nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2018‒03‒12
twenty-one papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography By Thu Hien Dao; Frédéric Docquier; Mathilde Maurel; Pierre Schaus
  2. Understanding the Effects of Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants By Elias, Ferran; Monras, Joan; Vázquez Grenno, Javier
  3. Economic assimilation of immigrants arriving from highly developed countries: The case of German immigrants in Sweden and the US By Haberfeld, Yitchak; Birgier, Debora Pricila; Lund, Christer; Elldér, Erik
  4. (The Struggle for) Refugee Integration into the Labour Market: Evidence from Europe By Fasani, Francesco; Frattini, Tommaso; Minale, Luigi
  5. Birthplace Diversity and Economic Growth: Evidence from the US States in the Post-World War II Period By Frédéric Docquier; Riccardo Turati; Jérôme Valette; Chrysovalantis Vasilakis
  6. The economic effects of refugee return By Dadush, Uri
  7. Following in their footsteps: an analysis of the impact of successive migration on rural household welfare in Ghana By Eva-Maria Egger; Julie Litchfield
  8. Optimal Education Policy and Human Capital Accumulation in the Context of Brain Drain By Slobodan Djajić; Frédéric Docquier; Michael S. Michael
  9. Two and a half million Syrian refugees, skill mix and capital intensity By Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; Torun, Huzeyfe
  10. Doubling Up or Moving Out? The Effect of International Labor Migration on Household Size By Gatskova, Kseniia; Kozlov, Vladimir
  11. Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration By Jaeger, David A; Ruist, Joakim; Stuhler, Jan
  12. The Native-Migrant Gap in the Progression into and through Upper-Secondary Education By Stefan C. Wolter; Maria Zumbuehl
  13. Regional Integration: Do intra-African trade and migration improve income in Africa? By Blaise Gnimassoun
  14. Job market outcomes of IDPs: the case of Georgia By Karine Torosyan; Norberto Pignatti; Maksym Obrizan
  15. Diaspora externalities: A view from the South By Hillel Rapoport
  16. Understanding the effect of international remittances on undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial model approach By Hamed Sambo
  17. Cultural Change and the Migration Choice By Mauro Lanati
  18. Firms Left Behind: Emigration and Firm Productivity By Yvonne Giesing; Nadzeya Laurentsyeva
  19. Is the education of local children influenced by living nearby a refugee camp? Evidence from host communities in Rwanda By Özge Bilgili; Sonja Fransen; Craig Loschmann; Melissa Siegel
  20. The Geography of Talent: Development Implications and Long-Run Prospects By Michal burzynski; Christoph Deuster; Frédéric Docquier
  21. Do Natives' Beliefs About Refugees' Education Level Affect Attitudes Toward Refugees? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments By Philipp Lergetporer; Marc Piopiunik; Lisa Simon

  1. By: Thu Hien Dao (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and University of Bielefeld, Department of Economics, Germany); Frédéric Docquier (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), FNRS, National Fund for Scientific Research, Belgium and FERDI, Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Developpement International, France); Mathilde Maurel (FERDI, Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Developpement International, France and CES, Centre d'economie de la Sorbonne, Universite de Paris 1, France); Pierre Schaus (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Computer Science & Engineering)
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century, for two skill groups, and for all relevant pairs of countries. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct a backcasting exercise which demonstrates that our model fits the past trends in international migration very well, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. We then describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with backcasts, our world migration prospects and emigration rates from developing countries are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes: they are virtually insensitive to the technological environment. As far as OECD countries are concerned, we predict a highly robust increase in immigration pressures in general (from 12 in 2010 to 17-19% in 2050 and 25-28% in 2100), and in European immigration in particular (from 15% in 2010 to 23-25% in 2050 and 36-39% in 2100). Using development policies to curb these pressures requires triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants countries of origin. Increasing migration is therefore a likely phenomenon for the 21st century, and this raises societal and political challenges for most industrialized countries.
