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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Emily Farchy |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on “Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe”. This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002 / 30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper (DELSA/ELSA/MI(2015)10) was presented and discussed at the OECD working party on migration in June 2015 This paper examines the impact of the free flow of migrants within the EU on the prospects of labour migrants from third countries - the extent to which free movement migrants and third country migrants are substitutes or complements on the labour market. The first section of this paper looks at the recent trends in migration to the European Union, with a particular focus on trends in the ‘big five’ recipient countries. The analysis is supplemented by the use of micro data from the EU Labour Force Survey, to examine the extent to which the socio-economic and job characteristics suggest that EU migrants and third country migrants provide a similar labour input. Aggregate migrant flows, however, are driven by both supply and demand factors; a comparison of aggregate trends is therefore insufficient to disentangle the disparate drivers of these trends. A booming economy, for example, will attract labour migrants from both EU and third countries, yet the positive relation between these flows cannot be attributed to a complementarity between these labour inputs but rather to the demand side factors that drive them both. To overcome this endogeneity the second section of this paper utilizes the natural experiment of EU enlargement to isolate the impact of the increased supply of free movement migrants on third country migrant populations. Abstracting in this manner from the economic factors that have played such an important role in determining labour demand in recent years the empirical analysis of this paper identifies a negative impact on the arrivals of third country migrants when labour supply from new EU migrants increases. Furthermore, the lack of identifiable impact on the employment rate of third country migrants is dependent on assumptions regarding the counterfactual employment outcomes of these displaced third country migrants. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:179-en&r=mig |
| By: | Liliana Harding (University of East Anglia); Mihai Mutascu (West University of Timisoara) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of migration on per capita collected tax revenues. The panel data used includes 25 European Union (EU) countries and covers the period 1996-2010. The research contributes to the debate linking migration and tax, and finds evidence that net migration is a significant factor explaining tax revenues. In the case of EU countries, net migration accelerates to some extent the rise in collected tax, and strongly impacts on the level of tax revenues available per capita. |
| Keywords: | migration, tax payment, government revenue, European Union |
| JEL: | H20 F22 C23 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2016_08&r=mig |
| By: | Lars Dommermuth (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | As union dissolution rates increase in most modern societies, a growing number of children are living in post-separation families. The geographical distance between parental households shapes the possibilities for contact between nonresident parents and children, but empirical studies are lacking. This study investigates the geographical distance between nonresident parents and children in Norway using a total population sample, including exact geographical coordinates for residency. Results show that most children are registered in the maternal household after parents’ union dissolution. The majority of nonresident parents live within a 10 km radius of their child, but the average distance is greater for nonresident fathers than for nonresident mothers. If children move from one parental household to the other, this is associated with longer distances, especially to nonresident mothers. Low household income of nonresident parents is correlated with longer distances between the parental households. |
| Keywords: | post-separation families; nonresident parents; union dissolution; geographical distances |
| JEL: | N34 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:841&r=mig |
| By: | Alem, Yonas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Maurel, Mathilde (CNRS-Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, and FERDI); Millock, Katrin (CNRS-Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | There is solid scientific evidence predicting that a large part of the developing world will suffer a greater incidence of extreme weather events, which may increase the incidence of displacement migration. We draw on the new economics of migration to model migration decisions of smallholder and rain-dependent farm households in rural Ethiopia and investigate both the ex-ante and ex-post impacts of climate variables. Using detailed household survey panel data matched with rainfall data, we show that weather variability - measured by the coeffcient of variation of rainfall - has a strong positive impact on the probability of sending a migrant. This implies that households engage in migration to cope with risk ex-ante. We also find evidence suggesting that rainfall shocks have ex-post impact on households' likelihood of migration, but the effect is not statistically significant at the conventional levels. Instrumental variables probit regression results also show that controlling for endogeneity of income using a credible instrument is important to identify its impact on the decision to send a migrant. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming to improve the capacity of vulnerable households to adapt to climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change; drought; Ethiopia; household survey; migration; rainfall. |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0665&r=mig |
| By: | Anda David; Jean-Noël Senne |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on “Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe”. This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002 / 30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper was presented and discussed at the OECD Working Party on Migration in June 2015. The paper examines immigration to, and emigration from, the European Union, and compares them with migrant inflows and outflows to other OECD destinations. It investigates how the migrants are distributed in terms of gender, age, education and labour force status, depending on their country of origin as well as of destination. Drawing upon the Database on Immigrants in the OECD countries (DIOC), changes in migration rates and stock are analysed over time, focusing on whether the EU is facing a net gain or loss of skills. |
