nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2014‒09‒05
eleven papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University

  1. Immigration, occupational choice and public employment By Luca Marchiori; Patrice Pieretti; Benteng Zou
  2. Immigration, Enterprises, and Employment in the European Union By Murat Genc; Selim Cagatay; Onur A. Koska; Perihan O. Saygin
  3. Labour Market Progression of Canadian Immigrant Women By Alicia Adsera; Ana Ferrer
  4. Migration, Diasporas and Culture: an Empirical Investigation By Paul Collier; Anke Hoeffler
  5. Job Networks in Izmir: Why are Migrants Different? By Idil Goksel; Alper Duman
  6. Worker Mobility in a Global Labor Market: Evidence from the United Arab Emirates By Suresh Naidu; Yaw Nyarko; Shing-Yi Wang
  7. Echoes of the crises in Spain and US in the Colombian labor market: a differences-in-differences approach By María Dolores de la Mata; Luis Eduardo Arango; Nataly Obando
  8. Modelling Migration in an OLG Framework: the Case of UK Migration Policy By Katerina Lisenkova; Marcel Mérette
  9. Gross Migration, Housing and Urban Population Dynamics By Marcelo Veracierto; Jonas Fisher; Morris Davis
  10. Vietnamese Inter – regional labor migration: system approach to the modeling 1989, 1999, 2009. By Tadashi Kikuchi
  11. Immigration and Economic Growth By Robert E. Wright; Katerina Lisenkova; Marcel Merette

  1. By: Luca Marchiori (Central Bank of Luxembourg); Patrice Pieretti (CREA, Université de Luxembourg); Benteng Zou (CREA, Université de Luxembourg)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the theoretical effects of immigration in an occupa- tional choice model with three sectors: a low-skilled, a high-skilled and a pu- blic sector. The originality of our approach is to consider (i) intersectoral mobi- lity of labor and (ii) public employment. We highlight the fact that including a public sector is crucial, since omitting it implies that low-skilled immigration un- ambiguously reduces wages and welfare of all workers. However, when public employment is considered, we demonstrate that immigration increases wages in the high-skilled and the public sectors, provided that the immigrant workforce is not too large and the access to public jobs is not too easy. The average wage of natives may also increase accordingly. Moreover, immigration may improve workers' welfare in each sector. Finally, the mechanism underlying these results does not require complementarity between natives and immigrants,
    Keywords: Immigration, occupational choice model, public employment
    JEL: J24 J61 J45 H44
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Murat Genc; Selim Cagatay; Onur A. Koska; Perihan O. Saygin
    Abstract: We study the effects of ethnic diversity, measured by the share of immigrants in the total population in the EU member countries, on the number of establishments and employment in the EU. We distinguish between different industries and between different groups of source (migrant-sending) countries; i.e., Eastern European Countries (EECs) and Mediterranean Countries (MPCs). We use a panel data that covers the period 1988-2010, and find that migration from MPCs to the EU has a positive impact on both the number of enterprises and employment, especially in light manufacturing industries. Also migration from MPCs to the EU positively affects employment in construction and heavy manufacturing industries. Similarly, migration from EECs to the EU positively affects employment, especially in food and beverages industries. See above See above
    Keywords: NA, Impact and scenario analysis, Impact and scenario analysis
    Date: 2013–06–21
  3. By: Alicia Adsera (Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University); Ana Ferrer (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)
    Abstract: We use the confidential files of the 1991-2006 Canadian Census, combined with information from O*NET on the skill requirements of jobs, to explore whether Canadian immigrant women behave as secondary workers, remaining marginally attached to the labour market and experiencing little career progression over time. Our results show that the labor market patterns of female immigrants to Canada do not fit the profile of secondary workers, but rather conform to patterns recently exhibited by married native women elsewhere, with rising participation (and wage assimilation). At best, only relatively uneducated immigrant women in unskilled occupations may fit the profile of secondary workers, with slow skill mobility and low-status job-traps. Educated immigrant women, on the other hand, experience skill assimilation over time: a reduction in physical strength and an increase in analytical skills required in their jobs relative to those of natives.
