nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2017‒05‒07
seventeen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Ability Drain: Size, Impact, and Comparison with Brain Drain under Alternative Immigration Policies By Schiff, Maurice
  2. Maghreb Rural-Urban Migration: The Movement to Morocco’s Towns By Jamal Bouoiyour; Amal Miftah; Christophe Muller
  3. Understanding the Macroeconomic Impact of Migration in Malta By Aaron G Grech
  4. Potential and Return Migrants in Bulgaria - Demographic and Socio-economic Aspects By Mintchev, Vesselin
  5. Migration of Bulgarian Population – Characteristics and Relations to the Regional Socio-economic Disparities By Mintchev, Vesselin; Shopov, Georgi; Kaltchev, Iordan; Boshnakov, Venelin
  6. A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany By Stähler, Nikolai
  7. Settlers and Temporary Migrants in Germany (Results of Empirical Survey of Individuals Travelling by Busses from Bulgaria to Germany) By Mintchev, Vesselin
  8. Interstate Mobility Patterns of Likely Unauthorized Immigrants: Evidence from Arizona By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Lozano, Fernando A.
  9. Diaspora Networks as a Bridge between Civilizations By Jackline Wahba; Ishac Diwan; Michele Tuccio
  10. Treatment-Related Naturalization Premiums in Two European Countries: Evaluation and Comparison By Vahan Sargsyan
  11. The Bulgarian Community in Spain (Will The Bulgarians Return from Spain?) By Mintchev, Vesselin; Boshnakov, Venelin
  12. War, Migration and the Origins of the Thai Sex Industry By Brodeur, Abel; Lekfuangfu, Warn N.; Zylberberg, Yanos
  13. New Findings on the Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the United States By Orrenius, Pia M.
  14. Benefit and Cost of Visa relaxation -Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Visa waiver- By Tsuyoshi Goto; Nobuo Akai
  15. Cities, Towns, and Poverty: Migration Equilibrium and Income Distribution in a Todaro-type Model with Multiple Destinations By Christiaensen, Luc; De Weerdt, Joachim; Kanbur, Ravi
  16. Rwandan refugee physical (in)security in Uganda: views from below By Ahimbisibwe, Frank
  17. Sun, Regulation and Local Social Networks By Antoine Bonleu

  1. By: Schiff, Maurice
    Abstract: Ability drain's (AD) impact seems economically significant, with 30% of US Nobel laureates since 1906 being immigrants, and immigrants or their children founding 40% of Fortune 500 companies. Nonetheless, while brain drain (BD) and gain (BG) have been studied extensively, AD has not. I examine migration's impact on ability (a), education (h), and productive human capital or 'skill' s=s(a,h), for source country residents and migrants under a) the points system (PS) which accounts for h, and b) the 'vetting' system (VS) which accounts for s (e.g., US H-1B program). Findings are: i) Migration reduces (raises) residents' (migrants') average ability, with an ambiguous (positive) impact on average education and skill, and net skill drain, SD, likelier than net BD; ii) these effects increase with ability's inequality or variance, are greater under VS than PS, and hurt source countries; iii) the model and two empirical studies suggest that, for educated US immigrants, average AD ≥ BD, with real income about twice home country income; iv) SD holds for any BD, and also for a very small AD (7.4% of our estimate). Policy implications are provided.
    Keywords: Migration,points system,vetting system,ability drain,brain drain,brain gain
    JEL: F22 J24 J61 O15
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Jamal Bouoiyour (University of Pau); Amal Miftah; Christophe Muller
    Abstract: Using data from national-level households survey, this study seeks to fill a gap in the migration literature by analyzing the determinant of rural migration in the case of Morocco. In contrast to the evidence in the international migration literature, our results support the negative selection into internal migration. Specifically, the probability of being a household without migrants decreases with educational level of the household and asset holdings compared to non-migrant households. This suggests that rural migration can benefit home communities and family members left behind by increasing household income and thus easing liquidity constraints, thereby promoting investment in physical and human capital. These results are in line with that related to the propensity to remit and the amount remitted that seemingly decrease with the individual level of education of household.
