nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2012‒11‒17
ten papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
Australian National University

  1. Explaining Differences between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes By Gerard van den Berg; Michèle A. Weynandt
  2. Relative Quality of Foreign Nurses in the United States By Patricia Cortés; Jessica Pan
  3. Higher Education, Merit-Based Scholarships and Post-Baccalaureate Migration By Maria D. Fitzpatrick; Damon Jones
  4. International Migration as Occupational Mobility By Dean R. Lillard; Anna Manzoni
  5. Twenty years of internal migration in Italy. Answers from some economic and non-economic determinants By Mariangela Bonasia
  6. The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post-War Germany By Thomas Bauer; Sebastian Braun; Michael Kvasnicka
  7. Migration impact assessment: A state of the art By Nijkamp, P.; Poot, H.J.
  8. Returns to Regional Migration: Causal Effect or Selection on Wage Growth? By Fabian Kratz; Josef Brüderl
  9. Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect? By Felbermayr, Gabriel; Grossmann, Volker; Kohler, Wilhelm
  10. Human capital mobility and convergence : a spatial dynamic panel model of the German regions By Kubis, Alexander; Schneider, Lutz

  1. By: Gerard van den Berg; Michèle A. Weynandt
    Abstract: This paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the GSOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.
    Keywords: Duration analysis, international migration, hedonic forecasting, utility misprediction
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Patricia Cortés (School of Management, Boston University); Jessica Pan (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: In recent years, the US has become increasingly reliant on foreign registered nurses to satisfy health care demands. The Philippines has emerged as the single largest source of nurses educated abroad, representing more than half of foreign nurses entering the US in the last decade. One of the main concerns raised by the importation of nurses is the quality of care that they provide. This paper addresses this question by analyzing the relative quality of foreign educated nurses and its evolution over time using Census data from 1980 to 2010 and wages as a measure of skill. We find a positive wage premium for nurses educated in the Philippines, but not for foreign nurses educated elsewhere. This premium cannot be explained by differences in demographics, education, work experience, location, or detailed job characteristics. The assimilation profile of Filipino nurses and the types of hospitals that hire them strongly suggest that the premium reflects quality differences and not just unobserved characteristics of the job that carry a higher wage but are unrelated to skill. We provide evidence that the wage premium is likely to be driven by strong positive selection into nursing among Filipinos resulting from the high and heterogeneous returns to the occupation generated by active government support for the migration of nurses in the Philippines.
    Keywords: Nurses, Migration, Selection, Skills.
    JEL: J61 J24 J44
    Date: 2012–11
  3. By: Maria D. Fitzpatrick; Damon Jones
    Abstract: Many merit-based scholarships for college are administered at the state level, targeted to in-state residents and require attendance at an in-state institution. Though these subsidies have the potential to affect lifetime education and migration decisions, much of the literature to date has focused on just one or two outcomes (e.g. college attendance and completion) and one or two states (e.g. Georgia). Given that one of the stated goals of these programs is to increase the quality of a state's workforce, understanding the long-term effects of merit-based scholarships on mobility is crucial for evaluating their effectiveness. In this paper, we utilize the broader expansion and long history of these programs to build a comprehensive picture of how merit aid scholarship availability affects residential migration and educational attainment. To do this, we incorporate data on the introduction of broad-based merit aid programs for fifteen states and Census data on all 24 to 32 year olds in the U.S. from 1990 to 2010. We use variation in merit aid eligibility across cohorts and within states to identify treatment effects. Eligibility for merit aid programs slightly increases the propensity of state natives to live in-state, while also extending enrollment in-state into the late twenties. These patterns notwithstanding, the magnitude of merit aid effects is of an order of magnitude smaller than the population treated, suggesting that nearly all of the spending on these programs is transferred to individuals who do not alter educational or migration behavior.
    JEL: H7 I2 R23
    Date: 2012–11
  4. By: Dean R. Lillard; Anna Manzoni
    Abstract: We investigate whether Germans immigrants to the US work in higher-status occupations than they would have had they remained in Germany. We account for potential bias from selective migration. The probability of migration is identified using life-cycle and cohort variation in economic conditions in the US. We also explore whether occupational choices vary for Germans who migrated as children or as adults. Our results allow us to decompose observed differences in occupational status of migrants and non migrants into the part explained by selection effects and the part that is causal, extending the literature on international migration.
    JEL: J24 J61 J62
    Date: 2012
  5. By: Mariangela Bonasia (-)
    Abstract: The aim of the paper is to examine the determinants of interregional migration in Italy. In addition to the conventional variables used to explain migration decision, the impact of housing prices and externalities variables were studied. The period considered is 1985-2006, during which different migration trends took place. Using a GMM dynamic panel, the results show that this model, due to the complexity of the internal migration process, omits some important economic and non-economic variables and may not be representative of migration flow in Italy. Furthermore, the analysis confirms the perception that in different periods could be different also the reasons behind the migration decision.
    Keywords: Internal Migration; Panel Data, House Prices
    JEL: C23 R23
