nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2015‒07‒18
seventeen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Smart Phones Support Smart Labor By Hübler, Michael; Hartje, Rebecca
  2. The Economics of Trafficking for Sexual Exploitation By Jakobsson, Niklas; Kotsadam, Andreas
  3. Moving Freely? Labour Mobility in ASEAN By Sarah Huelser; Adam Heal
  4. Back to Square One - Socioeconomic Integration of Deported Migrants By Anda David
  5. Immigration, Amnesties and the Shadow Economy By Emanuele Bracco; Luisanna Onnis
  6. Illegal Immigration and the Shadow Economy By Carmen Camacho; Fabio Mariani; Luca Pensieroso
  7. Is Internal Migration Slowing? An Analysis of Four Decades of NHSCR Records for England and Wales By Tony Champion; Ian Shuttleworth
  8. Are People Moving Home Less? An Analysis of Address Changing in England and Wales, 1971-2011, Using the ONS Longitudinal Study By Tony Champion; Ian Shuttleworth
  9. An Assessment of the Impact of Conservative Immigration Reform on the Labour Market Performance of Immigrants By Patrick, Grady
  10. Migrants and Natives in EU Labour Markets: Mobility and Job-Skill Mismatch Patterns By Stefan Jestl; Michael Landesmann; Sandra M. Leitner
  11. Educational Attainment and Labor Market Performance: an Analysis of Immigrants in France By Akguc, Mehtap; Ferrer, Ana
  12. Free Movement of Workers, Transitional Arrangements and Potential Mobility from Croatia By Isilda Mara; Hermine Vidovic
  13. Negative Attitudes, Network and Education By Bennett, Patrick; La Cour, Lisbeth; Larsen, Birthe; Waisman, Gisela
  14. How did Immigrants fare in the Irish Labour Market over the Great Recession? By Elish Kelly; Seamus McGuinness; Philip J. O'Connell; Alberto González Pandiella; David Haugh
  15. Migration and Social Insurance By Helmut CREMER; Catarina GOULÃO
  16. Can the performance gap between immigrant and non-immigrant students be closed? By OECD
  17. Remittances, Migration and Inclusive Growth: The Case of Nepal By Nephil Matangi Maskay; Shiva Raj Adhikari

  1. By: Hübler, Michael; Hartje, Rebecca
    Abstract: Besides enabling communication, mobile phones and smartphones support information flows and financial transactions, especially in developing countries, where the coverage of landline networks is limited. Drawing upon new data from rural households in Southeast Asia, this paper shows that mobile phone or smartphone ownership supports local employment and commuting while it reduces incentives for migration of workers.
    Keywords: smartphones; mobile phones; labor markets; labor mobility; economic development; Southeast Asia
    JEL: J61 O33 O53 R11
    Date: 2015–07
  2. By: Jakobsson, Niklas (Norwegian Social Research and Karlstad University,); Kotsadam, Andreas (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: International human trafficking of women for commercial sexual exploitation (henceforth trafficking) is an economic activity in which organizations try to make profits. Trafficking has been identified as a form of modern-day slavery and is a worldwide problem which has grown rapidly in the last decades. Despite this, the economics literature on trafficking is small, which is somewhat surprising given that the economics of immigration as well as the economics of crime are both large areas of research. We review the existing economics literature on trafficking with a particular focus on the gaps in this literature. We also describe the datasets that have been and can be used in studying trafficking and we point to future areas of research. We believe that economists have a lot to contribute to the knowledge of the determinants of trafficking and, as more and improved data becomes readily available, the possibilities for credible quantitative research in this area will grow.
