nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2018‒07‒09
seventeen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Social distance, immigrant integration, and welfare chauvinism in Sweden By Goldschmidt, Tina; Rydgren, Jens
  2. Has Eastern European Migration Impacted UK-born Workers? By Becker, Sascha O.; Fetzer, Thiemo
  3. Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers By Becker, Sascha O.; Grosfeld, Irena; Grosjean, Pauline; Voigtländer, Nico; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  4. Immigration and the Reallocation of Work Health Risks By Giuntella, Osea; Mazzonna, Fabrizio; Nicodemo, Catia; Vargas-Silva, Carlos
  5. Skill Selection and American Immigration Policy in the Interwar Period By Alexander A. J. Wulfers
  6. The Changing Structure of Immigration to the OECD: What Welfare Effects on Member Countries? By Michal Burzynski; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport
  7. Economic Shocks and Internal Migration By Monras, Joan
  8. Opportunistic Migration: A Collateral Promise for Development in Seasonal Migration of Southwest Coastal Bangladesh By Md Mostafizur Rahman; Mahmud Uz Zaman; Ali Haider
  9. Linguistic Distance, Languages of Work and Wages of Immigrants in Montreal By Ibrahim Bousmah; Gilles Grenier; David Gray
  10. Analyzing Decisiveness of Migration Intentions: Social Kinship that Matters By Aubrey D. Tabuga
  11. Heterogeneous Effects of Migration on Child Welfare: Empirical Evidence from Viet Nam By Morgan, Peter J.; Trinh, Long Q.
  12. The Effect of Skilled Emigration on Real Exchange Rates through the Wage Channel By Ouyang, Alice Y.; Paul, Saumik
  13. The Effect of Emigration on Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Central Asia and South Caucasus By Paul, Saumik
  14. Economic Reasoning with a Racial Hue: Is the Immigration Consensus Purely Race Neutral? By Malhotra, Neil; Newman, Benjamin
  15. Fighting Mobile Crime. By Rosario Crinò; Giovanni Immordino; Salvatore Piccolo
  16. Measuring Venezuelan emigration with Twitter By Hausmann, Ricardo; Hinz, Julian; Yildirim, Muhammed A.
  17. Ageing, the socioeconomic burden, labour market and migration. The Chinese case in an international perspective By Bruni, Michele

  1. By: Goldschmidt, Tina; Rydgren, Jens
    Abstract: Populist radical right-wing parties across Europe garner support for welfare chauvinistic promises to limit government spending on immigrants and focus on natives' welfare instead. However, most research on the so-called immigration-welfare nexus does not study welfare chauvinism but instead focuses on generalized support for the welfare state. Using Swedish register-linked survey data from 2013, we study three hypothetical pathways into welfare chauvinism: via ethnic prejudice, operationalized as a desire for social distance; via the direct experience of immigrant unemployment and putative welfare receipt in the neighborhood context; and via immigrant competition at the workplace. Based on our sample of native-born Swedes, we find that both negative prejudice and the share of unemployed immigrants among the neighborhood population provide two distinct and independent routes into chauvinism, while workplace competition does not.
    Keywords: welfare chauvinism,government spending,immigration,integration,prejudice,Sweden
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: The 2004 accession of 8 Eastern European countries to the European Union (EU) was accompanied by fears of mass migration. The United Kingdom - unlike many other EU countries - did not opt for temporary restrictions on the EU’s free movement of labour. We document that following EU accession more than 1 million people (ca. 3% of the UK working age population) migrated from Eastern Europe to the UK. We show that they mostly settled in places that had limited prior exposure to immigration. We provide evidence that these areas subsequently saw smaller wage growth at the lower end of the wage distribution and increased pressure on the welfare state, housing and public services. Using novel geographically disaggregated data by country-of-origin, we measure the effects of Eastern European migration on these outcomes for the UK-born and different groups of immigrants. Our results are important in the context of the UK’s Brexit referendum and the ongoing EU withdrawal negotiations in which migration features as a key issue.
    Keywords: Political Economy ; Migration ; Globalization ; EU
    JEL: R23 N44 Z13
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Becker, Sascha O.; Grosfeld, Irena; Grosjean, Pauline; Voigtländer, Nico; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asse - human capital. The effects persist over three generations.