    Date: 2012–06–19
  6. By: Thomas Bauer (Ruhr-University Bochum, RWI, IZA); Sebastian Braun (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Michael Kvasnicka (RWI, IZA)
    Abstract: The flight and expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe during and after World War II constitutes one of the largest forced population movements in history. We analyze the economic integration of these forced migrants and their offspring in West Germany. The empirical results suggest that even a quarter of a century after displacement, first generation migrants and native West Germans that were comparable before the war perform strikingly different. Migrants have substantially lower incomes and are less likely to own a house or to be self-employed. Displaced agricultural workers, however, have significantly higher incomes. This income gain can be explained by faster transitions out of low-paid agricultural work. Differences in the labor market performance of second generation migrants resemble those of the first generation. We also find that displacement considerably weakens the intergenerational transmission of human capital between fathers and children, especially at the lower tail of the skill distribution.
    Keywords: Forced Migration, Economic Integration, World War II, West Germany.
    JEL: J61 O15 R23
    Date: 2012–11
  7. By: Nijkamp, P.; Poot, H.J.
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Fabian Kratz; Josef Brüderl
    Abstract: Human capital theory predicts pecuniary returns to regional migration, but also positive self-selection of migrants. Therefore, when estimating the causal effect of migration one has to take care of potential self-selection. Several authors recommend using fixed effects models thereby controlling for time constant unobserved heterogeneity. However, if selection operates not only on wage level but also on wage growth conventional fixed effects models are also biased. In this paper we want to investigate, whether migrants are self-selected on wage growth and if this biases conventional fixed effects estimates of the returns to migration. We use data from the SOEP 1984-2010. First we analyze the time pattern of the wage differential between migrants and stayers to see whether they are on different wage trajectories. Second we introduce a fixed effects model with individual slopes to investigate whether conventional results are biased.
    Keywords: regional migration, causal- and selection-effects, selection on wage growth
    JEL: C33 J61 R23
    Date: 2012
  9. By: Felbermayr, Gabriel (University of Munich); Grossmann, Volker (University of Fribourg); Kohler, Wilhelm (University of Tuebingen)
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide an overview of the relationship between international migration and international trade as well as capital movements. After taking a brief historical perspective, we first investigate migration flows between two countries in a static, neoclassical context. We allow for a disaggregated view of migration that distinguishes between different types of labor and emphasizes the distinction between migration flows and pre-existing stocks. We focus on different welfare channels, on internal income distribution, international income convergence and on whether migration and trade are substitutes or complements. Complementarity/substitutability hinges on whether countries share the same technology, and the pivotal question is whether or not technology is convex. Generally, under substitutability between trade and migration and with convex technology, globalization tends to lead to convergence. Moreover, under non-convex technology trade and migration tend to be complements. Turning to dynamic models with capital adjustment costs and capital mobility, the same is true for the relationship between migration and capital flows. Nevertheless, in neoclassical models, we may observe emigration at the same time as capital accumulates during the transition to a steady state. Moreover, we can explain reverse migration. We also touch upon the effects of migration on the accumulation of both knowledge and human capital, by invoking endogenous growth theory. Finally, we review the empirical literature exploring the link between migration and trade. The discussion is based on the so called gravity model of trade, in which trade between pairs of countries is related to measures of their respective sizes, preferences, and trade costs. We revisit the identification of the overall trade-creating effect of migration and its break-down into the trade channel and the preference channel. We clarify the role of product differentiation for the size of estimated effects, discuss the role of immigrants' education and occupation, and emphasize direct and indirect networks and their trade-enhancing potential.
    Keywords: migration, international trade, capital movements, capital formation, globalization
    JEL: F1 F2 F4
    Date: 2012–10
  10. By: Kubis, Alexander (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schneider, Lutz
    Abstract: "Since the fall of the iron curtain in 1989, the migration deficit of the Eastern part of Germany has accumulated to 1.8 million people, which is over 10 percent of its initial population. Depending on their human capital endowment, these migrants might either - in the case of low-skilled migration - accelerate or - in high-skilled case - impede convergence. Due to the availability of detailed data on regional human capital, migration and productivity growth, we are able to test how geographic mobility affects convergence via the human capital selectivity of migration. With regard to the endogeneity of the migration flows and human capital, we apply a dynamic panel data model within the framework of ß-convergence and account for spatial dependence. The regressions indicate a positive, robust, but modest effect of a migration surplus on regional productivity growth. After controlling for human capital, the effect of migration decreases; this decrease indicates that skill selectivity is one way that migration impacts growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Binnenwanderung, Qualifikationsniveau, regionale Disparität, Konvergenz, Zuwanderung, Abwanderung, Ostdeutschland, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland
    JEL: R23 R11 C23
    Date: 2012–09–24

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