    Keywords: international migration, migration prospects, world economy, inequality
    JEL: F22 F24 J11 J61 O15
    Date: 2018–02–20
  2. By: Elias, Ferran; Monras, Joan; Vázquez Grenno, Javier
    Abstract: This paper investigates the consequences of the legalization of around 600,000 immigrants by the unexpectedly elected Spanish government of Zapatero following the terrorist attacks of March 2004 (Montalvo, 2011). Using detailed data from payroll-tax revenues, we estimate that each newly legalized immigrant increased local payroll-tax revenues by 4,189 euros on average. This estimate is only 55 percent of what we would have expected from the size of the influx of newly documented immigrants, which suggests that newly legalized immigrants probably earned lower wages than other workers and maybe affected the labor-market outcomes of those other workers. We estimate that the policy change deteriorated the labor-market outcomes of some low-skilled natives and immigrants and improved the outcomes of high-skilled natives and immigrants. This led some low-skilled immigrants to move away from high-immigrant locations. Correcting for internal migration and selection, we obtain that each newly legalized immigrant increased payroll-tax revenues by 4,801 euros, or 15 percent more than the estimates from local raw payroll-tax revenue data. This shows the importance of looking both at public revenue data and the labor market to understand the consequences of amnesty programs fully.
    Keywords: Immigration; public policy; undocumented immigrants
    JEL: F22 J31 J61 R11
    Date: 2018–02
  3. By: Haberfeld, Yitchak (Department of Labor Studies, Tel-Aviv University); Birgier, Debora Pricila (Department of Labor Studies, Tel Aviv University; Department of Econonomy and Society, University of Gothenburg); Lund, Christer (Department of Economy and Society, University of Gothenburg); Elldér, Erik (Department of Economy and Society, University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: Migration across well-developed countries has been overlooked in the immigration literature. The present study is designed to evaluate the interplay between the effects of host countries' characteristics and self-selection patterns of immigrants from a highly developed country on their economic assimilation in other developed countries. We focus on immigrants originated from Germany during 1990–2000 who migrated to Sweden and the US. We use the 5 percent 2000 Public Use Microdata files (PUMS) of the US census and a pooled file of the 2005–2007 American Community Survey, and the 2000 and 2006 Swedish Registers. We analyze eight groups of German immigrants – by country of desti¬nation (the US/ Sweden), gender, and skill level (with/without an acade¬mic degree). The results show that almost all German immigrants reached full earnings assimilation with natives of similar observed attributes, and that the assimilation of highly skilled Germans was better than that of the low skilled. We also found that the skilled immigrants were compensated for their human capital acquired in Germany prior to their migration. Finally, we find that despite higher educational levels of the Germans that headed to Sweden, the better assimilation of German immigrants, especially the highly educated, took place in the US. The better assimilation of Germans in the US was probably the result of an interaction between the Germans’ pattern of self-selection (mainly on un¬observed attributes) and the US context of reception – mainly higher returns on their observed human capital in the US.
    Keywords: highly-skilled immigrants; immigrants self-selection; immigrants economic assimilation; highly-developed source countries
    JEL: J15 J16 J18 J31 J44
    Date: 2017–12–12
  4. By: Fasani, Francesco; Frattini, Tommaso; Minale, Luigi
    Abstract: In this paper, we use repeated cross-sectional survey data to study the labour market performance of refugees across several EU countries and over time. In the first part, we document that labour market outcomes for refugees are consistently worse than those for other comparable migrants. The gap remains sizeable even after controlling for individual characteristics as well as for unobservables using a rich set of fixed effects and interactions between area of origin, entry cohort and destination country. Refugees are 11.6 percent less likely to have a job and 22.1 percent more likely to be unemployed than migrants with similar characteristics. Moreover, their income, occupational quality and labour market participation are also relatively weaker. This gap persists until about 10 years after immigration. In the second part, we assess the role of asylum policies in explaining the observed refugee gap. We conduct a difference-in-differences analysis that exploits the differential timing of dispersal policy enactment across European countries: we show that refugee cohorts exposed to these polices have persistently worse labour market outcomes. Further, we find that entry cohorts admitted when refugee status recognition rates are relatively high integrate better into the host country labour market.