    Keywords: Law and economics; Prostitution; Sexual exploitation; Sex slavery; Trafficking
    JEL: F22 J16 K14 O15
    Date: 2015–03–11
  3. By: Sarah Huelser (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)); Adam Heal (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP))
    Abstract: This policy brief reviews the level of labour market integration in ASEAN and assesses labour market reforms being undertaken as part of the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
    Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community, Mutual Recognition Agreements, migration, labour
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2014–06
  4. By: Anda David (PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa, IRD, UMR DIAL)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of socioeconomic integration of forced return migrants, focusing on the Maghreb countries. Starting from the hypothesis that the return has to be prepared, we test whether a disruption in the migration cycle (such as deportation) increases the individual’s vulnerability and affects his integration from both a structural and sociocultural point of view, using the 2006 MIREM survey. We find that forced returnees are more vulnerable to negative labour market outcomes compared to voluntary returnees. The absence of forced returnees from the labour market, or their underperformances, creates a net loss for the origin country and also incentives to re-migrate. The negative effect is statistically significant not only immediately after return, but also in the long run, at survey time. Forced return is also significantly and negatively correlated with sociocultural integration, reflecting a marginalization of deported migrants in their home environment, which may act as a re-emigration incentive. _________________________________ Dans ce papier j’analyse l’intégration socioéconomique des migrants qui sont forcés de rentrer dans leur pays d’origine, avec un focus sur les pays du Maghreb. Ayant comme point de départ l’hypothèse que le retour doit être préparé, je teste si une interruption dans le cycle migratoire (telle que l’expulsion) accroit la vulnérabilité des individus et impacte leur intégration, à la fois d’un point de vue structurel et socioculturel, en utilisant l’enquête MIREM. Les résultats montrent que les migrants expulsés sont plus vulnérables et réussissent moins bien sur le marché du travail dans le pays d’origine, par rapport aux migrants qui ont choisi volontairement de rentrer. L’exclusion des rapatriés forcés du marché du travail, ou leur situation précaire, représente une perte nette pour le pays d’origine et résulte en une plus forte incitation à ré-émigrer. L’effet négatif de l’expulsion sur les performances sur le marché du travail est statistiquement significatif juste après le retour, mais également à plus long terme, au moment de l’enquête. Le retour forcé est également significativement et négativement corrélé avec le degré d’intégration socioculturelle, reflétant une marginalisation des migrants expulsés dans leur environnement d’origine.
    Keywords: Return migration, forced migration, deportation, labour market, socioeconomic integration, Maghreb, Migration de retour, migration forcée, expulsion, marché du travail, intégration socioculturelle.
    JEL: F22 J24 O15 Z13
    Date: 2015–07
  5. By: Emanuele Bracco; Luisanna Onnis
    Abstract: This paper explores the link between the shadow economy and immigration. We per- form an empirical analysis on a newly compiled dataset of Italian immigration and shadow economy estimates for the years 1995-2006, also exploiting the discontinuity created by the 2002 Italian immigration reform, which granted legal status to almost 700,000 illegal immigrants. Our data comprise local aggregate statistical information on the labour market and the economy, and a repeated cross section of households sur- veyed by the Bank of Italy. We find a robust positive relationship between the presence of immigrants and the shadow economy. This link is substantially weakened by the 2002 amnesty.
    Keywords: Shadow Economy, Immigration, Immigration Policies, Amnesties
    JEL: H26 J61
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Carmen Camacho (CNRS and Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne); Fabio Mariani (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and IZA, Bonn); Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We build a general equilibrium model in which both illegal immigration and the size of the informal sector are endogenously determined and interact in a non-trivial way. We show that policy measures such as tax reduction and detection of informal activities can be used as substitutes for border enforcement, in order to contrast illegal immigration. In our framework, a welfare-maximising Government will never choose to drive illegal immigration to zero, but will set the tax rate to a lower value if it includes illegal immigration in its objective function.
    Keywords: Illegal immigration; Clandestine workers; Informal sector; Shadow economy; Black market; Taxation; Immigration policy
    JEL: O17 F22 J61
    Date: 2015–06–29
  7. By: Tony Champion; Ian Shuttleworth
    Abstract: This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses the inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales from the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) which provides continuous monitoring since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of business cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16-24 year olds in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of the university sector. The findings suggest that, unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. While there was a 3 per cent reduction in the overall rate of migration between the regions of England and Wales between 1975-1990 and 1996-2011 (omitting the 16-24s), the rate for within-region moves between areas was some 10 per cent higher in the latter period. The main evidence for decline relates to particular age groups of between-region migration, where the rate for those aged 65 and over shrank by a quarter and that for 0-15 year olds was down by a tenth. In general, however, if there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the shortest-distance (within area) moves that the NHSCR does not record.
