nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2011‒01‒03
28 papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
Australian National University

  1. The effect of education on migration: Evidence from school reform By Böckerman, Petri; Haapanen, Mika
  2. Statistical Discrimination, Productivity and the Height of Immigrants By Shing-Yi Wang
  3. African Leaders: Their Education Abroad and FDI Flows By Amelie Constant; Bienvenue N. Tien
  4. Selective Immigration Policies, Migrants' Education and Welfare at Origin By Bertoli, Simone; Brücker, Herbert
  5. The impact of MENA-to-EU migration in the context of demographic change By Frédéric Docquier; Luca Marchiori
  6. District-level Spatial Analysis of Migration Flows in Ghana: Determinants and Implications for Policy By Tsegai, Daniel; Le, Quang Bao
  7. Immigration and the Growing Canada-U.S. Productivity Gap By Grady, Patrick
  8. Migration Decisions in Arctic Alaska: Empirical Evidence of the Stepping Stones Hypothesis By Lance Howe; Lee Huskey
  9. Diaspora effects in international migration: key questions and methodological issues By Michel Beine; Frédéric Docquier; Caglar Ozden
  10. Policy Repercussions of âThe New Economics of the Brain Drainâ By Stark, Oded
  11. Immigration, integration and terrorism: is there a clash of cultures? By Fischer, Justina AV
  12. The State of the Luxembourg’s Welfare State: the Effects of the Crisis on a Corporatist Model Shifting to a Universalistic Model. By HARTMANN HIRSCH Claudia
  13. Anticipations effects in endogeneous probability-migration models By Manuel Garçon; Josselin Garnier; Abdennebi Omrane
  14. Labor Market Developments in China: A Neoclassical View By Ge, Suqin; Yang, Dennis
  15. "A Demographic Base for Ethnic Survival? Blending Across Four Generations of German-Americans" By Joel Perlmann
  16. Urban accounting and welfare By Klaus Desmet; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
  17. Economic Preferences and Attitudes of the Unemployed: Are Natives and Second Generation Migrants Alike? By Constant, Amelie F.; Krause, Annabelle; Rinne, Ulf; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  18. Reservation Wages of First and Second Generation Migrants By Constant, Amelie F.; Krause, Annabelle; Rinne, Ulf; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  19. Ethnic Minorities in the European Union: An Overview By Kahanec, Martin; Zaiceva, Anzelika; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  20. An Expert Stakeholder's View on European Integration Challenges By Constant, Amelie F.; Kahanec, Martin; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  21. A Policy Agenda for Diversity and Minority Integration By Kahanec, Martin; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  22. Longitudinal evidence on financial expectations in Albania: Do remittances matter? By Laetitia Duval; François-Charles Wolff
  23. Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances on Output Growth: Evidence from Turkey By Tansel, Aysit; Yaşar, Pınar
  24. Workers' Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence By Adolfo Barajas; Ralph Chami; Dalia Hakura; Peter Montiel
  25. Zur Analyse internationaler Migrationsprozesse. Makro-quantitative Perspektiven und eine vergleichende Fallstudie über die Lage der türkischen Community in Österreich. By Tausch, Arno
  26. Ethnische Vielfalt und Arbeitsmarkterfolg By Ulf Rinne; Simone Schüller; Klaus F. Zimmermann
  27. Sârbii – imigranţi şi emigranţi în comitatul Arad în secolul al XVIII-lea By Ghita, Eugen
  28. L’analyse par cohorte au Luxembourg. Les limites de la méthodes dans un pays d’immigration : illustration à partir des données de l’European Values Study By FLEURY Charles

  1. By: Böckerman, Petri; Haapanen, Mika
    Abstract: A polytechnic, higher education reform took place in Finland in the 1990s. It gradually transformed former vocational colleges into polytechnics and expanded higher education to all Finnish regions. We implement instrumental variables estimators that exploit the exogenous variation in the regional availability of polytechnic education together with matriculation exam scores. Our IV results show that polytechnic graduates have a higher migration probability than those of vocational college graduates. However, a master’s degree did not increase migration propensity in comparison with a polytechnic degree. We also find that an increase in the availability of polytechnic education did not reduce migration.
    Keywords: Migration; higher education; polytechnic reform; IV estimation
    JEL: I20 J10 J61 R23
    Date: 2010–12–21
  2. By: Shing-Yi Wang
    Abstract: The analysis focuses on immigrants and native-born individuals because employers are likely to have less reliable signals of productivity for an immigrant than a native-born individual. Using multiple data sets, the paper presents a robust empirical finding that the wage gains associated with height are almost twice as large for immigrants than for native-born individuals. [Working Paper No. 289].