    Date: 2017–10–04
  3. By: Aaron G Grech (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper tries to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of increased economic migration to Malta. Administrative data show that the proportion of foreign workers has risen from 1.3% of the total workforce in 2000 to 10.1% in 2014. In the absence of immigration, the working age population would have shrunk slightly, instead of rising by 3% since EU accession. While the bulk of these migrants are in managerial, professional and technical occupations, there are a growing number of foreign workers in elementary occupations and in clerical and support duties.
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
  4. By: Mintchev, Vesselin
    Abstract: The article suggests results from a study of external migration in Bulgaria as a sending country where the so called potential migrants and returnees from abroad are explored. The purpose of the paper is to outline the profile, attitudes and labour realization (expected – concerning the potential migrants, and factual of the returnees) in both groups. The comparison between them shows whether the migration experience of returnees relates to the attitudes and expectations of potential migrants. On the other hand, the monitoring of external migration attitudes of Bulgarian population allows the estimation of the country’s migration potential and description of the employment and income status of return migrants during their stay abroad. Furthermore, the attitudes of Bulgarians towards the influx of foreign population into the country are duscussed on the basis of data from three consecutive sample surveys (2001, 2007, and 2011).
    Keywords: International Migration, Potential and Return Migrants
    JEL: F22 J11 O15
    Date: 2016–07–15
  5. By: Mintchev, Vesselin; Shopov, Georgi; Kaltchev, Iordan; Boshnakov, Venelin
    Abstract: The paper suggests a short overview of migration processes in Bulgaria since the start of its democratization and transition to market economy. The socio-demographic structure of both potential and return migrants is evaluated empirically using a large sample data for 2013 representative for Bulgarian population aged 18-65. On the basis of a ranking of Bulgarian regions and districts by an integral score of their socio-economic development (involving a set of development indicators) a range of regional disparities are revealed in respect of migration potential, return migration, and remittances allocation and utilization. The rich empirical evidence suggests that Bulgarian migration policies should emphasize substantially on the issues of regional disbalances in order to offset the evaluated distortions.
    Keywords: Migration, Regional disparities, Remittances
    JEL: F22 F24 R12
    Date: 2016–07–15
  6. By: Stähler, Nikolai
    Abstract: By simulating various (labour market) integration scenarios with the aid of a New Keynesian DSGE model, this paper explores the potential economic consequences and transmission mechanisms resulting from the recent refugee migration to Germany. We find that the long-run costs and benefits for domestic agents depend critically on the skill levels migrants will obtain in the long run. A failure to integrate the about 800,000 migrants (equivalent to 1% of initial German population) could reduce per capita output and consumption by 0.43% and 0.48%, respectively, while integration measures that improve their qualification structure could even yield per capita output and consumption gains of 0.34% and 0.38%, respectively. Measures that cause the migrant qualification structure to closely match that of the native population over the long term do not lead to significant changes in GDP and consumption. Overall, our model simulations suggest that the macroeconomic impact of refugee migration is small.
    Keywords: Refugee Migration,Labour Market Integration,Macroeconomics
    JEL: F22 J61 J31 E24
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Mintchev, Vesselin
    Abstract: The article presents a selection of results from a sample questionnaire survey of Bulgarian citizens travelling by busses from Bulgaria to Germany in May 2012. Two main segments are delineated – Bulgarians that are permanently or temporary residing in this country. Their socio-demographic profiles are explored separately and in comparative perspective, including their actual and expected realization on the labour market abroad. The migration intentions of both segments are identified in the context of the current debate regarding the EU-2 (Bulgarian and Romanian) migration flows to Germany.