    Keywords: Internal migration, Migration intensity, Between-area moves, Long-term trend, England and Wales
    JEL: J11 J61 O15 R23
    Date: 2015–07
  8. By: Tony Champion; Ian Shuttleworth
    Abstract: Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline in internal migration rates. Given the similarity in demographic, economic and social trends between the USA and the UK, this paper reports the results of research that investigates whether the latter has been experienced any similar change in more recent decades. Using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS) of linked census records, it examines the evidence provided by its 10-year migration indicator, with particular attention to a comparison of the first and latest decades available, 1971-1981 and 2001-2011. This suggests that, as in the USA, there has been a marked reduction in the level of shorter-distance (less than 10km) moving that has involved almost all types of people. In contrast to this and to US experience, however, the propensity of people to make longer-distance address changes between decennial censuses has declined much less, though the 2.6% fall between the 1970s and the 2000s may be an underestimate owing to the inclusion of moves to and from university in the latest decade. This finding is consistent with the results of a companion study which analysed data on migration between the health areas of England and Wales (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2015). There is therefore a strong case for now probing the causes of the sharp reduction in shorter-distance moving in Britain as well as the USA, as well as for investigating why the two countries differ in terms of their experience of longer-distance migration trends.
    Keywords: Internal migration, Migration intensity, Long-term trend, Longitudinal Study, England and Wales, Microdata
    JEL: J11 J61 O15 R23
    Date: 2015–07
  9. By: Patrick, Grady
    Abstract: This paper examines the performance of recent immigrants to Canada in the labour market as revealed in the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). This is an administrative database constructed by Statistics Canada by combining an administrative landing file from Citizenship and Immigration with the T1 Family File (T1FF) of income tax returns from the Canada Revenue Agency. As this database now extends to 2012, it provides the most current evidence on the impact on the labour market performance of recent immigrants of the relatively ambitious immigration reforms introduced by the Conservative Government. These reforms involved tighter criteria for skilled workers, an expansion of the Provincial Nominee Program, and a tightening up on refugee claims. The conclusion of the paper is that the overall performance of recent immigrants has improved enough to modestly reduce the wide earnings gap that has opened up between average recent immigrant and overall earnings. However, the reduction in the earnings gap has not been very large given the ambitiousness of the immigration policy reforms. There are many reasons for this, but the most important is that the Conservative Government has continued to pursue a policy of high mass immigration admitting around 250,000 new immigrants per year right through the 2008-09 recession. Ironically, while the Government has cut back on the number of relatively high performing skilled workers admitted, it has actually increased the number of live-in caregivers, and their families who predominantly are low earning. On the other hand, it is clear that if the Conservative Government had not tightened up immigration policy as aggressively as it did, particularly by eliminating the backlog of workers admitted under the old less stringent criteria, the labour market performance of immigrants would have probably deteriorated, instead of improving modestly as it did.
    Keywords: wages, recent immigrants to Canada, immigration policy, wages, recent immigrants to Canada, immigration policy, immigrant labour, human capital human capital
    JEL: J23 J24 J61
    Date: 2015–04–20
  10. By: Stefan Jestl; Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary This paper presents a descriptive account of labour mobility across the EU economies. The focus of the paper is on different patterns between migrants (‘foreign born’) and natives with regard to mobility, exploring in particular the potential of migrants to ‘grease the wheels’ (Borjas, 2001) of labour markets by either themselves showing higher mobility rates or impacting on the mobility patterns of natives or existing migrants themselves. The main indicators examined are the gross mobility and net employment creation rates (GERR and NECR respectively) taken over from Davis and Haltiwanger (1992, 1999). This paper contains a descriptive assessment while a companion paper (Landesmann and Leitner, 2015) undertakes an econometric analysis of the determinants of mobility patterns. We differentiate between the EU-15 and the NMS-8 and further between sub-regions (OMS-North, OMS-South, NMS-Central, Baltics). We analyse differences in mobility patterns in OMS and NMS as regards age groups, skill groups, gender, length of job tenure, etc. Apart from overall labour market mobility we also examine inter-regional and inter-sectoral mobility. A second part of the analysis covers measures of ‘job-skill (mis) matches’, again with a focus of analysing differences between migrants and natives in this respect.