| JEL: | F22 J11 N34 |
| Date: | 2016–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:184-en&r=mig |
| By: | Etzo, Ivan; Massidda, Carla; Piras, Romano; Mattana, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how immigrants impact on Italian economy. The issue is addressed following the channel output decomposition approach by means of which the effect of immigration is measured with respect to per capita value added and its components. The investigation is carried out at sector level during the 2008–2011 time period. The results show that the main channel through which migration impacts on value added varies on sectoral basis. While at aggregate level, in Manufacturing and in Other Services the impact goes mainly through capital intensity, in the Construction and in the Commerce sectors the principal channel is via total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | channel output decomposition approach, immigrants. |
| JEL: | F22 F62 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72300&r=mig |
| By: | Tommaso Colussi |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on “Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe”. This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002 / 30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper (DELSA/ELSA/MI(2015)4) was presented and discussed at the OECD Working Party on Migration in June 2015. The paper assesses the impact of three European Directives – Student Directive, Researcher Directive and the Blue Card Directive – on migration flows from third countries to the EU. Using a difference-in-difference empirical strategy and data from the EU-LFS and Eurostat database on work permits to non-EU workers, it estimates the effect of each Directive on the inflow of targeted third country nationals. Overall, the econometric analysis does not provide evidence of a direct impact of the implementation of either of the Directives on the inflow of targeted groups. Most member states did experience an increase in the inflow of non-EU high skilled workers after the adoption of the Blue Card Directive; however, this increase can be almost entirely explained by positive pre-existing trends in the inflow of this type of immigrants. Similarly, despite the increase in the number of permits issued to students and researchers from third countries in Europe, difference-in-differences estimates do not provide evidence of a direct effect of the implementation of the Student and Researcher Directive on changes in this type of inflows. The absence of a measurable impact of the three Directives analysed may be due to delayed effects of policy changes, which take time to filter into perception and thus affect immigrant inflows to Europe. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:181-en&r=mig |
| By: | Stefania Borelli (Dipartimento di Scienze Sociali ed Economiche, Sapienza-Università di Roma); Giuseppe De Arcangelis (Dipartimento di Scienze Sociali ed Economiche, Sapienza-Università di Roma) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effect of the immigration on the production structure in a selection of European countries in 2001-2009 with a task-based approach. The infl ow of immigrants represents an increase in the relative supply of manual-physical (or simple) tasks, hence favoring simple-task intensive sectors. We use a new OECD dataset, PIAAC, to calculate the index of simple-task intensity at the country-industry level. The analysis con rms that the increase in migration stocks caused a positive impact on the value added of sectors that use more intensively simple tasks. These effects are more intense when considering countries as Italy and Spain characterized by a recent, rapid and intense in flow of migrants. Endogeneity issues are discussed and instruments based on a gravity approach are used in estimation. |
| Keywords: | Rybczynski Effect, International Migration, PIAAC, Gravity Equation. |
| JEL: | F22 C25 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:4/16&r=mig |
| By: | Maurice Schiff |
| Abstract: | Immigrants or their children founded over 40% of the Fortune 500 US companies. This suggests that ‘ability drain’ is economically significant. While brain drain associated with migration also induces a brain gain, this cannot occur with ability drain. This paper examines migration’s impact on ability, education, and productive human capital or ‘skill’ (which includes both ability and education) for source country residents and migrants, under three different regimes: (i) a points system that accounts for educational attainment; (ii) a ‘vetting’ system that accounts for both ability and education or skill (e.g., the US H1-B visa program); and (iii) a points system that combines the points and vetting systems (as in Canada since 2015). It finds that migration reduces (raises) source country residents’ (migrants’) average ability and has an ambiguous (positive) impact on their average education and skill, with a net skill drain more likely than a net brain drain. These effects increase the more unequal is ability, i.e., the higher the variance in ability. The average ability drain for highly educated US immigrants from 42 developing source countries is 84 percent of the brain drain, a ratio that increases with source countries’ income and is greater than one for most Latin American and Caribbean countries. Heterogeneity in ability is the ultimate cause of both ability and brain drain (as they are equal to zero under homogeneous ability). Policy implications are provided. |
| Keywords: | Migration, points system, vetting system, ability drain, brain drain |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/22&r=mig |
| By: | BELLINO, Antonella (University of Foggia - Department of Economics); CELI, Giuseppe (University of Foggia - Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an exploration of the migration-trade nexus in the case of Italy over the period 2005-2010 by crossing the two dimensions of migration (immigration and emigration) and the two dimensions of intra-industry trade (vertical and horizontal). This empirical strategy turns out to be useful to improve interpretation of econometric results. In general, we find that both immigration and emigration are positively and significantly related to intra-industry trade. However, the magnitude and the statistical significance of migration’s impact on trade vary, depending on the type of trade flows considered (vertical or horizontal), the direction of migration (immigration or emigration) and the partner countries considered (OECD or non-OECD). In particular, we find that immigrants from non-OECD countries have a positive and significant impact both on “variety trade” and “quality trade”, immigrants from OECD countries affect significantly only “variety trade” and emigrants to non-OECD enhance only “variety trade” too. These results are largely consistent with predictions deriving from theoretical models of IIT and from the literature on migration-trade nexus. |
