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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Johannes G. Hoogeveen (World Bank); Maricristina Rossi (University of Turin); Dario Sansone (Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a unique dataset to analyse the migration dynamics of refugees, returnees and internally displaced people during the Northern Mali conflict. Individuals were interviewed monthly using mobile phones. Our results cast light on the determinants of past and future migration patterns in these groups, their welfare, and household dissolution patterns. In addition to this, we test how employment status, security, and expectations affect the willingness to go back home. The general findings suggest that especially internally displaced people are likely to integrate in the host country and do not show a strong willingness to go back. We find that individuals who were employed were less willing to go back to the North. High educated individuals were less likely to have already returned, while the opposite is true for those whose ethnicity is Songhai, as well as for those who are from Kidal. We also find that higher educated individuals performed better when displaced and in case they decided to return, they were able to find a job more easily. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crp:wpaper:167&r=mig |
| By: | Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa |
| Abstract: | An inflow of immigrants into a region impacts house prices in three ways. For a fixed level of local population, housing demand rises due to the increase in foreign-born population. In addition, immigrants can influence native location decisions and induce additional shifts in demand. Finally, changes in housing supply conditions can in turn affect prices. Existing reduced form estimates of the effect of immigration on house prices capture the sum of all these effects. In this paper, I propose a methodology to identify the different channels driving the total effect. I show that, conditional on supply, total changes in housing demand can be decomposed into the sum of direct immigrant demand and indirect demand changes from relocated population. The size and sign of the indirect demand effect depends on the impact of immigration on native mobility. I use Spanish data during the period 2001- 2012 to estimate the different elements of the decomposition, applying an instrumental variables strategy to obtain consistent coefficients. The results show that overlooking the impact of immigration on native location induces a sizeable difference between the total and the immigrant demand effects, affecting the interpretation of the estimates |
| Keywords: | immigration; housing; Spain; instrumental variables |
| JEL: | J61 R12 R21 |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86571&r=mig |
| By: | Carlana, Michela; La Ferrara, Eliana; Pinotti, Paolo |
| Abstract: | We study the educational choices of children of immigrants in a tracked school system. We first show that immigrant boys in Italy enroll disproportionately into vocational high schools, as opposed to technical and academically-oriented high schools, compared to natives of similar ability. Immigrant girls, instead, choose similar schools as native ones. We then estimate the impact of a large-scale, randomized intervention providing tutoring and career counseling to high-ability immigrant students. Male treated students increase their probability of enrolling into the high track to the same level of natives, also closing the gap in terms of grade retention. There are no significant effects on immigrant females, who exhibit similar choices and performance as native ones in absence of the intervention. Increases in academic motivation and the resulting changes in teachers' recommendation regarding high school choice explain a sizable portion of the effect, while the effect of increases in cognitive skills is negligible. Finally, we find positive spillovers on immigrant classmates of treated students, while there is no effect on native classmates. |
| Keywords: | aspirations; career choice; immigrants; mentoring; tracking |
| JEL: | I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12538&r=mig |
| By: | Wolter, Stefan C. (University of Bern); Zumbühl, Maria (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we follow the students that took the PISA 2012 test in Switzerland and analyze their transition into and progress in uppersecondary education. We observe a substantive difference in the rate of progress between natives and students with a migration background. One year after leaving compulsory school, the gap between the natives and migrants that are on-track – entering the second year of uppersecondary education – is 15 percentage points. Observable differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills can explain the gap in the success rate within upper-secondary education, but cannot fully explain the difference in the transition rate into upper-secondary education. More refined analyses present results that are consistent with the hypotheses of differences in tastes, aspirations and incomplete or inaccurate information about the education system explaining the gap in the transition into post-compulsory education. |
| Keywords: | education, migration, occupational choice |
| JEL: | I24 J15 J24 J62 J71 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11217&r=mig |
| By: | Wen, Le (University of Auckland); Maani, Sholeh A. (University of Auckland) |
| Abstract: | The recent literature on overeducation has provided divergent results on whether or not overeducation bears an earnings penalty. In addition, few studies have considered overeducation among immigrants. This paper uses panel data analyses to investigate the match between education and occupation and resulting earnings effects for immigrants from English Speaking, and Non-English Speaking, Backgrounds relative to the native-born population in Australia. Based on nine years of longitudinal data, the panel approach addresses individual heterogeneity effects (motivation, ability, and compensating differentials) that are crucial in overeducation analysis. First, we find that immigrants have significantly higher incidence rates of overeducation than the native-born. This probability increases, rather than diminishes, once we control for unobserved correlated effects. Second, based on panel fixed effects analyses there is no penalty for overeducation for ESB immigrants. However, NESB immigrants receive a lower return to required and overeducation compared to the other groups after controlling for individual heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | over-education, educational mismatch, immigrants, non-English-speaking, panel data, wage effects |
| JEL: | J24 J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11216&r=mig |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Liu, Maggie Y.; Mayda, Anna Maria; Zhou, Minghai |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of China's integration into the world economy on workers in the country and show that one important channel of impact has been internal migration. Specifically, we study the changes in internal migration rates triggered by the reduction in trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese exporters in the U.S. This reduction is characterized by plausibly exogenous variation across sectors, which we use to construct a local measure of treatment, at the level of a Chinese prefecture, following Bartik (1991). This allows us to estimate a difference-in-difference empirical specification based on variation across Chinese prefectures before and after 2001. We find that prefectures facing the average decline in trade policy uncertainty experience an 18 percent increase in their internal in-migration rate -- this result is driven by migrants who are ``non-hukou", skilled, and in their prime working age. Finally, in those prefectures, working hours of ``native'' unskilled workers significantly increase -- while the employment rates of neither native workers nor internal migrants change. |