    Keywords: statistical discrimination, native-born, employers, productivity, immigrants, wage, height, individuals, data sets, economic research,
    Date: 2010
  3. By: Amelie Constant; Bienvenue N. Tien
    Abstract: Leaders are critical to a country's success. They can influence domestic policy via specific measures that they enforce, and they can also influence international public opinion towards their country. Foreign Direct Investments are also essential for a country's economic growth. Our hypothesis is that foreign-educated leaders attract more FDI to their country. Our rationale is that education obtained abroad encompasses a whole slew of factors that can make a difference in FDI flows when this foreign-educated individual becomes a leader. We test this hypothesis empirically with a unique dataset that we constructed from several sources, including the Library of Congress and the World Bank. Our analysis of 40 African countries employs the robust technique of conditional quantile regression. Our results reveal that foreign education is a significant determinant of FDI inflows, beyond other standard characteristics. While intuitive, this result does not necessarily indicate sheepskin effects or superior human capital obtained abroad. Rather, it indicates the powerful role of the social capital, networks, and connections that these leaders built while they were abroad that they in turn mobilize and utilize when they become leaders.
    Keywords: FDI, Leaders' Educational level, return migration, Africa
    JEL: C31 C33 F21 I21
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Bertoli, Simone (European University Institute); Brücker, Herbert (IAB, Nürnberg)
    Abstract: Destination countries are progressively shifting towards selective immigration policies. These can effectively increase migrants' average education even if one allows for endogenous schooling decisions and education policies at origin. Still, more selective immigration policies reduce social welfare at origin.
    Keywords: international migration, selective immigration policies, education policies, social welfare
    JEL: F22 J24 H52
    Date: 2010–12
  5. By: Frédéric Docquier (IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain and FNRS); Luca Marchiori (CREA, University of Luxembourg)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the consequences of increasing MENA-to-EU migration flows on both sending and receiving regions. In the first part of the paper, we characterize the structure of MENA emigration as well as the demographic trends in the EU and MENA. We show that EU27 is a major destination for 9 MENA countries, including Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Potential increased flows of MENA-to-EU migration in the future would in all probability particularly impact these countries. Moreover, replacement migration policies encouraging MENA-to-EU flows of working-age people would need to be temporary, as MENA countries themselves will be facing labor shortages in the future. In the second part of the paper, we analyze the economic effects of increased migration using a general equilibrium model. We find that increasing MENA-to-EU migration would generate significant changes in EU15 tax rates and GNI per capita, smoothing the fiscal and economic burdens of aging. Compared to a non-selective immigration shock, selecting immigrants has a moderate impact in reducing tax rates, but leads to a greater impact on GNI per capita in the EU15. On the other hand, increases in emigration, without some compensating policies on education, would have a strong detrimental impact on MENA tax rates, especially if emigrants are high-skilled. Regarding GNI per capita and inequality in MENA, increasing low-skilled emigration leads to strong improvements (mainly due to remittances) while increasing high-high-skilled emigration induces detrimental consequences. Finally, the negative effects of a more selective migration policy in MENA may be considerably mitigated if the brain drain leads to sideeffects or is accompanied by increased education attainment at origin. In particular, our results suggest that a stronger partnership between EU15 and selected MENA countries, involving more high-skilled migration and a greater cooperation in human capital formation, could raise the welfare of all parties concerned.
    Date: 2010
  6. By: Tsegai, Daniel; Le, Quang Bao
    Abstract: The present study investigates the determinants of inter-district migration flows over the 1995-2000 period in Ghana. A combination of socio-economic, natural and spatial âdistrict-levelâ attributes are considered as potential variables explaining the direction of migration flows. In addition to the ânetâ migration model, âinâ and âoutâ migration models are also employed within the context of the gravity model. Results in the three models consistently show that people move out of districts with less employment and choose districts with high employment rate as destinations. While shorter distance to roads encourages out-migration, districts with better water access seem to attract migrants. Generally, people move out of predominantly agrarian districts to relatively more urbanized districts.
    Keywords: Gross migration, Net migration, Inter-district migration flows, spatial analysis, Ghana, Africa, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2010–12
  7. By: Grady, Patrick
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of immigration on labour productivity in Canada. Immigration is a factor that has been largely ignored in the literature on Canadian productivity growth. A simplified growth accounting approach is utilized to estimate the reduction in labour productivity in Canada (as measured by GDP per worker) that can be attributed to the poor performance of post-1990 cohorts of immigrants in the labour market (as measured by average earnings as reported in the 2006 census). It is estimated that immigration accounts for 2.23 percentage points, or about a fifth, of the 10.96 percentage point post-1990 increase in the Canada-US labour productivity gap.
