nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2016‒06‒09
six papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Intra-Rural Migration in Tanzania and Pathways of Welfare Change By Wineman, Ayala; Jayne, Thomas S.
  2. Driving Factors of Rural-Urban Migration in China By Melo, Grace; Ames, Glenn
  3. Estimating the Impact of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production and Migration in China By Gong Yazhen
  4. Comparing Wage Gains from Small and Mass Scale Immigrant Legalization Programs By Sankar Mukhopadhyay
  5. Poverty Risk among Older Immigrants in a Scandinavian Welfare State By Jakobsen, Vibeke; Pedersen, Peder J.
  6. The long-term macroeconomic effects of lower migration to the UK By Katerina Lisenkova; Miguel Sanchez-Martinez

  1. By: Wineman, Ayala; Jayne, Thomas S.
    Abstract: Migration between rural locations is prevalent in many developing countries and has been found to improve economic well-being in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper explores the pathways through which intra-rural migration affects welfare in rural Tanzania. Specifically, we investigate whether such migration enables migrants to access more land, higher quality land, or greater off-farm income generating opportunities that may, in turn, translate into improved welfare. Drawing on a longitudinal data set that tracks migrants to their destinations, we employ a difference-in-differences approach, validated with a multinomial treatment effects model, and find that migration confers a benefit in consumption to migrants. Results do not indicate that this advantage is derived from larger farms, though intra-rural migrants to more densely populated areas do seem to achieve more productive farmland at their destinations. Across all destinations, migrants are more likely to draw from off-farm and non-farm income sources, suggesting that even intra-rural migration represents a shift away from agriculture, and this is likely the dominant channel through which migrants benefit. We conclude that intra-rural migration merits greater attention in the discourse on rural development and structural transformation.
    Keywords: internal migration, land access, poverty, rural nonfarm economy, Tanzania, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, G61, I32, O15, Q15,
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Melo, Grace; Ames, Glenn
    Abstract: This study employs panel data to analyze the economic factors that drive rural-urban migration and agricultural labor supply within China. The results indicate that higher wages in urban areas, especially in the construction sector, was associated with rural-urban migration and a decline in the agricultural labor supply. The rural-urban wage differential in construction reflects the housing boom in cities set off by rapid urbanization and government policies. Most importantly, our findings raise concerns about the negative impact of rural-urban migration on agriculture in China. Policies that impact labor supply, especially in times of rapid urban development and low diffusion of agricultural technology, are critical to Chinese economic development and stability.
    Keywords: Internal migration, agricultural labor, Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital, O15, R23, J43,
    Date: 2016–05–23
  3. By: Gong Yazhen (School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China)
    Keywords: Weather Shocks,Agricultural Production,China
    Date: 2016–03
  4. By: Sankar Mukhopadhyay (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Reno)
    Abstract: In this paper I estimate the difference in wage gains from legalization between immigrants who were legalized on the basis of family ties, or smaller scale legalization programs, and those who were legalized in a large scale amnesty program (the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, IRCA). Estimates suggest that the increase in wage after legalization is 11.7% higher for immigrants who were legalized on the basis of family ties, or smaller scale legalization programs, compared to IRCA beneficiaries. Further analysis suggests that supply shock restricted the wage gains of male — but not female — IRCA beneficiaries. Results also show that previously illegal immigrants receive a lower return to U.S. education, and work experience acquired as illegal workers, than the return legal immigrants receive from similar U.S. experiences.
    Keywords: Immigration, Illegal Immigration, Legalization, Wage gain.
    JEL: J3 J6
    Date: 2016–05
  5. By: Jakobsen, Vibeke (Danish National Centre for Social Research (SFI)); Pedersen, Peder J. (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: Focus in the paper is on poverty among immigrants and refugees 50 years and older coming to Denmark from countries outside the OECD, with main emphasis on immigrants coming as guest workers before 1974, as refugees and as family members and marriage partners – tied movers – relative to individuals coming as guest workers and as refugees. A major share of people in this group were fairly young at arrival to Denmark. Those arriving back in the 1970s and 1980s are now either close to or above the age of 60, with conditional eligibility to a labor market related early retirement program or the age 65 where you become eligible for State pension. Poverty rates by national background are described using alternative household concepts. Next, a number of background factors of relevance for poverty are summarized. We focus on age, gender, marital status, occupational status at age 55 and duration of residence. We find major differences between migrant groups and between migrants and natives regarding how income is composed at different ages on market income, pensions and benefits. Next, we present a number of regressions aiming at explaining differences in the poverty risk with differences in a number of background factors.
    Keywords: immigrants, old age poverty, family structure
    JEL: F22 H55 I32 J14
    Date: 2016–05
  6. By: Katerina Lisenkova; Miguel Sanchez-Martinez
    Abstract: This paper looks at the possible scenarios of migration policy should the UK leave the EU. The paper uses an OLG model which brings together labour market, fiscal and other macroeconomic effects in one framework. It also adds a dynamic perspective, differentiates between natives and different categories of immigrants and captures age and qualification compositional effects. The paper compares the two migration scenarios: Leave and Remain. By 2065, in the Leave scenario, aggregate GDP and GDP per person are 9% and 1% respectively lower compared to Remain scenario. Reduced migration after leaving the EU has a negative impact on the public finances, because of higher dependency ratio. This requires an increase in taxation of about £400 per person (2014 pounds) in 2065. The results are sensitive to the assumptions that change productivity of the labour force and dependency ratio.
    Date: 2016–05

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