| Keywords: | Hukou; Immigration; internal migration; Trade policy uncertainty |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12578&r=mig |
| By: | Yaqin Su (Hunan University); Petros Tesfazion (Central College); Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of rural migrants in cities, this paper investigates where the migrants in urban China come from, paying close attention to intra-provincial vs. inter-provincial migrants, and examining the differences in their personal attributes. We find that migrants who have come within the province differ significantly from those who have come from outside of the province. Using a nested logit model, we find that overall, higher wage differentials, larger population size, higher GDP per capita, and faster employment growth rate are the attributes of a city that attract migrants from both within and outside province. In addition, moving beyond one’s home province has a strong deterrent effect on migration, analogous to the “border effect” identified in international migration studies. We also explore the role of culture, institutional barrier, and dialect in explaining such a pronounced “border effect”. |
| Keywords: | rural-urban migration, China, border effect, inter- vs. intra-provincial migration |
| JEL: | J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-003&r=mig |
| By: | Anthony Edo; Yvonne Giesing; Jonathan Öztunc; Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | Immigration has become one of the most divisive political issues in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and several other Western countries. We estimate the impact of immigration on voting for far-left and far-right parties in France, using panel data on presidential elections from 1988 to 2017. To derive causal estimates, we instrument more recent immigration flows by past settlement patterns in 1968. We find that immigration increases support for far-right candidates and has no robust effect on far-left voting. The increased support for far-right candidates is driven by low educated immigrants from non-Western countries. |
| Keywords: | Voting;Immigration |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J15 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-20&r=mig |
| By: | Xie, Bin (Jinan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the exogenous and differential immigrant supply shocks caused by the immigration quota system in the 1920s to identify the causal effects of the immigration restriction on the US manufacturing wages, the Great Migration, and industrial production between 1920 and 1930. I find that the immigration restriction significantly increased manufacturing wages and encouraged the southern black population to migrate to the North. I also find that the decline in the immigrant supply constrained the growth of the scale of manufacturing production and discouraged technology adoption of electrification. |
| Keywords: | immigration restriction, Great Black Migration, industrial development |
| JEL: | J61 N32 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11214&r=mig |
| By: | David Lagakos (University of California, San Diego); Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale University); Michael Waugh (New York University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build a dynamic incomplete-markets model of migration in which heterogeneous agents face seasonal income fluctuations, stochastic income shocks, and disutility of migration that depends on past migration experience. We calibrate the model to replicate a field experiment that subsidized migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in both migration rates and consumption for induced migrants. The model’s welfare predictions for migration subsidies are driven by two main features of the model and data: first, induced migrants tend to be negatively selected on income and assets; second, the model’s non-monetary disutility of migration is substantial, which we validate using newly collected survey data from this same experimental sample. The average welfare gains are similar in magnitude to those obtained from an unconditional cash transfer, and greater than from policies that discourage migration, though migration subsidies lead to larger gains for the poorest households, which have the greatest propensity to migrate. |
| Keywords: | rural-urban migration |
| JEL: | J61 O11 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-002&r=mig |
| By: | David Lagakos; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael E. Waugh |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build a dynamic incomplete-markets model of migration in which heterogenous agents face seasonal income fluctuations, stochastic income shocks, and disutility of migration that depends on past migration experience. We calibrate the model to replicate a field experiment that subsidized migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in both migration rates and in consumption for induced migrants. The model’s welfare predictions for migration subsidies are driven by two main features of the model and data: first, induced migrants tend to be negatively selected on income and assets; second, the model’s non-monetary disutility of migration is substantial, which we validate using using newly collected survey data from this same experimental sample. The average welfare gains are similar in magnitude to those obtained from an unconditional cash transfer, though migration subsidies lead to larger gains for the poorest households, which have the greatest propensity to migrate. |
| JEL: | J61 O11 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24193&r=mig |
| By: | Rodolfo G. Campos (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Using an empirical gravity model, I estimate the contribution of changes in relative labor supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and apply the resulting estimates to project future bilateral flows based on population forecasts by the United Nations. I extend the work of Hanson and McIntosh (2016) by including non-OECD destinations and project international migration flows for the whole world. In contrast to their findings, and despite of the slowdown of population growth in Latin America, the US will face sustained immigration pressures because of strong population growth in other regions of the world, leading to a projected immigrant stock that grows for decades to come. For the world as a whole, international migrants are projected to increase from 2.8% of total world population in 2010 to 3.5% in 2050, with a substantial increase of migrants originating from India and Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | international migration, gravity model, population growth |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1734&r=mig |
| By: | Hamed Sambo (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of remittances on undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data from 35 countries spanning the years 2001-2011. The panel Spatial Error Model (SEM) was used after taking into account the spatial interaction between countries. We find that remittances contribute to the reduction of undernourishment in Sub-Saharan African. However, the elasticity of calorie consumption to remittances is narrow. Moreover, the impact of remittances is more pronounced in intermediate income deciles countries than in the countries in lower income deciles and higher income deciles. |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Undernourishment, Spatial Error Model, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | P22 P24 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-21&r=mig |