    Keywords: Assimilation; asylum policies; asylum seekers; refugee gap
    JEL: F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Frédéric Docquier (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), FNRS, National Fund for Scientific Research and FERDI, Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Developpement International, France); Riccardo Turati (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Jérôme Valette (CERDI, University Clermont Auvergne, CNRS (France)); Chrysovalantis Vasilakis (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and Bangor Business School (United Kingdom))
    Abstract: This paper empirically revisits the impact of birthplace diversity on economic growth. We use panel data on US states over the 1960-2010 period. This rich data set allows us to better deal with endogeneity issues and to conduct a large set of robustness checks. Our results suggest that diversity among college-educated immigrants positively affects economic growth. We provide converging evidence pointing at the existence of skill complementarities between workers trained in different countries. These synergies result in better labor market outcomes for native workers and in higher productivity in the R&D sector. The gains from diversity are maximized when immigrants originate from economically or culturally distant countries (but not both), and when they acquired part of their secondary education abroad and their college education in the US. Overall, a 10% increase in high-skilled diversity raises GDP per capita by about 6%. On the contrary, low-skilled diversity has insignificant effects.
    Keywords: Immigration, Culture, Birthplace Diversity, Growth
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2018–02–20
  6. By: Dadush, Uri
    Abstract: The recent surge in the number of forcibly displaced persons who cross international borders in search of protection has prompted interest in evaluating policies that achieve the possible "end points" of the phenomenon. As envisaged by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), these are the integration of the forcibly displaced persons in the country of destination, relocation in a third country, and return to the country of origin. The focus of this brief is on the third aspect, namely the appropriate conduct of return policy viewed from the perspective of the host country and, although the vast majority of forcibly displaced people are found in developing countries, the object here are policies in advanced countries.
    Keywords: refugees,return,migration,integration,displacement,forced,repatriation,deportation
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Eva-Maria Egger; Julie Litchfield
    Abstract: The decision to migrate is often influenced by the experience of earlier migrants from one’s household. Earlier migrants provide information on likely opportunities and potential risks and can offer support at destination to later migrants. We explore patterns of migration within rural households and the impact that these later migrants have on household welfare outcomes. Specifically, we use a household panel survey collected in 2013 and 2015 in rural areas of Ghana. We exploit the panel nature of the data and a weighting method to overcome sources of bias. Welfare is measured with an asset index of housing quality. We find that more recent or ‘new’ migrants are more likely to be from a younger generation, they face lower migration costs, and few of them remit. We find no effect of sending a new migrant on the asset index. We conclude that the different nature of migration of new migrants implies neither an economic gain for the household nor a loss. The reason for the former is that the more recent migrants remit less or not at all compared to earlier waves of migrants and the reason for the latter is that migration becomes less costly with prior experience.
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Slobodan Djajić (Graduate Institute (Geneva, Switerland)); Frédéric Docquier (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), FNRS, National Fund for Scientific Research, Belgium and FERDI, Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Developpement International, France); Michael S. Michael (Departement of Economics, University of Cyprus (Nicosia, Cyprus))
    Abstract: This paper revisits the question of how brain drain affects the optimal education policy of a developing economy. Our framework of analysis highlights the complementarity between public spending on education and students' efforts to acquire human capital in response to career opportunities at home and abroad. Given this complementarity, we find that brain drain has conflicting effects on the optimal provision of public education. A positive response is called for when the international earning differential with destination countries is large, and when the emigration rate is relatively low. In contrast with the findings in the existing literature, our numerical experiments show that these required conditions are in fact present in a large number of developing countries; they are equivalent to those under which an increase in emigration induces a net brain gain. As a further contribution, we study the interaction between the optimal immigration policy of the host country and education policy of the source country in a game-theoretic framework.
