nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2016‒07‒30
ten papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Immigration and Prices : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Binnur Balkan Konuk; Semih Tumen
  2. How do regulated and unregulated labor markets respond to shocks? Evidence from immigrants during the Great Recession By Guriev, Sergei; Speciale, Biagio; Tuccio, Michele
  3. The returns to temporary migration: The case of Italian Ph.D.s By Marco Di Cintio; Emanuele Grassi
  4. Immigration, Real Estate Prices and the Consumption Decisions of Native Households By Adams, Zeno; Blickle, Kristian
  5. Should I stay or should I go ? internal migration and household welfare in Ghana By Molini,Vasco; Pavelesku,Dan; Ranzani,Marco
  6. Climate change impacts on agriculture and internal migrations in Brazil By Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho; Mark Horridge
  7. Immigrant Educators and Students' Academic Achievement By Seah, Kelvin
  8. Selective Immigration Policy and Its Impacts on Natives: A General Equilibrium Analysis By Serife Genc Ileri
  9. Long-term social, economic and fiscal effects of immigration into the EU: The role of the integration policy By d'Artis Kancs; Patrizio Lecca
  10. Migration to the EU: Social and Macroeconomic Effects on Sending Countries By d'Artis Kancs; Pavel Ciaian

  1. By: Binnur Balkan Konuk; Semih Tumen
    Abstract: We exploit the regional variation in the unexpected (or forced) inflow of Syrian refugees as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of immigration on consumer prices in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive data set on the regional prices of CPI items, we find that general level of consumer prices has declined by approximately 2.5 percent due to immigration. Prices of goods and services have declined in similar magnitudes. We highlight that the channel through which the price declines take place is the informal labor market. Syrian refugees supply inexpensive informal labor and, thus, substitute the informal native workers especially in informal labor intensive sectors. We document that prices in these sectors have fallen by around 4 percent, while the prices in the formal labor intensive sectors have almost remained unchanged. Increase in the supply of informal immigrant workers generates labor cost advantages and keeps prices lower in the informal labor intensive sectors.
    Keywords: Immigration, Consumer prices, Syrian refugees, Natural experiment, Informal employment
    JEL: C21 E31 J46 J61
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Guriev, Sergei; Speciale, Biagio; Tuccio, Michele
    Abstract: We study wage adjustment during the recent crisis in regulated and unregulated labor markets in Italy. Using a unique dataset on immigrant workers, we show that before the crisis wages in the formal and informal sectors moved in parallel (with a 15 percent premium in the formal labor market). During the crisis, however, formal wages did not adjust down while wages in the unregulated informal labor market fell so that by 2013 the gap had grown to 32 percent. The difference was particularly salient for workers in "simple" occupations where there is high substitutability between immigrant and native workers. Calibrating a simple model of spillovers between formal and informal markets, we find that less than 10 percent of workers who lost a formal job during the crisis move to the informal sector. We also find that if the formal sector wages were fully flexible, the decline in formal employment would be in the range of 1.5-4.5 percent - much lower than 16 percent decline that we observe in the data.
    Keywords: great recession; Immigration; Labor market regulation; wage rigidity
    JEL: E24 J31 J61
    Date: 2016–07
  3. By: Marco Di Cintio; Emanuele Grassi
    Abstract: This paper examines the implications of temporary migration episodes for two cohorts of Italian Ph.D.s. Special attention is given to the duration of experience abroad, its contribution to earned wages and the selectivity of returnees. After controlling for the endogeneity of both the migration decision and the length of stay abroad, we find positive returns to longer periods abroad and negative returns to shorter periods. Returnees are also found to be positively self-selected. The results are confirmed in several robustness and sensitivity checks.
    Keywords: skilled migration, return migration, migration premium, self-selection.
    JEL: J3 J61 F22
    Date: 2016–01–15
  4. By: Adams, Zeno; Blickle, Kristian
    Abstract: Since house prices govern the consumption decisions of renters and owners alike, changing house prices can have far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. We analyze how the disposable income and consumption decisions of households are affected by exogenous house price changes in Switzerland. We look at consumption of both housing and non-durable goods to establish a comprehensive picture. We ensure that our house price variation is exogenous by instrumenting house prices with origin-shift immigration. Our unique dataset includes information on every immigrant that entered Switzerland between 1990 and 2013, house price data for every community, and detailed survey data for over 5000 households. We can show three things. Firstly, different types of immigrants influence house prices to different degrees. This finding allows us to structure a valid instrument while also contributing to an ongoing European discussion over the effects of immigration. Secondly, rising house prices reduce the disposable income of renters. This is particularly pronounced for renters who are forced to relocate in times of rising prices. We find, therefore, that renters consume less while owners do not necessarily consume more. This is different from the US/UK context and may reflect the inability of households to extract home equity in central Europe. Thirdly, households transition to ownership less frequently or move away more often following an exogenous price increase. We add novel insights on household consumption and tenure-/location choice in response to exogenous changes in the cost of housing.
    Keywords: immigration, home ownership, consumption, house prices, gentrification
    JEL: D14 D9 J61 R21 R23
    Date: 2016–06
  5. By: Molini,Vasco; Pavelesku,Dan; Ranzani,Marco
    Abstract: This papers investigates to what extent internal migration contributes to improving households'welfare in Ghana. Using the most recent and nationally representative household survey (Ghana Living Standards Survey 2012/13), the estimates indicate that on average migration increases consumption significantly, and the effect is driven by households migrating from inland regions to the coastal areas of the country. The analysis also finds heterogeneous effects by gender and educational attainment, with migrant households headed by males and highly educated individuals faring significantly better than migrant households headed by females and low-educated individuals. The paper shows convincing evidence that the positive impact of migration on consumption is attributable to a physical mobility effect rather than changes in labor force status or sector of economic activity. However, the migration process in Ghana has important downsides, such as the brain drain and disruption of the social fabric in the communities originating migration. Future research in this area is warranted to have a more comprehensive picture of the social impact of migration in Ghana.
