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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Fernando Ferreira; Joseph Gyourko; Joseph Tracy |
| Abstract: | Using two decades of American Housing Survey data from 1985 to 2005, we estimate the influence of negative home equity and rising mortgage interest rates on household mobility. We find that both factors lead to lower, not higher, mobility rates over time. The effects are economically large -- mobility is almost 50 percent lower for owners with negative equity in their homes. This finding does not imply that current concerns over defaults and homeowners having to relocate are entirely misplaced. It does indicate that, in the past, the mortgage lock-in effects of these two factors were dominant over time. Policymakers may wish to begin considering the consequences of mortgage lock-in and reduced household mobility because they are quite different from the consequences associated with default and higher mobility. |
| Keywords: | Housing - Finance ; Mortgages ; Households ; Home ownership |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:350&r=mig |
| By: | Katrina Mullan (University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy); Pauline Grosjean (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California); Andreas Kontoleon (University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impacts of the Chinese Household Responsibility System, which governs rural land tenure, on rural-urban migration. Migration in China has traditionally been limited by the hukou system of household registration, under which individuals who wish to change their place of residence must gain approval from government authorities. This system is currently being relaxed in an attempt to reduce inequalities between rural and urban areas. However, migration will not increase if additional constraints remain for potential migrants. Using a model of the relationship between land tenure arrangements and migration of household members, we examine whether those with greater tenure security and formal rental rights for agricultural or forest land are more likely to participate in labour markets outside the village. The finding that greater tenure security increases migration suggests that the current system of property rights, in which land is periodically reallocated, acts as a constraint on migration. This strengthens the case for further tenure reform for agricultural and forest land. |
| Keywords: | Land tenure security; land rental rights, rural-urban migration, China |
| JEL: | J61 O15 P32 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lnd:wpaper:200837&r=mig |
| By: | Huffman, Wallace |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to examine how the likely growth in the ethanol industry over the next decade will impact U.S. labor markets, especially migrant crop labor, which is largely immigrant labor. To build the background for making projections for 2008-2010 and beyond, the paper reviews and critiques: (i) the size and composition of the U.S. farm labor market, (ii) the demographics and wage of hired farm workers, (iii) the supply of farm workers, and (iv) the factors affecting the demand for farm labor, including new technologies. The final section provides some projections for agricultural labor markets, taking account not only of likely trends in energy prices but also new technologies that will affect labor demand in the future. |
| Keywords: | food prices, energy prices, migrant labor, immigrant labor, agricultural labor, labor intensive agriculture, agricultural technologies |
| JEL: | J2 O3 Q1 |
| Date: | 2008–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:13000&r=mig |
| By: | Bernard Decaluwé (Université Laval - Département d'Economie); Fida Karam (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Recently, much research interest is directed towards the impact of migration on the sending country. However, we think that this literature does not successfully analyse the effects of migration on unemployment and wage rates especially in urban areas. It studies the effect of one king of migration flow, mainly international migration, on labour market in the country of origin and shows that international migration is able to reduce the unemployment rate and/or raise the wage rates. However, it is common to find labour markets affected simultaneously by inflows and outflows of workers. Using a detailed CGE model applied to the Moroccan economy, we show that if we take simultaneously into account Moroccan emigration to the European Union, immigration from Sub-Saharan Africa into Moroccan urban areas and rural-urban migration, the impact on Moroccan urban labour market disaggregated by professional categories is ambiguous. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect labor market, migration, computable general equilibrium model. |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:paris1:halshs-00331322_v1&r=mig |
| By: | Alexander M. Danzer; Hulya Ulku |
| Abstract: | Using a new data on 590 Turkish households in Berlin, we investigate the determinants and impact of integration on economic performance. We find that usual suspects such as time spent in Germany and education have positive impact, while networks have no impact on integration. There is strong evidence that political integration and the degree of full integration promote income. Using endogenous switching regression models, we show that local familial networks increase the income of unintegrated migrant groups only, while transnational networks decrease it. We also find that education is more welfare improving for integrated than non-integrated immigrants. |
| Keywords: | integration, economic success, ethnic networks, Turkish migrants |