    Keywords: productivity; recent immigrants to Canada; immigration policy; immigrant labour; human capital
    JEL: O47 J24
    Date: 2010–11–28
  8. By: Lance Howe; Lee Huskey
    Abstract: This paper explores hypotheses of hierarchical migration using data from the Alaskan Arctic. We focus on migration of Iñupiat people, who are indigenous to the region, and explore the role of income, harvests of subsistence resources, and other place characteristics in migration decisions. To test related hypotheses we use confidential micro-data from the US Census Bureau’s 2000 Decennial Census of Population and Income. Using predicted earnings and subsistence along with place invariant characteristics we generate migration probabilities using a mixed multinomial and conditional logit model. Our results support stepwise migration patterns, both up and down an urban and rural hierarchy. At the same time, we also identify differences between men and women, and we find mixed effects of place amenities and predicted earnings.
    Date: 2010–12
  9. By: Michel Beine (University of Luxemburg and CES-Ifo); Frédéric Docquier (FNRS and IRES, Universit´e Catholique de Louvain); Caglar Ozden (DECRG, The World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper reviews the existing literature on the impact of migrants networks on the patterns of international migration. It covers the theo- retical channels at stake in the global effect of the networks. It identifies the key issues, namely the impact on size, selection and concentration of the migration flows. The paper also reviews the empirical hurdles that the researchers face in assessing the importance of networks. The key issues concern the choice of micro vs a macro approach, the definition of a network, the access to suitable data and the adoption of econometric methods accounting for the main features of those data. Finally, the pa- per reports a set of estimation outcomes reflecting the main findings of the macro approach.
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Stark, Oded
    Abstract: In this paper I delineate novel policy repercussions suggested by my research on âThe New Economics of the Brain Drain.â In section 1, I provide a succinct account of the model that inspires the derivation of several new policy implications. In sections 2 through 5, I present the policy implications. I address the following questions: When and how can migration to a country substitute for educational subsidies in that country? Who should be admitted when the receiving country cares about the wellbeing of the unskilled workers who stay behind in the sending country? How and why the incentives to form human capital in the sending country will have a paradoxical effect on the migration policy of the receiving country? How and why will the level of a separating tax imposed by the destination country be reduced by the human capital formation calculus in the sending country? I conclude that the policy implications delineated in the paper illustrate the power and appeal of âThe New Economics of the Brain Drainâ as a framework for rethinking the formation of sound policy responses to migration.
    Keywords: The New Economics of the Brain Drain, Policy formation, Labor and Human Capital, Political Economy,
    Date: 2010–12
  11. By: Fischer, Justina AV
    Abstract: We test whether immigrants are more prone to support terror than natives because of lower opportunity costs, using the international World Values Survey data. We show that, in general, economically, politically and socially non-integrated persons are more likely to accept using violence for achieving political goals, consistent with the economic model of crime. We also find evidence for the destructive effects of a ‘clash of cultures’: Immigrants in OECD countries who originate from more culturally distanced countries in Africa and Asia appear more likely to view using violence for political goals as justified. Most importantly, we find no evidence that the clash-of-cultures effect is driven by Islam religion, which appears irrelevant to terror support. As robustness test we relate individual attitude to real-life behavior: using country panels of transnational terrorist attacks in OECD countries, we show that the population attitudes towards violence and terror determine the occurrence of terror incidents, as does the share of immigrants in the population. A further analysis shows a positive association of immigrants from Africa and Asia with transnational terror, while the majority religion Islam of the sending country does not appear to play a role. Again, we find that culture defined by geographic proximity dominates culture defined by religion.