    Keywords: labour mobility, European Union, worker flow analysis, employment reallocation, international migration, regional migration, labour turnover, job-skill mismatch
    JEL: F22 J61 J62 J63 R23
    Date: 2015–07
  11. By: Akguc, Mehtap; Ferrer, Ana
    Abstract: Using a recent survey of immigrants to France, we provide a detailed analysis of the educational attainment and labor market performance of various sub-population groups in France. Our results indicate that immigrants to France are less educated than the native born and that these differences can be tracked down to differences in socioeconomic background for most groups of immigrants. Similarly, there is a significant wage gap between immigrant and native-born workers, but this is reduced and sometimes disappears after correcting for selection into employment. In most cases the remaining differences in education and labor market outcomes seem related to the area of origin of the immigrant as well as where the education of the immigrant is obtained.
    Keywords: Immigration, France, educational attainment, labor market performance of immigrants
    JEL: F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2015–07–07
  12. By: Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary International migration from Croatia has a long tradition and has been diverse and complex. The labour migration initiated in the 1960s still has a lasting effect on subsequent migration flows, particularly with regard to destination countries. Despite transitional arrangements in place in the major destination countries – Germany, Austria, Italy and Slovenia – a preliminary assessment of recent data shows that employment of Croatian nationals in these countries (except Italy) has increased after Croatia’s EU accession. The main reasons for working abroad, as stated by potential movers, are the poor economic situation in Croatia, a better standard of living and higher career opportunities abroad as well as gaining work experience. The support of networks, e.g. friends, family and acquaintances living already in the country of destination, play a critical role for Croatian citizens wanting to work abroad and are important sources of information about job opportunities in other countries. Surveys indicate that potential migration in 2014 was much higher than it had been prior to accession. Typical (potential) migrants are young, unmarried, and highly educated. Different scenarios of potential migration have been projected. Under a scenario assuming the lifting of restrictions in accessing labour markets from July 2015, the stock of Croatian migrants is likely to increase by 217,000 (from 335,000 in 2013 to 552,000 in 2019). Accordingly, net migration because of the regime change is expected to be an additional 50,000 migrants compared to 167,000 projected under  a scenario assuming that the status quo will apply to the entire seven-year period (July 2013 to July 2020) of transitional arrangements. In terms of origin-country population, net migration would account for a share of 3.9% and 5.1%, respectively, under the lower/upper bound of projections. Nevertheless, the stock of Croatian migrants as a share of EU population will continue to remain relatively low, hardly exceeding 0.1% under the different scenarios. Croatian migrants are expected to continue to migrate mainly towards those EU Member States that have been historically their main destination countries.
    Keywords: mobility from Croatia, potential migration surveys, migration projections, gravity model
    JEL: J11 J61 F22
    Date: 2015–06
  13. By: Bennett, Patrick (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); La Cour, Lisbeth (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Larsen, Birthe (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Waisman, Gisela (Regeringskansliet, Stockholm)
    Abstract: This paper explores potential explanations behind the educational gap between young natives and immigrants using two measures, negative attitudes towards immigrants and networking, which may influence natives and immigrants differently. The paper considers, both theoretically and empirically, the impact of negative attitudes and networking taking into account that these parameters may influence high and uneducated workers as well as immigrants and natives differently, creating different incentives to acquire education for the two ethnic groups. Using rich Danish administrative data, this paper finds evidence that greater negative attitudes increase incentives for males to acquire education and that networking also increases immigrant education.