| JEL: | O15 J15 C25 D10 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp833&r=mig |
| By: | Fabio Mariani (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at explaining why countries with comparable levels of education still experience notable differences in terms of R&D and innovation. High-skilled migration, ultimately linked to differences in R&D costs, might be responsible for the persistence of such a gap. In fact, in a model where human capital accumulation and innovation are strategic complements, we show that allowing labor outflows may strengthen educational incentives in the lagging economy if migration is probabilistic in nature, but at the same time reduces the share of innovative production. Income (growth) might be consequently affected, and a positive migration chance is very unlikely to act as a substitute for educational subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Education; Brain drain. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:paris1:halshs-00308746_v1&r=mig |
| By: | Larry Sawers; Eileen Stillwaggon |
| Abstract: | Background: Adult HIV prevalence in the nine countries of southern Africa averages more than 16 times the prevalence in other low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies argue that the intensity of the HIV epidemic in southern Africa results from regional characteristics, such as apartheid labor regulations and regional mineral wealth, which contributed to circular migration patterns and highly skewed income distribution. The present study also emphasizes the importance of cofactor diseases, which are suspected of raising HIV prevalence by increasing HIV viral load in infected persons or by making uninfected persons more vulnerable to HIV infection through lower immunity or genital lesions and/or inflammation. Method: the study uses multiple regression analysis on country-level data with HIV prevalence as the dependent variable. Regressors are ten socio-economic variables used in most previous cross-national analyses of HIV, two measures of cross-border migration, and measures of six cofactor infections. Results: The 10 socio-economic variables “explain” statistically only 25% of the difference in HIV prevalence between southern Africa and other low- and middle-income countries, but adding the four cofactor infection variables to the model allows us to “explain” 80% of the southern Africa difference in HIV prevalence. Conclusion: The relative affluence of southern Africa and historical migration patterns have tended to mask the vulnerability of the majority of the population who are poor and who have very high prevalence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Those diseases replicate a cycle of poverty that can lead not just to social vulnerability to HIV through risky behaviors but also to biological vulnerability through coinfections. An important implication of this research is that integrating treatment of endemic diseases with other HIVprevention policies may be necessary to slow the spread of HIV. Treatment of cofactor infections is a lowcost, policy-sensitive, high-impact variable. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:1108&r=mig |
| By: | Ceyhun Bora Durdu; Serdar Sayan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and Sudden Stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen the business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. Our findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for Sudden Stops. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:946&r=mig |
| By: | Jan M. Hoem (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Lesia Nedoluzhko (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In studies of differences in fertility between migrants and non-migrants, marriage interferes because migration can be motivated by an impending marriage or can entail entry into a marriage market with new opportunities. One would therefore expect elevated fertility after migration, although a competing theory states that on the contrary fertility ought to be reduced in the time around the move because migration temporarily disturbs the life of the migrant. In any case marriage appears as a process that is intermediary between migration and childbearing. To handle such issues it pays to have a technique that allows the analyst to separate any disruptive effects of migration from any boosting effects of marriage in studies of childbearing. The purposes of the present paper is (i) to remind us that such a technique is available, in fact is straightforward, and (ii) to apply the technique to further analyze a set of data on migration and first-time parenthood in Kyrgyzstan recently used by the second author and Gunnar Andersson. The technique has the neat feature that it allows us to operate with several “clocks” at the same time. In the analysis of first births we keep track of time since migration (for migrants) and time since marriage formation (for the married) beside the respondent’s age (for women at childbearing ages); in other connections there may be more clocks. For such analyses we make use of a flexible graphical housekeeping device that allows the analyst to keep track of a feature like whether migration occurs before or after marriage, or at the same time. This is a half-century-old flow chart of statuses and transitions and is not much more complex that the famous Lexis diagram, which originated with Gustav Zeuner, as we now know. These reflexions were first presented at a symposium dedicated to Professor Zeuner. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-015&r=mig |
