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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Brian Fabo; Martin Kahanec |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the migration response of the youth from new EU member states to disparate conditions in an enlarged European Union at the onset of the Great Recession. We use the Eurobarometer data and probabilistic econometric models to identify the key drivers of the intention to work in another member state of European Economic Area (EEA) and their expected duration. We find that migration intentions are high among those not married and among males with children, but both categories are also overrepresented among people with only temporary as opposed to long-term or permanent migration plans. Whereas age affects migration intentions negatively, education has no effect on whether working abroad is envisaged. However, conditional on envisaging to work abroad, completion of education (if after 16th birthday) is associated with long-term (at least five years), but not permanent, migration plans. Finally, we find that socio-demographic variables explain about as much variation of migration intentions as self-reported push and pull factors and migration constraints. |
| Keywords: | EU labor markets, migration, youth, EU enlargement, labor mobility, free movement of workers, transitional arrangements, new member states, European Union |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2013–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:6&r=mig |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically the role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) as determinants of migration inflows for 29 OECD countries in the period 1998-2008. By increasing information about signatory countries, PTAs are expected to drive migration flows towards member countries. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration, I estimate a modified gravity model on migration flows providing evidence of a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I also consider the content of PTAs as a further determinant of migration, finding that visa-and-asylum and labour market related provisions, when included in PTAs, stimulate bilateral migration flows. Finally, by comparing the average effects of PTAs on migration flows and on trade, I show that PTAs stimulate bilateral migration flows more than trade in final goods. PTAs might be used by government to increase inflows of immigrant workers in the case of labour shortages or population ageing. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Trade Policy, Migration Policy, PTAs |
| JEL: | F22 F13 F53 F16 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:111&r=mig |
| By: | Ekrame BOUBTANE; Dramane COULIBALY; C. RAULT |
| Abstract: | This paper examines empirically the interaction between immigration and host country economic conditions. We employ a panel VAR techniques to use a large annual dataset on 22 OECD countries over the period 1987-2009. The VAR approach allows to addresses the endogeneity problem by allowing the endogenous interaction between the variables in the system. Our results provide evidence of migration contribution to host economic prosperity (positive impact on GDP per capita and negative impact on aggregate unemployment, native- and foreign-born unemployment rates). We also find that migration is influenced by host economic conditions (migration responds positively to host GDP per capita and negatively to host total unemployment rate). |
| Keywords: | immigration, growth, Unemployment, panel VAR |
| JEL: | J61 F22 E20 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1424&r=mig |
| By: | Ekrame BOUBTANE; Dramane COULIBALY; C. RAULT |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Konya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980-2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth. |
| Keywords: | immigration, growth, Unemployment, Granger causality |
| JEL: | J61 F22 E20 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1426&r=mig |
| By: | Kiguchi, Takehiro; Mountford, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Immigration has been a significant part of US population growth over recent decades, with the number of ``foreign born to non-US nationals" rising from approximately 10 million in 1970 to nearly 40 million or 12.9% of the US total population in 2010. In this paper, using a VAR with sign restriction identification, we find that unexpected increases in the working population lead to temporary reductions in GDP per capita and consumption per capita as would be predicted by the standard neoclassical growth model. However they do not lead to increases in non-residential investment or short run decreases in real wages as would also be predicted. The paper shows how a neoclassical growth model with a CES production function where migrant labor and capital are complements to skilled domestic labor and substitutes to each other can produce responses closer to those in the VAR. The paper thus provide support for the microeconometric studies on the impacts of immigration which found that immigrant labor is complementary to, rather than a substitute for, most native labor. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, Immigration |
| JEL: | E0 E2 E26 F2 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:45517&r=mig |
| By: | Ekrame BOUBTANE; Hippolyte D'ALBIS; Dramane COULIBALY |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une évaluation quantitative des interactions entre d'une part, le Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) par habitant et le taux de chômage, et d'autre part, l'immigration permanente en France métropolitaine sur la période 1994-2008. L'immigration est mesurée par les titres de séjour de plus d'un an accordés aux étrangers en provenance des pays tiers et est décomposée par motifs d'admission. L'estimation de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs (VAR) donne les résultats suivants. Le taux d'immigration, et en particulier d'immigration familiale, a un effet positif et significatif sur le PIB par habitant, tandis que les effets de l'immigration sur le chômage ne sont pas significatifs. Par ailleurs, le PIB par habitant a un effet positif et significatif sur le taux d'immigration et le taux de chômage à un effet négatif et significatif sur le taux d'immigration de travail. |
| Keywords: | immigration, croissance, Modèles VAR |
| JEL: | J61 F22 E20 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1425&r=mig |