    Keywords: migration of skilled workers, immigration policy, education policy
    JEL: F22 J24 O15
    Date: 2018–02–20
  9. By: Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; Torun, Huzeyfe
    Abstract: We investigate how the rapid increase in the low-skilled labor supply induced by the inflow of 2.5 million Syrian refugees changed the tasks performed by native workers and the amount of capital used by firms in Turkey. Despite the unexpected nature of the refugee inflow, location choice of the refugees may be endogenous to the labor market opportunities of hosting regions. To handle this endogeneity issue, we use an instrument for the refugee intensity based on the distance of Turkish regions to the Syrian ones. The results based on Labor Force Survey suggest that the inflow of refugees increased natives’ task complexity, reducing the intensity of manual tasks, and raising the intensity of abstract, routine and ICT tasks. This effect is particularly strong for natives with medium level of education. Exploiting the administrative firm data that contains the entirety of firms in the country, we find that the firms reduced their fixed assets. The fixed asset reduction is largest in machinery and equipment, which can be interpreted as a decline in the capital intensity of production. We conclude that tasks provided by Syrian refugees are substitutes for natives’ manual tasks and firms’ capital, and complementary to natives’ more complex tasks.
    Keywords: Migration,refugees,labor-capital substitution,skills,tasks
    JEL: F22 J24 J21 D24
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Gatskova, Kseniia; Kozlov, Vladimir
    Abstract: Previous literature suggests that households may react to wealth fluctuations by increasing or decreasing the number of members sharing the same residence. We use a unique three-wave household panel data from Tajikistan to explore the change in household size as a response to income shifts related to international labor migration. In addition, we analyze the interaction between effects of idiosyncratic income increase resulted from a successful migration episode and the one of an aggregate shock – the global financial crisis – and show how different households adjust their family size during times of financial hardship. The empirical evidence indicates that the successful migration episode two years before the interview was associated with a decrease in family size due to some of the family members’ moving out. At the same time, people were more likely to live in larger households during the crisis year than before and after the crisis. Empirical analysis yields that migrant families were not different from non-migrant families with respect to the doubling up as response to financial crisis, which suggests that labor migration in Tajikistan does not insure against economic shocks in the long run.
    Keywords: migration, remittances, household size, living arrangements, Tajikistan
    JEL: F22 D1 J1
    Date: 2018–01
  11. By: Jaeger, David A; Ruist, Joakim; Stuhler, Jan
    Abstract: A large literature exploits geographic variation in the concentration of immigrants to identify their impact on a variety of outcomes. To address the endogeneity of immigrants' location choices, the most commonly-used instrument interacts national inflows by country of origin with immigrants' past geographic distribution. We present evidence that estimates based on this "shift-share" instrument conflate the short- and long-run responses to immigration shocks. If the spatial distribution of immigrant inflows is stable over time, the instrument is likely to be correlated with ongoing responses to previous supply shocks. Estimates based on the conventional shift-share instrument are therefore unlikely to identify the short-run causal effect. We propose a "multiple instrumentation" procedure that isolates the spatial variation arising from changes in the country-of-origin composition at the national level and permits us to estimate separately the short- and long-run effects. Our results are a cautionary tale for a large body of empirical work, not just on immigration, that rely on shift-share instruments for causal inference.
    Keywords: Immigration; past settlement instrument; shift-share instrument; spatial correlation
    JEL: C36 J15 J21 J61
    Date: 2018–02
  12. By: Stefan C. Wolter; Maria Zumbuehl
    Abstract: In this paper we follow the students that took the PISA 2012 test in Switzerland and analyze their transition into and progress in upper-secondary education. We observe a substantive difference in the rate of progress between natives and students with a migration background. One year after leaving compulsory school, the gap between the natives and migrants that are on-track - entering the second year of upper-secondary education - is 15 percentage points. Observable differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills can explain the gap in the success rate within upper-secondary education, but cannot fully explain the difference in the transition rate into upper-secondary education. More refined analyses present results that are consistent with the hypotheses of differences in tastes, aspirations and incomplete or inaccurate information about the education system explaining the gap in the transition into post-compulsory education.