    Keywords: skill assimilation, labour market outcomes of immigrant women, wage gaps, female labor force participation, Canadian migration
    JEL: J01 J61 F22
    Date: 2014–08
  4. By: Paul Collier; Anke Hoeffler
    Abstract: Using global data we examine the dynamics of migration from developing to developed countries. Origin and destination countries are characterized by substantial differences in incomes, political rights and cultures. Incentives as well as costs shape the decision to migrate. One powerful dynamic effect is that diasporas increase migration, mainly because they lower the cost of migration. Diasporas assist the next wave of migrants by overcoming the high cost of the emigration, in particular when the origin country is far away and poor. The interaction between the diaspora and cultural distance is also significant. Diasporas in culturally distant countries appear to be particularly useful in overcoming the cost of migration. Culturally distant diasporas are less likely to assimilate and maintain closer links with their country of origin, while diasporas from culturally similar countries are more likely to assimilate and thus be less useful to potential new migrants.
    Keywords: Migration, development, culture
    JEL: O15 Z1
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Idil Goksel; Alper Duman
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the network effect on the probability of job finding. This paper uses a specific data set from the Izmir region, prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute for a specific project carried out by Izmir University of Economics in cooperation with the Izmir Commerce Centre, the Izmir branch of the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Turkish Labour Institute. Its aim was to investigate the labour market situation of Izmir and to understand the main problems of labour market and reasons of unemployment and suggest possible policy implications. During this study we found that the migrants who have moved to Izmir five years or more ago have higher probability to find a job than Izmir born ones. The same argument is also valid for the ones who moved less than two years ago. Only the ones that have moved 2-5 years ago have less chance to find a job. These trends show also difference according to the gender. Furthermore, it is found that migrants tend to earn more relative to the natives. This variety made us think that it will be interesting to analyze this subject a bit deeper. Izmir is the third biggest city in Turkey and has been one of the preferred destinations of migrants. Izmir attracts both skilled and unskilled migrants. Moreover, we believe doing such an analysis at a local level is more promising than doing it in the state level, as it will be easier to isolate the network effects in local level. The paper aims to analyze how the network effect differs between skilled and unskilled people and the nonlinearity in the network effects. It is assumed that the more time spent in a city, the larger is the network and quality of the network connections depend on the job seeker’s qualifications. Using Armengol and Jackson (2007) theoretical model and the empirical framework of Munshi (2003), a probit model that estimates the probability of being employed is used. In the model personal characteristics, the sectors, and the number of years spent in Izmir are controlled for. Moreover, the education levels and occupations of the parents are used as proxies for the size and the quality of the network. It is expected to find nonlinearity in network effects. We also expect to find higher influence of quality of network with respect to its dimension. It will be also interesting to investigate whether network effects differ according to the gender or not.
    Keywords: Turkey, Labor market issues, Regional modeling
    Date: 2013–06–21
  6. By: Suresh Naidu; Yaw Nyarko; Shing-Yi Wang
    Abstract: In 2011, a reform in the United Arab Emirates allowed any employer to renew a migrant's visa upon contract expiration without written permission from the initial employer. We find that the reform increased incumbent migrants' earnings and firm retention of these workers. This occurs despite an increase in employer transitions, and is driven by a fall in country exits. While the outcomes of workers already in the United Arab Emirates improved, our analysis suggests that the reform decreased demand for new migrant workers and lowered their earnings. These results are consistent with a model in which the reform reduces the monopsony power of firms.
    JEL: J42 J6 O15 O53
    Date: 2014–08
  7. By: María Dolores de la Mata; Luis Eduardo Arango; Nataly Obando
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence of the effect of the recent phases of the business cycle in Spain and United States, proxied by their respective unemployment rates, on the labor market of Colombian cities with high migration tradition. These countries are the main destination for labor Colombian migrants. Using information from the household survey between 2006 and 2011 for urban areas in Colombia and a differences-in-differences approach we find that unemployment rates of those countries negatively affect the probability and the amount of remittances received by Colombian households living in areas with high and moderate migration tradition. At a second stage we provide evidence that unemployment rates of those countries positively affect the labor force participation decisions in Colombian regions with the highest migration tradition.