    Keywords: terror; terrorism; violence; conflict; immigration; culture; integration; crime
    JEL: Z1 D74 O15 H56 K42
    Date: 2010–12–26
  12. By: HARTMANN HIRSCH Claudia
    Abstract: Luxembourg was able to develop, enlarge and improve its corporatist welfare system with Scandinavian standards, creating one of, if not the most substantial regime in the EU/OECD. Several aspects are outstanding: expansion and improvement took place over the last two decades; important reserves for the pension insurance allowed replacement rates being on top within OECD countries; corporatist elements had been reduced in favour of a higher impact of the State; defamilzation took place, thus a significant recalibration. There is no experience of cutbacks or significant cost containment measures leading to losses and a higher responsibility for the insured. The question is, how did Luxembourg manage to increase and improve its welfare offer, while other developed countries have had to cutback since the 1970s? And what was the impact of the financial crisis on welfare policies up to the end of 2009. Luxembourg has the most regulated labour market within OECD, but also the most diversified in terms of migration and cross border movements. Two factors are commonly considered putting welfare systems under pressure: globalisation and ageing effects. Luxembourg avoided the last one via its permanently rejuvenating immigration and cross border movement: age- and family-member-dependency ratios are extremely low for cross border commuters compared to those of residents. The extremely transnationalised labour force might be considered as an implicit „globalising? answer. This small nation-state used its sovereignty taking advantage of the imbrication of national and transnational (EU) law: crossers contribute fully, but are not fully entitled to benefits. Immigration is sometimes considered to be a threat to the sustainability of welfare schemes; in Luxembourg however immigrants and crossers were the main factors for expansion.
    Keywords: Luxembourg?s welfare system; Improvement; expansion; No cutback; Migration; Cross border movement
    Date: 2010–12
  13. By: Manuel Garçon (CEREGMIA, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane); Josselin Garnier (Laboratoire PMA et Jacques-Louis Lions, Université Paris 7); Abdennebi Omrane (CEREGMIA, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane)
    Abstract: We analyze a probability-migration model based on the threshold of average human capital as in H.-J. Chen [1]. The difficult and interesting case is the one where the probability of migration is dependent on current average human capital (the anticipative case). Here, indeterminacy occurs, and one has to study a lot of subcases. In the present article we deeply study new interesting cases and we give a global answer.
    Keywords: Human capital, Education, Migration, Indeterminacy, Economic growth, Threshold human capital, Fixed point, Optimistic and pessimistic mechanisms, Conservative mechanism
    Date: 2010–12
  14. By: Ge, Suqin (Virginia Tech); Yang, Dennis (Chinese University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China.
    Keywords: labor markets, rural-urban migration, wage growth, schooling returns, Lewis turning point, China
    JEL: J31 J21 O11
    Date: 2010–12
  15. By: Joel Perlmann
    Abstract: New data from the IPUMS (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series) project permit an exploration of the demographic basis for ethnic survival across successive generations. I first explore the degree of ethnic blending among the grandchildren of early- to mid-19th-century German immigrants; second, these descendants' own marital choices; and third, the likely composition of the fourth generation to which they would give birth. Fundamental questions include: How high is the rate of single versus mixed origins after so many generations in America? How large an absolute number of single-origin individuals remain (given the combined impact of out-marriage, on the one hand, and cumulative fertility, on the other)? How much less likely are single-origin individuals of the third generation to in-marry relative to those in the second generation? And how do all these patterns differ across 31,000 local geographic areas? I exploit the full-count 1880 Census dataset and the Linked Representative Sample, which captures males in 1880 as well as in one of the 1900–30 enumerations. Limiting attention to those who were adolescents in 1880, we have three generations’ worth of ethnic information on each sample member traced across time (birthplace as well as parents' and grandparents' birthplaces, from their parents' responses) and ethnic information covering two generations for the women they eventually married.
    Date: 2010–12
  16. By: Klaus Desmet (Universidad Carlos III); Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a simple theory of a system of cities that decomposes the determinants of the city size distribution into three main components: efficiency, amenities, and frictions. Higher efficiency and better amenities lead to larger cities, but also to greater frictions through congestion and other negative effects of agglomeration. Using data on MSAs in the United States, we parametrize the model and empirically estimate efficiency, amenities and frictions. Counterfactual exercises show that all three characteristics are important in that eliminating any of them leads to large population reallocations, though the welfare effects from these reallocations are small. Overall, we find that the gains from worker mobility across cities are modest. When allowing for externalities, we find an important city selection effect: eliminating differences in any of the city characteristics causes many cities to exit. We apply the same methodology to Chinese cities and find welfare effects that are many times larger than in the U.S.
    Date: 2010–12–21
  17. By: Constant, Amelie F. (DIW DC, George Washington University); Krause, Annabelle (IZA); Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the economic effects of risk attitudes, time preferences, trust and reciprocity while we compare natives and second generation migrants. We analyze an inflow sample into unemployment in Germany, and find differences between the two groups mainly in terms of risk attitudes and positive reciprocity. Second generation migrants have a significantly higher willingness to take risks and they are less likely to have a low amount of positive reciprocity when compared to natives. We also find that these differences matter in terms of economic outcomes, and more specifically in terms of the employment probability about two months after unemployment entry. We observe a significantly lower employment probability for individuals with a high willingness to take risks. Some evidence suggests that this result is channeled through reservation wages and search intensity.