    Keywords: International Migraion, Permanent and Temporary Bulgarian Migrants in Germany
    JEL: F22 J21 Z13
    Date: 2016–07–15
  8. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (San Diego State University); Lozano, Fernando A. (Pomona College)
    Abstract: A growing literature has documented the displacement effects of tougher interior immigration enforcement measures; yet, we still lack an understanding of where the displaced populations are choosing to relocate. In this paper, we address this question using Arizona as a case study. Specifically, we examine the destinations of Mexican non-citizens leaving Arizona for other states in the union following the adoption of tougher enforcement measures using two different groups of control states: one consisting of all states that had not adopted similar measures, and another one derived using the synthetic control method. We find that Mexican non-citizens who migrated from Arizona to other U.S. states went, primarily, to New Mexico and California. Other destination states differed with the control group being used, underscoring the sensitivity of this type of analysis to the choice of control group. Furthermore, the trajectories of Mexican non-citizens leaving Arizona overlapped with those of non-Hispanic natives, hinting on the role that socioeconomic and political factors, in addition to potential complementarities between immigrants and natives, might have played in explaining the destinations of Mexican non-citizens leaving Arizona after 2007.
    Keywords: unauthorized immigrants, geographic mobility, interior enforcement, Arizona
    JEL: J61 K37
    Date: 2017–03
  9. By: Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton); Ishac Diwan; Michele Tuccio
    Abstract: This paper explores the effect of international migration on the so-called clash of civilizations. Exploiting Gallup data on North Africa and the Middle East, we study the impact of having family members abroad on opinions about the relation between the Western and Muslim worlds. We find that households with migrants in Europe and North America have more positive attitudes towards the West than those with no migrants, or those with migrants in a Gulf country. We also show that in Tunisia having a migrant abroad has helped families go through the difficult post revolution period while keeping a positive and optimistic attitude towards the future, independently of their income level. Overall, our findings point at the important role of international migration as a bridge between civilizations, and as a catalyst for long-term peace and stability in troubled origin countries.
    Date: 2017–11–05
  10. By: Vahan Sargsyan
    Abstract: We conduct an empirical study in order to estimate the impact of naturalization on labor market integration of first generation immigrants in two European countries, France and Denmark. The study contributes to the existing literature by: (1) comparing the employment opportunities and incomes of naturalized and non-naturalized migrants in European labor markets to those of the native population, and (2) attempting to estimate the impact of characteristics of a country’s citizenship policy on this relationship. The results suggest the existence of high naturalization premiums and full socioeconomic integration of naturalized migrants in France, a country with relatively soft naturalization policies, but not for Denmark, which has strict naturalization policies.
    Keywords: citizenship policy; naturalization; naturalization premium; socioeconomic integration;
    JEL: J08 J15 J78 O15
    Date: 2017–04
  11. By: Mintchev, Vesselin; Boshnakov, Venelin
    Abstract: The article presents a selection of results from a representative sample survey among the Bulgarian population residing in Spain. The sample includes 506 individuals living in 25 different settlements in this country interviewed in 2011. The data provides various opportunities for deriving social, demographic, and economic status of Bulgarians residing in Spain. The transfer behavior of Bulgarians in this country is compared to the practices revealed by return migrants studied in the framework of a representative survey conducted in Bulgaria. The article suggests evidence about the degree of knowledge of Bulgarian language by the youngest generation as well as the frequency of contacts between the Bulgarian Diaspora and the relatives left behind. The question "Will the Bulgarians return from Spain?" is discussed as well.
    Keywords: International Migration, Bulgarian Diaspora in Spain, Remittances
    JEL: F22 F24 Z13
    Date: 2016–07–15
  12. By: Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Lekfuangfu, Warn N. (Chulalongkorn University); Zylberberg, Yanos (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants behind the spatial distribution of the sex industry in Thailand. We relate the development of the sex industry to an early temporary demand shock, i.e., U.S. military presence during the Vietnam War. Comparing the surroundings of Thai military bases used by the U.S. army to districts close to unused Thai bases, we find that there are currently 5 times more commercial sex workers in districts near former U.S. bases. The development of the sex industry is also explained by a high price elasticity of supply due to female migration from regions affected by an agricultural crisis. Finally, we study a consequence induced by the large numbers of sex workers in few red-light districts: the HIV outbreak in the early 1990s.