    Keywords: Forced Migration; Human Capital; Poland; Uprootedness
    JEL: D74 I25 N33 N34
    Date: 2018–06
  4. By: Giuntella, Osea; Mazzonna, Fabrizio; Nicodemo, Catia; Vargas-Silva, Carlos
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of immigration on the allocation of occupational physical burden and work injury risks. Using data for England and Wales from the Labour Force Survey (2003-2013), we find that, on average, immigration leads to a reallocation of UK-born workers towards jobs characterized by lower physical burden and injury risk. The results also show important differences across skill groups. Immigration reduces the average physical burden of UK-born workers with medium levels of education, but has no significant effect on those with low levels. We also find that that immigration led to an improvement selfreported measures of native workers’ health. These findings, together with the evidence that immigrants report lower injury rates than natives, suggest that the reallocation of tasks could reduce overall health care costs and the human and financial costs typically associated with workplace injuries.
    Keywords: Immigration,labor-market,physical burden,work-related injuries,health
    JEL: J61 I10
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Alexander A. J. Wulfers
    Abstract: Abstract The Age of Mass Migration came to an end in the interwar period with new American immigration restrictions, but did this end affect some potential migrants more than others? I use previously unanalysed data from passenger lists of ships leaving Bremen, one of the major European ports of emigration, between 1920 and 1933, to identify occupations and skill levels of individual migrants. The main focus of the paper is on the role that policy played in influencing the selection of migrants. I study the American quota laws of 1921, 1924, and 1929, and find that increasingly strict quotas led to an increase in the skill level of migrants as well as a shift from agricultural to manufacturing workers first, and from manufacturing to professional workers later.
    Keywords: immigration policy, skill selection, quotas, United States, Bremen, interwar period
    JEL: J15 N32 N34
    Date: 2018–01–25
  6. By: Michal Burzynski; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport
    Abstract: We investigate the welfare implications of two pre-crisis immigration waves (1991–2000 and 2001–2010) and of the post-crisis wave (2011–2015) for OECD native citizens. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the main channels of transmission of immigration shocks – the employment and wage effects, the fiscal effect, and the market size effect – and for the interactions between them. We parameterize our model for 20 selected OECD member states. We find that the three waves induce positive effects on the real income of natives, however the size of these gains varies considerably across countries and across skill groups. In relative terms, the post-crisis wave induces smaller welfare gains compared to the previous ones. This is due to the changing origin mix of immigrants, which translates into lower levels of human capital and smaller fiscal gains. However, differences across cohorts explain a tiny fraction of the highly persistent, cross-country heterogeneity in the economic benefits from immigration.
    Keywords: Immigration;Welfare;Crisis;Inequality;General Equilibrium
    JEL: C68 F22 J24
    Date: 2018–06
  7. By: Monras, Joan
    Abstract: Internal migration can respond to local shocks through either changes in in- or out-migration rates. This paper documents that most of the response of internal migration is accounted for by variation in in-migration. I develop and estimate a parsimonious general equilibrium dynamic spatial model around this fact. I then use the model to evaluate the speed of convergence and long run change in welfare across metropolitan areas given the heterogeneous incidence of the Great Recession at the local level. The paper shows that while there are some lasting effects of the Great Recession across locations, at least 60 percent of the initial differences potentially dissipate across space within around 10 years. This is true even when locals from the most affected metropolitan areas do not out-migrate in higher proportions in response to local shocks.