    Keywords: unemployment, migration, personality traits, risk attitudes, time preferences, trust, reciprocity
    JEL: F22 J15 J61 J64
    Date: 2010–12
  18. By: Constant, Amelie F. (DIW DC, George Washington University); Krause, Annabelle (IZA); Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the reservation wages of first and second generation migrants. Based on recently collected and rich survey data of a representative inflow sample into unemployment in Germany, we empirically test the hypothesis that reservation wages increase from first to second generation migrants. Two extensions of the basic job search model, namely an unknown wage offer distribution and different reference standards, provide theoretical justifications for this conjecture. In both extensions, changing frames of reference are identified as a channel through which the phenomenon of increasing reservation wages may arise. In as far as language skills or self-evaluated returns to characteristics reflect a person's frames of reference, we find empirical support for this mechanism to be present.
    Keywords: migration, ethnic identity, ethnosizer, Germany, unemployment, job search, reservation wages
    JEL: F22 J15 J61 J64
    Date: 2010–12
  19. By: Kahanec, Martin (Central European University and IZA); Zaiceva, Anzelika (IZA and University of Bologna); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on the labor market situation of ethnic minorities in the European Union. Facing a serious measurement challenge and lacking adequate data, we apply several measures of ethnicity and examine various data sources as well as secondary evidence. We find significant gaps between ethnic minority and majority populations in terms of labor market outcomes. In particular, ethnic minorities appear to face disproportional difficulties in finding a job. Although experience in the host country improves the status of immigrant minorities, we do not find any clear assimilation of further immigrant generations. Roma people seem to face particularly grave integration barriers in European labor markets.
    Keywords: labor force participation, unemployment, migration, ethnic minority, ethnicity, labor market
    JEL: F22 J15 J61 J71
    Date: 2010–12
  20. By: Constant, Amelie F. (DIW DC, George Washington University); Kahanec, Martin (Central European University and IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)
    Abstract: The standard approach of analyzing gaps in social and labor market outcomes of different ethnic groups relies on analysis of statistical data about the affected groups. In this paper we go beyond this approach by measuring the views of expert stakeholders involved in minority integration. This enables us to better understand the risk of minority exclusion; the inner nature of discrimination, negative attitudes and internal barriers; as well as the ethnic minorities' desires and perceptions about which approaches are better than others in dealing with integration challenges. Main findings are that ethnic minorities do want to change their situation, especially in terms of employment, education, housing and attitudes towards them. Insufficient knowledge of the official language, insufficient education, discriminatory attitudes and behavior towards ethnic minorities as well as institutional barriers, such as citizenship or legal restrictions, seem to constitute the key barriers to their social and labor market integration.
    Keywords: ethnic minorities, immigrants, opinions, attitudes, labor market
    JEL: J15 J71 J78
    Date: 2010–12
  21. By: Kahanec, Martin (Central European University and IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)
    Abstract: The social and labor market integration of ethnic minorities in the EU is still a major political, societal and economic challenge. Based on evidence presented in Kahanec and Zimmermann (2011), this policy paper proposes an agenda for diversity and minority integration in the European labor markets. Policies to foster the labor market and social integration of ethnic majorities can work. But they need to involve all stakeholders, including all levels of government, public and private sectors, as well as civil society organizations, combine general and targeted action in a balanced, complementary and reinforcing way, respond to the needs of the affected groups and provide open access to people from diverse ethnic backgrounds, and be persistent and allow for time to become effective. Identification and transfer of good practices is essential.
    Keywords: immigrants, ethnic minority, integration, diversity, labor market, diversity management, integration policy
    JEL: J15 J71 J78
    Date: 2010–12
  22. By: Laetitia Duval (GERCIE - Groupe d'Etudes et de Recherche sur la Coopération Internationale et Européenne - Université François Rabelais - Tours); François-Charles Wolff (INED - Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques Paris - INED, LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the role of remittances on financial expectations in Albania using longitudinal data covering the period 2002-2004. To study the dynamics of income satisfaction at the household level, we use subjective data on past, current and future financial situations and estimate random and fixed effect ordered Probit models. We find that households are more optimistic about the future when they have experienced an improvement in their financial situation in the past and when they have received private transfers from foreign countries.