    Keywords: sex industry, industry location, persistence, HIV/AIDS
    JEL: O17 O18 N15 J46 J47 I28
    Date: 2017–03
  13. By: Orrenius, Pia M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
    Abstract: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2016) report on the economic and fiscal effects of immigration included the first set of comprehensive fiscal impacts published in twenty years. The estimates highlight the pivotal role of the public goods assumption. If immigrants are assigned the average cost of public goods, such as national defense and interest on the debt, then immigration’s fiscal impact is negative in both the short and long run. If, instead, immigrants are assigned the marginal cost of public goods, then the long-run fiscal impact is positive and the short-run effect is negative but very small (less negative than that of natives). Highly educated immigrants confer large positive fiscal impacts, contributing far more in taxes than they consume in public benefits. To the extent that immigrants impose net costs, these are concentrated at the state and local level and are largely due to the costs of public schooling.
    Keywords: Immigration; fiscal impact; public goods
    JEL: H50 H72 J15
    Date: 2017–04–01
  14. By: Tsuyoshi Goto (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Nobuo Akai (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: In spite of a heated debate over immigration policies in the world, the effects of visa, which is one of the representative tool for immigration control, are uncertain for some aspects. This paper analyzes whether visa relaxation has impacts on both legal foreign visitors and illegally overstayed foreigners focusing on Japanese visa waiver program. The empirical analyses show that visa waiver will increase both legal travelers and illegally overstayed foreigners while it may have a bigger effect on legal visitors than overstayed foreigners.
    Keywords: Visa; Immigration policy; Policy evaluation
    JEL: F22 F68 H56 K37 L51
    Date: 2017–04
  15. By: Christiaensen, Luc; De Weerdt, Joachim; Kanbur, Ravi
    Abstract: Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question we extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. We first derive conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. We then address the policy question and show how the answer depends on the migration response, where the poverty line lies relative to incomes in the three locations, and at times also the poverty index itself. In particular, we develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters and illustrate the empirical remit of the model with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs. Overall, the findings confirm that, given migration responses, national poverty outcomes are not immune to whether urban employment generation takes place in the towns or the city.
    Keywords: Equilibrium Income Distribution.; Migration Equilibrium; Poverty Gradient; Poverty Reduction; Secondary Towns versus Big Cities; Todaro Model
    JEL: I3 J61 O18 O41
    Date: 2017–04
  16. By: Ahimbisibwe, Frank
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the challenge of physical (in) security of Rwandan refugees in Nakivale and Oruchinga settlements, South Western Uganda. The paper is largely based on the views of the refugees themselves. It argues that contrary to her international obligations and the general view that Uganda is a hospitable asylum country, refugees face insecurity caused by a number of factors, including actions by their country of origin and the host state, as well as local settlement dynamics. This insecurity has negatively affected the refugees, who have adopted a number of protection measures which supplement the ones put in place by the government and UNHCR. Despite the implementation of different security measures, insecurity still prevails in the settlements.
    Keywords: Rwandan refugees; physical security; Nakivale; Oruchinga; Uganda; Rwanda
    Date: 2017–02
  17. By: Antoine Bonleu (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explain over-regulation and local social capital as barriers to immigration. The interest of social networks is that conflict resolution is independent of the law. Hence, if local individuals develop local social capital and regulation, foreigners without social networks are disadvantaged and can less easily migrate. We develop a two-country search-theoretic model where we endogenize the choice of procedural formalism (PF) and the network size. This model features two different equilibria: a Mediterranean equilibrium with PF and dense local social network and a Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon equilibrium without PF and local social networks.
    Keywords: housing market regulation, local social capital, mobility, climate amenities, social networks
    JEL: R38
    Date: 2017–04

This nep-mig issue is ©2017 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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