    Keywords: incentives; immigrants; education; attitudes
    JEL: I20 I24 J15
    Date: 2015–07–04
  14. By: Elish Kelly (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Seamus McGuinness (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Philip J. O'Connell (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin); Alberto González Pandiella (OECD, Paris); David Haugh (OECD, Paris)
    Abstract: Much research has been undertaken to study the effects of the Great Recession on overall labour market dynamics, but less is known about the impact on immigrants and how it has evolved over the business cycle. Understanding how immigrants were affected is particularly important for Ireland given the important role migrants play in the labour market. This paper attempts to fill this gap by identifying the labour market impact of the Great Recession on immigrants compared to natives and how this relationship has evolved since the downturn. In particular, we compare both groups’ likelihood of being employed and their risk of unemployment pre (2006), at the start of (2008) and during the depth of the employment crisis (2010 and 2012), and as the economy begun to recover (2014). In our analyses, we separately identify the impact of the recession on immigrants who have gained Irish citizenship through naturalisation, from those that retained their country of birth nationality. The main findings of the paper are twofold: i) The employment penalty suffered by immigrant workers, relative to native workers, increased significantly over the Irish recession and subsequent recovery. Differences in labour market outcomes between immigrants and natives were accentuated by the recession, when the employment penalty was the highest. The penalty narrowed in the recovery, although it remains higher than before the crisis; ii) The more recent evolution of the employment penalty appears to be related to a composition effect, as many refugee immigrants with weak labour market attachment became naturalised citizens during the recession. This suggests that the difficulties that some immigrants experience in the labour market would be under-estimated without taking due account of naturalisation processes, as is done in this paper for the first time in Ireland.
    Date: 2015–07–07
  15. By: Helmut CREMER (Toulouse School of Economics, GREMAQ, IDEI and Insitut Universitaire de France); Catarina GOULÃO (Toulouse School of Economics, GREMAQ, INRA)
    Abstract: Mobility across countries is often suspected to affect the coexistence of different social insurance systems. A wide variety of social protection systems exist within the EU. Some are of Beveridgean inspiration (with universal and more or less flat benefits), while others are mainly Bismarckian (with benefits related to past contributions). Concerns about the sustainability of the most generous and redistributive (Beveridgean) insurance systems are often based on the assumption of (near) perfect and costless mobility. In reality, labor mobility remains limited. Such low levels of migration rates could, mistakenly, lead to the conclusion that migration would currently not be affecting the redistributive social insurance systems. We address this issue in a two-country setting, where mobility is costly and where individuals differ in mobility cost (attachment to their native country). A Bismarckian insurance system is not affected by migration while a Beveridgean one is. Our results suggest that the race-to-the-bottom affecting tax rates may be more important under Beveridge-Beveridge competition than under Beveridge-Bismarck competition. Finally, we study the strategic choice of the type of social protection. We show that Bismarckian governments may find it beneficial to adopt a Beveridgean insurance system.
    Keywords: Social Insucrance, Tax Competition, Mobility, Economic integration
    JEL: H23 H70
    Date: 2014–03–01
  16. By: OECD
    Abstract: The share of students with an immigrant background increased between 2003 and 2012, both in traditional and new destination countries. The performance difference in mathematics between immigrant and non-immigrant students decreased, on average, between 2003 and 2012. Differences in socio-economic background explain less than half of the performance difference in mathematics between immigrant and non-immigrant students.
    Date: 2015–06
  17. By: Nephil Matangi Maskay (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)); Shiva Raj Adhikari (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP))
    Abstract: Many policymakers have shifted their focus away from a narrow concern with GDP growth towards a broader target of ‘inclusive growth.’ This concept is understood to encompass both a lasting reduction in absolute poverty and a more equitable distribution of the gains from growth. This paper reviews the unique experience of Nepal, a land-locked least developed country in South Asia, bringing out lessons from the Nepalese experience which have wider applicability. In Nepal, as in other countries, increasing attention is being given to the inclusivity of growth. In particular, we observe the importance of remittances in reducing poverty in Nepal. But the impacts of remittances and migration on poverty should not be understood only in relation to increased household incomes and consumption. Rather, a more holistic understanding is necessary that considers how remittances can shape social behavior more broadly, including by raising expectations and increasing opportunities.
    Keywords: Inclusive growth, poverty reduction, Economic, gender
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2013–09

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