    Keywords: Albania; Income expectations: Longitudinal data; Remittances
    Date: 2010–12–14
  23. By: Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Yaşar, Pınar (State Planning Organization)
    Abstract: This study estimates a Keynesian simultaneous, dynamic macroeconometric model to investigate the impact of remittances on key macro variables such as consumption, investment, imports and income in Turkey. The estimated impact and dynamic multipliers indicate that impact of remittances on consumption, imports and income are all positive and reduce gradually while that on investment wears out in the second year. The impact multiplier for income implies a substantial increase in income due to remittances through the multiplier process. The remittances-induced output growth rate is highest during the early 1970s and the early 1980s, but negligible during the other years.
    Keywords: dynamic model, remittances-induced output growth, remittances
    JEL: F22 F21 C52
    Date: 2010–12
  24. By: Adolfo Barajas; Ralph Chami; Dalia Hakura; Peter Montiel
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of workers’ remittances on equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) in recipient economies. Using a small open economy model, it shows that standard "Dutch Disease" results of appreciation are substantially weakened or even overturned depending on: degree of openness; factor mobility between domestic sectors; counter cyclicality of remittances; the share of consumption in tradables; and the sensitivity of a country’s risk premium to remittance flows. Panel cointegration techniques on a large set of countries provide support for these analytical results, and show that ERER appreciation in response to sustained remittance flows tends to be quantitatively small.
    Keywords: Capital inflows , Developing countries , Economic models , Exchange rate appreciation , Low-income developing countries , Real effective exchange rates , Workers remittances ,
    Date: 2010–12–10
  25. By: Tausch, Arno
    Abstract: The present article presents at first a German language summary about recent quantitative studies by the author and his associates about global development since the end of Communism in up to 175 nations of the world, using 26 predictor variables to evaluate the determinants of 30 processes of development on a global scale. • As correctly predicted by quantitative dependency and world system research of the 1980s and 1990s, core capital penetration (MNC penetration) has very significant negative impacts on the social development of the host countries of foreign direct investments; but these negative effects are mitigated by the positive effects of MNC headquarter status. MNC penetration increases income polarization and infant mortality, and blocks democracy, desired environmental performance, and the rule of law. Increases in MNC penetration over time had a negative effect on the rule of law, and equally had a negative effect on economic growth in the period 1990-2005. A good and plausible reason for this is the process of ‘creative destruction’ in the less fortunate regions of the world economy, and partially also in several regions of East and Central Europe. Exactly 50 results from our multiple regressions, explaining 30 process variables, are significant at least at the 10% level. However, of the 50 results, 20, i.e. 40%, did not conform to the theoretical explanations, offered by the mainstream of globalization critical research. Seventeen of the 20 contradicting results stem from just three weak dimensions of the globalization critical paradigm – (i) the insufficient understanding of the role of economic freedom, especially in advanced countries, (ii) the inability to comprehend existing problems in the areas of democracy and tolerance, gender equality, and employment in the ‘real existing Muslim countries’ and in the parallel worlds of Muslim ‘diasporas’ and finally (iii) the inability to formulate a proper framework of the interaction between the public and the private, especially in higher education. Four of these contradicting results stem from the positive effects of Economic Freedom on development, and eight contradictions stem from the negative effects of membership in the Organization of the Islamic Conference or from Muslim population shares on such phenomena as democracy and tolerance, gender equality, and employment. The remaining five contradictions stem from the fact that different development theories, including the globalization critical development consensus, overlook the crowding-out of public education expenditures on employment, growth, and human development. We also have to concede that the understanding of globalization critical research of the global migration process is rather deficient. We can reasonably assume that the import of labor to the world economy, measured by the reciprocal value of the worker remittances scale has – ceteris paribus - detrimental effects on life quality (Happy Planet Index, life expectancy, life satisfaction, Happy Life Years), and gender relations (closing the political gender gap; closing the overall gender gap). The percentage of the population with what today is called an ‘immigration background’ also has – ceteris paribus – a negative effect on some other key indicators of the environment and gender justice. Immigration, and all the transport activities it causes, increases, without question, the CO2 output of a given society, and it also increases the ratio of carbon emissions per GDP. But ceteris paribus, there hold other important effects as well, which by contrast tend to confirm the migration policy liberal Consensus, inherent in the UNDP HDR 2009 analysis. Yes, there are not only Hiob’s messages for inward migration, but the process is a very contradictory one. Yes, the share of people with migration background per total population seems to coincide with a weakening of the role of traditional, local, native elites, and income inequality even tends to be lower due to the effects of this variable. Also, migration phobias and migration pessimism are contradicted in another very important way: there is no significant effect of any migration variable on the unemployment rate. Liberals are right in assuming that inward migration is a driver of economic growth: net international migration rates, 2005-2010, which are a typical migration flow measure, relating to current and contemporary migration flows, are significantly and