Proebsting; Linda L. Tesar |
| Abstract: | Unemployment differentials are bigger in Europe than in the United States. Migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in Europe. Mundell (1961) argued that factor mobility is a precondition for a successful currency union. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration and search frictions to quantify the benefits of increased labor mobility in Europe and compare this outcome to a case of fully flexible exchange rates. Labor mobility and flexible exchange rates both work to reduce unemployment and per capita GDP differentials across countries provided that monetary policy is sufficiently responsive to national output. |
| JEL: | E24 E42 E52 E58 F15 F16 F22 F33 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25347&r=mig |
| By: | Andreas Beerli; Jan Ruffner; Michael Siegenthaler; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | We study a reform that granted European cross-border workers free access to the Swiss labor market. Our Differences-in-Differences estimations leverage the fact that regions close to the border were affected more intensely and earlier. The greater availability of cross-border workers increased their employment but also wages and possibly employment of highly educated native workers although the new cross-border workers were also highly educated. The reason is a simultaneous increase in labor demand in skill-intensive firms: the reform increased the size, productivity, innovation performance of some incumbent firms, attracted new firms, and created opportunities for natives to pursue managerial jobs. |
| JEL: | F22 J22 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25302&r=mig |
| By: | Casari, Marco (University of Bologna); Ichino, Andrea (European University Institute); Michaeli, Moti (University of Haifa); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Marandola, Ginevra (University of Bologna); Scoppa, Vincenzo (University of Calabria) |
| Abstract: | Migration may cause not only a brain drain but also a civicness drain, leading to an uncivicness trap. We study this possibility using college choices of southern-Italian students classified as Civic if not cheating in a die-roll experiment. Local civicness is the fraction of Civic in their high-school class. A civicness drain is observed at high and low local civicness. We explain this finding in a model in which Civic and Uncivic types balance hope vs. fear of migration outcomes, taking into account economic gains, risk preferences, and their beliefs about being considered Civic in the place of destination. |
| Keywords: | migration, Italy, honesty game, experiments, social capital |
| JEL: | H J6 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11955&r=mig |
| By: | Narciso, Gaia; Severgnini, Battista; Vardanyan, Gayane |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how negative historical shocks can explain migration in the long-run. We construct a unique dataset based on the early 20th century Irish Census data and a selection of the Ellis Island Administrative Records which allow us to test whether the Great Irish Famine (1845-1850), one of the most lethal starvation in history, has shaped the decision of migrating to the USA in the following 70 years. We control for several set of individual and geographical characteristics and we find that the Irish Famine was an important significant driver of individuals’ migration choices. Instrumental variable analysis based on the exogenous spread of the potato blight provides consistent results. |
| Keywords: | Mass migration,negative shock,long-run impact,Great Famine |
| JEL: | F22 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:187690&r=mig |
| By: | Góra, Marek (Warsaw School of Economics); Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Anna (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Pension reforms, which imply a reduction in the generosity of pension benefits, are becoming widespread in response to the demographic transition. The scale, the timing, and the pace of these reforms vary across countries. In this theoretical article, authors analyse individual migration decisions, by adding a component linked to the expected old-age pension benefits in sending and receiving countries in two cases: when the pension system rules are known, and when there is a risk of the pension systems reforms. The results indicate that when individuals fail to take future pension wealth into account, they can make sub-optimal migration decisions. |
| Keywords: | migration decision, pension benefits, pension reforms, institutional uncertainty |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J26 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11960&r=mig |
| By: | Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas; Lodefalk, Magnus |
| Abstract: | Does anti-migration sentiment threaten internationalization? One major pro-Brexit argument was that it would enable more control over immigration. The most recent US presidential election also focused on immigration. Anti-migration sentiment could be a threat to internationalization, given that migrants can help lower the costs of internationalization. Since trade contributes to economic growth, this could, in turn, impede economic development. Despite extensive literature on the migration-trade nexus, there are few examples of policymakers highlighting the role of migration for internationalization. One possible explanation is the absence of an accessible survey of the available theory and evidence on this relationship, and this article intends to bridge the gap. We review and discuss over 100 papers published on the subject, from pioneering country-level studies to nascent firm-level studies that utilize employer-employee data. To our knowledge, this is the first paper offering a wide-ranging review of the different strands of theory on the relationship between migration and internationalization, as well as new empirical findings. Although the evidence suggests that migration can facilitate internationalization we also note substantial gaps and inconsistencies in the extant literature. The aim of this article is to encourage future research and assist policymakers in their efforts to promote internationalization. |
| Keywords: | Migration,networks,information,trade,foreign direct investment |
| JEL: | D20 D80 F14 F16 F22 F23 J61 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:287&r=mig |
| By: | Dany Bahar; Andreas Hauptmann; Cem Özgüzel; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | During the early 1990s Germany received over half a million Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many of these refugees, who were under temporary protection, had been repatriated. We exploit this historical episode to provide causal evidence on the role that migrants play explaining export performance in global markets after returning to their home country. We find that the elasticity of exports to return migration is between 0.1 to 0.24 in industries where migrants were employed during their stay in Germany. In order to deal with endogeneity we use historic exogenous rules of allocation of asylum seekers across different German states to construct an instrumental variable for the treatment. The results are mostly driven by knowledge-intensive industries, and by workers in occupations intensive in analytical and managerial skills. |
| Keywords: | migration, refugees, knowledge diffusion, management, exports, productivity |
| JEL: | F14 F22 O33 D83 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7371&r=mig |
| By: | Caoimhe Rice (University of Bristol & University of York); Judit Vall Castelló (Universitat de Barcelona & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a change in the public healthcare entitlement of undocumented migrants in Spain to investigate the causal link between withdrawal of healthcare and changes in help-seeking behaviour of women experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV). We contribute to the new literature modelling domestic violence by taking a novel look at the role of human capital in decisions to seek help when in violent relationships. We use a difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology to compare the number of foreign applicants for protection orders before and after the reform using Spanish applicants as the counterfactual. The impact of the reform was immediate; foreign applicants decreased by 16% after the health policy reform was introduced and this drop amounts to 19% in areas with stronger enforcement of the reform. We perform several robustness checks including addressing potential bias from migration changes after the reform. Our findings are important for current policy discussions on granting/limiting access to public programs for the undocumented population. We provide evidence that restricted access to the healthcare system can have unintended negative consequences for the most vulnerable groups of the population with potentially important spill-over effects to the next generation. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Violence, Healthcare Access, Undocumented Migrants |
| JEL: | I12 I18 H51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2018-22&r=mig |