    Keywords: education, migration, occupational choice
    JEL: I24 J15 J24 J62 J71
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Blaise Gnimassoun
    Abstract: Regional integration in Africa is a subject of great interest, but its impact on income has not been studied sufficiently. Using cross-sectional and panel estimations, this paper examines the impact of African integration on real per capita income in Africa. To do this, we consider intra-African trade and migration flows as quantitative measures reflecting the intensity of regional integration. In order to address the endogeneity concerns, we use a gravity-based IV strategy. Our results show that, from a long-term perspective, African integration has not been strong enough to generate a positive, significant and robust impact on real per capita income in Africa. However it appears to be significantly income-enhancing in the short term but only through inter-country migration. These results are robust to a wide range of specifications. Further analysis shows that economic diversification, financial development and the quality of transport and telecommunication infrastructure significantly affect the impact of intra-African trade on per capita income. Their improvement would make intra-African trade income-improving. Our policy recommendations have been formulated in this direction.
    Keywords: Income per Capita, Trade, International Migration, Economic Integration, Africa.
    JEL: E64 F14 F22 F15 O55
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Karine Torosyan (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University); Norberto Pignatti (International School of Economics - Tbilisi); Maksym Obrizan (Kyiv School of Economics)
    Abstract: Internally displaced people (IDPs) constitute a serious economic, social and cultural problem for many countries, including countries in transition. Despite the importance of the problem, there are only a handful of previous studies investigating the issue of labor market outcomes of IDPs. We aim to fill this gap in the literature using 13 years of Integrated Household Surveys over 2004 - 2016 from Georgia, which experienced large flows of internal migrants from the early 1990s until now. Our analyses indicate that the labor market outcomes of IDPs are much worse than those of local residents. Specifically, IDPs are 3.9 to 11.2 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force, depending on the period and duration of IDP status. IDPs are also up to 11.6 percentage points more likely to be unemployed, sometimes even after 20 years of forced displacement. Finally, IDPs residing in a locality for more than 5 years receive persistently lower wages than local residents with similar characteristics, with the gap widening over time, reaching some 16 percentage points in the last period under analysis.
    Keywords: conflict, internally displaced people, IDPs, labor market outcomes, transition countries
    JEL: D74 J21 O15 P23 R23
    Date: 2018–03
  15. By: Hillel Rapoport
    Abstract: Migration decisions affect those left-behind in ways that are partly taken into account by market forces (e.g., wage effects on labour markets) and for the most part these can be seen as pure externalities. Diasporas are an example of such an externality. This paper reviews the recent economic literature on diaspora networks and development from the perspective of the global South. It is split into two parts: a first section reviews the effect of diaspora networks on trade, foreign investments, and the diffusion of knowledge as well as technology across borders. A second section looks at the cultural sway of the diaspora, investigating on a macro-level the role of migration in cultural convergence across countries and on a micro-level the impact of emigrants in the formation of political attitudes, fertility behaviour, and other aspects of culture.
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Hamed Sambo (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of remittances on undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data from 35 countries spanning the years 2001-2011. The panel Spatial Error Model (SEM) was used after taking into account the spatial interaction between countries. We find that remittances contribute to the reduction of undernourishment in Sub-Saharan African. However, the elasticity of calorie consumption to remittances is narrow. Moreover, the impact of remittances is more pronounced in intermediate income deciles countries than in the countries in lower income deciles and higher income deciles. Abstract This paper investigates the impact of remittances on undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data from 35 countries spanning the years 2001-2011. The panel Spatial Error Model (SEM) was used after taking into account the spatial interaction between countries. We find that remittances contribute to the reduction of undernourishment in Sub-Saharan African. However, the elasticity of calorie consumption to remittances is narrow. Moreover, the impact of remittances is more pronounced in intermediate income deciles countries than in the countries in lower income deciles and higher income deciles.
    Keywords: Remittances, Undernourishment, Spatial Error Model, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2018–01–24
  17. By: Mauro Lanati
    Abstract: Cultural differences play an important role in shaping migration patterns. The conventional proxies for cross country cultural differences - such as common language, ethnicity, genetic traits or religion - implicitly assume that cultural proximity between two countries is constant over time and symmetric, which is far from realistic. This paper proposes a tractable model for international migration which explicitly allows for the time varying and asymmetric dimensions of cultural proximity. Similarly to Disdier et al (2010) we assume that the evolution of bilateral cultural affinity over time is reflected in the intensity of bilateral trade in cultural goods. Our empirical framework includes a comprehensive set of high dimensional fixed effects which enables for the identification of the impact of cultural proximity on migration over and beyond the effect of pre-existing cultural and historical ties. The results are robust across different econometric techniques and suggest that positive changes in cultural relationships over time foster bilateral migration.