positively influencing current economic growth rates, and also the ratio of closing the political gender gap. While stocks of already existing, large-scale migrant populations negative affect the closing of the gender political gap to the tune of -0.225, which is significant at the 2.6% level, new inflows, which are best measured by the net international migration rate, positively affect the closing of the political gender gap to the tune of 0.208, which is significant only at the 8.3% level. Under these circumstances, the management of the global migration process becomes one of the most important phenomena to handle, politically. With one of the most glaring problems of the international migration scene - especially in Europe - probably is the fact that in many countries of origin of migration blockades against religious tolerance prevail. Not ‘Islam’ as such is the problem in this wider context, but the combination of regionally or nationally dominant roles of denominations in a socio-cultural milieu of the periphery or semi-periphery of the world system. In addition, migration unfortunately exports a relatively strong materialist, and no post-materialistic value system, which is still in favor of economic growth and not on favor of the environment, if competing interests should occur. All this suggests that on the political left, the so-called new social movements of environmentalism and feminism of the 1980s and the contemporary civil society movements for religious and ecumenical tolerance could be weakened further by the process of immigration, and the growth of pessimist attitudes on migration will continue. In the article, we also analyze current trends and data on Austrian migration as a case study. One of the reasons for growing social divergence of Austrian society is a more and more ethnically and socio-religiously defined unemployment. A further evaluation of these trends is based on a special analysis of data from Statistics Austria on marriage patterns. Among the Muslim Religious Community, tendencies to marry only fellow members of the religious community have continued to increase since 2003 and nowadays are 90.4% of Muslim women getting married, while for the Protestants, comparable in relative community size, this percentage is only 18%. The newly available analytical statistics by the Ministry of Interior/Integration Fund now fully document crime rates by age and nationality. Without question, the 18-21-year-old is generally the most susceptible one for criminal careers. For native Austrians among this age group, the crime rate is only 1.5%, for Turks it is over 2%, for the citizens of former Yugoslavia without Slovenia it’s 3%, for the citizens of new EU Member States it is more than 5% and for immigrants from other states, including the former USSR, and the entire rest of the world, it is 6%. OECD data allow also an estimate about the already existing divide between native Austrians without an immigration background and Austrians with an immigration background concerning the rates of people not having any professional qualifications, without current employment and also not currently undergoing any training among the 20-29-year-old. Only about 2% of native Austrian men of that age are in this category, while for people with an immigration background, this proportion exceeded 10%. Among women of the same age, the corresponding gap is 3% to 14%. In the article, we also document evidence of a more and more geographically-socially determined pattern of the domains of crime. The reported statistics show that in Austria, nationals from Romania and Bulgaria, the former USSR (including Chechnya) and other ‘third countries’ already account for 21.62% of all murders, although this group represents only 3.74% of the resident population. There are also some very telling figures about the dire social state of affairs for Austria’s Turkish Community: Turkish students make up 1.7% of all students in Austrian schools, but only 0.4% of the students of upper secondary education. But the Turkish share among convicted rapists is 7.96%, and it is 5.41% of all convicted murderers, and 4.95% of people convicted for bodily injury etc., while the Turkish total resident population share is only 1.33%. In fact, recent OECD PISA reading ability results for Turks in Austria and for people from a Turkish immigration background, just as the ones for Albanians in Switzerland, are at the aggregate level of developing countries. In the OECD, there are indeed contrasting patterns of immigration and education policy. In the article, we specifically mention the best practice case of Australia, where children of immigrants to that country from the UK, Korea, the USA, and China achieve some of the best global results. With an average national reading scale of 465.89 the native population in Turkey achieves better results than any Turkish immigrant community in Europe, and in fact is not too different from the value of 481.84, achieved by native Austrian children without an immigration background. We thus emphatically contradict current islamophobic interpretations in the tradition of Mr. Thilo Sarrazin, currently very much en vogue in Germany, and show that not ‘Turks are the problem’ and also not ‘Islam is the problem’, but the low linguistic competence among many Turkish immigrants from eastern Anatolia, who never had a chance to properly study in the course of their lives neither the Turkish state language nor the widely used Kurdish language of their home region let alone the written language of the host country. There are also considerable differences between low PISA reading scores for many of the OECD immigrant groups abroad and high PISA reading scores in the home countries of the migrants concerned, such as in Poland, Korea, Italy, and Portugal. In all these countries - like in Turkey - the home country already achieves better national results than the migrant communities from these countries abroad. Blue-collar migration from poor and rural regions of countries like Italy, Korea, Poland, Portugal and Turkey well explains such phenomena. Conversely, we find clear evidence of a real ‘brain drain’ from Austria, the UK, Albania, France, Brazil, Germany and Russia, where migrants abroad, as a rule, achieved better OECD PISA reading ability test results than in their country of origin. With Portuguese investments in education but U.S. immigration rates the current Austrian immigration model reached certain limits.