    Keywords: Internal migration and local labor market dynamics
    JEL: F22 J20 J30 J43 J61 R23 R58
    Date: 2018–06
  8. By: Md Mostafizur Rahman (Macquarie University, NSW); Mahmud Uz Zaman (Khulna University, Bangladesh); Ali Haider (Khulna University, Bangladesh)
    Abstract: Aligning with the broader discussion of migration, seasonal migration also resembled a multifold phenomenon ranging from reasons of temporal movement to settling down process at the place of destination. In this paper, seasonal migration was portrayed in between the ‘alarmists’ view and ‘skeptic’ view of migration, holding a new position called ‘opportunistic migration’ that seemed to offer benefits to the seasonal migrants characterizing by gaining social knowledge and earning money from the place of destination. The empirical data, face-to-face in-depth interviews, showed that both social and economic aspects of seasonal migration were dominated by the pull factors, and environmental aspects were linked with the push factors. This paper also highlighted that social network played an active role for seasonal migrants, in particular, the workers who seasonally migrated into the brickfields of southwest coastal Bangladesh. While migrating from the rural to the urban context, two-tier verbal agreements took place in between the brickfield owners with the contractors, and the contractors with the brickfield workers. Though those verbal agreements seemed to contain some extent of the failure of expectations by the above-mentioned actors related to seasonal migration, it also held optimism of development for every actor. Finally, this paper reused the term ‘collateral promise’ with a slighter social tone to understand the informal interactions among the employers, contractors, and the seasonal migrants.
    Keywords: Seasonal migration, social network, collateral promise, and qualitative method
    Date: 2018–05
  9. By: Ibrahim Bousmah (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Gilles Grenier (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); David Gray (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)
    Abstract: We use the Levenshtein linguistic distance measure to explore whether the distance between an immigrant’s mother tongue and a Canadian official language (English or French) has an impact on his/her economic integration into the labour market. Using microdata from the master files of the 2001 and 2006 Canadian censuses and from the 2011 National Household Survey, we investigate the relationship between linguistic distance and the intensity of use of English and French at work in the Montreal metropolitan area. That region is characterized by the presence of sizeable French and English speaking communities, as well as of a large number of immigrants from a wide variety of linguistic backgrounds. Those elements of linguistic diversity interact in the context of English being the lingua franca. We find that linguistic distances between immigrants’ mother tongues and English and French have an important impact on the relative intensities of use of the two Canadian official languages at work. We further investigate the role of the languages used at work on the earnings of immigrants by estimating earnings functions. We find that the use of both French and English are remunerated in the labour market, but that using English at work has a larger impact on earnings.
    Keywords: Linguistic distance, language of work, immigrants, Montreal, Canada, earnings.
    JEL: C21 C25 J01 J15 J31
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Aubrey D. Tabuga
    Abstract: Analyzing future migration intentions is essential to understanding how migration perpetuates. International migration is such a complex and nuanced phenomenon that those who desire to participate in it go through an elaborate process of intention-formation, planning, and decisionmaking. And yet the literature on migration intentions rarely view it in such manner. Instead, many studies treat migration decisionmaking as a binary stay-or-leave variable. Moreover, the lens more commonly implemented is economic; there is less focus on the social dimensions of migration decisions. This analysis seeks to explain the influence of social networks on the decisiveness to migrate while controlling for the effects of economic forces, subjective perceptions on well-being, and demographic factors. Using information gathered from individuals residing within a village with high migration incidence, this study found that differentiating migrant networks into the degree of association or strength of ties is crucial because different networks have different effects. Furthermore, considering the individuals’ current level in the migration decisionmaking process is also deemed crucial in analyzing the factors that influence the decision. For instance, migrant networks particularly the closest of kin are important in the advanced phase of concrete migration planning, and not in the initial stage. Know more about the results of the study in this paper.
    Keywords: migration, , migration intention, migration decisionmaking, Philippine migration, generalized ordered logit, tie strength, social networks
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Morgan, Peter J. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Trinh, Long Q. (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We examine the heterogeneous effect of migration on left-behind children’s education and labor in Viet Nam. Since decisions to attend school and to work are jointly determined, we use a simultaneous equation modeling approach to estimate the effect of migration on child education and labor. Since migration also affects household welfare, we also integrate household welfare into our system of equations. We use a unique household-level data set collected in 2012 and 2014 in rural Viet Nam. We find that migration of other family members does not affect a child’s decision to attend school directly, but does so indirectly through an increase in time spent at work. However, migration might increase household income, and this may also have a positive effect on child education and reduce child labor. We also find some heterogeneous effects by type of migration (migration for education and migration for work purposes) as well as effects of sending money to migrants and receiving money from migrants on household income, child labor, and ultimately child education.