    Keywords: migration, remittances, labor participation, Spanish and United States unemployment rates.
    JEL: C21 J21 J22
    Date: 2014–08–20
  8. By: Katerina Lisenkova; Marcel Mérette
    Abstract: This paper uses an OLG CGE model for the UK to illustrate the long-term effect on migration on the macroeconomy. As an illustration we use current UK government's migration target to reduce net migration "from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands". Achieving this target would require to reduce recent net migration numbers by a factor of 2. In our simulations we compare the impact of demographic shock based on the principal ONS population projections with the lower migration scenario, which assumes that migration rates are reduced by 50%. Our results show that such a significant reduction in net migration has strong negative effect on the economy. Both level of GDP and GDP per capita fall during the simulation period. Moreover this policy has significant negative impact on public finances. As a result of growing gap between government revenues and spending, public debt increases by 8 percentage points of GDP in case or lower migration. See above See above
    Keywords: UK, General equilibrium modeling, Impact and scenario analysis
    Date: 2013–06–21
  9. By: Marcelo Veracierto (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Jonas Fisher (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Morris Davis (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: Cities experience significant, near random walk productivity shocks, yet population is slow to adjust. In practice local population changes are dominated by variation in net migration, and we argue that understanding gross migration is essential to quantify how net migration may slow population adjustments. Housing is also a natural candidate for slowing population adjustments because it is dicult to move, costly to build quickly, and a large durable stock makes a city attractive to potential migrants. We quantify the influence of migration and housing on urban population dynamics using a dynamic general equilibrium model of cities which incorporates a new theory of gross migration motivated by patterns we uncover in a panel of US cities. After assigning values to the model's parameters with an exactly identified procedure, we demonstrate that its implied dynamic responses to productivity shocks of population, gross migration, employment, wages, home construction and house prices strongly resemble those we estimate with our panel data. The empirically validated model implies that costs of attracting workers to cities drive slow population adjustments. Housing plays a very limited role.
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Tadashi Kikuchi
    Abstract: Author used the data of Vietnam Population Census 1989, 1999, 2009 and estimated inter regional labor migration function of Vietnam. Based on the method of system approach of Poot (1986), author adapted it to Vietnamese data and also studied the convergence speed of the migration function. The method of system approach is applied to the Vietnam Population Census Data 1989, 1999, 2009. Estimation of migration function is OLS methods. More information is mentioned in attached summary. Author states here, in brief, four interesting findings in the paper. (1)Apart from dynamical in and out migration all over the country, Vietnam, from the end of 1980s to the early of 2000s, author shows the evidence that there exists regional inflow and out flow of migrations between Hochiminh city and its neighbor provinces. (2)There exists a decrease, “slow down,” of the influence on the in – migration power in all provinces in Vietnam. For example, during the years that economic recession was covering over developing countries from 1990s to the early of 2000s, high regional average income became less attractive to make labor force in – migrate from outside into the region/province. (3)Coincidently, neighbor provinces of Hochimonh, such as Dong Nai, Binh Duong, started industrialization and regional development from 1990s to the early of 2000s. This resulted in an inverse labor inflow from the region with high income Hochiminh city to regions with low income neighbor provinces of Hochimonh. (4)Based on these finding, author then extended the model to study on long term labor migration. Author estimated ECM, error correction model, and showed that the coefficient of convergence to the long term model is – 0.534. It means that Vietnamese migration would converge by nine ty percent until 2020, and ninety nine percent until 2050.
    Keywords: Vietanman, Developing countries, Regional modeling
    Date: 2014–07–03
  11. By: Robert E. Wright; Katerina Lisenkova; Marcel Merette
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical estimates of the impact of immigration on economic growth. A dynamic overlapping generations computable general equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model is used for this purpose. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered. The model is calibrated for Scotland. Scotland is an interesting case study since it is likely that both the population and the labour force will decrease in size considerably in the future. In addition, the population is expected to age rapidly over the coming decades. The analysis suggests that modest levels of net-migration, driven by higher levels of immigration, are associated with considerably higher levels of economic growth. See above See above
    Keywords: NA, General equilibrium modeling, Growth
    Date: 2013–06–21

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