    Keywords: International Relations and International Political Economy; International Migration JEL Classification Numbers: F5; F22
    JEL: F22 F50
    Date: 2010–12–22
  26. By: Ulf Rinne; Simone Schüller; Klaus F. Zimmermann
    Abstract: Das ökonomische Potenzial ethnischer und kultureller Vielfalt wird häufig verkannt. Die Ergebnisse neuerer Studien, die in diesem Beitrag zusammengefasst werden, zeigen jedoch, dass sich "weiche" Faktoren wie etwa Einstellungen, Wahrnehmungen und Identitäten, hier insbesondere ethnische Identitäten, wesentlich auf ökonomische Ergebnisse auswirken können. Dies geht sowohl aus Analysen des Prozesses kultureller Integration in einer generationenübergreifenden Perspektive als auch aus Untersuchungen der Arbeitsplatzsuche und der Wiedereingliederung von Arbeitslosen in den Arbeitsmarkt hervor. Eine Volkswirtschaft kann sich durch eine geeignete Beachtung und Einbeziehung multi-ethnischer Faktoren ökonomisch besser stellen. Kulturelle und ethnische Assimilation von Zuwanderern ist deshalb keine alleinige oder dominante Strategie der ökonomisch erfolgreichen Einbindung in die Aufnahmegesellschaft. Neben einer besseren Aktivierung der Integrationspotenziale bei Personen mit Migrationshintergrund ist auch eine kulturelle oder ethnische Öffnung der Einheimischen sinnvoll.
    Keywords: Migration; Ethnicity; Ethnic Identity; Labor Market Success
    JEL: F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2010
  27. By: Ghita, Eugen
    Abstract: After the peace of Karlovitz, the Mureş River became the official border between the two great empires: the Habsburg and the Ottoman Empire. In this context was organized the military border Tisa-Mureş, and the first called to defend the region were the Serbs, recognized for their military skills. The authorities created the first militarized localities in the county of Arad simultaneously with the first arrival of Serb immigrants in this region. Their presence in the city of Arad and other settlements located on the right bank of the Mureş River changed the ethnic proportions in these areas. The situation modified after Banat was conquered by Austrians and after the abolishment of the Tisa-Mureş military border. Most Serbs emigrated to the south of Mureş River and even in Russia, their share in the city and county of Arad decreasing significantly after the mid eighteenth century.
    Keywords: Arad county; Serbs immigrants; eighteenth century; demography.
    JEL: J10
    Date: 2010–12
  28. By: FLEURY Charles
    Abstract: Le présent document vise à savoir s’il est possible d’étudier le parcours de vie des différentes cohortes au Luxembourg au moyen de la méthode de l’analyse par cohorte. Il se divise en trois parties principales. Dans la première, nous précisons ce que nous entendons par cohorte, effet de cohorte et analyse par cohorte. Dans la deuxième partie, nous cherchons à savoir si l’analyse par cohorte est possible au Luxembourg. En utilisant les données des recensements luxembourgeois (1991 et 2001) ainsi que les estimations de la population pour 1999 et 2008, nous montrons que cette méthode peut difficilement convenir pour étudier des populations qui se caractérisent par d’importants mouvements migratoires. Nous examinons ensuite la possibilité de procéder à ce type d’analyse auprès de la population composée de personnes ayant la nationalité luxembourgeoise. Utilisant pour ce faire les données luxembourgeoises de l’European Values Study (EVS) de 1999 et 2008, nous montrons qu’il ne suffit pas d’examiner des populations similaires pour pouvoir procéder à des analyses par cohorte, mais qu’il est également nécessaire que les méthodes d’échantillonnage soient similaires. La troisième partie interroge pour sa part la validité des deux vagues luxembourgeoises de l’enquête EVS
    Keywords: analyse par cohorte ; immigration; méthodologie; European Values Study ; Luxembourg
    Date: 2010–12

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