    Keywords: child education; child labor; child welfare; migration; Viet Nam
    JEL: D01 D13 J13
    Date: 2018–04–25
  12. By: Ouyang, Alice Y. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Building on an analytical model, we provide cross-country empirical evidence that net skilled emigration appreciates bilateral real exchange rates through the wage channel in source countries. Chains of causality in the presence of the Law of One Price run through the “spending effect” and the “resource allocation effect,” analogous to the remittance-based Dutch disease effect. A pricing-to-market model allows pass-through for both traded and nontraded prices when the Law of One Price is violated. The skilled emigration elasticity of real exchange rate is estimated to be in the range of between .6 and .8, with internal prices playing a dominant role. Alternative model specifications show robust outcomes.
    Keywords: emigration; exchange rate; the Dutch disease
    JEL: F22 F31
    Date: 2018–03–16
  13. By: Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Using a novel data set, this paper find that households with migrants experience a 26% drop in the labor force participation rate in four economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan) from the Central Asia and South Caucasus region. It is twice as large for households with permanent migrants as for households with seasonal migrants. The results do not alter in the presence of selection on unobservables, model misspecification, and selection bias due to the absence of more productive workers. Direct evidence on the remittances that each household received is not available. The empirical findings do, however, suggest the possibility of an increase in reservation wages.
    Keywords: emigration; labor mobility
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2018–03–15
  14. By: Malhotra, Neil (University of California, Riverside); Newman, Benjamin (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Leading research is converging upon the finding that citizens from immigrant-receiving nations strongly prefer the entry of high-skilled to low-skilled immigrants. Prior studies have largely interpreted this "skill premium" as deriving from sociotropic economic considerations. We argue that a purely economic conceptualization offers an incomplete understanding of the processes generating the skill premium, as it overlooks the role of prejudice as a factor undergirding citizens' preferences. We contend that the skill premium is a manifestation of prejudice insomuch as it constitutes a preference for those atypical of the existing immigrant population. Through re-analysis of data from published work, as well as via original survey experiments, we demonstrate that a purely economic interpretation of the skill premium fails a range of critical tests. Our findings suggest that rather than solely representing a race-neutral preference for skilled immigrants, the skill premium partly represents a preference against disliked prevalent immigrants.
    Date: 2017–08
  15. By: Rosario Crinò (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Giovanni Immordino; Salvatore Piccolo
    Abstract: We develop a model in which two countries choose their enforcement levels non- cooperatively, in order to deter native and foreign individuals from committing crime in their territory. We assume that crime is mobile, both ex ante (migration) and ex post (eeing), and that criminals who hide abroad after having committed a crime in a country must be extradited back. We show that, when extradition is not too costly, countries overinvest in enforcement compared to the cooperative outcome: insourcing foreign criminals is more costly than paying the extradition cost. By contrast, when extradition is sufficiently costly, a large enforcement may induce criminals to ee the country in which they have perpetrated a crime. Surprisingly, the fear of extraditing criminals enables countries to coordinate on the efficient (cooperative) outcome.
    Keywords: Crime, Enforcement, Extradition, Fleeing, Migration.
    JEL: K14 K42
    Date: 2018–06
  16. By: Hausmann, Ricardo; Hinz, Julian; Yildirim, Muhammed A.
    Abstract: Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee status for affected people, it has been difficult to quantify the magnitude of this crisis. In this note we document how we use data from the social media service Twitter to measure the emigration of people from Venezuela. Using a simple statistical model that allows us to correct for a sampling bias in the data, we estimate that up to 2,9 million Venezuelans have left the country in the past year.
    Keywords: migration,social media
    JEL: F22
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Bruni, Michele
    Abstract: China still lags behind Europe along the path of the demographic transition and therefore is still much younger. However, due to the speed with which the fertility rate dropped and life expectancy increased, China ageing process will proceed at a very fast space and around the middle of the century the population of China is projected to be as old as that of France and the UK and older than that of the USA. The paper tries to evaluate the labour market and welfare implications of this process, also by an economic indicator of dependency and socioeconomic burden.
    Keywords: Ageing,China,EU,dependency indicators,technological change,migrations
    JEL: J11 J14 J21 F22 O33
    Date: 2018

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