| By: | Annett Fleischer (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Restrictive immigration and integration policies in Germany increasingly force African migrants to develop strategies and practices to acquire legal residence and obtain an essential work permit. Our account of Cameroonian men in Germany contributes to the discussion about the role of the nation state in transnational migration processes. Since national policies in the receiving country determine the right to settle and the risk of expulsion, the German nation state plays a decisive role for African migrants. The present paper emphasises the impact of national migration policies on Cameroonian men’s marriage strategies. Diminishing options for legalising their status in Germany by other means make Cameroonians increasingly dependent on sustaining a three-year marriage to a German wife. Mainly based on extensive ethnographic fieldwork in Cameroon and Germany, the present article explores the distribution of marriage over space and time as a means of securing the right to work and stay in Germany. |
| Keywords: | Cameroon, Germany, international migration, marriage |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-006&r=mig |
| By: | Fida Karam (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) |
| Abstract: | Specialists of migration and its development impact gave little attention to the sectoral allocation of remittances invested. This is an interesting topic especially when remittances by destination of developing countries are invested in real estate. Putting aside this fact overestimates the volume of investment in the most productive sectors and creates an illusion of a sustainable growth. Besides, unlike the best part of the literature that focuses on the household impact of remittances, a CGE approach is necessary in order to model the linkages that transmit the influence of migration to other households and sectors. This specific investment of remittances in the real estate sector is taken in consideration in our CGE model by allowing a segmentation of the saving market. This is the main contribution of our paper. We apply this study to Morocco, a country largely dependent on remittances. Furthermore, the literature on Morocco is limited to unpublished reports and surveys. We particularly investigate the impact of immigration restrictive policies and permanent migration on the future evolution of remittances. We then ask what would be the appropriate policies to take the maximum profit from current flows. We find that public policies that diminish the country risk premium in favour of domestic and foreign investors and the reduction of transfer costs are the most favourable in term of economic growth and welfare. The increase in the proportion of remittances invested in productive sectors is unexpectedly harmful. |
| Keywords: | Sequential Dynamics; Computable general equilibrium model; Migration; Remittances. |
| Date: | 2008–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:paris1:hal-00304885_v1&r=mig |
| By: | Fernando Rios Avila; Eva Schlarb |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries, the formal financial sector is underdeveloped and majority of the population does not have access to it. This paper analyzes the empirical link between remittances and financial sector development on a microeconomic level. Using a unique household dataset for Moldova, we find that receiving monetary remittances has a positive and significant effect on the probability of having a bank account, thereby promoting financial sector development. Furthermore, we show that remittances tend to have an even higher positive effect on household savings, which is a sign for a hidden potential for financial sector development. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieasw:448&r=mig |
| By: | Caroline Bledsoe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Papa Sow (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | - |
| Keywords: | family, migration |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-001&r=mig |
| By: | Seidel, Tobias; Egger, Peter H.; Becker, Sascha O. |
| Abstract: | When estimating the determinants of perceived corruption, economists assumed that there is full independence across countries. In the presence of peer-group or learning effects through cross-border economic activity (such as trade or labor migration), this assumption might be violated. We provide evidence that this is the case. Using a cross-section of 123 economies for the year 2000, we illustrate that corruption in one country spills over to adjacent economies. This finding implies that institutional changes reducing corruption in one country lead to smaller but qualitatively similar effects in neighboring countries. |
| Keywords: | Spatial econometrics; Institutions; Perceived corruption |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stl:stledp:2008-09&r=mig |
| By: | Libertad González; Francesc Ortega |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from 4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population), immigration increased the high school dropout population by 24%, while only increasing the number of college graduates by 11%. We study the different channels by which regional labor markets have absorbed the large increase in the relative supply of low educated (foreign-born) workers. We identify the exogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin. Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion of employment in high immigration regions. Specifically, most industries in high-immigration regions experienced a large increase in the share of low-education employment. We do not find an effect on regions’ sectoral specialization. Overall, and perhaps surprisingly, Spanish regions have absorbed immigration flows in the same fashion as US local economies. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdacee:06-08&r=mig |