    Keywords: Migration, Trade in Cultural Goods, Gravity Model
    JEL: F16 F22 Z10
    Date: 2018–02–26
  18. By: Yvonne Giesing; Nadzeya Laurentsyeva
    Abstract: This paper establishes a causal link between the emigration of skilled workers and firm performance in source countries. Using firm-level panel data from ten Eastern European countries, we show that the emigration of skilled workers lowers firm total factor productivity. We exploit time, country, and industry differences in the opening of EU labor markets from 2004 to 2014 as a source of exogenous variation in the emigration rates from new EU member states. We argue that a potential channel behind this effect relates to the reduction in firm-specific human capital due to a higher worker turnover.
    Keywords: migration, firm productivity, human capital, EU enlargement
    JEL: O15 D24 F22 J24
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Özge Bilgili; Sonja Fransen; Craig Loschmann; Melissa Siegel
    Abstract: This paper studies to what extent and in what ways access to educational services and schooling outcomes of local children are influenced by the presence of a refugee camp in or around their community. Taking the case of Congolese refugees in Rwanda and relying on household survey data collected in 2016, we investigate the availability of schools, schooling rates and access to school-based feeding programs in communities closer to and further away from three refugee camps: Gihembe, Kiziba and Kigeme. Furthermore, we conduct a cohort analysis to compare the years of schooling and primary school completion of Rwandans residing at different distances from each of these camps. Finally, on the basis of focus group discussions conducted among locals, we provide further insights into the ways in which locals perceive the effects of the refugee camp’s presence on their children’s access to schooling and educational outcomes. Our results highlight that living nearby a refugee camp does not have a negative influence on the education of local children. On the contrary, children residing closer to the camps have better schooling outcomes, and locals residing closer to the camps have a wide array of mostly positive views regarding the effects of refugees on local education. These results contribute to the body of literature on the effects of refugees on host communities and inform policies on how refugees need not be a ‘burden’ if long-term investments are made and the voice of the locals are heard to address their needs.
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Michal burzynski (University of Luxembourg, CREA); Christoph Deuster (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal); Frédéric Docquier (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS), Belgium and Université d'Auvergne, FERDI, France)
    Abstract: This paper characterizes the recent evolution of the geographic distribution of talent, and studies its implications for development inequality. Assuming the continuation of recent educational and immigration policies, it produces integrated projections of income, population, urbanization and human capital for the 21st century. To do so, we develop and parameterize a two-sector, two-class, world economy model that endogenizes education decisions, population growth, labor mobility, and income disparities across countries and across regions/sectors (agriculture vs. nonagriculture). We find that the geography of talent matters for global inequality, whatever the size of technological externalities. Low access to education and the sectoral allocation of talent have substantial impacts on inequality, while the effect of international migration is small. We conclude that policies targeting access to all levels of education and sustainable urban development are vital to reduce demographic pressures and global inequality in the long term.
    Keywords: human capital, migration, urbanization, growth, inequality
    JEL: E24 J24 O15
    Date: 2018–02–20
  21. By: Philipp Lergetporer; Marc Piopiunik; Lisa Simon
    Abstract: In recent years, Europe has experienced an unprecedented influx of refugees. While natives’ attitudes toward refugees are decisive for the political feasibility of asylum policies, little is known about how these attitudes are shaped by refugees’ characteristics. We conducted survey experiments with more than 5,000 university students in Germany in which we exogenously shifted participants’ beliefs about refugees’ education level through information provision. Consistent with economic theory, we find that beliefs about refugees’ education significantly affect concerns about labor market competition. These concerns, however, do not translate into general attitudes because economic aspects are rather unimportant for forming attitudes toward refugees.
    Keywords: refugees, information provision, education, survey experiment, labor market
    JEL: H12 H53 I38 D83 D72 P16
    Date: 2017

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