| Keywords: | International migration; Intra-industry trade; Economic integration; Human capital |
| JEL: | F12 F15 F22 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:0137&r=mig |
| By: | Petreski, Marjan |
| Abstract: | The objective of the paper is twofold: i) to investigate if living and working abroad has a meaningful role to play for the health of the return migrant; and ii) to understand if there are any spillovers of return-migrant member onto health conditions of the family members left behind. To that end, we use the DoTM Migration Survey 2009, as well a propensity score matching to address selectivity on observables and IV for the selectivity on unobservables. We also pursue interviews to contextualize the return migration – health nexus. Results suggest that when equalized on observables, return migrants have better health than non-migrants. Though, the reverse causality channel (less healthy individuals are more inclined to return) works to attenuate the true effect of return migration on health. Results further suggest a positive spillover effect of return migration on the health of the family members left behind, being mainly driven by the work of remittances sent while abroad, and not the returned wealth or the health knowledge transfer. |
| Keywords: | return migration, health, Macedonia |
| JEL: | F22 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2016-5&r=mig |
| By: | Reinhard Weisser |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on “Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe”. This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002 / 30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper was presented and discussed at the OECD Working Party on Migration in June 2015.The paper investigates the preferences and post-graduation mobility behaviour of international students, focusing on how the EU could succeed in attracting and keeping highly educated talent from across the globe. Providing their skills to European labour markets, graduates from outside the EU have a potential to enrich the supply of high-skilled labour. Seen as the 28 EU countries still constitute the most attractive destination area for studying abroad, the paper examines different calculation methods in order to generate stay rates for over 170 countries of origin. Empirical results indicate that for the EU as a whole, aggregate stay rates from stayers from all non-EU source countries lie within a range of 16.4% and 29.1%. They are also typically very low among students from other OECD countries, and much higher for students from less developed or politically less stable countries. The paper concludes by recommending a catalogue of measures to boost the EU's attractiveness, and to increase stay rates. Proposed policy measures draw on a smooth labour market integration of international graduates, as well as on cultivating strong points of the European countries, such as: political stability and participation possibilities, reliable institutions and governance structure, as well as an innovative and competitive environment. |
| JEL: | F22 I23 |
| Date: | 2016–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:186-en&r=mig |
| By: | Kevin Denny; Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | The paper employs recent data from the European Social Survey and Eurobarometer to place evolving Irish attitudes to immigration in comparative context. Particular attention is given to determinants of differences in attitudes by gender, xenophobia, and exaggerated impressions of the immigrant presence. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Gender; Xenophobia |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201604&r=mig |
| By: | Ekrame BOUBTANE; Jean-Christophe DUMONT; Christophe RAULT |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2393&r=mig |
| By: | Sekeris, Petros; Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the effect of massive refugees flows to the Greek islands on natives' political attitudes. Our results show a significant effect of refugees' presence on xenophobia. This outcome is robust under FE estimates and IV strategies. Furthermore the particular context of our study and the timing of the elections allow us to dismiss anti-immigration votes being casted for different motives than purely xenophobic reactions. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, refugee crisis, voting |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72222&r=mig |
| By: | Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Rios-Neto, Eduardo Luiz Goncalves; Potter, Joseph E. |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the impact of internal migration flows on the earnings of male workers. The availability of jobs and income levels in sending and receiving areas also influence internal population flows. Thus, migration is an endogenous variable that cannot be simply introduced as an exogenous variable when estimating labor outcomes. A methodological approach is developed to introduce migration into our models, dealing with the issue of reverse causality between migration and earnings. We implement this strategy using the 1970–2000 Brazilian Demographic Censuses. Our findings reflect our initial hypothesis, indicating that migration flows have a negative impact on male earnings, when considering cohort size as a factor. A ten percent increase in migration rates would have reduced the wages of competing workers by up to three percent in 2000. These methodological strategies can be applied to other countries that have similar available migration data. |
| Keywords: | internal migration, earnings, labour market, reverse causality, migration schedules |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1090&r=mig |
| By: | Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes use of the most recent social pension reform in rural China to examine whether receipt of the pension payment equips adult children of pensioners to migrate. Employing a regression discontinuity (hereafter RD) design to a primary longitudinal survey, this paper overcomes challenges in the literature that households eligible for pension payment might be systematically different from ineligible households and that it is difficult to separate the effect of pension from that of age or cohort heterogeneity. Around the pension eligibility age cut-off, results reveal large and significant increase among adult sons (but not daughters) to migrate out of their home county. Meanwhile, adult children are more likely to migrate out if their parents are healthy. Our Fuzzy RD estimations survive a standard set of key placebo tests and robustness checks. |
| Keywords: | rural pension, RD Design, adult children, migration |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10016&r=mig |