    Date: 2016–07–20
  6. By: Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho; Mark Horridge
    Abstract: Recent internal migration flows in Brazil differ from historical patterns observed since the seventies. In the past internal migration typically flowed from states in Northeast Brazil and Minas Gerais towards the richer states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. According to Brito and Carvalho (2006) between 1960 and 1990 about 8.1 million people left the Northeast and 3.8 million left Minas Gerais. This was the "normal" internal migration pattern in Brazil until the eighties, when, according to Brito and Carvalho (2006), a succession of economic crises and expansion of the agricultural frontiers changed the picture. Actually, during the nineties emigration from the Northeast region slowed down considerably; the region became a net recipient of population in recent years. At the same time, the Southeast states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the main destination for migrants until the end of the eighties, have recently lost population. Some of the migrants leaving the Southeast return to the Northeast, but many go to the dynamic new agricultural Center-west regions.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, Climate, Internal Migration
    JEL: C68 E17 Q54 R23
    Date: 2016–07
  7. By: Seah, Kelvin (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Using a dataset which allows students to be linked to their teachers, this paper examines how educators with an immigrant background affect the academic achievements of secondary school students in the United States. To account for the possibility that immigrant and native teachers may be assigned to different types of schools, and even within schools, to different types of students, two estimation strategies are employed. The first estimates the immigrant teacher impact by comparing the achievements of students with immigrant teachers to the achievements of observationally similar students with native teachers, within schools. The second compares the achievement of a student with an immigrant teacher in one subject to the achievement of the same student with a native teacher in another subject. The results suggest that, overall, immigrant teachers do not have a negative impact on the educational achievements of native students. Additional tests suggest that this non-adverse effect is due to the greater effectiveness of White immigrant teachers relative to native teachers.
    Keywords: education economics, immigrant teacher, academic achievement
    JEL: I21 J15 J61
    Date: 2016–07
  8. By: Serife Genc Ileri
    Abstract: This paper uses a quantitative general equilibrium model to analyze the impacts of selective immigration policy targeting skilled immigrants on the college attainment rate, earnings inequality and welfare of natives. 1981-2008 period is analyzed in Canada, which is a country with a unique immigration policy explicitly targeting highly educated individuals. The results from the quantitative analysis reveal that the increase in the share of highly skilled immigrants generates a 7 percentage points lower college attainment rate among natives. The size and compositional changes in the immigrant population together lead to a 2.15 percentage points higher growth rate of college premium during this period. This increase is mainly driven by the rise in the relative size of the foreign-born labor force. An analysis of the long-run compensating differentials reveals that immigration generates a loss that corresponds to 3.59 to 4.45 percent permanent reduction in the consumption of natives. The increase in the relative share of immigrants is the main reason for this welfare loss. On the other hand, the compositional change towards college graduates benefits natives at the bottom and middle of the ability distribution.
    Keywords: International Migration, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Human capital, Wage differentials by Skill
    JEL: F22 E25 J24 J31
    Date: 2015
  9. By: d'Artis Kancs; Patrizio Lecca
    Abstract: The issues of the forced migration and the integration of refugees in the society and labour markets are high on the policy agenda of the EU. Apart from humanitarian aspects, a sustainable integration of refugees is important also for social, economic, budgetary and others reasons. Indeed, the potential consequences of the asylum seeker acceptance are being often discussed, though little scientific evidence has been provided for the policy debate so far. The present study attempts to shed light on the long-run social, economic and budgetary effects of forced immigration into the EU by applying a macroeconomic model of the European Commission and performing scenario analysis of alternative refugee integration scenarios. Our simulation results suggest that, although, refugee integration (e.g. by providing language and professional training) is costly for the public budget, in the medium- to long-run, the social, economic and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh the short-run refugee integration costs. In addition, the integration policy has the potential to play an important role in improving the social inclusion, filling vacancies, improving the ratio of workers to economically inactive, addressing Europe’s alarming demographic challenges, and boosting jobs and growth in the EU.
    Keywords: Migration, refugees, social inclusion, labour market, integration policy, modelling, scenario analyses.
    JEL: F22 J6 J11 J24
    Date: 2016–01–08
  10. By: d'Artis Kancs; Pavel Ciaian
    Abstract: In June 2016, the European Commission issued a new EU Blue Card proposal. This proposal is meant to make the EU more attractive for highly qualified workers from third countries. While strengthening the knowledge economy of the EU, the potential impacts of the EU Blue Card on developing countries are less known. The present study attempts to shed light on the potential challenges and opportunities for developing countries by analysing conceptually the potential socio-economic impacts of the new EU Blue Card proposal. Our results suggest that the EU Blue Card may reduce the human capital, the knowledge capital, and hence growth and development prospects in developing countries, if not accompanied by appropriate policy measures. The present study identifies and examines a number of policy measures, which could help turning the sending country challenges into opportunities. Our results suggest that policies implemented on the demand side of the labour market are more efficient than policies that address the supply side of the labour market, though they are less costly to implement. Developing countries can also benefit from the knowledge diffusion from the EU, if sufficient human resources are available to use this knowledge.
    Keywords: High-skill migration, EU Blue Card, innovative capital, economic growth, developing countries.
    JEL: C68 D58 F22 J20 J61 J64 O15
    Date: 2016–01–09

This nep-mig issue is ©2016 by Yuji Tamura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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